Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Generalization error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Extending quantum probabilistic error cancellation by noise scaling

Here, we propose a general framework for quantum error mitigation that combines and generalizes two techniques: probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) and zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE). Similar to PEC, the proposed method represents ideal operations as linear combinations of noisy operations that are implementable on hardware. However, instead of assuming a fixed level of hardware noise, we extend the set of implementable operations by noise scaling. By construction, this method encompasses both PEC and ZNE as particular cases and allows us to investigate a larger set of hybrid techniques. For example, gate extrapolation can be used to implement PEC without requiring knowledge of the device’s noise model, e.g., avoiding gate-set tomography. Alternatively, probabilistic error reduction can be used to estimate expectation values at intermediate virtual noise strengths (below the hardware level), leading to partially mitigated results at a lower sampling cost. Moreover, multiple results obtained with different noise-reduction factors can be further postprocessed with ZNE to better approximate the zero-noise limit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

All-sky aerosol direct radiative effects at the ARM SGP site

All-sky aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) was estimated for the first time at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site using multi-year ground-based observations. The NASA Langley Fu-Liou radiation model was employed. Observed inputs for the radiation model include aerosol and cloud vertical extinction profile from Raman lidar; spectral aerosol optical depth, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor from Aerosol Robotic Network; cloud water content profiles from radars; temperature and water vapor profiles from radiosondes; and surface shortwave spectral albedo from radiometers. A cloudy-sky radiative closure experiment was performed. The relative mean differences between modeled and observed surface downwelling shortwave total fluxes were 6% (7%) for transparent (opaque) cloudy-skies. The estimated annual mean all-sky aerosol DRE is -2.13±0.54W m -2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and -5.95±0.87 W m -2 at the surface, compared to -3.00±0.58 W m -2 AND -6.85±1.00 W m -2 , respectively, under clear-sky conditions. The seasonal cycle of all-sky aerosol DRE is similar to that of the clear-sky, except with secondary influences of the clouds: The cloud radiative effect is strongest (most negative) in the spring, which reduces the all-sky aerosol DRE. The relative uncertainties in all-sky aerosol DRE due to measurement errors are generally comparable to those in clear-sky conditions except for the aerosol single-scattering albedo. Finally, the TOA all-sky aerosol DRE relative uncertainty due to aerosol single-scattering albedo uncertainty is larger than that in clear-sky, leading to a larger total relative uncertainty. The measurement errors in cloud properties have small effects on the all-sky aerosol DRE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of error, chimera, bias, and GC content on the accuracy of amplicon sequencing

ABSTRACT Targeted amplicon sequencing is widely used in microbial ecology studies. However, sequencing artifacts and amplification biases are of great concern. To identify sources of these artifacts, a systematic analysis was performed using mock communities comprised of 16S rRNA genes from 33 bacterial strains. Our results indicated that while sequencing errors were generally isolated to low-abundance operational taxonomic units, chimeric sequences were a major source of artifacts. Singleton and doubleton sequences were primarily chimeras. Formation of chimeric sequences was significantly correlated with the GC content of the targeted sequences. Low-GC-content mock community members exhibited lower rates of chimeric sequence formation. GC content also had a large impact on sequence recovery. The quantitative capacity was notably limited, with substantial recovery variations and weak correlation between anticipated and observed strain abundances. The mock community strains with higher GC content had higher recovery rates than strains with lower GC content. Amplification bias was also observed due to the differences in primer affinity. A two-step PCR strategy reduced the number of chimeric sequences by half. In addition, comparative analyses based on the mock communities showed that several widely used sequence processing pipelines/methods, including DADA2, Deblur, UCLUST, UNOISE, and UPARSE, had different advantages and disadvantages in artifact removal and rare species detection. These results are important for improving sequencing quality and reliability and developing new algorithms to process targeted amplicon sequences. IMPORTANCE Amplicon sequencing of targeted genes is the predominant approach to estimate the membership and structure of microbial communities. However, accurate reconstruction of community composition is difficult due to sequencing errors, and other methodological biases and effective approaches to overcome these challenges are essential. Using a mock community of 33 phylogenetically diverse strains, this study evaluated the effect of GC content on sequencing results and tested different approaches to improve overall sequencing accuracy while characterizing the pros and cons of popular amplicon sequence data processing approaches. The sequencing results from this study can serve as a benchmarking data set for future algorithmic improvements. Furthermore, the new insights on sequencing error, chimera formation, and GC bias from this study will help enhance the quality of amplicon sequencing studies and support the development of new data analysis approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A high order Cartesian grid, finite volume method for elliptic interface problems

We present a higher-order finite volume method for solving elliptic PDEs with jump conditions on interfaces embedded in a 2D Cartesian grid. Second, fourth, and sixth order accuracy is demonstrated on a variety of tests including problems with high-contrast and spatially varying coefficients, large discontinuities in the source term, and complex interface geometries. We include a generalized truncation error analysis based on cell-centered Taylor series expansions, which then define stencils in terms of local discrete solution data and geometric information. In the process, we develop a simple method based on Green's theorem for computing exact geometric moments directly from an implicit function definition of the embedded interface. This approach produces stencils with a simple bilinear representation, where spatially-varying coefficients and jump conditions can be easily included and finite volume conservation can be enforced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning Applied to Zeolite Synthesis: The Missing Link for Realizing High-Throughput Discovery

Zeolites are microporous crystalline materials with well-defined cavities and pores, which can be prepared under different pore topologies and chemical compositions. Their preparation is typically defined by multiple interconnected variables (e.g., reagent sources, molar ratios, aging treatments, reaction time and temperature, among others), but unfortunately their distinctive influence, particularly on the nucleation and crystallization processes, is still far from being understood. Thus, the discovery and/or optimization of specific zeolites is closely related to the exploration of the parametric space through trial-and-error methods, generally by studying the influence of each parameter individually. In the past decade, machine learning (ML) methods have rapidly evolved to address complex problems involving highly nonlinear or massively combinatorial processes that conventional approaches cannot solve. Considering the vast and interconnected multiparametric space in zeolite synthesis, coupled with our poor understanding of the mechanisms involved in their nucleation and crystallization, the use of ML is especially timely for improving zeolite synthesis. Indeed, the complex space of zeolite synthesis requires drawing inferences from incomplete and imperfect information, for which ML methods are very well-suited to replace the intuition-based approaches traditionally used to guide experimentation. In this Account, we contend that both existing and new ML approaches can provide the “missing link” needed to complete the traditional zeolite synthesis workflow used in our quest to rationalize zeolite synthesis. Within this context, we have made important efforts on developing ML tools in different critical areas, such as (1) data-mining tools to process the large amount of data generated using high-throughput platforms; (2) novel complex algorithms to predict the formation of energetically stable hypothetical zeolites and guide the synthesis of new zeolite structures; (3) new “ab initio” organic structure directing agent predictions to direct the synthesis of hypothetical or known zeolites; (4) an automated tool for nonsupervised data extraction and classification from published research articles. ML has already revolutionized many areas in materials science by enhancing our ability to map intricate behavior to process variables, especially in the absence of well-understood mechanisms. Undoubtedly, ML is a burgeoning field with many future opportunities for further breakthroughs to advance the design of molecular sieves. For this reason, this Account includes an outlook of future research directions based on current challenges and opportunities. We envision this Account will become a hallmark reference for both well-established and new researchers in the field of zeolite synthesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Self-absorption correction on 2D X-ray fluorescence maps

Abstract X-ray fluorescence mapping (XRF) is a highly efficient and non-invasive technique for quantifying material composition with micro and nanoscale spatial resolutions. Quantitative XRF analysis, however, confronts challenges from the long-lasting problem called self-absorption. Moreover, correcting two-dimensional XRF mapping datasets is particularly difficult because it is an ill-posed inverse problem. Here we report a semi-empirical method that can effectively correct 2D XRF mapping data. The correction error is generally less than 10% from a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy in various configurations. The proposed method was applied to quantify the composition distribution around the grain boundaries in an electrochemically corroded stainless steel sample. Highly localized Cr enrichment was found around the crack sites, which was invisible before the absorption correction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of Overfitting by Machine Learning Methods Using Generalization Equations

The training error of Machine Learning (ML) methods has been extensively used for performance assessment, and its low values have been used as a main justification for complex methods such as estimator fusion and ensembles, and hyper parameter tuning. We present two practical cases where independent tests indicate that the low training error is more of a reflection of over-fitting rather than the generalization ability. We derive a generic form of the generalization equations that separates the training error terms of ML methods from their epistemic terms that correspond to approximation and learnability properties. It provides a framework to separately account for both terms to ensure an overall high generalization performance. For regression estimation tasks, we derive conditions for performance enhancements achieved by hyper parameter tuning, and fusion and ensemble methods over their constituent methods. We present experimental measurements and ML estimates that illustrate the analytical results for the throughput profile estimation of a data transport infrastructure.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment

Abstract The persistent and growing spread in effective climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models necessitates rigorous evaluation of their cloud feedbacks. Here we evaluate several cloud feedback components simulated in 19 climate models against benchmark values determined via an expert synthesis of observational, theoretical, and high‐resolution modeling studies. We find that models with smallest feedback errors relative to these benchmark values generally have moderate total cloud feedbacks (0.4–0.6 W m −2 K −1 ) and ECS (3–4 K). Those with largest errors generally have total cloud feedback and ECS values that are too large or too small. Models tend to achieve large positive total cloud feedbacks by having several cloud feedback components that are systematically biased high rather than by having a single anomalously large component, and vice versa. In general, better simulation of mean‐state cloud properties leads to stronger but not necessarily better cloud feedbacks. The Python code base provided herein could be applied to developmental versions of models to assess cloud feedbacks and cloud errors and place them in the context of other models and of expert judgment in real‐time during model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational general relativistic force-free electrodynamics: I. Multi-coordinate implementation and testing

General relativistic force-free electrodynamics is one possible plasma-limit employed to analyze energetic outflows in which strong magnetic fields are dominant over all inertial phenomena. The amazing images of black hole (BH) shadows from the Galactic Center and the M87 galaxy provide a first direct glimpse into the physics of accretion flows in the most extreme environments of the universe. The efficient extraction of energy in the form of collimated outflows or jets from a rotating BH is directly linked to the topology of the surrounding magnetic field. We aim at providing a tool to numerically model the dynamics of such fields in magnetospheres around compact objects, such as BHs and neutron stars. To do so, we probe their role in the formation of high energy phenomena such as magnetar flares and the highly variable teraelectronvolt emission of some active galactic nuclei. In this work, we present numerical strategies capable of modeling fully dynamical force-free magnetospheres of compact astrophysical objects. Here, we provide implementation details and extensive testing of our implementation of general relativistic force-free electrodynamics in Cartesian and spherical coordinates using the infrastructure of the E INSTEIN T OOLKIT . The employed hyperbolic/parabolic cleaning of numerical errors with full general relativistic compatibility allows for fast advection of numerical errors in dynamical spacetimes. Such fast advection of divergence errors significantly improves the stability of the general relativistic force-free electrodynamics modeling of BH magnetospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in varying stability regimes

Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 constraints on extended cosmological models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model, ΛCDM, and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from the Planck mission. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1. To test the dependence of our results on non-ACT data, we also explore combinations replacing Planck with WMAP and DESI with BOSS, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index dn s /d ln k = 0.0062 ± 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N eff = 2.86 ± 0.13, which combined with astrophysical measurements of primordial helium and deuterium abundances becomes N eff = 2.89 ± 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (∑m ν < 0.089 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N idr < 0.134), or for early-universe variation of fundamental constants, including the fine-structure constant (α EM /α EM,0 = 1.0043 ± 0.0017) and the electron mass (m e /m e,0 = 1.0063 ± 0.0056). Our data are consistent with standard big bang nucleosynthesis (we find Y p = 0.2312 ± 0.0092), the COBE/FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature (we find T CMB = 2.698 ± 0.016 K), a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant (w = -0.986 ± 0.025), and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity (γ = 0.663 ± 0.052). We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline ΛCDM model. In fits to models invoking early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or an arbitrary modified recombination history, we find H 0 = 69.9 +0.8 -1.5 , 69.1 ± 0.5, or 69.6 ± 1.0 km/s/Mpc, respectively; using BOSS instead of DESI BAO data reduces the central values of these constraints by 1–1.5 km/s/Mpc while only slightly increasing the error bars. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored over ΛCDM by our data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Securing against errors in an error correcting code (ECC) implemented in an automotive system

In general, data is susceptible to errors caused by faults in hardware (i.e. permanent faults), such as faults in the functioning of memory and/or communication channels. To detect errors in data caused by hardware faults, the error correcting code (ECC) was introduced, which essentially provides a sort of redundancy to the data that can be used to validate that the data is free from errors caused by hardware faults. In some cases, the ECC can also be used to correct errors in the data caused by hardware faults. However, the ECC itself is also susceptible to errors, including specifically errors caused by faults in the ECC logic. A method, computer readable medium, and system are thus provided for securing against errors in an ECC.

Saxena, Nirmal Raj↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands↗