A cautionary note on decadal sea level pressure predictions from GCMs
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Stefan Liess↗
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Considering the radiative effects of snow on tropical Pacific Ocean radiative heating profiles in contemporary GCMs using A‐Train observations
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J.‐L. F. Li↗
Detecting Organic Compounds in Martian Soil Analogues Using Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
One of the primary objectives of the 1976 Viking missions was to determine whether organic compounds, possibly of biological origin, were present in the Martian surface soils. The Viking gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) instruments found no evidence for any organic compounds of Martian origin above a few parts per billion in the upper 10 cm of surface soil [l], suggesting the absence of a widely distributed Martian biota. However, Benner et d. have suggested that significant amounts of non-volatile organic compounds, possibly including oxidation products of bioorganic molecules (e.g. carboxylic acids) would not have been detected by the Viking GCMS [2]. Moreover, other key organic compounds important to biology, such as amino acids and nucleobases, would also likely have been missed by the Viking GCMS as these compounds require chemical derivatization to be stable in a GC column [3]. Recent pyrolysis experiments with a Mars soil analogue that had been innoculated with Escherichia coli bacteria have shown that amino acid decomposition products (amines) and nucleobases are among the most abundant products generated after pyrolysis of the bacterial cells [4,5]. At the part per billion level (Viking GCMS detection limit), these pyrolysis products generated from several million bacterial cells per gram of Martian soil would not have been detected by the Viking GCMS instruments [4]. Analytical protocols are under development for upcoming in situ lander opportunities to target several important biological compounds including amino acids and nucleobases. For example, extraction and chemical derivatization techniques [3] are being adapted for space flight use to transform reactive or fragile molecules that would not have been detected by the Viking GCMS instruments, into species that are sufficiently volatile to be detected by GCMS. Recent experiments carried out at NASA Goddard have shown that using this derivatization technique all of the targeted compounds mentioned above can be separated on a GC column and detected by MS at sub-picomole (< 10(exp -l2 mole) levels. With these methods, the detection limit for amino acids, carboxylic acids and nucleobases is several orders of magnitude more sensitive than the Viking GCMS instruments for these compounds. Preliminary results using this analytical technique on a variety of Martian soil analogues will be presented.
Glavin, D. P.↗
A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations
The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.
Charlton, Andrew J.↗
Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle
Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SW FB ) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report (AR5) ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical SW FB ’s that are more positive than those simulated in previous generation CMIP5 GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean SW FB can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. The response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean SW FB — inconsistent with extreme ECS.
extratropical cloud response↗
Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment
We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.
Climate Change; GCMs; Climate Model Subset; Repres↗
On the limitations of General Circulation Climate Models
General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large-scale processes from first principles. However, it is pointed out that the meridional transports of heat simulated GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. It is also demonstrated that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads to the question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change.
Stone, Peter H.↗
The Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer for the Huygens Probe
Titan is unique in the solar system, the only moon that has a dense atmosphere. The major constituents of the atmosphere, nitrogen and methane, are continuously broken apart by a combination of solar UV, impinging electrons from Saturn s magnetosphere, and a steady flux of cosmic rays. The resulting molecular fragments recombine and form a variety of new species, many of which were detected for the first time by Voyager1 . The ubiquitous, surface- hiding aerosol blanket manifests the existence of still more complex compounds. In addition to hydrocarbons and nitriles, the atmosphere is known to contain CO, CO2 and externally delivered H2O. The Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) on the Huygens Probe will measure the chemical composition of the atmosphere of Titan from 170 Km altitude (approximately 1hPa) to the surface (approximately 1500hPa) and determine the isotope ratios of the major constituents. The GCMS will also analyze gas samples from the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyser (ACP) and may be able to obtain compositional information of several surface materials. The GCMS consists of a quadrupole mass spectrometer (QP) with a secondary electron multiplier ion detector, a three-column gas chromatograph (GC) and an elaborate gas sampling system. The gas sampling system will provide atmospheric samples to the QP for nearly continuous analysis during the Probe descent and batch samples at several altitudes for GC analysis. It also contains a chemical scrubber for noble gas analysis and an enrichment cell for trace constituent enhancement. In addition to the sampling of the atmosphere periodic gas samples, derived from the pyrolysis of aerosols, will be transferred from the ACP to the GCMS for direct QP and full GCMS analysis. The QP can analyze molecular masses from 2 to 141Dalton. The nominal detection threshold is at a mixing ratio of 10E-8. Data rate is 885 bits/sec. The mass of the instrument is 17.3 kg and the energy required for operation during the descent is 110 Watt-hours.
Niemann, H. B.↗
The Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer for the Huygens Probe
Titan is unique in the solar system, the only moon that has a dense atmosphere. The major constituents of the atmosphere, nitrogen and methane, are continuously broken apart by a combination of solar UV, impinging electrons from Saturn's magnetosphere, and a steady flow of cosmic rays. The resulting molecular fragments recombine and form a variety of new species, many of which were detected for the first time by Voyager 1. The ubiquitous, surface-hiding aerosol blanket manifests the existence of still more complex compounds. In addition to hydrocarbons and nitriles, the atmosphere is known to contain CO, CO2 and externally delivered H2O. The Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) on the Huygens Probe will measure the chemical composition of the atmosphere of Titan from 170 km altitude (approximately lhPa) to the surface (approximately 1500hPa) and determine the isotope ratios of the major constituents. The GCMS will also analyze gas samples from the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyser (ACP) and may be able to obtain compositional information of several surface materials. The GCMS consists of a quadrupole mass spectrometer (QP) with a secondary electron multiplier ion detector, a three-column gas chromatograph (GC) and an elaborate gas sampling system. The gas sampling system will provide atmospheric samples to the QP for nearly continuous analysis during the Probe descent and batch samples at several altitudes for GC analysis. It also contains a chemical scrubber for noble gas analysis and an enrichment cell for trace constituent enhancement. In addition to the sampling of the atmosphere periodic gas samples, derived from the pyrolysis of aerosols, will be transferred from the ACP to the GCMS for direct QP and full GCMS analysis. The QP can analyze molecular masses from 2 to 14lDalton. The nominal detection threshold is at a mixing ratio of 10E-8. Data rate is 885 bits/sec. The mass of the instrument is 17.3 kg and the energy required for operation during the descent is 110 Watt-hours.
Niemann, H. B.↗
In situ Analysis of Organic Compounds on Mars using Chemical Derivatization and Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
One of the core science objectives of NASA's 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission is to determine the past or present habitability of Mars. The search for key organic compounds relevant to terrestrial life will be an important part of that assessment. We have developed a protocol for the analysis of amino acids and carboxylic acids in Mars analogue materials using gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS). As shown, a variety of carboxylic acids were readily identified in soil collected from the Atacama Desert in Chile at part-per-billion levels by GCMS after extraction and chemical derivatization using the reagent N,N-tert.-butyl (dimethylsilyl) trifluoroacetamide (MTBSTFA). Several derivatized amino acids including glycine and alanine were also detected by GCMS in the Atacama soil at lower concentrations (chromatogram not shown). Lacking derivatization capability, the Viking pyrolysis GCMS instruments could not have detected amino acids and carboxylic acids, since these non-volatile compounds require chemical transformation into volatile species that are stable in a GC column. We are currently optimizing the chemical extraction and derivatization technique for in situ GCMS analysis on Mars. Laboratory results of analyses of Atacama Desert samples and other Mars analogue materials using this protocol will be presented.
Glavin, D. P.↗
Huygens Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer Results from Titan
The Huygens Probe executed a successful entry, descent and impact on the Saturnian moon of Titan on January 14, 2005. Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) instrument conducted isotopic and compositional measurements throughout the two and one half hour descent from 146 km altitude, and on the surface for 69 minutes until loss of signal from the orbiting Cassini spacecraft. The GCMS incorporated a quadrupole mass filter with a secondary electron multiplier detection system. The gas sampling system provided continuous direct atmospheric composition measurements and batch sampling through three gas chromatographic (GC) columns, a chemical scrubber and a hydrocarbon enrichment cell. The GCMS gas inlet was heated to prevent condensation, and to evaporate volatiles from the surface after impact. Data products from the GCMS included altitude profiles of the major atmospheric constituents dinitrogen (N2) and methane (CH4), isotope ratios of N-14/N-15, C-12/C-13, and D/H, mole fractions of radiogenic argon (Ar-40)and primordial argon Ar-36), and upper limits on the mole fractions of neon, krypton and xenon, which were found to be below the detection limit of the instrument or absent. Surface measurements confirmed the presence of ethane (C2H6) and cyanogen (C2N2). Later data products include the instrument response to surface outgassing of C2N2, C2H6, acetylene (C2H2),and carbon dioxide (CO2). More recent results include the detection of benzene (C6H6) and height profiles of molecular hydrogen (H2). Numerous other trace species evaporating from the surface were also identified using the GCMS data.
Niemann, Hasso↗
The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part II: Moist Cases - The Two Waterworlds
To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most comprehensive tools available for this task and will be used to interpret observations of temperate rocky exoplanets. Due to parameterization choices made in GCMs, they can produce different results, even for the same planet. Employing four widely-used exoplanetary GCMs - ExoCAM, LMD-G, ROCKE-3D and the UM - we continue the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison by modeling aquaplanet climates of TRAPPIST-le with a moist atmosphere dominated by either nitrogen or carbon dioxide. Although the GCMs disagree on the details of the simulated regimes, they all predict a temperate climate with neither of the two cases pushed out of the habitable state. Nevertheless, the inter-model spread in the global mean surface temperature is non-negligible: 14 K and 24 K in the nitrogen and carbon dioxide dominated case, respectively. We find substantial inter-model differences in moist variables, with the smallest amount of clouds in LMDGeneric and the largest in ROCKE-3D. ExoCAM predicts the warmest climate for both cases and thus has the highest water vapor content and the largest amount and variability of cloud condensate. The UM tends to produce colder conditions, especially in the nitrogen-dominated case due to a strong negative cloud radiative effect on the day side of TRAPPIST-le. Our study highlights various biases of GCMs and emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on one model to understand exoplanet climates.
TRAPPIST↗
General Circulation Models Simulate Negative Liquid Water Path–Droplet Number Correlations, but Anthropogenic Aerosols Still Increase Simulated Liquid Water Path
General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.
General circulation models↗
Climatological Structures of the GRIPS Models: Mean States and Forcing
The GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS) is assessing and monitoring the performance of state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). A wide variety of tasks have been initiated. These are designed to: (1) assess the ability of the GCMs to represent the current climatological structure of the troposphere and middle atmosphere,(2) to compare their response to imposed forcing anomalies, and (3) to estimate the certainty with which future climate perturbations can be predicted. This paper is concerned with assessments of the climatological states in the GCM simulations. Comparing the simulations with observational datasets reveals considerable discrepancies in the modelled fields. While it might be anticipated that certain types of biases in the model simulations might be related to the formulation of different aspects of the numerical package (dynamical schemes, cloud schemes, radiation transfer, inclusion of gravity wave drag), there is no clear relationship between these features. This paper attempts to draw a more comprehensive picture of the GCMs'performance than has previously been shown, by comparing the dominant forcing mechanisms in the models with observational estimates, and relating model deficiencies to the differences in the physical mechanisms in the GCMS.
Pawson, Steven↗
Overlap Properties of Clouds Generated by a Cloud Resolving Model
In order for General Circulation Models (GCMs), one of our most important tools to predict future climate, to correctly describe the propagation of solar and thermal radiation through the cloudy atmosphere a realistic description of the vertical distribution of cloud amount is needed. Actually, one needs not only the cloud amounts at different levels of the atmosphere, but also how these cloud amounts are related, in other words, how they overlap. Currently GCMs make some idealized assumptions about cloud overlap, for example that contiguous cloud layers overlap maximally and non-contiguous cloud layers overlap in a random fashion. Since there are difficulties in obtaining the vertical profile of cloud amount from observations, the realism of the overlap assumptions made in GCMs has not been yet rigorously investigated. Recently however, cloud observations from a relatively new type of ground radar have been used to examine the vertical distribution of cloudiness. These observations suggest that the GCM overlap assumptions are dubious. Our study uses cloud fields from sophisticated models dedicated to simulate cloud formation, maintenance, and dissipation called Cloud Resolving Models . These models are generally considered capable of producing realistic three-dimensional representation of cloudiness. Using numerous cloud fields produced by such a CRM we show that the degree of overlap between cloud layers is a function of their separation distance, and is in general described by a combination of the maximum and random overlap assumption, with random overlap dominating as separation distances increase. We show that it is possible to parameterize this behavior in a way that can eventually be incorporated in GCMs. Our results seem to have a significant resemblance to the results from the radar observations despite the completely different nature of the datasets. This consistency is encouraging and will promote development of new radiative transfer codes that will estimate the radiation effects of multi-layer cloud fields more accurately.
Oreopoulos, L.↗
Detecting Pyrolysis Products from Bacteria in a Mars Soil Analogue
One of the primary objectives of the 1976 Viking missions was to determine whether organic compounds, possibly of biological origin, were present in the Martian surface soils. The Viking gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) instruments found no evidence for any organic compounds of Martian origin above a few parts per billion in the upper 10 cm of surface soil, suggesting the absence of a widely distributed Martian biota. However, it is now known that key organic compounds important to biology, such as amino acids, carboxylic acids and nucleobases, would likely have been missed by the Viking GCMS instruments. In this study, a Mars soil analogue that was inoculated with approx. 10 billion Escherichia coli cells was heated at 500 C under Martian ambient pressure to release volatile organic compounds from the sample. The pyrolysis products were then analyzed for amino acids and nucleobases using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and GCMS. Our experimental results indicate that at the part per billion level, the degradation products generated from several million bacterial cells per gram of Martian soil would not have been detected by the Viking GCMS instruments. Upcoming strategies for Mars exploration will require in-situ analyses by instruments that can assess whether any organic compounds, especially those that might be associated with life, are present in Martian surface samples.
Glavin, D. P.↗
The Continual Intercomparison of Radiation Codes (CIRC) Assessing Anew the Quality of GCM Radiation Algorithms
The simulation of changes in the Earth's climate due to solar and thermal radiative processes with global climate models (GCMs) is highly complex, depending on the parameterization of a multitude of nonlinearly coupled physical processes. In contrast, the germ of global climate change, the radiative forcing from enhanced abundances of greenhouse gases, is relatively well understood. The impressive agreement between detailed radiation calculations and highly resolved spectral radiation measurements in the thermal infrared under cloudless conditions (see, for example, Fig. 1) instills confidence in our knowledge of the sources of gaseous absorption. That the agreement spans a broad range of temperature and humidity regimes using instruments mounted on surface, aircraft, and satellite platforms not only attests to our capability to accurately calculate radiative fluxes under present conditions, but also provides confidence in the spectroscopic basis for computation of fluxes under conditions that might characterize future global climate (e.g., radiative forcing). Alas, the computational costs of highly resolved spectral radiation calculations cannot be afforded presently in GCMs. Such calculations have instead been used as the foundation for approximations implemented in fast but generally less accurate algorithms performing the needed radiative transfer (RT) calculations in GCMs. Credible climate simulations by GCMs cannot be ensured without accurate solar and thermal radiative flux calculations under all types of sky conditions: pristine cloudless, aerosol-laden, and cloudy. The need for accuracy in RT calculations is not only important for greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, but is also profoundly needed for the robust simulation of many other atmospheric phenomena, such as convective processes.
Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗
Developmental Hardware Testing Results and Forward Plans for the Spacecraft Water Impurity Monitor (SWIM) Organic Water Module (OWM)
We present testing results for developmental hardware of the Spacecraft Water Impurity Monitor (SWIM) Organic Water Module (OWM). SWIM-OWM will monitor spacecraft potable water and system water for trace organic contaminants. The system will detect and identify the specific organic chemical that makes up a given total organic carbon reading. We have built a first development unit (1DU) for SWIM-OWM, which directly injects aqueous water samples and detects chemicals with both a thermal conductivity detector and mass spectrometer sensor. The gas chromatography mass spectrometer (GCMS) system that comprises SWIM-OWM draws on the success of ISS-proven mass spectrometer hardware, and the demonstration of GCMS detection of trace organic contaminants in ISS cabin air. SWIM-OWM benefits from the excellent sensitivity and specificity afforded by GCMS. We have demonstrated detection of a set of chemicals relevant to both crew health and performance as well as system monitoring; these target chemicals range from light, volatile organics such as acetone and ethanol, to heavier, very non-volatile compounds such as dimethyl sulfone and o-phthalaldehyde. Direct aqueous injection was chosen for the general applicability of the technique to clean water sampling and to preclude sample pre-processing, which facilitates an on-line implementation of the SWIM-OWM when deployed in a spacecraft or habitation module. A specific advantage of direct aqueous injection when coupled with appropriate methods is that both the light, volatile organics and heavier non-volatiles can be detected from a single injection, in a single chromatogram. Results from 1DU testing will be discussed, and forward plans will be outlined for continued maturation of SWIM-OWM with the goal of implementing a technology demonstration for the purposes of maturing the engineering design and operations in an environment relevant to NASA’s future goals of exploring and setting up habitation on the Moon and Mars.
Water Monitoring↗