Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Fracture prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Seismic Activity at the Tiger Stripe Fractures on Enceladus, Saturn, From an Analog Study of Tidally Modulated Icequakes Within the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Abstract Dissipation of tidal energy is expected to generate seismicity on icy‐ocean worlds; however, the distribution and timing of this seismic activity throughout an orbital cycle is not known. We used new observations from an icy‐ocean‐world analog environment on Earth to examine the relationship between tidally driven tensile stress and seismic activity within an ice shell. We investigated a pair of rifts within Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf which are tidally stressed in a manner analogous to the orbital cycle of tidal stress experienced by Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures. We found that seismic activity at the Antarctic rifts is sensitive to both the amplitude and the rate of tensile stress across the rifts. We combined these findings with calculated stress values along Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures to predict seismic‐activity levels expected along the ice‐shell fractures. We predict a peak in seismicity along the four Tiger Stripe Fractures when Enceladus is 90°–120° past pericenter in its orbit around Saturn, at which point tensile stresses would reach ∼2/3 of their maximum value. We also used the magnitude distribution of icequakes along Antarctic rifts to investigate implications for the likely size of stick‐slip rupture patches along icy faults on Enceladus. Our findings predict that the Tiger Stripe Fractures should produce sustained, low‐magnitude seismic events that involve rupture along discrete portions of each fracture's total length. We predict that seismicity would fall to 50% of peak levels when stresses across the Tiger Stripe Fractures are dominantly compressional.

Olsen, Kira G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multiscale phase field fracture approach based on the non-affine microsphere model for rubber-like materials

Rubber-like materials have a broad scope of applications due to their unique properties like high stretchability and increased toughness. Hence, computational models for simulating their fracture behavior are paramount for designing them against failures. In this study, the phase field fracture approach is integrated with a multiscale polymer model for predicting the fracture behavior in elastomers. At the microscale, damaged polymer chains are modeled to be made up of a number of elastic chain segments pinned together. Using the phase field approach, the damage in the chains is represented using a continuous variable. Both the bond stretch internal energy and the entropic free energy of the chain are assumed to drive the damage, and the advantages of this assumption are expounded. A framework for utilizing the non-affine microsphere model for damaged systems is proposed here by considering the minimization of a hypothetical undamaged free energy, ultimately connecting the chain stretch to the macroscale deformation gradient. At the macroscale, a thermodynamically consistent formulation is derived in which the total dissipation is assumed to be mainly due to the rupture of molecular bonds. Using a monolithic scheme, the proposed model is numerically implemented and the resulting three-dimensional simulation predictions are compared with existing experimental data. The capability of the model to qualitatively predict the propagation of complex crack paths and quantitatively estimate the overall fracture behavior is verified. Additionally, the effect of the length scale parameter on the predicted fracture behavior is studied for an inhomogeneous system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing Upscaling Approach for Swarming Hydraulic Fractures Observed at Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site through Multiscale Simulations

We show that this work aims to address a challenge posed by recent observations of tightly spaced hydraulic fractures in core samples from the hydraulic fracturing test site (HFTS) in the Middle Wolfcamp Formation. Many fractures in retrieved cores have subfoot spacing, which is at odds with conventional models in which usually one hydraulic fracture is initiated per cluster. Models assuming a single fracture at each cluster, although a common practice, often predict excessive fracture propagation that is inconsistent with microseismic observation. Here, we aim to develop a numerical approach to effectively account for densely spaced hydraulic fractures in field-scale simulations. Because it is impractical to explicitly model all aforementioned fractures, we develop a new upscaling law that enables existing simulation tools to predict reservoir response to fracture swarms. The upscaling law is derived based on an energy equivalence argument and validated through multiscale simulations using a high-fidelity code, GEOS. The swarming fractures are first modeled with a spacing that is much smaller than the cluster spacing; these fractures are then approximated by an upscaled, single fracture based on the proposed upscaling law. The upscaled fracture is shown to successfully match the energy input rate and produce the total fracture aperture and average propagation length of the explicitly simulated swarm. Afterward, the upscaling approach is further implemented in 3D field-scale simulations and validated against the HFTS microseismic data of a horizontal well. Our results show that hydraulic fracture swarming can significantly affect fracture propagation behaviors compared with the propagation of single fractures as assumed by conventional modeling approaches. Under the considered situations, the conventional treatment yields fast propagation speed that far exceeds that indicated by the microseismic data. We also illustrate that this discrepancy can be reduced readily through the implementation of the upscaling law. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for the fracture swarming effect in field-scale simulations and the efficacy of this approach to enable realistic predictions of reservoir responses to fracture swarms, without the need to model tightly spaced fractures individually.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive machine learning approaches for the microstructural behavior of multiphase zirconium alloys

Abstract Zirconium alloys are widely used in harsh environments characterized by high temperatures, corrosivity, and radiation exposure. These alloys, which have a hexagonal closed packed (h.c.p.) structure thermo-mechanically degrade, when exposed to severe operating environments due to hydride formation. These hydrides have a different crystalline structure, than the matrix, which results in a multiphase alloy. To accurately model these materials at the relevant physical scale, it is necessary to fully characterize them based on a microstructural fingerprint, which is defined here as a combination of features that include hydride geometry, parent and hydride texture and crystalline structure of these multiphase alloys. Hence, this investigation will develop a reduced order modeling approach, where this microstructural fingerprint is used to predict critical fracture stress levels that are physically consistent with microstructural deformation and fracture modes. Machine Learning (ML) methodologies based on Gaussian Process Regression, random forests, and multilayer perceptrons (MLP) were used to predict material fracture critical stress states. MLPs, or neural networks, had the highest accuracy on held-out test sets across three predetermined strain levels of interest. Hydride orientation, grain orientation or texture, and hydride volume fraction had the greatest effect on critical fracture stress levels and had partial dependencies that were highly significant, and in comparison hydride length and hydride spacing have less effects on fracture stresses. Furthermore, these models were also used accurately predicted material response to nominal applied strains as a function of the microstructural fingerprint.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Coupled Hydraulic Fracturing Simulators Using Laboratory-Scale Experiments

In this work, we aim to verify the predictions of the numerical simulators, which are used for designing field-scale hydraulic stimulation experiments. Although a strong theoretical understanding of this process has been gained over the past few decades, numerical predictions of fracture propagation in low-permeability rocks still remains a challenge. Against this background, we performed controlled laboratory-scale hydraulic fracturing experiments in granite samples, which not only provides high-quality experimental data but also a well-characterized experimental set-up. Using the experimental pressure responses and the final fracture sizes as benchmark, we compared the numerical predictions of two coupled hydraulic fracturing simulators—CSMP and GEOS. Both the simulators reproduced the experimental pressure behavior by implementing the physics of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) and lubrication theory within a reasonable degree of accuracy. The simulation results indicate that even in the very low-porosity (1–2 %) and low-permeability (10 -18 m 2 - 10 -19 m 2 ) crystalline rocks, which are usually the target of EGS, fluid-loss into the matrix and unsaturated flow impacts the formation breakdown pressure and the post-breakdown pressure trends. Therefore, underestimation of such parameters in numerical modeling can lead to significant underestimation of breakdown pressure. The simulation results also indicate the importance of implementing wellbore solvers for considering the effect of system compressibility and pressure drop due to friction in the injection line. The varying injection rate as a result of decompression at the instant of fracture initiation affects the fracture size, while the entry friction at the connection between the well and the initial notch may cause an increase in the measured breakdown pressure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards real-time forecasting of natural gas production by harnessing graph theory for stochastic discrete fracture networks

In this work, we compare hydrocarbon production curves obtained from a graph-based reduced-order model with the high-fidelity Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) predictions for a fracture network created using data from a real shale site. We observe that the bounds for the high fidelity DFN model lie within the bounds for the reduced order model, implying that the reduced-order model provides a conservative estimate. Moreover, we found that except for first-passage times and late arriving mass, the production curves from the reduced-order model predict transport accurately. However, it is to be noted that the results are inspite of trading a three-dimensional geometry for a reduced system in the form of a graph, one that is 500–1000 times faster in terms of computational efficiency (for this particular application). In addition, we also compare the production curves for large drawdown and small drawdown using our graph approach. The reduced-order model is successful in showing that the long term productivity is higher in case of small drawdown although the initial productivity is higher for large drawdown. Thus, this reduced-order model offers great potential in uncertainty quantification for production, as well as in providing operators with information to make real-time decisions for optimal production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fluid-driven fractures in granular media: Insights from numerical investigations

We investigate the mechanisms of opening-mode fracture initiation in granular media. The study is based on a simulation of grain-scale fluid-grain interactions through a coupled numerical approach in which the discrete element method is used to solve for the mechanics of a solid granular medium, and computational fluid dynamics is used to model fluid flow and drag forces. In this work, we present benchmark problems with analytical solutions and validate this numerical model against experiments on a viscous-drag-driven cavity in the literature. Additional simulation results show fracture initiation mechanisms in a random granular packing subjected to constant boundary stresses and to fluid injection with a localized source. The dimensionless variable $F_s/F_{sk}$ (ratio of seepage force $F_s$ and skeletal force $F_{sk}$) incorporates the impacts of physical properties and injection parameters including fluid viscosity, injection velocity, grain size, and effective stresses, and it has been used as a criterion separating regimes of fluid invasion and drag-driven fracture opening. Our simulation results show that $F_s/F_{sk}$ in combination with $τ_1$ (ratio of diffusion time from hydromechanical coupling and injection time) serves as a prediction of fracture opening within granular packing. We suggest a simple criterion ($F_s/F_{sk}$ > 1 or $τ_1$ > 0.17) that is valid for various types of granular media and injection conditions to determine if fracture opening will occur. Among other applications, this study is useful to predict the initiation and propagation of fractures in natural sediments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation and analysis of the 3D double shock-induced recompression of spall using a hybrid PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM

In this work, an innovative hybrid algorithm PAGOSA with FLIP + MPM is first presented by coupling PAGOSA with the particle FLIP + MPM, and applied to systematically exploring the 3D recompression of spall induced by double-shock waves in ductile materials as the few existing studies are currently limited to the pure longitudinal recompression of spall, and ignore the 3D effects. This algorithm solves the difficulties the grid-based methods encounter when applied to capturing the fracture in material. We first validate the capabilities of PAGOSA with FLIP + MPM to predict different fracture/fragmentation cases by solving two benchmark problems and comparing with the analytical solutions or the experiment results. The convergences and the infinity-norm errors are also investigated. Subsequently, the 3D effects are demonstrated by simulating the spallation in material using PAGOSA with FLIP + MPM and comparing with those in the longitudinal cases. Additionally, some factors that affect the spallation with 3D effects are also discussed. Finally, the recompressions of spall in material with/without 3D effects are systematically simulated and analyzed. The recompression of spall driven by a high explosive is also simulated to show the ability of PAGOSA with FLIP + MPM to handle this kind of problem. The conditions that can lead to a recompression of spall are explored. Also, numerical results show that PAGOSA with FLIP + MPM can accurately predict different fracture cases, that the 3D effects play an important role in fracture/fragmentation, and the recompression of spall is very sensitive to the occurrence conditions, shows great differences when considering 3D effects in real applications. Moreover, the present hybrid method can be easily extended to other grid-based techniques employed for fracture in materials.

3D effects↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using in-situ strain measurements to evaluate the accuracy of stress estimation procedures from fracture injection/shut-in tests

Fracture injection/shut-in tests are commonly used to measure the state of stress. Injection creates a hydraulic fracture (or in some cases, opens a preexisting fracture), and then the pressure after shut-in is monitored to identify fracture closure. Different interpretation procedures have been proposed for estimating closure, and the procedures sometimes yield significantly different results. In this study, direct, in-situ strain measurements are used to observe fracture reopening and closure. The tests were performed as part of the EGS Collab project, a mesoscale project performed at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The tests were instrumented with the SIMFIP tool, a double-packer probe with a high-resolution three-dimensional borehole displacement sensor. The measurements provide a direct observation of the fracture closure signature, enabling a high-fidelity estimate of the fracture closure stress (ie, the normal stress on the fracture). In two of the four tests, injection created an opening mode fracture, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the minimum principal stress. In the other two tests, injection probably opened preexisting natural fractures, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the normal stress on the fractures. The strain measurements are compared against different proposed methods for estimating closure stress from pressure transients. The shut-in transients are analyzed with two techniques that are widely used in the field of petroleum engineering – the ‘tangent’ method and the ‘compliance’ method. In three of the four tests, the tangent method significantly underestimates the closure stress. The compliance method is reasonably accurate in all four tests. Closure stress is also interpreted using two other commonly-used methods – ‘first deviation from linearity’ and the method of Hayashi and Haimson. In comparison with the SIMFIP data, these methods tend to overestimate the closure stress, evidently because they identify closure from early-time transient effects, such as near-wellbore tortuosity. In two of the tests, microseismic imaging provides an independent estimate of the size of the fracture created by injection. When combined with a simple mass balance calculation, the SIMFIP stress measurements yield predictions of fracture size that are reasonably consistent with the estimates from microseismic. In conclusion, the calculations imply an apparent fracture toughness 2-3x higher than typical laboratory-derived values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Mini-CT Specimens for Fracture Toughness Characterization of Irradiated Highly Embrittled Weld

In the 1990’s, the Heavy Section Steel Irradiation Program at the ORNL performed investigation of the shape of the fracture toughness master curve for reactor pressure vessel steel highly embrittled because of irradiation exposure. A radiation-sensitive reactor pressure vessel (RPV) weld with intentionally enhanced copper content, designated KS-01, has been characterized in terms of static initiation (KJc) and Charpy impact toughness in the unirradiated and irradiated conditions. The objective of this original project was to investigate the ability of highly embrittled material to maintain the shape of the unirradiated transition fracture toughness curve, as well as to examine the ability of the Charpy 41-J shift to predict the fracture toughness shift at such high level of embrittlement. Irradiation of this weld was performed at the University of Michigan Ford Reactor in the new HSSI irradiation-anneal-reirradiation (IAR) facility. Broken specimens from that project have been saved in ORNL storage. To verify applicability of Mini-CT specimens for fracture toughness characterization of RPV materials as part of the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, Mini-CT specimens were machined from broken Charpy specimens and tested according to ASTM E1921 standard. As result of this study, the fracture toughness of this weld derived by testing Mini-CT specimens in the unirradiated and irradiated conditions is compared to previously reported fracture toughness derived by large number of conventional specimens.

Sokolov, Mikhail A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring fracture dilation and shear slip from surface deformation utilising trained surrogate models

An important task in energy and CO 2 storage (sequestration) in the subsurface is to verify that the surrounding fractures and faults are not activated, acting as leakage pathways. This is achievable through effective and efficient Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MMV) plans. In this work, two surrogate models are trained to captures dilation (opening) and shear deformation of fractures, and the associated surface deformation. The trained surrogate model, based on conditional Generative-Adversarial Networks (cGAN) receives fracture apertures from dilational fractures together with fracture slips from shear fractures and predicts the combined surface deformation. An inversion algorithm based on Bayesian framework is proposed to identify the geometry of both types of fractures, as well as volume of dilational fractures and deformation moment induced by shear fractures, all from the measured surface deformation data. The inversion algorithm utilises the Differential Evolution (DE) optimisation technique that has the superior performance in finding the global minimum of cost function. The proposed surrogate-assisted inversion successfully inferred the unknown dip, dip direction and the volume of the dilational fractures as well as the induced deformation moment in shear fractures. The model was further tested for the inversion of a field hydraulic fracturing tilt dataset applying different scenarios with varying unknowns to show the model's performance, as well as incorporating shear deformation for better match with the observed data.

Dilation and shear↗
DOE OSTI2021

Crack tip microplasticity mediated by microstructure gradients

Abstract Traditional fracture theories infer damage at cracks (local field) by surveying loading conditions away from cracks (far field). This approach has been successful in predicting ductile fracture, but it normally assumes isotropic and homogeneous materials. However, myriads of manufacturing procedures induce heterogeneous microstructural gradients that can affect the accuracy of traditional fracture models. This work presents a microstructure‐sensitive finite element approach to explore the shielding effects of grain size and crystallographic orientation gradients on crack tip microplasticity and blunting. A dislocation density‐based crystal plasticity model conveys texture evolution, grain size effects, and directional hardening by computing the constraint from dislocation structures. The results demonstrate that the microstructure can act as a buffer between the local and far fields that affects the crack tip microplasticity variability. For nominal opening loading, grain size and texture affect the local ductility and induce a non‐negligible multiaxial plastic deformation. Furthermore, driving forces based on measuring displacements away from the crack tip are less affected by the microstructure, which suggests that traditional experimental methods smear out important crack tip variability.

Castelluccio, Gustavo M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel peridynamics-based approach to predict pharmaceutical tablet robustness

The pharmaceutical drug product development process can be greatly accelerated through the use of modeling and simulation techniques to predict the manufacturability and performance of a given formulation. The anticipation and possible mitigation of tablet damage due to manufacturing stresses represents a specific area of interest in the pharmaceutical industry for predicting formulation and tableting performance. While the finite element method (FEM) has been extensively used for predicting the mechanical behavior of powder material in the compaction processes, a shortcoming of the approach is the inherent difficulty to predict discontinuities (e.g., damage or cracking) within a tablet as FEM is a continuum-based approach. In this work, we propose a novel method utilizing peridynamics (PD), a numerical method that can capture discontinuities such as tablet fracture, to predict the evolution of damage and breakage in pharmaceutical tablets. The approach links (1) the finite element method – to elucidate the behavior of powders during die compaction – with (2) the peridynamics modeling technique – to model the discontinuous nature of damage and predict tablet breakage during the critical stages of unloading and ejection from the compression die. This short communication presents a proof of concept including a workflow to calibrate the linked FEM-PD simulation models. Further, it demonstrates promising results from a preliminary experimental validation of the approach. Following further development, this approach could be used to guide the optimization of compression processes through targeted changes to formulation material properties, compression process conditions, and/or tooling geometries to deliver improved process efficiency and tablet robustness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Helium Bubble Growth and Retention Characteristics in Aging Palladium Tritide

The helium-related characteristics of aged palladium tritide, including tritium loss, the formation of He bubbles from tritium decay-induced He atoms, and He thermal desorption behavior are computed using a continuum model of bubble evolution that incorporates the log-normal bubble spacing distribution deduced from 3 He nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measurements. This spacing distribution produces significant differences between mean (expectation) values of the bubble size and pressure and the average (median) values of these aging characteristics obtained by a previous calculation. The new calculations find much of the He is retained in a large quantity of smaller bubbles with higher bubble pressures, improving the overall stability of the bubbles and extending the age of He retention. By contrast, the integrated tritide material characteristics of swelling and tritium pressure are found relatively insensitive to details of the bubble spacing distribution. Inter-bubble fracture is predicted to begin with small, closely-spaced bubbles and progress to include larger bubbles near the onset of rapid He release. The critical concentration for this onset increases almost linearly with material tensile strength and decreases with shear modulus. Release of He from the aging solid is modeled as a growing network of fractured inter-bubble ligaments. For small particle or small grain material, the physical size of the fracture cluster, relative to the material dimensions, becomes important. In contrast with normal aging, inter-bubble fracture occurring during thermal desorption appears to begin with large, widely-spaced bubbles, indicating elevated temperature techniques may be of limited use for evaluating development of the bubble fracture network.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task G, SAFENET Final Report

DECOVALEX Task G deals with fracture mechanics at several scales using a combined approach of experimental work, related model development, benchmarking and experimental analysis. Fig. 0.1 provides a graphical abstract for Task G. The experimental basis for the related mechanical (M), hydro-mechanical (HM), and thermo-mechanical (TM) processes comes from the rock mechanics laboratories of Universities of Freiberg (TUBAF) and Edinburgh, as well as the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT). The experimental work in the rock laboratories is closely linked to the underground research laboratories (URLs) Reiche Zeche (Germany), KURT (Korea), and Mont Terri (Switzerland). The scientific key questions are related to fracture permeability evolution under THM conditions, anisotropy effects on fracturing processes, and thermal fracture slip, which are being addressed in specific steps of the task. A large variety of numerical methods have been developed and applied for experimental analysis, ranging from continuum to discontinuum approaches. A detailed comparison of mechanical and hydro-mechanical processes is given in the section 3 via the benchmarking exercises. As a result of DECOVALEX-2023 Task G we further improved our understanding and predictability of fracturing processes under THM conditions. This was based on robust numerical simulation methods and in-depth experimental analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing the Validity of Brazilian Testing Using Digital Image Correlation and Numerical Simulation Techniques

Characterizing the mechanical behavior of rocks plays a crucial role to optimize the fracturing process in unconventional reservoirs. However, due to the intrinsic anisotropy and heterogeneity in unconventional resources, fracture process prediction remains the most significant challenge for sustainable and economic hydrocarbon production. During the deformation tracking under compression, deploying conventional methods (strain gauge, extensometer, etc.) is insufficient to measure the deformation since the physical attachment of the device is restricted to the size of the sample, monitoring limited point-wise deformation, producing difficulties in data retrieval, and a tendency to lose track in failure points, etc. Where conventional methods are limited, the application of digital image correlation (DIC) provides detailed and additional information of strain evolution and fracture patterns under loading. DIC is an image-based optical method that records an object with a camera and monitors the random contrast speckle pattern painted on the facing surface of the specimen. To overcome the existing limitations, this paper presents numerical modeling of Brazilian disc tests under quasi-static conditions to understand the full-field deformation behaviors and finally, it is validated by DIC. As the direct tensile test has limitations in sample preparation and test execution, the Brazilian testing principle is commonly used to evaluate indirectly the tensile strength of rocks. The two-dimensional numerical model was built to predict the stress distribution and full-field deformation on Brazilian disc under compression based on the assumptions of a homogenous, isotropic and linear elastic material. The uniaxial compression test was conducted using the DIC technique to determine the elastic properties of Spider Berea sandstone, which were used as inputs for the simulation model. The model was verified by the analytical solution and compared with the digital image correlation. The numerical simulation results showed that the solutions matched reasonably with the analytical solutions where the maximum deviation of stress distribution was obtained as 14.59%. The strain evolution (normal and shear strains) and displacements along the central horizontal and vertical planes were investigated in three distinguishable percentages of peak loads (20%, 40%, and 90%) to understand the deformation behaviors in rock. The simulation results demonstrated that the strain evolution contours consistently matched with DIC generated contours with a reasonable agreement. The changes in displacement along the central horizontal and vertical planes showed that numerical simulation and DIC generated experimental results were repeatable and matched closely. In terms of validation, Brazilian testing to measure the indirect tensile strength of rocks is still an issue of debate. The numerical model of fracture propagation supported by digital image correlation from this study can be used to explain the fracturing process in the homogeneous material and can be extended to non-homogeneous cases by incorporating heterogeneity, which is essential for rock mechanics field applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Experiments and Well Logs to Predict Caney Shale Static Mechanical Properties During Production with Supervised Machine Learning

Caney shale is one of the emerging oil reservoirs in Oklahoma. Understanding the impact of effective stress on its mechanical properties is critical for predicting hydraulic fracture geometry and overall hydrocarbon production. The objective of our study is to evaluate the impact of effective stress on the dynamic Young’s modulus using ultrasonic velocity measurements for Caney shale samples. A triaxial cell was utilized to measure ultrasonic (P-wave and S-wave) velocities for ten downhole Caney shale samples under various effective stresses to indirectly assess the impact of pore pressure change. The dynamic Young’s moduli estimated from these measurements were integrated with available conventional well logs (excluding sonic logs) and triaxial test results from Benge et al. (2021) to predict the static Young’s modulus using Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The results showed that the estimated dynamic Young’s moduli from ultrasonic measurements were higher than the corresponding static Young’s modulus of cores from the same vertical well at similar depths. With increasing effective stress, the dynamic Young’s modulus increased for all samples. The estimated dynamic-to-static correction factor tended to be higher in zones of high neutron porosity (PHIN) and low density compared to other zones. Finally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for RF and XGBoost models identified depth, gamma ray (GR), and PHIN as key features for predicting the static Young’s modulus. This study enhances our understanding of the dynamic and static Young’s moduli for the Caney shale interval, as a function of effective stress and conventional well logs. The findings from this study can improve predictions of production throughout the well's lifespan by offering insights into the mechanical property degradation resulting from pore pressure depletion.

Kholy, Sherif M.↗