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At least 55 records · Page 3

Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events are associated with changing environmental means. Such events are important in human affairs, and can also be investigated by orbital remote sensing. During the course of this project, we applied ERS-1, ERS-2, Radarsat, and an airborne sensor (AIRSAR-TOPSAR) to measure flood extents, flood water surface profiles, and flood depths. We established a World Wide Web site (the Dartmouth Flood Observatory) for publishing remote sensing-based maps of contemporary floods worldwide; this is also an online "active archive" that presently constitutes the only global compilation of extreme flood events. We prepared an article for EOS concerning SAR imaging of the Mississippi Valley flood; an article for the International Journal of Remote Sensing on measurement of a river flood wave using ERS-2, began work on an article (since completed and published) on the Flood Observatory for a Geoscience Information Society Proceedings volume, and presented lectures at several Geol. Soc. of America Natl. Meetings, an Assoc. of Amer. Geographers Natl. Meeting, and a Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium (all on SAR remote sensing of the Mississippi Valley flood). We expanded in-house modeling capabilities by installing the latest version of the Army Corps of Engineers RMA two-dimensional hydraulics software and BYU Engineering Graphics Lab's Surface Water Modeling System (finite elements based pre- and post-processors for RMA work) and also added watershed modeling software. We are presently comparing the results of the 2-d flow models with SAR image data. The grant also supported several important upgrades of pc-based remote sensing infrastructure at Dartmouth. During work on this grant, we collaborated with several workers at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Remote Sensing/GIS laboratory (for flood inundation mapping and modeling; particularly of the Illinois River using the AIRSAR/TOPSAR/ERS-2 combined data), with Dr. Karen Prestegaard at the University of Maryland (geomorphological responses to the extreme 1993 flood along the Raccoon drainage in central Iowa), and with Mr Tim Scrom of the Albany National Weather Service River Forecast Center (initial planning for the use of Radarsat and ERS-2 for flood warning). The work thus initiated with this proposal is continuing.

Brakenridge, G. Robert↗

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

Eunsang Cho↗

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Interannual Variability of the Mosaic Land-Surface Model

Recently, NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) reanalysis data has been used to provide forcing for the Koster and Suarez Mosaic Land-surface Model (LSM). The LSM was integrated off-line at all global land points for the period of 1983 - 1995 by the Off-line Land- surface GEOS Assimilation system (OLGA). Here, we compare the interannual variability of OLGA, GEOS-1 and surface observing stations temperature and moisture. Particular attention is given to the United States because of the extreme seasons of 1988 and 1993. Furthermore, the comparison of OLGA is extended to include the analysis of data on the'tiles' (different surface types) in the Mosaic LSM. Results indicate that the GEOS-1 near-surface temperature and moisture reasonably represents the interannual variability in more normal years. However, OLGA also simulates the extreme drought and floods years well. The analysis of the tile information shows that the "Bare soil" surface type is most sensitive to the climate extremes. Off-line testing has provided valuable information on the performance of the Mosaic LSM prior to its incorporation into the new version of the GEOS Data Assimilation System and the integration of a new long reanalysis.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Vegetation Greening Mitigates the Impacts of Increasing Extreme Rainfall on Runoff Events

Future flood risk assessment has primarily focused on heavy rainfall as the main driver, with the assumption that projected increases in extreme rain events will lead to subsequent flooding. However, the presence of and changes in vegetation have long been known to influence the relationship between rainfall and runoff. Here, we extract historical (1850–1880) and projected (2070–2100) daily extreme rainfall events, the corresponding runoff, and antecedent conditions simulated in a prominent large Earth system model ensemble to examine the shifting extreme rainfall and runoff relationship. Even with widespread projected increases in the magnitude (78% of the land surface) and number (72%) of extreme rainfall events, we find projected declines in event-based runoff ratio (runoff/rainfall) for a majority (57%) of the Earth surface. Runoff ratio declines are linked with decreases in antecedent soil water driven by greater transpiration and canopy evaporation (both linked to vegetation greening) compared to areas with runoff ratio increases. Using a machine learning regression tree approach, we find that changes in canopy evaporation is the most important variable related to changes in antecedent soil water content in areas of decreased runoff ratios (with minimal changes in antecedent rainfall) while antecedent ground evaporation is the most important variable in areas of increased runoff ratios. Our results suggest that simulated interactions between vegetation greening, increasing evaporative demand, and antecedent soil drying are projected to diminish runoff associated with extreme rainfall events, with important implications for society.

soil moisture↗

Utilizing Open-Source Earth Observations to Inform the Toa Baja Municipality’s Flood Risk Mitigation Efforts and Educate the Public

Global climate changes contribute to more intense and frequent tropical storms, subjecting places like Toa Baja, Puerto Rico to critical damage. Known as “the underwater city” due to its propensity to flood, residents of Toa Baja face constant flood risk. During extreme tropical storm events, such as Hurricane Maria in 2017, residents experienced up to 20 feet of inundation. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the Municipio Autónomo de Toa Baja, ResilientSEE-PR, and the MIT Urban Risk Lab to supplement 2018 FEMA HEC-RAS flood maps that designate 63% of Toa Baja as a flood plain. This analysis provides a high-resolution interpretation of flood risk through two lenses; susceptibility and vulnerability. For this analysis, susceptibility consists of nine weighted layers: NDVI, landcover, slope, elevation, topographic wetness index, height above nearest drainage, saturated hydraulic conductivity, distance to water, and storm surge. These factors are consistently used to evaluate susceptibility to flood, but their weights vary by analysis. Vulnerability consists of population, informal settlements, and building density, which were given equal weight. Susceptibility and vulnerability were combined to map flood risk. This analysis used a bivariate legend to understand the different levels of risk along a spectrum from low susceptibility and low vulnerability (low risk) to high susceptibility and high vulnerability (high risk). Data processed in Google Earth Engine, which identified historical inundation on various occasions, were used to validate the flood susceptibility layers. Results showed 89% of areas designated as high susceptibility are located within the floodway designated by the FEMA HEC-RAS maps. The eastern region of Toa Baja is most at risk for flooding due to high susceptibility to flooding along with a high density of population, buildings, and informal settlements. The resulting map also reveals the presence of smaller high-risk areas all around the municipality. This analysis provides scientific evidence for flood risk mitigation in Toa Baja by highlighting areas that might be impacted by strong floods in the future. Additionally, these results are communicated in an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, an accessible platform that can easily inform the public about the flood risk in their neighborhood.

Adriana Le Compte↗

Central California Disasters: Incorporating Satellite-Derived Precipitation and Soil Moisture Products into Flood Preparedness and Emergency Management in California

Atmospheric rivers are a major contributor to extreme precipitation events and flooding in California. This study assessed the feasibility of using Earth observation data to monitor precipitation, soil moisture, and flooding from atmospheric rivers in the Salinas River Watershed in central California during the winter of 2022-2023. The team analyzed satellite derived precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive radiometer, and synthetic aperture radar imagery from Sentinel-1 to detect flood inundation. Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation estimates were found to underestimate rainfall by 33% to 52% compared to rain gauge data. The team found the Soil Moisture Active Passive dataset to be a valuable flooding indicator that they could visualize through various graphical representations, although its accuracy still needs verification with in situ flood maps. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar imagery provided mapping of flood inundation extent along the Salinas River and surrounding areas and the Blue Spot model appears to be a good predictor of pluvial flood zones. The findings suggest Earth observations can enhance precipitation and flooding monitoring by the California Department of Water Resources, though further verification is needed. Integration of these datasets with vulnerability indices highlighted communities at highest risk during the 2022-2023 flooding events.

Abhinav Banthiya↗

Real-Time Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis for Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets-- both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers, In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences.

Adler, Robert↗

Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis to Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers. In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences. However, difficulties in comparing landslide event information (mostly from news reports) with the satellite-based forecasts are analyzed.

Adler, Robert↗

Flood Impacts on Net Ecosystem Exchange in the Midwestern and Southern United States in 2019

Climate extremes such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, frosts, and windstorms add considerable variability to the global year-to-year increase in atmospheric CO(2) through their influence on terrestrial ecosystems. While the impact of droughts on terrestrial ecosystems has received considerable attention, the response to flooding is not well understood. To improve upon this knowledge, the impact of the 2019 anomalously wet conditions over the Midwest and Southern US on CO(2) vegetation fluxes is examined in the context of 2017–2018 when such precipitation anomalies were not observed. CO(2) is simulated with NASA's Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) combined with the Low-order Flux Inversion, where fluxes of CO(2) are estimated using a suite of remote sensing measurements including greenness, night lights, and fire radiative power as well as with a bias correction based on insitu observations. Net ecosystem exchange CO(2) tracers are separated into the three regions covering the Midwest, South, and Eastern Texas and adjusted to match CO(2) observations from towers located in Iowa, Mississippi, and Texas. Results indicate that for the Midwestern region consisting primarily of corn and soybeans crops, flooding contributes to a 15%–25% reduction of annual net carbon uptake in 2019 in comparison to 2017 and 2018. These results are supported by independent reports of changes in agricultural activity. For the Southern region, comprised mainly of non-crop vegetation, annual net carbon uptake is enhanced in 2019 by about 10%–20% in comparison to 2017 and 2018. These outcomes show the heterogeneity in effects that excess wetness can bring to diverse ecosystems.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Ground Water and Climate Change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

climate change↗

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the U.S. Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods, and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. We analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000 to 2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices, and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large-scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data were used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10% of the time, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

USAID↗

First Evaluation of the Climatological Calibration Algorithm in the Real-time TMPA Precipitation Estimates over Two Basins at High and Low Latitudes

The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system underwent a crucial upgrade in early 2009 to include a climatological calibration algorithm (CCA) to its realtime product 3B42RT, and this algorithm will continue to be applied in the future Global Precipitation Measurement era constellation precipitation products. In this study, efforts are focused on the comparison and validation of the Version 6 3B42RT estimates before and after the climatological calibration is applied. The evaluation is accomplished using independent rain gauge networks located within the high-latitude Laohahe basin and the low-latitude Mishui basin, both in China. The analyses indicate the CCA can effectively reduce the systematic errors over the low-latitude Mishui basin but misrepresent the intensity distribution pattern of medium-high rain rates. This behavior could adversely affect TMPA's hydrological applications, especially for extreme events (e.g., floods and landslides). Results also show that the CCA tends to perform slightly worse, in particular, during summer and winter, over the high-latitude Laohahe basin. This is possibly due to the simplified calibration-processing scheme in the CCA that directly applies the climatological calibrators developed within 40 degrees latitude to the latitude belts of 40 degrees N-50 degrees N. Caution should therefore be exercised when using the calibrated 3B42RT for heavy rainfall-related flood forecasting (or landslide warning) over high-latitude regions, as the employment of the smooth-fill scheme in the CCA bias correction could homogenize the varying rainstorm characteristics. Finally, this study highlights that accurate detection and estimation of snow at high latitudes is still a challenging task for the future development of satellite precipitation retrievals.

TMPA-RT Precipitation Estimates↗

Airborne Observations of Aerosol Properties in Southeast Asia: Overview of Emissions, Cloud Processing, and Long Range Transport during NASA CAMP2Ex

The Southwest Monsoon represents an important synoptic scale meteorological feature that modulates precipitation throughout Southeast Asia. In addition, southwesterly flow can funnel large amounts of biomass burning aerosol into heavily populated areas throughout the Philippines, mixing with urban emissions and representing a significant air quality issue. From a climate perspective, understanding interactions between these particles and clouds has important societal ramifications through frequent extreme periods of flood and drought. Here we present airborne observations made in support of the NASA CAMP2Ex (Cloud and Aerosol Monsoonal Processes-Philippines Experiment) mission aboard the Wallops Flight Facility P-3 research aircraft, based at Clark International Airport in the Luzon region of Northern Philippines. Nineteen research flights were conducted in August-October of 2019. An extensive suite of aerosol microphysical, optical, and chemical instrumentation was deployed, along with trace gas and remote sensing measurements, to characterize aerosol emissions and their vertical/spatial variability associated with moderately convective marine cloud systems in the region. Analysis will focus on characterizing disparate aerosol sources with respect to derived chemical and optical properties relevant to global circulation modeling. For example, higher than expected mass scattering efficiencies for aged biomass burning emissions, derived from a combination of nephelometer and aerosol mass spectrometer measurements, are attributed to increased particle size and decreased density. Results will also illustrate the evolution of aerosols from Indonesian agricultural biomass burning activities into the Philippines region, in comparison with urban emissions from the megacity Manila and transported air masses from mainland Asia.

Luke David Ziemba↗

Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Climate stabilization remains elusive, with increased greenhouse gas concentrations already increasing global average surface temperatures 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other anthropogenic sources reached ~ 43 billion metric tonnes in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al 2019, Jackson et al 2019). Storms, floods, and other extreme weather events displaced a record 7 million people in the first half of 2019 (IDMC 2019). When global mean surface temperature four million years ago was 2°C–3°C warmer than today (a likely temperature increase before the end of the century), ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted and parts of East Antarctica’s ice retreated, causing sea levels to rise 10–20 m (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Methane (CH4) emissions have contributed almost one quarter of the cumulative radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and N2O (nitrous oxide) combined since 1750 (Etminan et al 2016). Although methane is far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2, it absorbs thermal infrared radiation much more efficiently and, in consequence, has a global warming potential (GWP) ~86 times stronger per unit mass than CO2 on a 20-year timescale and 28- times more powerful on a 100-year time scale (IPCC 2014). Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere reached ~1875 parts per billion (ppb) at the end of 2019, more than two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels (Dlugokencky 2020). The largest methane sources include anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, waste, and the extraction and use of fossil fuels as well as natural emissions from wetlands, freshwater systems, and geological sources (Kirschke et al 2013, Saunois et al 2016a, Ganesan et al 2019). Here, we summarize new estimates of the global methane budget based on the analysis of Saunois et al (2020) for the year 2017, the last year of the new Global Methane Budget and the most recent year data are fully available. We compare these estimates to mean values for the reference ‘stabilization’ period of 2000–2006 when atmospheric CH4 concentrations were relatively stable. We present data for sources and sinks and provide insights for the geographical regions and economic sectors where emissions have changed the most over recent decades.

fossil fuel sources↗

Integrating Earth Observations and Socioeconomic Data to Identify Vulnerable Populations and Support Environmental Justice Initiatives

Part of NASA’s Earth Applied Sciences, DEVELOP is a dual capacity building program that introduces communities to applications of NASA Earth observation data to help inform environmental decision making. These projects are conducted by small teams of students, recent graduates, and early and transitioning career professionals and are tailored specifically to end-user decision making processes. Since 2018, a collaboration between NASA DEVELOP, Groundwork USA and its network of trusts, the AGU Thriving Earth Exchange, and local communities such as the City of Cambridge and the City of San Diego, has culminated in a campaign of 14 projects focused on assessing vulnerability to environmental threats such as extreme heat and flooding. These projects have explored the integration of satellite data and socio-economic data to discern populations at risk of being negatively impacted and align with Groundwork’s Climate Safe Neighborhoods Initiative that explores the relationship between historical race-based housing segregation and current and predicted impacts of climate change. This presentation will introduce an overview of the DEVELOP projects using Earth observations to support vulnerabilities assessments and community resilience, the collaboration with Groundwork USA, and future plans for environmental justice efforts at NASA.

Capacity Building↗