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40 records · Page 3

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Comparison of Multivariate Time Series Prediction Techniques for Emulating Noah-LSM Soil Moisture Outputs

Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.

Mitchell Dodson↗

DOE OSTI2024

Third-integer Resonant Extraction Regulation System for Mu2e

A third-integer resonant slow extraction system is being developed for Fermilab's Delivery Ring to deliver protons to the upcoming Mu2e experiment. The timescale of the extraction (or spill) duration is 43 milliseconds, which is extremely short and unprecedented. Additionally, the experiment's strict and challenging requirements on the quality of the spill at this time scale has led to the development of a new Spill Regulation System (SRS) design. The SRS primarily consists of three components - slow regulation, fast regulation, and harmonic content suppressor. Contributions to the first two components of the SRS, i.e., Slow Regulation and Fast Regulation subsystems, will be presented in which new adaptive learning algorithm schemes for the slow regulation of the spill -- validated using particle tracking simulations -- shall be described. In addition to these novel methods for the enhancement of the spill regulation system, results of employing Machine Learning in enhancing the performance of the resonant extraction are also presented. At the forefront of applying ML techniques to solve non-linear accelerator control problems, this work includes optimizing the PID gains as well as the replacement of the traditional PID controller using Recurrent Neural Networks and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) ML models to achieve efficiencies greater than a PID controller. Cutting-edge on-going Reinforcement Learning efforts, including an actor-critic family of learning algorithms, to regulate the spill rate will be reviewed, as well as present analytical calculations pertaining the transit time of particles in a third-integer resonant extraction. Detailed numerical investigations and validations of such calculations, the model of which could be exported and reliably used in future analytical modeling of any resonant extraction, are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultra-low latency recurrent neural network inference on FPGAs for physics applications with hls4ml

Abstract Recurrent neural networks have been shown to be effective architectures for many tasks in high energy physics, and thus have been widely adopted. Their use in low-latency environments has, however, been limited as a result of the difficulties of implementing recurrent architectures on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). In this paper we present an implementation of two types of recurrent neural network layers—long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit—within the hls4ml framework. We demonstrate that our implementation is capable of producing effective designs for both small and large models, and can be customized to meet specific design requirements for inference latencies and FPGA resources. We show the performance and synthesized designs for multiple neural networks, many of which are trained specifically for jet identification tasks at the CERN Large Hadron Collider.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Black-Box Modeling of Power Conversion System Dynamics

Inverter-based resources are key components in modern power systems, but accurately modeling their complex behavior can be challenging. Standard, generic converter models often oversimplify inverter dynamics, leading to significant errors in predicting performance. In this work, we compare several data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for inverter modeling, performing experiments on power conversion systems, systematically varying input conditions, and recording the resulting voltages and currents. The ML models were then trained on this measured data to capture the inverter's dynamic response and to predict the inverter's output current. A performance comparison between the four ML models under study is conducted, laying the foundation for future work on hardware implementation for real-time inference.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗