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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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39 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗
NASA NTRS2011

Saturn Neutron Exosphere as Source for Inner and Innermost Radiation Belts

Energetic proton and electron measurements by the ongoing Cassini orbiter mission are expanding our knowledge of the highest energy components of the Saturn magnetosphere in the inner radiation belt region after the initial discoveries of these belts by the Pioneer 11 and Voyager 2 missions. Saturn has a neutron exosphere that extends throughout the magnetosphere from the cosmic ray albedo neutron source at the planetary main rings and atmosphere. The neutrons emitted from these sources at energies respectively above 4 and 8 eV escape the Saturn system, while those at lower energies are gravitationally bound. The neutrons undergo beta decay in average times of about 1000 seconds to provide distributed sources of protons and electrons throughout Saturn's magnetosphere with highest injection rates close to the Saturn and ring sources. The competing radiation belt source for energetic electrons is rapid inward diffusion and acceleration of electrons from the middle magnetosphere and beyond. Minimal losses during diffusive transport across the moon orbits, e.g. of Mimas and Enceladus, and local time asymmetries in electron intensity, suggest that drift resonance effects preferentially boost the diffusion rates of electrons from both sources. Energy dependences of longitudinal gradient-curvature drift speeds relative to the icy moons are likely responsible for hemispheric differences (e.g., Mimas, Tethys) in composition and thermal properties as at least partly produced by radiolytic processes. A continuing mystery is the similar radial profiles of lower energy (<10 MeV) protons in the inner belt region. Either the source of these lower energy protons is also neutron decay, but perhaps alternatively from atmospheric albedo, or else all protons from diverse distributed sources are similarly affected by losses at the moon' orbits, e.g. because the proton diffusion rates are extremely low. Enceladus cryovolcanism, and radiolytic processing elsewhere on the icy moon and ring surfaces, are additional sources of protons via ionization and charge exchange from breakup of water molecules. But one must then account somehow for local acceleration to the observed keV-MeV energies, since moon sweeping and E-ring absorption would remove protons diffusing inward from the middle magnetosphere. Although the main rings block further inward diffusion from the inner radiation belts, the exospheric neutron-decay source, combined with much slower diffusion of protons relative to electrons, may produce an innermost radiation belt in the gap between the upper atmosphere and the D-ring. This innermost belt will first be explored in-situ during the final proximal orbits of the Cassini mission.

Cooper, John↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photon acceleration of high-intensity vector vortex beams into the extreme ultraviolet

Extreme ultraviolet (XUV) light sources allow for the probing of bound electron dynamics on attosecond scales, interrogation of high-energy-density matter, and access to novel regimes of strong-field quantum electrodynamics. Despite the importance of these applications, coherent XUV sources remain relatively rare, and those that do exist are limited in their peak intensity and spatio-polarization structure. Here, we demonstrate that photon acceleration of an optical vector vortex pulse in the moving density gradient of an electron beam–driven plasma wave can produce a high-intensity, tunable-wavelength XUV pulse with the same vector vortex structure as the original pulse. Quasi-3D, boosted-frame particlein- cell simulations show the transition of optical vector vortex pulses with 800-nm wavelengths and intensities below 10 18 W/cm 2 to XUV vector vortex pulses with 36-nm wavelengths and intensities exceeding 10 20 W/cm 2 over a distance of 1.2 cm. The XUV pulses have sub-femtosecond durations and nearly flat phase fronts. The production of such high-quality, high-intensity XUV vector vortex pulses could expand the utility of XUV light as a diagnostic and driver of novel light–matter interactions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗