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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for a Photovoltaic Inverter

While PV panel reliability continues to increase, PV inverters become the limiting factor for PV system reliability. Consequently, it is critical to have a generic tool from a third party for PV inverter reliability assessment to help 1) utilities/PV farm operators schedule maintenance in advance, and 2) inverter developers improve the next-generation design. However, these two things cannot be accomplished without first understanding the reasons behind inverter failure. Following this idea, as the first step, it is essential to identify and investigate the most failure-prone components within a PV inverter system. After all, any system is only as reliable as the components that are contained within it. This motivates the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) work presented for this workshop. The FMEA is conducted as follows: first, the overview of the methodology on the development of the FMEA is presented; then, based on a top-down approach starting from the PV inverter system, critical inverter components with high failure rates are identified and summarized; afterward, a thorough FMEA study at a component-level is performed and its results, including failure modes, failure mechanisms, and critical stressors, are tabulated; finally, according to three rankings (chance of occurrence, severity of occurrence, and ease of detection prior to failure) for each failure mechanism provided by the FMEA, risk priority numbers are calculated and the failure mechanisms along with the critical stressors are ranked in terms of their potentially detrimental effect on the PV inverter.

Brown, Buck↗
DOE OSTI2020

In-situ Detection of Glovebox Glove Degradation Prior to Glove Failure; Effects on Safety, Waste, and Operational Costs - 20402

Glovebox glove pressure decay leak testing and analysis of the data can greatly improve glovebox safety, minimize Transuranic (TRU) glove waste, and minimize operational cost. It is well known, the weakest point of containment on a glovebox is the glove. Mitigating unplanned openings in gloves is critical to minimizing operational and safety costs in glovebox operations. Mitigating unplanned glove openings due to glove failures will be discussed in this paper. The lack of an engineered solution to determine a gloves operational life in nuclear operations, has lead to use of theoretical and manual subjective methods to determine the life and safety of a glovebox glove. Whether the glove is inspected visually prior to use, or gloves are changed regularly to theoretically avoid failure, both the operators PPE and the room are being exposed to contamination, or un-necessary amounts of TRU glove waste are being generated. Millions of dollars yearly in operational costs are spent on glove failures due to loss of production, incident analysis, regulatory audits, clean up, and paperwork. In a nuclear application, a glove failure could contaminate an operator and laboratory, shut down the operation for weeks, potentially create a regulatory audit, and potentially create a media frenzy; the damages to the organization can be astronomical. Elimination of glove failures is possible by tracking glove material degradation and setting limits to allow glove change when it becomes necessary, prior to glove failure. Analytical pressure decay leak testing allows the detection of material degradation, and in turn the ability to limit operational glove failures. A German based company called MK Versuchsanlagen, e.K., has developed an advanced Glove Integrity Testing System. The system, with its use of proprietary RFID and special software technology, is unique in its capabilities. The system is capable to perform highly accurate regular glove testing on any size glovebox line in minimal time. The system records and can analyze a tremendous amount of system data that in turn can determine, for example, a safe glove change time prior to a glove material failure. This paper will show how an advanced Glove Integrity Testing System can detect glove material degradation and help determine a safe change point prior to glove failure. Pressure decay curves of new gloves and recorded effects of accelerated aging on the glove over time will be shown. The use of this technology in nuclear facilities can greatly improve glovebox operational safety, minimize glovebox glove TRU waste, and save organizations tremendous costs in downtime, clean up, documentation, and potential regulatory review. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial electrolysis cell recovery after inducing operational failure conditions

Microbial Electrolysis Cells (MECs) are often documented for their ability to produce hydrogen through new sources and new configurations. However, few studies attempt to document the recovery of the bioanode after being exposed to operational failure conditions. This study attempted to compare the behavior and recovery of MECs after being exposed to four operational failure conditions: acidification, aeration, osmotic shock, and voltage reversal. For each failure condition, three time points were tested: before failure, immediately after failure, and after recovery efforts. Of the modes tested, acidification caused the largest loss in performance and operational efficiency, while osmotic shock caused the second largest loss in performance. Aeration and voltage reversal caused negligible losses in performance immediately after failure conditions and after the recovery period. Aeration and voltage reversal had a minimal effect on the removal of individual compounds. However, acetate accumulated after acidification, and propionic acid accumulated after osmotic shock. Furthermore these findings could be useful for determining if failure will require more significant repair efforts in commercially deployed devices. While acidification created permanent losses to performance, if device failures like aeration, osmotic shock, and voltage reversal are caught early (less than 15 min), full recovery without bioanode replacement is likely.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling strategy for progressive failure prediction in lithium-ion batteries under mechanical abuse

The prediction for the internal failure of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) under external mechanical abuse loading remains a challenge for safe design. This paper systematically studies the modeling approach for progressive failure simulation and short-circuit prediction. Hemispherical indentation experiments are conducted on a battery specimen containing 5 representative sandwich (RS) layers to examine the deformation and progressive failure behavior of battery components. Three different models, viz, a high-fidelity detailed model, an intermediate homogenized model and a fully homogenized model, are developed and employed to simulate the progressive failure in a multi-layer battery specimen. The simulation results obtained using the three models all correlate well with experimental phenomena, capturing the overall stress-strain response and ultimate failure of the battery structure. The numerical results can help us understand the failure behavior and the mechanism for mechanical abuse-induced short circuit in LIBs. The feasibility of the three models for use in progressive failure prediction is compared by analyzing the capability of the models in predicting the critical failure events, the computational efficiency of the models, and the feasibility to implement coupled mechanical-electrochemical-thermal simulations. The results of this work provide useful insights on practical choices for the modeling strategy and safety design of LIBs under mechanical abuse conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A prediction model of failure threshold for shear deformation in a Zr-based bulk metallic glass

The failure of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) during plastic deformation at room temperature is abrupt and instantaneous, while the analysis of precursor information based on avalanche events helps predict catastrophic failure. An acoustic emission (AE) signal can provide accurate precursor information for material failure, due to its sensitive and high fast calculation ability. In the current study, AE monitoring tests are carried out during uniaxial compression tests of BMGs at different strain rates. The AE experimental failure threshold, E max , is proposed on the basis of AE cumulative energy, which reflects the intensity of damage evolution at different loading conditions. Compared with the critical shear band velocity (CSBV) associated with stick-slip dynamics of serrated flow, E max is a more sensitive failure parameter since it is connected with the local microscopic changes that occur during the material response process. Here, the E max is obtained prior to reaching the CSBV since the calculation of these two avalanches analysis focuses on the different stages of shear band growth. In particular, AE events are related to the “dry” friction process in the first stage, however, the CSBV is responsible for the “viscous” glide in the second stage. Therefore, Emax is not affected by the complex interactions between the shear bands during the stick-slip process. The maximum avalanche of serrated flow, S max , is proposed as the experimental failure threshold, which depends on the applied strain rate as S max ~ $\dot{ε}$ –λ . According to the relationship of E max and S max , the theoretical failure threshold, E max , follows a criterion E max = 2545$\dot{ε}$ –λ - 4468, where λ is equivalent to 0.15 for this work. Finally, combining the different calculations and AE measurements, this model gives new insights to predict the deformation failure behavior of Zr-based BMGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a fundamental component in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to increase the plant's dispatchability, capacity factor, while reducing the levelized cost of electricity. In central receivers CSP plants, nitrate molten salts have been used for several years for operation temperatures of up to 565 degrees C. Despite many efforts to advance nitrate salt to higher operation temperatures (even considering a replacement with molten chloride salts) to achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies, the 565 degrees C temperature is currently considered the state-of-the art. Although molten salt tanks have been broadly deployed in commercial CSP plants worldwide, several failures have been reported in these tanks after a few months or years of operation, causing significant economic loss and mistrust in CSP technologies. Most of these failures are associated with the infancy of the technology and multiple issues related to tank design, fabrication, commissioning, and aggressive operation. A technical standard dedicated to the design and fabrication of molten nitrate TES tanks does not exist today. Current in-service molten salt tanks have been generally designed based on the American Petroleum Institute's (API) 650 and ASME Section II standards. The API 650 code provides guidelines for dimensions and fabrication for oil storage tanks up to 260 degrees C. The ASME standard provides allowable stress values for various materials at a range of temperatures and conditions. Both standards seem to be limited for molten salt TES tanks where high temperatures, thermal cycling, and transient conditions are expected. In 2020, NREL released the Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study (NREL/TP-5500-75763) that summarized multiple issues in CSP plants, along with potential alternatives and recommendations to address those issues based on information collected from participants representing about 80% of operating CSP plants in the world. One of the recommendations from this study was the development of accurate and validated models to evaluate the plant's transient operation, capable of capturing the effect of short-term clouds and operator response, while being flexible in being adapted to various spatial and temporal resource data. The "Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants" project was inspired on this recommendation and was focused on (1) the development and validation of a physics-based model for a representative, commercial-scale molten salt tank, (2) performing simulations to evaluate the behavior of the tank as a function of typical plant operation conditions, (3) understanding tank failures mechanisms, (4) determining the residual stress and distortion in the tank floor after welding fabrication and evaluating their impact in the stresses developed in the tank during operation, (5) assessing the impact of key operation parameters on the temperature and stress distribution, (6) conduct a preliminary evaluation of design features to reduce stress and improve tank's reliability, and (7) estimate the tank's service life based on the stress developed under diverse operation scenarios. From the analysis conducted in the project and presented in this report, it was found that maximum stresses surpassing the yield strength point of the stainless steel (SS) 347H are developed on the tank floor near the perimeter. These large stresses are strongly influenced by the initial residual stresses and distortion of the tank floor after welding fabrication. During operation, large stresses are developed in the tank floor at high operation temperatures with large salt inventory levels during transient operation. High stresses are also related to elevated temperature gradients in the tank floor that could be attributed to insufficient mixing within the salt inflow and the salt inventory. Based on the analysis, creep is the predominant failure mechanism. However, the large stress levels could favor the plastic deformation into buckles, and crack formation due to stress relaxation cracking during cycle operation. A lifetime below 3 years was estimated for the typical plant operation conditions and a specific initial residual stress and deformation distribution of the tank floor. The estimated life agrees with the service time to failure reported in several commercial molten salt tanks. Desing and operation guidelines can be extracted from the analysis presented in this report, which could be adopted by tank manufacturers and CSP operators to advance toward an ultimate solution for tank failures by reducing residual and operational stresses to achieve a tank service life of more than 30 years. Addressing failures in molten salt TES tanks is fundamental for the CSP industry's survivability, but it is also important for other industrial and power generation applications using this technology, including nuclear and concentrating solar thermal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing Potential Failures and Effects in a Pilot-Scale Biomass Preprocessing Facility for Improved Reliability

This study demonstrates a failure identification methodology applied to a preprocessing facility generating conversion-ready feedstocks from biomass meeting conversion process critical quality attribute (CQA) specifications. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was used as an industrially relevant risk analysis approach to evaluate a logging residue preprocessing system to prepare feedstock for pyrolysis conversion. Risk evaluations considered both system-level and operation unit-level assessments considering process efficiency, product quality, cost, sustainability, and safety. Key outputs included estimations of semi-quantitative risk scores for each failure, identification of the failure impacts, identification of failure causes associated with material attributes and process parameters, ranking success rates of failure detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing failure risk scores. Results showed that deviations from moisture specifications had cascading consequences for other CQAs along with process safety implications. Failures linked to fixed carbon specifications carried the highest risk scores for product quality and process efficiency impacts. As increased throughput can be inversely related to meeting product quality specifications; achieving throughput and other material-based CQAs simultaneously will likely require system optimization or prioritization based on system economics. Ultimately, this work successfully demonstrates FMEA as a risk analysis approach for other bioenergy process systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Void coalescence and ductile failure in IN718 investigated via high-energy synchrotron X-ray tomography and diffraction

Ductile failure through the growth and coalescence of voids is of particular relevance for many engineering materials. Yet, the lack of experimental measurements of the mechanical state of the material at an appropriate length scale has limited further understanding of the regime of ductile failure. In this study, local grain-scale experimental measurements are used to determine their relevance for describing and predicting ductile failure. Additive manufactured materials, due to the presence of inherent porosity, as well as the ability to tailor internal porosity, provides a promising avenue to study ductile failure. Selective laser melting is used to manufacture a specially designed specimen with two large, internal voids, in addition to the natural porosity, which is characteristic to the production process. The initial porosity and its evolution upon tensile loading are characterized via micro tomography. Several locations of void coalescence are captured in the sample, revealing activity of multiple modes of failure. Finite element simulations, with a simplified J2 plasticity model, instantiated with the initial void structure, is deployed, in which geometric localizations of stress concentration corresponded with experimentally observed sites of coalescence but was inadequate in capturing the appropriate failure mechanism. Furthermore, from the experimental results of the far-field high-energy diffraction microscopy, the heterogeneous micromechanical state is identified and tracked around voids due to the local grain interactions. These experiments determine narrow bands of low stress triaxiality, at the onset of failure, which highlight the path of coalescence through intervoid shearing. Diffraction spot spreading analysis aided characterization of intragranular plasticity and strain heterogeneity, which can be coupled with high triaxiality to form the conditions inducive for coalescence through intervoid necking. In this study, the experimentally determined grain-scale description of the micromechanical state provides a physical basis that can accurately capture both the sites and the mechanism of void coalescence at the onset of ductile failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗
DOE OSTI2020

Holistic Measurement Driven Resilience: Combining Operational Fault and Failure Measurements and Fault Injection for Quantifying Fault Detection, Propagation and Impact. Final report

For HPC systems to date, application resilience to faults and failures has been accomplished by the brute- force method of checkpoint/restart, which allows an application to make forward progress in the face of system and application faults, errors, and failures independent of root cause or end result. It has remained the primary resilience mechanism because we lack a way to identify faults and anticipate consequences early enough to take meaningful mitigating action. However, checkpoint/restart implementations put a tremendous burden on system resources and on the applications themselves and is becoming less feasible at scale. Because we have not yet operated at scales at which checkpoint/restart fails to provide forward progress, despite increasing costs, vendors have had little motivation to provide the instrumentation necessary for early identification of faults and failures. However, as we move from petascale to exascale, component mean time to failure (MTTF) will render the existing techniques ineffectual and/or too expensive. Furthermore, fault recovery mechanisms such as failover and/or error correction introduce performance inconsistency. Instrumentation allowing early indication of problems and tools to enable use of such information by systems, operating systems, and applications offer an alternative, more scalable and less costly solution. In the HMDR project, we built on our experience and expertise developed and accumulated over years of research on design, monitoring, measurement, and assessment of resilient computing systems. Analysis of field data on the current and past generations of extreme-scale systems revealed several challenges that, if not addressed in increasingly larger and more complex systems, may hinder the effectiveness of future exascale computing systems. Specifically, i) file systems and interconnects in current-generation large-scale systems already operate at the margins of resiliency, including consistent performance, and may not scale to larger deployments; ii) automated, software-based failover mechanisms are frequently inadequate and can introduce wider failures, such that failures during recovery may lead to system/application failures, including system-wide outages; and iii) silent data corruption represents a critical fault mode and will require efficient detection mechanisms if next-generation applications are to take full advantage of exascale hardware. To address the above challenges, we assembled a team of world-renowned experts in resilient extreme- scale computing from the University of Illinois (Electrical and Computer Engineering, Computer Science, and NCSA), SNL, LANL, NERSC, and Cray. Our team includes representatives from centers that house many of the largest HPC resources in the world, both today and over the coming years. The team has a unique track record of research in i) system and application failure characterization based on the analysis of field data, ii) data-driven design of fault/error detection mechanisms, and iii) experimental characterization of system/application resiliency. The team includes system owners/operators who provide continuous data collection and access and ensure installation of appropriate analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Methods for Cyclical and Coupled Systems with Changing Failure Rates

Advancements in nuclear system designs with automated control features provide many benefits, but can lead to complex coupled systems and dynamic failure scenarios. This is especially true for microreactor designs where components are not expected to be replaced during the reactor’s lifetime. Hence, the life of the system, in addition to the safety, needs to be evaluated. Modeling these sequences of time-dependent events requires addressing cyclical processes and changing failure rates in ways that represent the actual system dynamics in contrast to a single sampling for a component’s time to failure. This research presents two distinct analytical methods for several failure distributions that evaluate a final time to failure used for different scenarios where the time to failure must be sampled multiple times. The first method is used when evaluating a component whose failure rate increases due to an outside event after the initial sampling but before the initially sampled time to failure. The second method is used when evaluating multiple identical components or a component that has been replaced with a new identical version before the second sampling. The two methods were implemented in a few representative case studies developed in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams. Overall, this paper provides guidelines on how these approaches give a more realistic and accurate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing the techno-economic impacts of partial string failure in multistring energy storage systems

The role of energy storage systems (ESSs) is becoming increasingly important for today’s electric power systems. Unavailability of an ESS assigned to critical grid services may cause unwanted disruption of those services and hence, may have a significant techno-economic impact. Like any physical equipment, an ESS is vulnerable to various types of faults. Failure of one or more strings in a multistring ESS does not have to be the cause of shutting down the entire ESS. It can still operate with a partial number of strings and continue providing critical services to the grid, if there are no reliability or safety issues and is acceptable under applicable standards. However, it is important to make sure that the control strategies are adaptable to the changes in ESS capacity caused by failed strings. Also, depending on the previous operation and type of failure, the reallocation of duty cycle burden among available strings could be non-uniform. These complexities suggest that mitigation of the impact of partial failure in multistring ESSs is not trivial and needs careful consideration. This is the topic of this paper. The proposed work investigates the impact of partial failure of a large multistring ESS on the assigned service and develops strategies to adjust the ESS control duty cycles for reducing such impacts. In doing so, the paper proposes a novel two-stage framework that plans for the multistring failure using robust optimization theory and then adjusts in real-time using a rule-based algorithm, based on the real-time information on the power availability of the string. Illustrations provided in this work are based on frequency regulation use-case, which is a common application for many utility-scale ESSs. A 750 kilowatt (kW)/1500 kilowatt-hour (kWh) 3-string ESS is used for the demonstration in this work and the efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated and compared against methods that do not incorporate string failure in their strategy. In particular, here we show that revenue loss of 93% can be incurred when partial string failure is not included in operation and planning. These losses in revenue are reduced by 60% with the proposed method.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resiliency-based restoration optimization for dependent network systems against cascading failures

Due to the increasing importance of large-scale and complex network systems and the potential for massive cascading failures in these real-world systems, modeling of system resiliency and optimization of restoration strategies to mitigate system performance loss caused by diverse disruptions is of significant interest among researchers and practitioners. Although society has experienced many incidents that demonstrate the influence of cascading failures aggravated by dependencies inside network systems, existing resiliency-based restoration optimization research rarely if ever jointly considers the impact of system dependencies on cascading failures. In this paper, different restoration prioritization strategies are applied to network systems subject to cascading failures that take into account system dependencies. By conducting case studies on synthetic networks and the U.S. airport network system, the effects of restoration strategies are evaluated using a system resiliency metric and two system performance measurements. Furthermore, the influence of system dependency characteristics and the interplay between them and restoration strategies on system resiliency regarding cascading failures are also investigated. This work demonstrates the distinct effects of restoration prioritization actions against cascading failures to mitigate the performance loss in network systems with different properties. It also provides insights about restoration improvement by considering dependency impacts to effectively reduce the intensity and extent of cascading failures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards validation of combined-accelerated stress testing through failure analysis of polyamide-based photovoltaic backsheets

Abstract Novel methods for advancing reliability testing of photovoltaic (PV) modules and materials have recently been developed. Combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) is one such method which has demonstrated reliable reproduction of some field-failures which were not reproducible by standard certification tests. To increase confidence and assist in the development of C-AST, and other new testing protocols, it is important to validate that the failure modes observed and mechanisms induced are representative of those observed in the field, and not the product of unrealistic stress conditions. Here we outline a method using appropriate materials characterization and modelling to validate the failure mechanisms induced in C-AST such that we can increase confidence in the test protocol. The method is demonstrated by applying it to a known cracking failure of a specific polyamide (PA)-based backsheet material. We found that the failure of the PA-based backsheet was a result of a combination of stress factors. Photo-oxidation from ultra-violet (UV) radiation exposure caused a reduction in fracture toughness, which ultimately lead to the cracking failure. We show that the chemical and structural changes observed in the backsheet following C-AST aging were also observed in field-aged samples. These results increase confidence that the conditions applied in C-AST are representative of the field and demonstrates our approach to validating the failure mechanisms induced.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗