Initial On-Orbit Cross-Calibration of the Electric Propulsion Electrostatic Analyzer Experiment (ÉPÉÉ)
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electrostatic analyzer, ionosphere, space environm↗
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Solar Energetic Proton Access to the Inner Magnetosphere During the September 7–8, 2017 Event
Here, the access of solar energetic protons into the inner magnetosphere on September 7–8, 2017 is investigated by following reversed proton trajectories to compute the proton cutoff energy using the Dartmouth geomagnetic cutoff code (Kress et al., 2010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009sw000488). The cutoff energies for protons coming from the west and east direction, the minimum and maximum cutoff energy respectively, are calculated every 5 min along the orbit of Van Allen Probes using TS07 and the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) MHD magnetic field model. The result shows that the cutoff energy increases significantly as the radial distance decreases, and that the cutoff energy decreases with the building up of the ring current during magnetic storms. Solar wind dynamic pressure also affects cutoff suppression (Kress et al., 2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018599). The LFM-RCM model shows stronger suppression of cutoff energy than TS07 during strong solar wind driving conditions. The simulation result is compared with proton flux measurements, showing consistent variation of the cutoff location during the September 7–8, 2017 geomagnetic storm.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances
This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.
Shukla, Pratishtha↗
The Impact of Sudden Commencements on Ground Magnetic Field Variability: Immediate and Delayed Consequences
Abstract We examine how Sudden Commencements (SCs) and Storm Sudden Commencements (SSCs) influence the occurrence of high rates of change of the magnetic field ( R ) as a function of geomagnetic latitude. These rapid, high amplitude variations in the ground‐level geomagnetic field pose a significant risk to ground infrastructure, such as power networks, as the drivers of geomagnetically induced currents. We find that rates of change of ∼30 nT min −1 at near‐equatorial stations are up to 700 times more likely in an SC than in any random interval. This factor decreases with geomagnetic latitude such that rates of change around 30 nT min −1 are only up to 10 times more likely by 65°. At equatorial latitudes we find that 25% of all R in excess of 50 nT min −1 occurs during SCs. This percentage also decreases with geomagnetic latitude, reaching ≤1% by 55°. However, the time period from the SC to 3 days afterward accounts for ≥90% of geomagnetic field fluctuations over 50 nT min −1 , up to ∼60° latitude. Above 60°, other phenomena such as isolated substorms account for the majority of large R . Furthermore, the elevated rates of change observed during and after SCs are solely due to those classified as SSCs. These results show that SSCs are the predominant risk events for large R at mid and low latitudes, but that the risk from the SC itself decreases with latitude.
Smith, Andrew W.↗
Revealing the Formation of the <20 MeV Inner Proton Radiation Belt at L ∼ 2 During the 10–11 May 2024 Superstorm
A new proton radiation belt was identified during the geomagnetic superstorm of 10–11 May 2024. To investigate its origin, we use an MHD-test particle simulation to model solar energetic proton (SEP) trapping and the evolution of the initial trapped proton population during the storm. The simulation weights the injected SEP population with interplanetary proton measurements and the initial trapped proton radial profile with energy-resolved Weather System Follow-on-Microwave (WSF-M) proton data, enabling quantitative comparison with observations. Results show that SEP contributions are minimal; the new ∼2–18 MeV belt at L ∼ 2 forms mainly through redistribution and energization of the initial trapped population within hours of the CME shock, driven by subsequent electric field impulses, rather than the initial shock alone. These results provide quantitative evidence based on realistic, plasma-dependent field dynamics and significantly advance understanding of inner radiation belt formation.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
3D Radio Frequency Mapping and Polarization Observations Show Lightning Flashes Were Ignited by Cosmic‐Ray Showers
Previous 2D radio frequency interferometric observations showed that lightning is commonly started with a positive fast discharge (+FD) before a normal negative leader continues from the origin of the +FD to the ensuing lightning flash. However, the inception and development of the +FD cannot be convincingly explained by existing discharge theories. With our new 3D broadband interferometric mapping and polarization system, we observed that the +FD was sometimes followed by an even faster and more extensive negative discharge (−FD) that propagated backward and overshoot the origin by a few hundred meters, as reported by an earlier 2D study. Surprisingly, the signal polarization, which measures the orientation of the discharge current, systematically slanted from the discharge propagation direction and rotated between the two opposite discharges, showing the +FD and −FD were driven by other storm-independent factors in addition to the storm electric field, or otherwise all would align in the same direction. Assuming a cosmic-ray shower (CRS) piercing through the cloud immediately before the +FD/−FD discharge, we found that their path is consistent with a pre-ionized path by the CRS, and the polarizations for the two opposite discharges are consistent with the respective deflected trajectories of high-energy positrons and electrons in the geomagnetic and an electric field. We further analyzed the more commonly observed +FD and showed that it is consistent with the CRS interpretation, suggesting these flashes in thunderstorms were ignited by cosmic-ray showers.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset
Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Association of Mesoscale Auroral Structures and Breakups With Energetic Particle Injections at Geosynchronous Orbit
Geomagnetic substorms are associated with characteristic energetic particle injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit that are often dispersionless in both electrons and ions near the magnetic local time sector of auroral onset locations and are dispersed farther away from this region. Although the precise mechanism responsible for the coherent injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit have been the topic on considerable ongoing debate for decades, recent work on bursty bulk flows (BBFs) in the tail have led to the hypothesis that they may be the result of multiple, overlapping flow bursts penetrating into the inner magnetosphere from more distant downtail reconnection sites. Since auroral streamers are thought to be ionospheric signatures of BBFs in the tail, they can be used as proxies for testing this hypothesis. Using high resolution auroral imagery from the POLAR/VIS instrument combined with multi-spacecraft observations of energetic particle injections at geosynchronous orbit, we examine the association of mesoscale auroral structures with particle injection signatures over many hours during the 9 November 1998 storm. We find that the explosive types of auroral activations, such as pseudo-breakups and substorm onset breakups, are associated with the more intense and well-defined dispersed injection signatures, while intervals of isolated streamer activity appear to be associated with smaller dispersed “injectionlet” signatures. Furthermore, intervals of sustained, intense, and late expansion phase/recovery phase streamer activity appear to be associated with sustained elevated dispersed particle fluxes. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that it is the overlapping effects of sustained, intense multiple flow bursts penetrating toward the Earth that result in classical substorm particle injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit. However, it is also suggested that torches/omega-band tongues are the prime fate of braking isolated flow bursts (streamers) rather than the development of breakups, bulges, and substorm current wedge formation. A statistical analysis is presented showing that 93% of the observed torches evolved from streamers, 93% of streamers arriving in the equatorward regions of the bulge led to torches, 10.5% of such streamers led to breakups (either pseudo-breakups or substorm onsets), and only 3.5% of such streamers led to substorm onsets.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity
The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.
Climate change↗