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At least 55 records · Page 3

A robust framework for frictional fault contact in geological formations using a stabilized augmented Lagrangian approach

Numerical simulations are essential to evaluate the performance and safety of engineered subsurface systems such as geological carbon storage sites, enhanced geothermal fields, and oil and gas reservoirs. A key challenge lies in accurately modeling the frictional contact behavior along fault surfaces. This problem involves inequality constraints that arise from the physics of frictional slip, requiring specialized numerical methods to handle the resulting highly nonlinear and path-dependent behavior. Here, in this work, we address this challenge using an Augmented Lagrangian Method (ALM) implemented via the Uzawa algorithm. The formulation employs mixed finite element spaces, combining low-order piecewise linear displacements within the 3D domain cells with piecewise constant tractions defined on the fault surfaces. Furthermore, to ensure stability and satisfy the inf-sup condition, the discrete displacement space is enriched with face bubble functions on both sides of the contact interfaces. This approach offers several advantages over other stabilization techniques that rely on additional terms, and it integrates naturally in the Uzawa framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) System: Resource Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's hot, humid climate drives a high and persistent demand for cooling, straining an aging and fuel-dependent energy grid while increasing peak electricity loads. Much of this challenge stems from inefficient air-conditioning systems operating in buildings without passive cooling design, making cooling both costly and vulnerable to disruption - especially during hurricanes. To address these issues, researchers evaluated a new alternative called Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC), which uses inland wells connected to naturally cold, deep seawater. By avoiding long offshore pipelines and energy-intensive refrigeration cycles, GeoSWAC can cut electricity use by 75-90%, reduce environmental impacts, and operate more reliably during power outages. A case study at the University of Puerto Rico's Rio Piedras campus found that GeoSWAC could deliver significantly lower levelized costs of cooling, reduced operational expenses, and improved water conservation compared to the campus's existing chilled-water plant. The system offers key advantages - including access to a constant cold heat sink, low pumping requirements, and enhanced resilience - for coastal regions such as Puerto Rico, the broader Caribbean, and Florida. However, its effectiveness depends heavily on site-specific geological conditions, such as subsurface connectivity and aquifer characteristics, which require detailed investigation. Future research should refine hydrogeological models, conduct performance and economic analyses, and address regulatory and permitting frameworks to support broader adoption of this promising technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Design and simulation of a muon detector to characterize geological overburden

This study presents the design, construction, and simulation of a mobile muon detector tailored for geological overburden characterization. The detector employs plastic scintillator paddles with silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) and a QuarkNet data acquisition system, offering a portable solution suitable for remote field deployment. The simulator’s modular aluminum frame allows for adjustable geometry and directional sensitivity, while its battery system supports over a week of autonomous operation. Preliminary experimental tests confirmed that its muon flux measurements were consistent with theoretical expectations. A comprehensive simulation framework using Geant4 and CORSIKA was developed to model detector response and overburden effects. Analytical and Monte Carlo methods were used to assess quadrant resolution and infer muon directionality. This work lays the foundation for future overburden mapping and supports the development of reconstruction algorithms for geological applications.

72 - PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Coupled geomechanical investigation of depletion-induced fault reactivation

Fault reactivation during subsurface fluid production pose significant challenges to safe and sustainable resource extraction. Here, this study presents a three-dimensional coupled geomechanical framework to investigate the processes driving fault reactivation, capturing the interactions between reservoir dynamics and geomechanical responses. Verification against theoretical estimations based on linear poroelasticity confirms the model's capacity in representing reservoir background stress responses. However, the study reveals that relying solely on background stress states can underestimate or overestimate fault reactivation potential, emphasizing the importance of including localized stress perturbations such as differential compaction and stress redistribution. Applied to a fault (M1) inspired by the geological characteristics of the Groningen field, the model shows slip initiation at 2965 m depth with 16.0 MPa depletion, aligning with field observations where seismicity occurred at approximately 3 km depth after 15.8 MPa depletion. Parametric studies reveal: (1) inelastic reservoir compaction delays fault reactivation and mitigates fault slip by reducing stress concentration, (2) higher intermediate in-situ stress magnitudes decrease the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) increase rate and reduce fault slip, (3) larger fault offsets amplify shear stress near the offset zone, promoting earlier reactivation and longer rupture propagation, and (4) fault permeability significantly influences pressure diffusion, with low-permeability faults leading to sharper stress changes and earlier fault destabilization. These insights highlight the critical role of geological and mechanical parameters in fault reactivation and provide a predictive framework for mitigating induced seismicity risks.

Coupled geomechanical modeling

Phase-field modeling and experiments of dynamic fracture in single crystal quartz

Predicting the onset and characteristics of brittle fracture is important for a wide range of engineering and geological material applications. In this paper, we study important aspects of brittle fracture in α-quartz by phase-field modeling and experiments using a top-down approach. In the modeling framework, the work term in the Griffith energy balance is replaced with internal energy contributions that represent surface energy, thermal energy, and elastic strain energy stored in defects. This allows parametrization of individual energy contributions in terms of internal state variables and keeps track of energy partitioning after the onset of fracture. The path and history dependence of fracture is included in evolution laws for internal state variables, e.g., entropy evolution, while the energy remains a true potential. In the experimental part, dynamic compression experiments coupled with X-ray phase contrast imaging are performed on cube-like samples with a hole. In the top-down analysis, dynamic compression and three point bending experiments from the literature are simulated with the developed phase-field damage model. In conclusion, the fitted model highlights the strain rate, size, and stress state dependence of damage nucleation and evolution in single crystal α-quartz.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Near Repository Unsaturated Alluvium Disposal Modeling with Improved Geological Realism

The Disposal Research and Development (R&D) Program of the US Department of Energy (DOE) office of Nuclear Energy (NE-8) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign is to conduct R&D on disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW). The goal of the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) within this project is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability that supports the integrated modeling of coupled processes controlling disposal system performance of deep geologic repositories, including uncertainty. This report describes a specific activity in the Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) associated with the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package in collaboration with the GDSA Geologic Modeling work package at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and repository system performance models in crystalline, argillite, salt, and unsaturated alluvium potential host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

GDSA Repository Systems Analysis Investigations in FY 2024

The Disposal Research and Development (R&D) Program of the US Department of Energy (DOE) office of Nuclear Energy (NE-8) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign is to conduct R&D on disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW). The goal of the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) within this project is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability that supports the integrated modeling of coupled processes controlling disposal system performance of deep geologic repositories, including uncertainty. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 associated with the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and repository system performance models in crystalline, argillite, salt, and unsaturated alluvium potential host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (2024): User’s Manual

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO 2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust, and actionable insights for evaluating project finances. This is the user's manual for CO2_S_COM. The model may be accessed at this link: FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4) - Submissions - EDX

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 1. Characterizing Thermal–Hydrological–Mechanical Processes

Abstract Bentonite clay is widely used in engineered barrier systems for the permanent disposal of high‐level radioactive waste due to its low permeability, high swelling capacity, and thermal stability. However, the complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes induced by heating from decaying radioactive waste and hydration from surrounding rock can lead to heterogeneous changes that are difficult to measure and predict. This study develops an Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework for monitoring THM processes, progressing from sample‐scale to bench‐scale tests, to inform field‐scale applications. Sample‐scale tests analyzed small bentonite samples under controlled variations in water content, temperature, and porosity to establish fundamental resistivity relationships. Bench‐scale tests involved larger bentonite columns subjected to heating (up to 200°C) and hydration under controlled pressure, simulating repository conditions. ERT measurements, complemented by X‐ray CT imaging, temperature monitoring, and tracing sensors, revealed coupled THM processes, such as hydration‐induced compression, swelling, and thermal gradients, leading to complex resistivity patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of ERT for capturing THM‐induced resistivity changes, though challenges remain in upscaling and quantitative analysis. This study evaluates laboratory test capabilities and proposes future improvements for understanding THM‐induced resistivity responses. A conceptual framework for ERT implementation in field‐scale monitoring is presented, synthesizing findings from both scales and exploring how ERT data can inform long‐term modeling and reduce prediction uncertainties. Overall, this ERT‐based framework offers a robust method for monitoring bentonite buffers, aiding in early issue detection and supporting the safe long‐term disposal of radioactive waste in geological repositories, while highlighting the need for future development. Plain Language Summary Bentonite clay is crucial in engineered barrier systems (EBS) for containing high‐level radioactive waste due to its ability to absorb water, swell, seal and remain stable under high temperatures. When bentonite absorbs water and heats up from radioactive decay, it experiences complex changes in its physical and mechanical properties. Understanding these changes is important for ensuring the long‐term safety and effectiveness of EBS. This study used Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), a non‐invasive method that measures electrical conductivity to monitor these changes during laboratory experiments. The ERT data revealed significant variations in resistivity corresponding to changes in water content, temperature, and density, providing detailed spatial and temporal insights into the behavior of bentonite. These findings enhance our ability to predict the long‐term performance of bentonite barriers, ensuring the safe containment of radioactive waste. By improving our understanding of bentonite's behavior, this research supports the development of more reliable and effective barrier systems for radioactive waste disposal, protecting the environment and public health. Key Points ERT monitoring was employed to capture resistivity changes in bentonite during controlled heating and hydration experiments, providing insights into THM processes ERT data reveal significant resistivity changes correlated with water content, temperature, and mechanical effects, enhancing the understanding of THM dynamics in bentonite This study explores the potential of the framework for application in field‐scale EBS monitoring, emphasizing the need for integrating additional geophysical methods for comprehensive subsurface imaging

Chen, Hang

Probabilistic Mixture Model-Based Spectral Unmixing

Spectral unmixing attempts to decompose a spectral ensemble into the constituent pure spectral signatures (called endmembers) along with the proportion of each endmember. This is essential for techniques like hyperspectral imaging (HSI) used in environment monitoring, geological exploration, etc. Several spectral unmixing approaches have been proposed, many of which are connected to hyperspectral imaging. However, most extant approaches assume highly diverse collections of mixtures and extremely low-loss spectroscopic measurements. Additionally, current non-Bayesian frameworks do not incorporate the uncertainty inherent in unmixing. We propose a probabilistic inference algorithm that explicitly incorporates noise and uncertainty, enabling us to unmix endmembers in collections of mixtures with limited diversity. We use a Bayesian mixture model to jointly extract endmember spectra and mixing parameters while explicitly modeling observation noise and the resulting inference uncertainties. We obtain approximate distributions over endmember coordinates for each set of observed spectra while remaining robust to inference biases from the lack of pure observations and the presence of non-isotropic Gaussian noise. As a direct impact of our methodology, access to reliable uncertainties on the unmixing solutions would enable robust solutions to noise, as well as informed decision-making for HSI applications and other unmixing problems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

QuakeSim 2.0

QuakeSim 2.0 improves understanding of earthquake processes by providing modeling tools and integrating model applications and various heterogeneous data sources within a Web services environment. QuakeSim is a multisource, synergistic, data-intensive environment for modeling the behavior of earthquake faults individually, and as part of complex interacting systems. Remotely sensed geodetic data products may be explored, compared with faults and landscape features, mined by pattern analysis applications, and integrated with models and pattern analysis applications in a rich Web-based and visualization environment. Integration of heterogeneous data products with pattern informatics tools enables efficient development of models. Federated database components and visualization tools allow rapid exploration of large datasets, while pattern informatics enables identification of subtle, but important, features in large data sets. QuakeSim is valuable for earthquake investigations and modeling in its current state, and also serves as a prototype and nucleus for broader systems under development. The framework provides access to physics-based simulation tools that model the earthquake cycle and related crustal deformation. Spaceborne GPS and Inter ferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) data provide information on near-term crustal deformation, while paleoseismic geologic data provide longerterm information on earthquake fault processes. These data sources are integrated into QuakeSim's QuakeTables database system, and are accessible by users or various model applications. UAVSAR repeat pass interferometry data products are added to the QuakeTables database, and are available through a browseable map interface or Representational State Transfer (REST) interfaces. Model applications can retrieve data from Quake Tables, or from third-party GPS velocity data services; alternatively, users can manually input parameters into the models. Pattern analysis of GPS and seismicity data has proved useful for mid-term forecasting of earthquakes, and for detecting subtle changes in crustal deformation. The GPS time series analysis has also proved useful as a data-quality tool, enabling the discovery of station anomalies and data processing and distribution errors. Improved visualization tools enable more efficient data exploration and understanding. Tools provide flexibility to science users for exploring data in new ways through download links, but also facilitate standard, intuitive, and routine uses for science users and end users such as emergency responders.

Donnellan, Andrea

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters

PFLOTRAN modeling data and scripts associated with “Refining the Hydrogeologic Framework of a Large River Corridor Model Using Waterborne Transient Electromagnetics”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Refining the Hydrogeologic Framework of a Large River Corridor Model Using Waterborne Transient Electromagnetics” submitted to Water Resources Research (Terry et al. 2025). The data package contains the groundwater modeling dataset from PFLOTRAN software. It includes the python script for mesh generation, boundary condition setting, PFLOTRAN input deck formation and postprocessing. It couples groundwater flow and species transport for Hanford Reach river corridor and pipelines the model generation and processing. This model can be used to easily generate the model and analysis for Hanford site. It can also be adjusted to other hydrologic area with ease. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package consists of 6 folders: (1) “data” contains all necessary data as input and intermediate data for processing; (2) “mesh” contains all mesh related files to generate mesh in Hanford Reach river corridor; (3) “model_run” contains the generated script for PFLOTRAN modeling; (4) “notebooks” contains all the Python script to generate the model; (5) “output” contains all the output from the computation; (6) “postprocessing” contains the Python script to generate scientific figure for manuscript. All files are .csv (comma-separated values), .h5 (HDF5 format), .in (input files), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .p (Python pickle), .png (images), .PNG (images), .py (Python scripts), .pyc (Python bytecode), .r (R scripts), .sh (shell scripts), .txt (text files), .vtu (3D mesh/visualization format), .xz (compressed archive), or .zip (compressed archive).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Comparing modelling approaches for a generic nuclear waste repository in salt

This paper contains a comparison of five modelling approaches for a simplified nuclear waste repository in a domal salt formation. It is the result of a four-year collaboration between five international teams on Task F of the DECOVALEX-2023 project on performance assessment modelling. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. This work demonstrates how these objectives are accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions, ranging from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation and repository. Despite differences in the modelling strategies, all models indicate that salt compaction and diffusion of radionuclides in brine are key processes in the repository. For the isothermal spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste scenario with multiple early failures considered, all models indicate little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000-year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the conceptual model.

DECOVALEX

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES

NASA’s Advance Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program

NASA’s Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) develops early-stage technologies to enhance scientific understanding. ESTO’s technologies can be reliably and confidently applied to a broad range of science measurements and missions, as well as facilitate practical applications to benefit society at large. As the lead technology office within the Earth Science Division of the NASA Science Mission Directorate, ESTO is focused on the technological challenges inherent to space-based investigations of our planet's dynamic, interrelated systems. Through flexible, science-driven technology strategies and a competitive selection process, ESTO-funded technologies have supported numerous Earth science missions as well as commercial applications. From next generation sensors and instruments to communication and information systems, ESTO technologies enable many NASA missions and data services. The Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program is one focal area of ESTO. AIST innovates information system technologies that enable the development of new observing systems as well as agile science investigations through data analytics and artificial intelligence tools and algorithms. AIST utilizes an end-to-end development approach with the goal of infusing mature technologies into future missions, measurements, and analysis. One thrust of AIST is data exploitation and analysis using an analytic center framework to make observational data and model output more accessible and usable to scientists conducting specific investigations as well as to extract higher-level science content and information from the data. The framework accelerates scientific discovery by harmonizing the data, tools, and computational resources. NASA’s upcoming Surface, Biology and Geology (SBG) mission is one such mission whose data architecture will leverage many of the technologies developed through the AIST program. This talk will highlight current and future program development goals.

Laura Rogers