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At least 55 records · Page 3

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

Abstract Applying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the Interplay Between Distributed Bulk Plasticity and Local Fault Slip in Evolving Fault Zone Complexity

Abstract We numerically investigate the role of plastic strain accumulation on the mechanical response of a planar strike‐slip fault. Our models show that fault‐zone strength significantly impacts the ensuing sequence of earthquakes. Weaker fault zones accumulating more plastic strain promote more complexity in the seismicity pattern through aperiodic earthquake occurrences and intermittent episodes of rupture and arrest. However, if the fault zone strength is high enough, the overall earthquake sequence is characterized by periodic fault‐spanning events. We find that both the fault normal stress and the fault geometric profile evolve throughout the earthquake sequence, suggesting a self‐roughening mechanism. Despite the significant impact of plasticity on the fault response, the width of the plastically deforming region in the fault zone is small compared to the fault length. Our results suggest a rich behavior in dynamically evolving fault zones and support the need for further high‐resolution studies of the highly non‐linear near‐fault region.

Geology↗

INITIAL STUDIES OF CAVITY FAULT PREDICTION AT JEFFERSON LABORATORY

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory is a CW recirculating linac that utilizes over 400 superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities to accelerate electrons up to 12 GeV through 5-passes. Recent work has shown that, given RF signals from a cavity during a fault as input, machine learning approaches can accurately classify the fault type. In this paper we report on initial results of predicting a fault onset using only data prior to the failure event. A data set was constructed using time-series data immediately before a fault (’unstable’) and 1.5 seconds prior to a fault (’stable’) gathered from over 5,000 saved fault events. The data was used to train a binary classifier. The results gave key insights into the behavior of several fault types and provided motivation to investigate whether data prior to a failure event could also predict the type of fault. We discuss our method using a sliding window approach and report on initial results. Recent modifications to the low-level RF control system will provide access to streaming signals and we outline a path forward for leveraging deep learning on streaming data

Vidyaratne, Lasitha↗

INITIAL STUDIES OF CAVITY FAULT PREDICTION AT JEFFERSON LABORATORY

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory is a CW recirculating linac that utilizes over 400 superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities to accelerate electrons up to 12 GeV through 5-passes. Recent work has shown that, given RF signals from a cavity during a fault as input, machine learning approaches can accurately classify the fault type. In this paper we report on initial results of predicting a fault onset using only data prior to the failure event. A data set was constructed using time-series data immediately before a fault (’unstable’) and 1.5 seconds prior to a fault (’stable’) gathered from over 5,000 saved fault events. The data was used to train a binary classifier. The results gave key insights into the behavior of several fault types and provided motivation to investigate whether data prior to a failure event could also predict the type of fault. We discuss our method using a sliding window approach and report on initial results. Recent modifications to the low-level RF control system will provide access to streaming signals and we outline a path forward for leveraging deep learning on streaming data

Vidyaratne, Lasitha↗

A Time-Domain Protection Approach for AC Transmission Systems With Grid-Forming Resources

Ac transmission protection must reliably detect, classify, and locate short-circuit faults from voltage and current measurements. At present, these functionalities, which have been classically engineered using phasors approaches, are being challenged by the dynamic behavior and fault-current limits of converter-based generation. This paper tackles these challenges by engineering a time-domain protection approach that leverages the classical Bergeron model in a new manner. Low- and high-impedance faults are detected and classified by ascertaining how well line voltage and current measurements match the Bergeron equations. Faults are located by posing a novel one-variable optimization problem, whereas voltage and current waveforms at the fault location are estimated by unveiling rigorous relationships. The proposed elements are secure against external faults, measurement errors, and variation of line parameters and sampling time. Furthermore, these advances are tested via electromagnetic transient simulations and are significant to satisfy IEEE and North American Electric Reliability Corporation requirements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The influence of preexisting host rock damage on fault network localization

The transition from stable to unstable fracture propagation occurs when fractures begin to interact and link. Thus, fracture network coalescence controls how rocks and engineered structures fail. Here, to constrain the factors that influence localization in shear zones under brittle conditions, we build discrete element method models with a rough fault embedded in a shear zone. We add varying numbers of diffuse, randomly-placed weaknesses to examine the influence of diffuse damage on fracture network localization. The number of weaknesses controls the localization behavior of the fault network and the final fault geometry. We quantify localization using the Gini coefficient of the fracture volume, which measures the nonuniformity in a population. Each model generally increases in localization toward failure. However, models with more diffuse damage experience delocalization phases that are superimposed on the overall trend of increasing localization. The observed link between delocalization and host rock damage may help explain the varying localization of low magnitude seismicity in southern California. Models with more diffuse damage produce more complex fault geometries comprised of several parallel strands of wing cracks. The propagation of these wing cracks reduces the shear stress acting on the model boundaries, indicating that this fracture development increases the mechanical efficiency of the system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling of fluid injection-induced fault reactivation using coupled fluid flow and mechanical interface model

The present study is aimed at developing a numerical model to reproduce coupled hydro-mechanical processes associated with fault reactivation by fluid injection in low permeability rock, as part of the DECOVALEX-2019 project Task B. We proposed a modeling approach for simulating the processes using the TOUGH-FLAC simulator, and modeled a fault reactivation experiment conducted at Mont Terri Rock Laboratory in Switzerland. The first step of the study involved benchmark calculations considering a simplified fault plane and geometry. Fluid flow along a fault was modeled using elements of aperture-sized thickness on the basis of Darcy's law and the cubic law in TOUGH2, whereas the mechanical behavior of a single fault was represented by zero-thickness interface elements in FLAC3D upon which a slip and/or separation is allowed. A methodology to connect a TOUGH2 volume element to a FLAC3D interface element was developed for handling the hydro-mechanical interactions on the fault during fluid injection. Two different fault models for describing the evolutions of hydraulic aperture by elastic fracture opening and failure-induced aperture increase were considered in the benchmark calculations. In the coupling process, the changes in geometrical features and hydrological properties induced by mechanical deformation were continuously updated. The transient responses of the fault and host rock to stepwise pressurization were examined during the simulation. The hydro-mechanical behavior, including the injection flow rate, pressure distribution around the borehole, stress conditions, and displacements in normal and shear directions were monitored in the surrounding rock and along the fault. The results of benchmark calculations suggest that the developed model reasonably represents the hydro-mechanical behavior of a fault and the surrounding rock. This modeling approach was applied to the fault reactivation experiment of the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory. In this interpretive modeling, a parametric study was conducted to examine the effects of input parameters regarding in situ stress and fault properties on the hydro-mechanical responses of the fault to water injection. Then, an optimal parameter set to reproduce the field experiment results was chosen by trial-and-error. The injection flow rate and pressure response during fault reactivation closely matched those obtained at the site, which indicates the capability of the model to appropriately capture the progressive pathway evolution during fault reactivation tests at the site. Finally, the anchor displacements were overestimated by the model, but a fair agreement was obtained in terms of the order of magnitude and the variation tendency.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic fault weakening via CO 2 pressurization enhanced by mechanical deformation of dolomite fault gouges

Carbon dioxide emissions from dolomite decarbonation play an essential role in the weakening of carbonate faults by lowering the effective normal stress, which is thermally activated at temperatures above 600–700 °C. However, the mechanochemical effect of low-crystalline ultrafine fault gouge on the decarbonation and slip behavior of dolomite-bearing faults remains unclear. In this study, we obtained a series of artificial dolomite fault gouges with systematically varying particle sizes and dolomite crystallinities using a high-energy ball mill. The laboratory-scale pulverization of dolomite yielded MgO at temperatures below 50 °C, indicating that mechanical decarbonation without significant heating occurred due to the collapse of the crystalline structure, as revealed by X-ray diffraction and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance results. Furthermore, the onset temperature of thermal decarbonation decreased to ~400 °C. Numerical modeling reproduced this two-stage decarbonation, where the pore pressure increased due to low-temperature thermal decarbonation, leading to slip weakening on the fault plane even at 400–500 °C; i.e., 200–300 °C lower than previously reported temperatures. Thus, the presence of small amounts of low-crystalline dolomite in a fault plane may lead to a severely reduced shear strength due to thermal decomposition at ~400 °C with a small slip weakening distance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations Version 2.0

This report explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) as a transformative tool to enhance fault-tolerant operations in electrical distribution systems. Leveraging DLT's core attributes, including an immutable decentralized ledger, distributed consensus mechanisms, and state replication capabilities, this study focuses on three critical use cases. A central aspect of this research centers on the utilization of a consensus-driven ledger, providing actors within the system, such as distributed resources, with access to a reliable data repository. This empowers these actors to collaborate effectively and make informed decisions, all securely recorded on the blockchain. The first use case concentrates on data configuration, utilizing mathematical criteria---particularly, the chi-squared test for gross error detection---to identify trustworthy sensors for advanced decision-making. Building upon this foundation of trust, the second use case, topology identification, accurately determines circuit breaker states, unveiling the distribution network's topology. Ultimately, the third use case leverages this trust to execute switching actions, reconfiguring feeders and restoring power to disconnected customers after fault events. The concept of trust serves as a cornerstone in this approach, marking a departure from traditional fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR) methods. Additionally, the blockchain-based architecture introduces decentralization, empowering disconnected areas to make autonomous decisions, even when communication with a central control center is disrupted. The primary contributions of this report are twofold: (1) a novel approach for evaluating distribution system voltage areas while preserving data ownership and (2) the implementation of interactions between distribution network areas using the actor model. Unlike the previous sequential approach for evaluating the area connection voltages, which required a radial network topology, this study's area model reduction enables a more versatile approach. The area model reduction addresses issues of prolonged data waiting times and multiple points of failure within the previous approach. Notably, the presented evaluation for the reduced network model area connection reveals a significant increase in the differences in voltage magnitudes. Simulation and evaluation of area agents across four distinct cases elucidate the area-level interaction behavior during a fault event. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed distributed FLISR (DFLISR) approach can successfully restore service to an affected area. Varying message delays and message loss probabilities in each simulation case underscore their impacts on restoration times, ranging from 3 min and 32 s to 6 min and 19 s. In contrast, power is not restored in an area in one of our simulation cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Structure-dependent clustering-to-declustering solute segregation transitions near disconnections

Grain-boundary disconnections, characterized by a step and a dislocation, are pervasive interfacial line defects that play a critical role in governing the properties and performance of nanocrystalline alloys. Although segregation of alloying elements is frequently observed at GB disconnections, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood, particularly at elevated temperatures and non-dilute conditions. In this study, we employ atomistic simulations to study the segregation behavior of Ag at various faulted disconnections in Cu as a model material system. Our results demonstrate a pronounced size and compactness effect on the segregation behavior: more compact faulted disconnection structures promote the formation of Ag segregation clusters due to a highly localized tensile field, whereas more spread faulted disconnection structures (i.e., with wider partial dislocation spacing) exhibit much weaker clustering tendencies. Furthermore, with increasing temperature, Ag clustering in small disconnections initially intensifies and then disappears, indicating a thermally driven transition from clustering to declustering segregation behavior.

Disconnections↗

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reduced-Order Parameterized Short-Circuit Current Model of Inverter-Interfaced Distributed Generators

The short-circuit response of inverter-interfaced distributed generators (IIDGs) is not adequately represented in many conventional protection studies. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of IIDG behavior during grid faults and proposes a more accurate reduced-order parameterized short-circuit current (RPSC) model of inverters. Typical inverter components are thoroughly investigated to identify those that play dominant roles during faults. The paper shows that the current limiter is the dominant factor for the steady-state fault-current of inverter; while the inverter filter along with the severity of the voltage disturbance largely determine the initial transient spike of inverter fault current. The proposed model is low-order and can be used in large scale simulations. The parameters of the proposed RPSC model can be extracted from laboratory experiments without requiring proprietary manufacturer information. The proposed fault-current model is analogous to the well-known synchronous machine model that segregates the inverter fault current into subtransient, transient, and steady-state fault currents. Finally, experimental and simulation tests are presented to validate the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Protection of 100% Inverter-dominated Power Systems with Grid-Forming Inverters and Protection Relays – Gap Analysis and Expert Interviews

This report summarizes a gap analysis resulting from a literature review and expert interviews conducted by subject matter experts from Sandia National Laboratory, Siemens, and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in Spring 2023. The gap analysis consists of two main parts: The fault-ride through (FRT) behavior of grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBR) and the response of state-of-the-art protection relays to the fault currents and voltages from GFM IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probing the Damage Zone at Parkfield

Rocks are heterogeneous materials that exhibit nonlinear elastic (anelastic) behavior at scales ranging from the laboratory to Earth. In the laboratory, typical, complex relationships exist between stress and strain that include hysteresis, finite relaxation times, strain rate, and history dependence. These behaviors are linked to important characteristics such as stress, porosity, permeability, material integrity, and material failure. In this work, we adopted a “pump-probe” type experiment common in laboratory studies, using solid earth tides as the low-frequency pump and empirical Green's function as the high-frequency probe. By probing the velocity at different points in the pump cycle, we constrained important information about the strain-modulus relationship. Near the San Andreas Fault, we observed strongly nonlinear elastic behavior that characterizes the damage zone. We also constrained important aspects of hysteretic behavior that are related to damage properties and possibly pore pressure. Away from the fault, the nonlinear behavior is diminished.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stacking Fault Induced Symmetry Breaking in van der Waals Nanowires

While traditional ferroelectrics are based on polar crystals in bulk or thin film form, two-dimensional and layered materials can support mechanisms for symmetry breaking between centrosymmetric building blocks, e.g., by creating low-symmetry interfaces in van der Waals stacks. Here, we introduce an approach toward symmetry breaking in van der Waals crystals that relies on the spontaneous incorporation of stacking faults in a nonpolar bulk layer sequence. The concept is realized in nanowires consisting of Se-rich group IV monochalcogenide (GeSe 1–x S x ) alloys, obtained by vapor–liquid–solid growth. The single crystalline wires adopt a layered structure in which the nonpolar A-B bulk stacking along the nanowire axis is interrupted by single-layer stacking faults with local A-A' stacking. Density functional theory explains this behavior by a reduced stacking fault formation energy in GeSe (or Se-rich GeSe 1–x S x alloys). Computations demonstrate that, similar to monochalcogenide monolayers, the inserted A-layers should show a spontaneous electric polarization with a switching barrier consistent with a Curie temperature above room temperature. Second-harmonic generation signals are consistent with a variable density of stacking faults along the wires. Here, our results point to possible routes for designing ferroelectrics via the layer stacking in van der Waals crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Disconnection-Mediated Transition in Segregation Structures at Twin Boundaries

Twin boundaries play an important role in the thermodynamics, stability, and mechanical properties of nanocrystalline metals. Understanding their structure and chemistry at the atomic scale is key to guide strategies for fabricating nanocrystalline materials with improved properties. In this work, we report an unusual segregation phenomenon at gold-doped platinum twin boundaries, which is arbitrated by the presence of disconnections, a type of interfacial line defect. By using atomistic simulations, we show that disconnections containing a stacking fault can induce an unexpected transition in the interfacial-segregation structure at the atomic scale, from a bilayer, alternating-segregation structure to a trilayer, segregation-only structure. This behavior is found for faulted disconnections of varying step heights and dislocation characters. Supported by a structural analysis and the classical Langmuir–McLean segregation model, we reveal that this phenomenon is driven by a structurally induced drop of the local pressure across the faulted disconnection accompanied by an increase in the segregation volume.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault Heterogeneities From Newly Detected Small Magnitude Earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is known to host M9 megathrust ruptures; however, no such event has occurred in historical observation. The distribution and characteristics of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes can be used to determine the behavior of the megathrust fault but are notably absent offshore the CSZ due to the distance from onshore seismometers. We use automated subspace detection coupled with an onshore-offshore seismic deployment to find small-magnitude earthquakes in the offshore seismogenic zone and analyze their locations in the context of interseismic locking and seismogenic zone extent. Here we detected and located 5,282 earthquakes, 4,096 of which had been previously undetected. We find that the downdip extent of the seismogenic zone as defined by interplate seismicity agrees with the 20% locking contour of the Schmalzle et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GC005172) geodetic model and extends deeper than predicted by previous thermal models. We cannot determine the updip extent of the seismogenic zone; this may be due to a lack of templates for detection in the updip source area, stress shadows updip of asperity loading, and/or strong locking to the trench. We present a map of possible asperities determined by the small earthquakes in this study. Our asperity locations and extents show some, but not complete, agreement with the asperities modeled from the 1700 M9 rupture and geodetic locking models, and good agreement with the paleo-rupture extents determined from offshore turbidites and forearc basin-based asperity estimates. This highlights the need of continued offshore observations over time, and to elucidate fine-scale variation in locking.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Micro- and nano-porosity of the active Alpine Fault zone, New Zealand

Porosity reduction in rocks from a fault core can cause elevated pore fluid pressures and consequently influence the recurrence time of earthquakes. We investigated the porosity distribution in the New Zealand's Alpine Fault core in samples recovered during the first phase of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP-1B) by using two-dimensional nanoscale and three-dimensional microscale imaging. Synchrotron X-ray microtomography-derived analyses of open pore spaces show total microscale porosities in the range of 0.1 %–0.24 %. These pores have mainly non-spherical, elongated, flat shapes and show subtle bipolar orientation. Scanning and transmission electron microscopy reveal the samples' microstructural organization, where nanoscale pores ornament grain boundaries of the gouge material, especially clay minerals. Our data imply that (i) the porosity of the fault core is very small and not connected; (ii) the distribution of clay minerals controls the shape and orientation of the associated pores; (iii) porosity was reduced due to pressure solution processes; and (iv) mineral precipitation in fluid-filled pores can affect the mechanical behavior of the Alpine Fault by decreasing the already critically low total porosity of the fault core, causing elevated pore fluid pressures and/or introducing weak mineral phases, and thus lowering the overall fault frictional strength. We conclude that the current state of very low porosity in the Alpine Fault core is likely to play a key role in the initiation of the next fault rupture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗