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At least 55 records · Page 3

Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood impacts. We present a framework for real-time flood modeling and uncertainty quantification that combines the physics of fluid motion with advances in probabilistic methods. The framework overcomes the prohibitive computational demands of high-fidelity modeling in real-time by using a probabilistic learning method relying on surrogate models that are trained prior to a flood event. This shifts the overwhelming burden of computation to the trivial problem of data storage, and enables forecasting of both flood hazard and its uncertainty at scales that are vital for time-critical decision-making before and during extreme events. The framework has the potential to improve flood prediction and analysis and can be extended to other hazard assessments requiring intense high-fidelity computations in real-time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing multi-source urban flood indicators: satellite, simulation, and citizen-reported data

Urban flooding arises from complex mechanisms, making it challenging to capture accurately with a single detection method. This study evaluates three complementary approaches to detect flooding across three Chicago neighborhoods: (i) Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR), offering weather-independent, high-resolution (10 m) imagery of surface inundation; (ii) the storm water management model (SWMM), simulating combined sewer overflow and drainage performance; and (iii) citizen-generated 311 service requests, capturing observed flooding impacts. By analyzing six storms ranging from severe to mild, we examine how each source uniquely contributes to identifying urban flood events. SAR imagery effectively identifies standing water but can miss brief flooding due to satellite revisit constraints. SWMM provides detailed insights into system-wide drainage behavior yet may underestimate localized street-level flooding. Meanwhile, 311 calls reflect real-world flooding impacts but are vulnerable to underreporting. Statistical overlap analysis highlights chronic flood hotspots repeatedly identified across multiple detection methods, indicating persistent infrastructure and topographic vulnerabilities. Temporal analysis further reveals that while SWMM flooding aligns closely with rainfall peaks, 311 calls typically precede or persist beyond these peaks. Our findings emphasize the value of using satellite observations, hydrological modeling, and resident-reported data in a complementary manner to better interpret patterns in flood timing, severity, and spatial distribution—providing insights that can inform targeted infrastructure improvements and contribute to urban flood resilience planning.

311↗

Hurricanes and turbulent floods threaten arsenic-contaminated coastal soils and vulnerable communities

Coastal environments, particularly those adjacent to Superfund sites, are at increased risk of contaminant release during natural disasters, posing serious threats to nearby communities. To investigate this issue, we employed an advanced laboratory flood simulator to impose arsenic-contaminated sediments to turbulent flooding events. We further monitored changes in arsenic collocation and solid-phase speciation using advanced synchrotron radiation-based techniques to understand the impacts of flooding on arsenic mobility. Our results demonstrate that turbulent conditions significantly enhance the resuspension of arsenic-rich sediments, resulting in increased arsenic release into the water. This mobilization is driven by the erosion of the reduced sediments and the redox-mediated transformation and dissolution of Fe and Mn (oxyhydr) oxides, which promote the release of As(III). We found that arsenic speciation on resuspended particles is closely tied to shear stress, with As(V) prevailing at low stress and the more toxic As(III) dominating at higher stress levels. In the post-erosion phase, solid-phase As(III) decreased while dissolved As(III) increased, indicating ongoing desorption. The persistence of multiple arsenic species on resuspended particles marks them as potential long-range transport vectors. Thus, the environmental impact of flooding and sediment resuspension extends beyond the event itself, raising longer-term concerns for arsenic mobility. Our comprehensive geospatial analysis revealed substantial overlap between arsenic-contaminated soils and regions at high risk of flooding and hurricanes across the conterminous United States. This overlap disproportionately impacts economically disadvantaged and marginalized communities. Approximately 40 million Americans reside within 10 kilometers of these high-risk contaminated zones, with nearly 28 million exposed to hurricane threats and around 18 million vulnerable to flooding risks. Alarmingly, over 40% of those affected by hurricanes and 33% of those impacted by flooding belong to underrepresented minority and low-income populations. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted mitigation strategies to protect public health and address environmental justice concerns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SpaceNet 8 - The Detection of Flooded Roads and Buildings

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters (i.e. wildfires, storms, floods) has increased over recent decades. Extreme weather can often be linked to climate change, and human population expansion and urbanization have led to a growing risk. In particular floods due to large amounts of rainfall are of rising severity and are causing loss of life, destruction of buildings and infrastructure, erosion of arable land, and environmental hazards around the world. Expanding urbanization along rivers and creeks often includes opening flood plains for building construction and river straightening and dredging speeding up the flow of water. In a flood event, rapid response is essential which requires knowledge which buildings are susceptible to flooding and which roads are still accessible. To this aim, SpaceNet 8 is the first remote sensing machine learning training dataset combining building footprint detection, road network extraction, and flood detection covering 850km 2, including 32k buildings and 1,300km roads of which 13% and 15% are flooded, respectively.

Arndt, Jacob↗

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers

Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.

Flood Simulation↗

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strategies for Flood Resilience and Grid Investment Among Iowa's Electric Distribution Utilities

Flooding poses a growing threat to Iowa's electric distribution system, yet utilities face significant data and modeling challenges in planning effective resilience investments. This report provides a foundational assessment of how distribution utilities in Iowa, investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative, approach resilience planning, with a focus on flood risk. It combines hazard characterization, review of state and utility practices, and application of NLR's Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Systems (ERAD) and Capacity Expansion Decision Support for Distribution Networks (CADET) tools. Using FEMA floodplains, Iowa Flood Center depth grids, and utility infrastructure data, the analysis quantifies asset exposure, simulates outage risks, and evaluates resilience strategies such as pole hardening, undergrounding, and substation protection. Results indicate that while feeder-level upgrades provide incremental benefits, the most significant reductions in outage risk are achieved through targeted substation interventions. The report highlights key data gaps, such as limited elevation data and fragility functions, and underscores the need for probability-weighted investment frameworks to address both frequent and catastrophic flood events. These insights aim to support utilities, state agencies, and federal partners in prioritizing resilience investments that safeguard Iowa's electric grid against future flooding.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States

Economic damages from riverine flooding are expected to grow because of climate change. Yet, there are few 7 studies analyzing flooding damages in the U.S. that clearly measure the roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability 8 separately and locally. A lack of this knowledge prohibits spatially detailed predictions of future damages. By being 9 able to separate into these three risk factors, we provide all necessary inputs for uncertainty analysis of the flooding-10 damages forecasts that can incorporate new predictive scenarios for each component. To analyze the flooding risk 11 factors of non-coastal counties within the contiguous U.S. between 1999-2018, we gathered information on (1) 12 property and human damages from flooding, (2) maximum annual river discharge, (3) the number of housing units 13 and the years in which they were built, and (4) the incidence of flooding events. We used the method of trimmed 14 least absolute deviated and trimmed least square estimators to obtain the individual impact of hazard, exposure, and 15 vulnerability in the context of censored flooding damages for panel data. The resulting estimates indicate that 16 exposure has been the main driver of flooding risk for most counties in the U.S. Here, we use these estimates to describe 17 the main source of flooding risk for non-coastal counties for the 1999-2018 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Field surveying data of low-cost networked flood sensors in southeast Texas

Floods are common natural disasters worldwide and pose substantial risks to life, property, food production, and natural resources. Effective measures for flood mitigation and warning are essential. Southeast Texas is still at significant risk of flooding, and Lamar University is assisting the region with asset management of a flood sensor network for flooding events. This network provides real-time water stage information. Lamar University developed a survey program to measure elevation and coordinates at each sensor site location to make this data more useful for flood monitoring and mapping. This paper overviews the measurement of the elevation and coordinates of 74 networked flood sensors and various flood stage thresholds at critical points that flood decision-makers can use for reference at each site. In the first phase of this program, these sensors were deployed throughout a 7-county region spanning nearly 6,000 square miles in Southeast Texas. The latitude and longitude of the sensors and their elevations were determined using survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology. Various Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were utilized for post-processing to achieve sub-inch resolution. The flood stage thresholds, water level sensors elevation, and the elevations and positions of other critical surrounding points are viewable to the public through two online repositories and a web-based sensor management dashboard. The data is used to aid with decisions related to road closures or modeling efforts by mitigation decision-makers, emergency managers, and the public, including the Texas Department of Transportation, Houston Transtar, the National Weather Service, and the Sabine River Authority of Texas (SRA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effectiveness of nature-based solutions to reduce flooding in Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA) using SWMM-HEC based flood model

Nature-based solutions (NbS) have gained significant attention as strategies for addressing urban environmental challenges, particularly since the establishment of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. However, the current research on NbS for urban flood management lacks comprehensive methodological approaches for identifying suitable areas and evaluating their effectiveness across different urban settings. Here, this study attempts to fill this gap by proposing a methodological framework integrating multi-criteria analysis with a SWMM-HEC-based hydrologic and hydraulic (HH) model to assess the suitability of NbS for the Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA), consisting of Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, and Rock Island. Eight NbS options-green roofs, rain gardens, infiltration trenches, permeable pavements, vegetative swales, dry detention basins, retention ponds, and rain barrels/cisterns - were considered based on volumetric efficiency and runoff reduction efficiency. The study reveals that implementing the proposed NbS could have substantially reduced flood depths in key historical flood events by 21% in 1993, 15% in 2008, 16% in 2011, 23% in 2014, 40% in 2019, and 10% in 2023. The findings highlight a critical trade-off between peak runoff and NbS implementation: while NbS effectively reduce flood impacts, they also enhance volumetric efficiency by approximately 43%. In high-density areas of the QCMA, flood depth reductions of around 20% suggest that NbS are a viable solution for dense urban environments with limited space. This shows the potential for integrating NbS into existing infrastructure, offering a promising approach for cities facing increasing flooding risks. The proposed methodology provides a practical framework for incorporating NbS into urban stormwater management, addressing gaps in optimizing NbS performance, and offering a pathway to scale their application in other urban areas with various environmental and social contexts.

CMIP6↗

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extremely rapid, Lagrangian modeling of 2D flooding: A rivulet-based approach

Estimates of potential flood inundation areas and depths are critical to informing the preparedness, response, and investment decisions of many government agencies and private sector organizations, especially under a changing climate. The standard modeling approaches, however, are often either computationally intensive or constrained in their accuracy or applicability. A novel, rivulet-based, 2D model of pluvial flooding is described in this article that is 10,000 to 10 million times less computationally complex than the full solution of the shallow water equations, yet achieves inundation area hit rates of between 0.8 and 0.9 and relative absolute mean errors of 10%-20% across a wide range of flow depths. This combination of accuracy and efficiency will enable real-time depth estimates during flood events, detailed sensitivity analyses, and the generation of large ensembles to support broad uncertainty analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Controlling saturation to improve per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) removal in biochar-amended stormwater bioretention systems

Black carbon-amended bioretention systems are an increasingly popular strategy for the removal of organic contaminants, including poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and other trace organic contaminants (TOrCs), from urban stormwater. Many PFASs preferentially accumulate at the air–water interface, but detention time requirements for stormwater bioretention systems typically result in full saturation of the bioretention systems, effectively removing their air–water interfaces. This study assessed the effect of bioretention system saturation on removal of PFASs, metals, and hydrophilic TOrCs. A field-aged mixture of 40% v/v sand, 30% v/v zeolite, and 30% v/v biochar was packed into columns which were operated with hydraulic controls to remain unsaturated or fully saturated throughout the duration of the experiment. Twenty-four storm events sized to a 95th percentile storm at a California, United States military site were simulated using synthetic stormwater fortified with aqueous film forming foam-derived PFASs, TOrCs, and metals to mimic real-world conditions. Unsaturated conditions outperformed saturated conditions for removal of all PFASs analyzed. A simulated inadvertent system perturbation (i.e. flooding event) in the unsaturated columns did not result in significantly greater mobilization of PFAS mass, suggesting that more sorption to the biochar occurred as a result of the transient retention of PFASs at the air–water interface reducing kinetic sorption limitations. Overall, maintaining unsaturated conditions in a biofilter may extend the sorptive filter lifetime for PFASs by up to 83%. The results have implications for bioretention system application and design for PFAS removal in contaminated catchment areas.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗