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At least 55 records · Page 3

On the statistics of El Nino occurrences and the relationship of El Nino to volcanic and solar/geomagnetic activity

El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

The Earth's Middle Atmosphere: COSPAR Plenary Meeting, 29th, Washington, DC, 28 Aug.-5 Sep., 1992

The conference presented the results from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) in the areas of wind, temperature, composition, and energy input into the upper atmosphere. Also presented is the current status of validation of the UARS temperature and wind instruments measuring at and above the menopause. The two UARS instruments involved were the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) and the WIND Imaging Interferometer (WINDII). Papers are presented covering almost all aspects of middle atmospheric science, including dynamics, layering in the middle atmosphere, atmospheric composition, solar and geomagnetic effects, electrodynamics, and the ionosphere.

Grosse, W. L.↗

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

Schatten, Kenneth↗

The Formation of CIRs at Stream-Stream Interfaces and Resultant Geomagnetic Activity

Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are regions of compressed plasma formed at the leading edges of corotating high-speed solar wind streams originating in coronal holes as they interact with the preceding slow solar wind. Although particularly prominent features of the solar wind during the declining and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, they may also be present at times of higher solar activity. We describe how CIRs are formed, and their geomagnetic effects, which principally result from brief southward interplanetary magnetic field excursions associated with Alfven waves. Seasonal and long-term variations in these effects are briefly discussed.

Richardson, I. G.↗

CAWSES November 7-8, 2004, Superstorm: Complex Solar and Interplanetary Features in the Post-Solar Maximum Phase

The complex interplanetary structures during 7 to 8 Nov 2004 are analyzed to identify their properties as well as resultant geomagnetic effects and the solar origins. Three fast forward shocks, three directional discontinuities and two reverse waves were detected and analyzed in detail. The three fast forward shocks 'pump' up the interplanetary magnetic field from a value of approx.4 nT to ~44 nT. However, the fields after the shocks were northward, and magnetic storms did not result. The three ram pressure increases were associated with major sudden impulses (SI + s) at Earth. A magnetic cloud followed the third forward shock and the southward Bz associated with the latter was responsible for the superstorm. Two reverse waves were detected, one at the edge and one near the center of the magnetic cloud (MC). It is suspected that these 'waves' were once reverse shocks which were becoming evanescent when they propagated into the low plasma beta MC. The second reverse wave caused a decrease in the southward component of the IMF and initiated the storm recovery phase. It is determined that flares located at large longitudinal distances from the subsolar point were the most likely causes of the first two shocks without associated magnetic clouds. It is thus unlikely that the shocks were 'blast waves' or that magnetic reconnection eroded away the two associated MCs. This interplanetary/solar event is an example of the extremely complex magnetic storms which can occur in the post-solar maximum phase.

solar flares↗

Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 - 2009): Catalog and Summary of Properties

In a previous study (Cane and Richardson, J. Geophys. Res. l08(A4), SSH6-1, we investigated the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996 - 2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23, and provided a "comprehensive" catalog of these events. In this paper, we present a revised and updated catalog of the approx. =300 near-Earth ICMEs in 1996-2009, encompassing the complete cycle 23, and summarize their basic properties and geomagnetic effects. In particular, solar wind .. composition and charge state observations are now considered when identifying the ICMEs. In general, these additional data confirm the earlier identifications based predominantly on other solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters. However, the boundaries of ICME-like plasma based on charge state/composition data may deviate significantly from those based on conventional plasma/magnetic field parameters. Furthermore, the much studied "magnetic clouds", with flux-rope-like magnetic field configurations, may form just a substructure of the total ICME interval.

Richardson, I. G.↗

Forbush decreases geomagnetic and atmospheric effects cosmogenic nuclides

An overview and synthesis is given of recent developments that have occurred in the areas of Forbush decreases, geomagnetic and atmospheric effects, and cosmogenic nuclides. Experimental evidence has been found for substantial differences in the effects of the various types of interplanetary perturbations on cosmic rays, and for a dependence of these effects on the three-dimensional configuration of the interplanetary medium. In order to fully understand and to be able to simulate the solar cosmic ray particle access to the polar regions of the earth we need accurate models of the magnetospheric magnetic field. These models must include all major magnetospheric current systems (in particular the field aligned currents), and they should represent magnetically quiet time periods as well as different levels of geomagnetic activity. In the evolution of magnetospheric magnetic field models, cosmic ray and magnetospheric physicists should work closely together since cosmic ray measurements are a powerful additional tool in the study of the perturbed magnetosphere. In the field of cosmogenic nuclides, finally, exciting new results and developments follow in rapid succession. Thanks to new techniques and new isotopes the analysis of cosmic ray history has entered into a new dimension.

Flueckiger, E. O.↗

Correlative studies of the solar wind. The interplanetary magnetic field, and their effects on the geomagnetic cavity using Explorer 33 and 35 data

The work completed in the study of the effects of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field on the bow shock and geomagnetic cavity is reported along with work underway but not yet completed. The correlative data from Explorer 33 and 35, and the computer programs for processing the data are described. The research discussed includes: polar cusps, substorms, geomagnetic activity, and North-South component of the interplanetary magnetic field. Lists of publications, and papers presented at meetings are included.

Coleman, P. J., Jr.↗

Effect of the geomagnetic field on the diffusion of meteor trains

A solution to the problem of the diffusion of a meteor train in the geomagnetic field from an initial line density may be written in closed form in terms of effective diffusion coefficients depending on direction, enabling detailed calculations across the entire range of angle of train to field and relevant heights. While the effective diffusion coefficient in the plane of train and field then remains close to the zero field ambipolar value right up to 90 deg, the effective coefficient in the direction of the normal to plane of train and field drops steadily to its theta = 0 value at theta = 90 deg. At 95 km this corresponds to a change of almost 5 km, in 'diffusion height', that is, the height of an underdense meteor calculated on the basis of the exponential decay of its radar echo. We have estimated the consequent changes in the expected distribution of diffusion heights for various orientations of radar antenna and find the dependence on azimuth is very marked. The effect of the field is relatively minor for a south pointing beam but very strong if the beam is pointing north.

Jones, William↗

Literature Review of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) and Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD) Effects on Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems

This document summarizes the findings of a review of published literature regarding the potential impacts of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) phenomena on oil and gas pipeline systems. The impacts of telluric currents on pipelines and their associated cathodic protection systems has been well studied. The existing literature describes implications for corrosion protection system design and monitoring to mitigate these impacts. Effects of an EMP on pipelines is not a thoroughly explored subject. Most directly related articles only present theoretical models and approaches rather than specific analyses and in-field testing. Literature on SCADA components and EMP is similarly sparse and the existing articles show a variety of impacts to control system components that range from upset and damage to no effect. The limited research and the range of observed impacts for the research that has been published suggests the need for additional work on GMD and EMP and natural gas SCADA components.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Simultaneous L-band and VHF ionospheric fading effects at the geomagnetic equator

Simultaneous observations of ionspheric fading of 1550 MHz and 136 MHz radio waves from the ATS-5 spacecraft were recorded on the geomagnetic equator at Ancon, Peru. The observations were made during a period around the 1971 spring equinox; they show fades as great as 27 db at 136 MHz, and 6 db at 1550 MHz. The general characteristics of the scintillation signatures at the two frequencies are discussed with emphasis on comparison of the two frequencies with respect to rates and depths of fades. Typical statistical distributions of signal levels are also presented from which time availabilities of the signals relative to the median levels can be derived.

Sessions, W. B.↗

Effects on the geomagnetic tail at 60 earth radii of the geomagnetic storm of April 9, 1971.

A geomagnetic storm beginning with an sc occurred on Apr. 9, 1971. During the storm the charged particle lunar environment experiment at the Apollo 14 site, the solar wind spectrometer experiment at the Apollo 12 site, and the Ames magnetometers on Explorer 35 took data in the magnetosheath, at the magnetopause, in the plasma sheet, and in the high-latitude geomagnetic tail. The MIT Faraday cup and Ames magnetometers on board Explorer 33 monitored the solar wind. The data show that the storm was caused by a corotating tangential discontinuity in the solar wind, the magnetopause position is strongly dependent on the attack angle of the solar wind, and the tail field strength was indirectly measured to increase from 10 to 14 gamma after the sc. During the main phase the field strength in the tail was observed to increase to between 28 and 34 gamma. This increase is consistent with a thermal and magnetic compression of the tail radius from about 26 to about 16 earth radii.

Burke, W. J.↗