Tuning of cloud parameterizations for radiative heating calculations in GCMs using satellite IR sounding data
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Louis, J.-F.↗
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Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration
A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.
Abramopoulos, F.↗
A Catchment-Based Land Surface Model for GCMs and the Framework for its Evaluation
A new GCM-scale land surface modeling strategy that explicitly accounts for subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on evaporation and runoff is now being explored. In a break from traditional modeling strategies, the continental surface is disaggregated into a mosaic of hydrological catchments, with boundaries that are not dictated by a regular grid but by topography. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is deduced from TOP-MODEL equations with a special treatment of the unsaturated zone. This paper gives an overview of this new approach and presents the general framework for its off-line evaluation over North-America.
Ducharen, A.↗
SAO and Kelvin Waves in the EuroGRIPS GCMS and the UK Meteorological Offices Analyses
This work is an intercomparison of four tropospheric-stratospheric climate models, the Unified Model (UM) of the U.K. Meteorological Office (UKMO), the model of the Free University in Berlin (FUB). the ARPEGE-climat model of the National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM), and the Extended UGAMP GCM (EUGCM) of the Center for Global Atmospheric Modelling (CGAM), against the UKMO analyses. This comparison has been made in the framework of the "GSM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS). SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) aims are to investigate the effects of the middle atmosphere on climate and the GRIPS purpose is to organized a comprehensive assessment of current Middle Atmosphere-Climate Models (MACMs). The models integrations were made without identical contraints e.g. boundary conditions, incoming solar radiation). All models are able to represent the dominant features of the extratropical circulation. In this paper, the structure of the tropical winds and the strengths of the Kelvin waves are examined. Explanations for the differences exhibited. between the models. as well as between models and analyses, are also proposed. In the analyses a rich spectrum of waves (eastward and westward) is present and contributes to drive the SAO (SemiAnnual Oscillation) and the QBO (Quasi-Biennal Oscillation). The amplitude of the Kelvin waves is close to the one observed in UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) data. In agreement with observations, the Kelvin waves generated in the models propagate into the middle atmosphere as wave packets which underlines convective forcing origin. In most models, slow Kelvin waves propagate too high and are hence overestimated in the upper stratosphere and in the mesosphere, except for the UM which is more diffusive. These waves are not sufficient to force realistic westerlies of the QBO or SAO westerly phases. If the SAO is represented by all models only two of them are able to generate westerlies between 10 hPa and 50 hPa. The importance of the role played by subgrided gravity waves is more and more recognized. Actually, the EUGCM which includes a parametrization of gravity waves with a non-zero phase speed is able to simulate. with however some unrealistic features, clear easterly to westerly transitions as well as westerlies downward propagations. Thermal damping is also important in the westerlies forcing in the stratosphere. The model ARPEGE-climat shows more westerlies in the stratosphere than tile other three models probably due to the use of a simplified scheme to predict the ozone distribution in the middle atmosphere.
Amodei, M.↗
Deployment of a Fast-GCMS System to Measure C2 to C5 Carbonyls, Methanol and Ethanol Aboard Aircraft
Through funding of this proposal, a fast response gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer (FGCMS) instrument to measure less than or equal to C4 carbonyl compounds and methanol was developed for the NASA GTE TRACE-P (Global Tropospheric Experiment, Transport And Chemical Evolution Over The Pacific) mission. The system consists of four major components: sample inlet, preconcentration system, gas chromatograph (GC), and detector. The preconcentration system is a custom-built cryogen-conservative system. The GC is a compact, custom-built unit that can be temperature programmed and rapidly cooled. Detection is accomplished with an Agilent Technologies 5973 mass spectrometer. The FGCMS instrument provides positive identification because the compounds are chromatographically separated and mass selected. During TRACE-P, a sample was analyzed every 5 minutes. The FGCMS limit of detection was between 5 and 75 pptv, depending on the compound. The entire instrument package is contained in a standard NASA instrument rack (106 cm x 61 cm x 135 cm), consumes less than 1200 watts and is fully automated with LabViEW 6i. Methods were developed or producing highly accurate gas phase standards for the target compounds and for testing the system in the presence of potential interferents. This report presents data on these tests and on the general overall performance of the system in the laboratory and aboard the DC-8 aircraft during the mission. Vertical profiles for acetaldehyde, methanol, acetone, propanal, methyl ethyl ketone, and butanal from FGCMS data collected over the entire mission are also presented.
Apel, Eric C.↗
The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs
With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.
Martin Turbet↗
Qualitative Headspace GCMS Analysis of Lunar Regolith and Volatile Simulant Mixtures
Introduction: Future Artemis missions aim to return the volatile-bearing samples collected near lunar polar craters. We, as advanced curation scientists, are responsible for developing techniques and methodologies for preserving the integrity of returned samples and the science value those samples contain. The extent to which that preservation is possible, and the trade-offs preservation requires (e.g. monetary costs, sample volume limitations) all must be considered. Even less-than pristine volatile-bearing samples will be of tremendous value to the scientific community seeking to unravel the history of lunar surface volatiles and, more broadly, volatiles in the solar system. A sample collected on the lunar surface will experience at least five distinctive periods during which any changes here referred to as “alteration” will certainly occur at some scale: collection on the lunar surface; transportation back to Earth; long-term storage; curatorial processing; and allocation/distribution. The Planetary Exploration and Astromaterials Research Lab (PEARL) seeks to understand temperature and pressure effects on returned volatile samples by working with high-fidelity volatile-containing regolith simulants, setting the foundation for the future of cold curation. This abstract is focused on gas-surface interactions between LCROSS volatiles and readily available lunar regolith simulants. Experiments involved analyzing differences in headspace gas composition for various combinations of volatile and regolith simulants using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Experimental Procedure: The volatile simulants were chosen based on the molecules detected during the LCROSS mission.1 Stock solutions of condensed lunar volatile analytes were: methanol, 7 N ammonia in methanol, and 0.4% hydrogen sulfide in water. The regolith simulants used were primarily JSC-1A and NU-LHT-4M. Additional regolith simulant control studies were conducted with <150 μm sieved sand and KBr. A nested vial sample preparation approach separated the liquid stock solutions from the regolith, eliminating potential matrix effects between liquid and solid phases. Fifteen microliter aliquots of liquid volatile simulants were added to a 2 mL liquid GC vial and capped in atmosphere. An 18G needle punctured the 2 mL GC vial immediately before being transferred and sealed in a 20 mL GC vial containing 0-0.3 g of regolith simulant, see Figure 1. Separating the analytes ensures any changes observed in the total headspace gases is a result of gas-surface and/or gas-gas interactions. Equipment and Method: Initial GC/MS method development for the separation and identification of relevant headspace gases can be found in Amick, et al. 2023.2 The only hardware change is a different column: a TG-1701MS 30 m × 0.25 mm × 1.00 μm column. The vials were sampled at 10°C, room temperature (~25°C) and 50°C. Low temperature samples were kept in a chilled autosampler stage for at least 1 hour prior to sampling. High temperature samples were agitated at 50°C for 5 minutes immediately prior to injection onto the column. Headspace chromatograms were collected for each combination of temperature, regolith, and volatile simulant, including controls without one or both types of analytes, in triplicate. The chromatogram elution window for each analyte or significant atmospheric gas was identified using the peak mass spectrum cross-referenced with Figure 1.Picture of the nested vial set-up. a NIST MS library search. Each analyte peak was integrated after filtering the mass spectrum trace for the parent or most unique mass-to-charge ratio. For example, the mass-to-charge ratio used to identify, filter for, and integrate the carbon dioxide peak was centered around 44 m/z. Results: Figure 2 shows the integrated peak area for hydrogen sulfide in all combinations of regolith simulants, temperatures, and the addition of ammonia in methanol solution. Multiple repeat experiments with H2S and regolith simulants have confirmed hydrogen sulfide is removed from the headspace within 1 hour when exposed to JSC-1A, NU-LHT-4M and sand (not pictured). The consumption of H2S by lunar regolith simulants at different temperatures indicates surface chemistry will be an integral component in sample integrity and preservation. It is important to note that while the effect of surface chemistry on gaseous hydrogen sulfide is intriguing, further investigation into more chemically accurate regolith simulants is necessary and ongoing. The sulfur in hydrogen sulfide is in its most reduced state while off-the-shelf, terrestrially sourced JSC-1A and NU-LHT-4M are more oxidized than most lunar materials,3which likely leads to different oxidation-reduction reactions than would be expected in lunar regolith. Figure 3 shows the integrated peak area of carbon dioxide for each sample combination that contained ammonia in methanol solution. The addition of ammonia to the GC vials results in a consistent and reproducible decrease in carbon dioxide gas, even at 50°C. The effect became more pronounced when JSC-1A or NU-LHT-4M were present. This set of experiments demonstrated that the sample composition will affect the chemical and physical state of each component present. Future spectroscopic and microscopy experiments will be geared towards identifying the cause for the CO2(g) concentration decrease and the consumption of hydrogen sulfide. As cold and volatile curation scientists, this information provides necessary insight on how to appropriately handle and analyze volatile bearing returned samples, as well as predict the effect chemical composition has on the various sample phases we will analyze upon return to Earth. Unlike traditional curation of geologic materials, the molecules in a sample cannot be identified or processed using the naked eye or even an optical microscope. Volatile curation will require a combination of analytical techniques, including but not limited to highly sensitive gas and solid/condensed phase spectroscopy. This set of experiments has demonstrated the need for more detailed studies of volatile mixtures with mineralogically and geochemically analogous lunar regolith simulants to prepare for the curation of volatile-rich lunar samples from the south polar region of the Moon. References: [1] Colaprete, A., et al. (2010) Science, 330, (463-468). [2] Amick, C. L., et al.(2023) Houston, Texas, [3] Heiken, G. H., et al.(1991) (778-778)
Cecilia L Amick↗
A cautionary note on decadal sea level pressure predictions from GCMs
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Stefan Liess↗
Considering the radiative effects of snow on tropical Pacific Ocean radiative heating profiles in contemporary GCMs using A‐Train observations
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J.‐L. F. Li↗
Detecting Organic Compounds in Martian Soil Analogues Using Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
One of the primary objectives of the 1976 Viking missions was to determine whether organic compounds, possibly of biological origin, were present in the Martian surface soils. The Viking gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) instruments found no evidence for any organic compounds of Martian origin above a few parts per billion in the upper 10 cm of surface soil [l], suggesting the absence of a widely distributed Martian biota. However, Benner et d. have suggested that significant amounts of non-volatile organic compounds, possibly including oxidation products of bioorganic molecules (e.g. carboxylic acids) would not have been detected by the Viking GCMS [2]. Moreover, other key organic compounds important to biology, such as amino acids and nucleobases, would also likely have been missed by the Viking GCMS as these compounds require chemical derivatization to be stable in a GC column [3]. Recent pyrolysis experiments with a Mars soil analogue that had been innoculated with Escherichia coli bacteria have shown that amino acid decomposition products (amines) and nucleobases are among the most abundant products generated after pyrolysis of the bacterial cells [4,5]. At the part per billion level (Viking GCMS detection limit), these pyrolysis products generated from several million bacterial cells per gram of Martian soil would not have been detected by the Viking GCMS instruments [4]. Analytical protocols are under development for upcoming in situ lander opportunities to target several important biological compounds including amino acids and nucleobases. For example, extraction and chemical derivatization techniques [3] are being adapted for space flight use to transform reactive or fragile molecules that would not have been detected by the Viking GCMS instruments, into species that are sufficiently volatile to be detected by GCMS. Recent experiments carried out at NASA Goddard have shown that using this derivatization technique all of the targeted compounds mentioned above can be separated on a GC column and detected by MS at sub-picomole (< 10(exp -l2 mole) levels. With these methods, the detection limit for amino acids, carboxylic acids and nucleobases is several orders of magnitude more sensitive than the Viking GCMS instruments for these compounds. Preliminary results using this analytical technique on a variety of Martian soil analogues will be presented.
Glavin, D. P.↗
Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions
Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase
We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle
Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback ($SW_{FB}$) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs participating in the sixth assessment report exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical $SW_{FB}$’s that are more positive than those simulated in the previous generation of GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$ can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass (LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. In this work, the response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$— inconsistent with extreme ECS.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗