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At least 55 records · Page 3

GOOML - Real World Applications of Machine Learning in Geothermal Operations

GOOML (Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning) is a machine-learning based framework that enables geothermal power plant operators to explore optimization opportunities for their assets in an efficient and robust digital environment. Backed by real-world data sources, thermodynamic constraints and steamfield intelligence, the GOOML environment provides new tools to explore how to best operate steamfields as well as test new scenarios and configurations prior to implementation in the field. To prove the effectiveness of GOOML, we have undertaken optimization experiments using reinforcement learning (RL) to generate operational suggestions using a balance of mass-take targets, sustainability considerations and net generation. Our experiments use the GOOML construct to explore different field parameters and perform multiple reinforcement learning experiments. Like a comprehensive laboratory workbench, we can change out components of a steamfield to perform testing under a variety of conditions (restrict mass, increase pressure, reroute steam, etc.). This flexibility allows us to explore conditions that would require significant infrastructure changes in a real-world setting at a fraction of the cost and time in a digital environment. The results highlight the benefits of using digital twins and advanced data analytics for the geothermal industry.

forecasting↗

Modeling Subsurface Performance of a Geothermal Reservoir Using Machine Learning

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells—increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells—and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. In this study, we describe a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable such a strategy. Our computational approach allows us, first, to translate sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy, and second, to find optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an “open-source” reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 h, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 s. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

GIS Resource Compilation Map Package - Applications of Machine Learning Techniques to Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis in the Great Basin Region, Nevada

This submission contains an ESRI map package (.mpk) with an embedded geodatabase for GIS resources used or derived in the Nevada Machine Learning project, meant to accompany the final report. The package includes layer descriptions, layer grouping, and symbology. Layer groups include: new/revised datasets (paleo-geothermal features, geochemistry, geophysics, heat flow, slip and dilation, potential structures, geothermal power plants, positive and negative test sites), machine learning model input grids, machine learning models (Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), Principal Component Analysis (PCA/PCAk), Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF/NMFk) - supervised and unsupervised), original NV Play Fairway data and models, and NV cultural/reference data. See layer descriptions for additional metadata. Smaller GIS resource packages (by category) can be found in the related datasets section of this submission. A submission linking the full codebase for generating machine learning output models is available through the "Related Datasets" link on this page, and contains results beyond the top picks present in this compilation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Life Cycle Assessment and Techno-Economic Assessment of Lithium Recovery from Geothermal Brine

Lithium-ion batteries (LIB) play an essential role in the electrification of the transportation sector, and battery demand for lithium compounds will see a significant increase in the coming decades. This has raised concerns on the supply of lithium, and as a result, technologies are being developed to process unconventional lithium sources. One promising technology is to extract lithium from geothermal brine using lithium-aluminum-layered double hydroxide chloride (LDH) sorbent and forward osmosis. A combined life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA) is conducted to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of this technology. It is assumed that the lithium extraction unit is an add-on to a 50 MW geothermal power plant located in California. The analysis is based on lab-scale experimental data and stoichiometry while considering the economy of scale for an industrial system. LCA results suggest that, compared with conventional LiOH and Li 2 CO 3 production pathways, the new technology achieves 1–95% reduction in environmental impacts. Even higher reduction can be achieved for LiOH produced via electrolysis. This add-on unit for lithium extraction could achieve a payback period of less than 1 year and reach net present values of $454M and $315M and internal rates of return of 792 and 1130% for LiOH and Li 2 CO 3 production pathways, respectively. The favorable environmental and economic performance suggests that LDH sorption coupled with forward osmosis has great potential to enable the domestic production of battery lithium compounds and that further development should be carried out.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Technical Report on Subsurface Monitoring of the Brady Hot Spring Geothermal Site, Nevada, based upon Full Waveform Inversion

Abilities to accurately characterize the subsurface in a geothermal setting is key to assess and support production. An important element of geothermal reservoir monitoring is also the ability to investigate fluid transport within fracture network. This report focuses on improving subsurface imaging and monitoring in geothermal settings using full waveform inversion based on the adjoint method and time-lapse imaging. To assess our method, we rely on a dense seismic dataset collected in 2016 at the Brady Hot Springs geothermal site in Nevada for the DOE-funded project Poroelastic Tomography by Adjoint Inverse Modeling of Data from Seismology, Geodesy, and Hydrology. This dataset captures subsurface changes across four stages of geothermal power plant operations, which involve varying rates of fluid injection and extraction. Two velocity models were previously derived from this dataset using different methods: one based on travel times and another on sweep interferometry. Our first step is to refine these models using adjoint tomography, which has been applied successfully at global and regional-scales but is less common at the reservoir-scale. Two approaches are then explored for time-lapse analysis: directly comparing refined tomographic models from different stages or backpropagating waveform differences relative to a baseline tomographic model. The main take away is that both approaches highlight similar reservoir behaviors, but the latter approach is more computationally effective in capturing small-scale changes in subsurface properties. For this work, we leverage the use of Salvus (www.mondaic.com), an end-to-end seismic imaging solution, relying on the spectral element method to compute forward and adjoint simulations, and developed by Mondaic Ltd. It includes integrated workflow management that handles waveform and metadata, launches simulations, computes waveform misfits and adjoint sources, and iterates for model updates by nonlinear optimization.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Analysis of the 2021 Milford, Utah earthquake swarm: Enhanced earthquake catalog and migration patterns

An earthquake swarm occurred in Spring 2021 in south-central Utah near the town of Milford. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations located 125 earthquakes between March 19 and May 10 with magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 3.2. We implement a matched-filter technique in order to identify additional earthquakes that went undetected during the routine network location. The 125 network-located earthquakes are used as templates and are cross-correlated with continuous data for the dates Feb 17—June 10. This time period corresponds to approximately 1 month before the earthquake swarm began through 1 month after it ended. For the matched-filter analysis, we rely heavily on station FOR1, which is located within 5 km of most template events. Four other stations within 20–30 km of most template events provide a supplement to the closest station. The matched-filter implementation results in the detection of over 600 earthquakes in addition to the original 125 catalog events. This is one of the largest swarms ever recorded in Utah, and no previous large swarms have been recorded in this location. We use HypoDD to obtain relative double-difference locations of the catalog events. Both routine locations and HypoDD relocations of the catalog events suggest a fault dipping west beneath the mountain range, opposite of typical Basin and Range normal faults that dip beneath alluvial valleys. Moment tensors for the largest five events show normal faulting consistent with the west-dipping fault seen in the seismicity. Hydrothermal features in the area, including a geothermal power plant, suggest that fluids may be a contributing factor to the earthquake swarm triggering. We examine the role of fluids by exploring bounds on diffusion parameters and investigating spatial migration characteristics of the swarm seismicity. We conclude that this swarm is the result of heterogenous stress conditions in a prefractured region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Helical screw expander evaluation project

A one MW helical rotary screw expander power system for electric power generation from geothermal brine was evaluated. The technology explored in the testing is simple, potentially very efficient, and ideally suited to wellhead installations in moderate to high enthalpy, liquid dominated field. A functional one MW geothermal electric power plant that featured a helical screw expander was produced and then tested with a demonstrated average performance of approximately 45% machine efficiency over a wide range of test conditions in noncondensing, operation on two-phase geothermal fluids. The Project also produced a computer equipped data system, an instrumentation and control van, and a 1000 kW variable load bank, all integrated into a test array designed for operation at a variety of remote test sites. Data are presented for the Utah testing and for the noncondensing phases of the testing in Mexico. Test time logged was 437 hours during the Utah tests and 1101 hours during the Mexico tests.

Mckay, R.↗

A Geospatial Cost Comparison of CO2 Plume Geothermal (CPG) Power and Geologic CO2 Storage

CO 2 Plume Geothermal (CPG) power plants can use gigatonne-levels of CO 2 sequestration to generate electricity, but it is unknown if the resources that support low-cost CPG power align with the resources that support low-cost CO 2 sequestration. Here, we estimate and compare the geospatially-distributed cost of CPG and CO 2 storage across a portion of North America. We find that the locations with lowest-cost CO 2 storage are different than the locations with lowest-cost CPG. There are also locations with low-cost CO 2 storage (<$5/tCO 2 ) that do not support CPG power generation due to insufficient reservoir transmissivity or temperature. Thus, CPG development may require electricity prices that are greater than the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to offset the increased cost of sequestration. We introduce the “Additional Cost of Electricity (ACOE)” metric to account for this cost and add it to the LCOE to calculate breakeven electricity prices that are required for CPG development. We find that breakeven prices are lower when new CO 2 injection wells are drilled specifically for CPG (i.e., “greenfield” CPG development) compared to if only existing CO 2 sequestration injection wells are used (i.e., “brownfield” CPG development). This is because comparatively few wells are needed for sequestration-only, and the increased power capacity from having more CPG wells outweighs the increased costs from more drilling. We also find that sequestered CO 2 could be used to approximately triple the United States geothermal electricity power capacity via a single CPG “sweet spot” in South Dakota, but that breakeven electricity price for this development is on the order of $200/MW e h.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

An Analysis of High Opportunity Geothermal Leasing Areas on BLM and USFS Lands

This analysis, conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), models potential geothermal deployment on BLM and USFS land for the years 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2050 under various scenarios using the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. This report identifies potential future high opportunity geothermal leasing areas (i.e., Best, Middle, and Least identified opportunities) based on available data for geothermal resource potential, natural resource conflicts, and transmission access. In addition, this analysis considers the impacts of the Energy Policy Act of 2005's (EPAct 2005's) default competitive leasing provisions, specifically the impact this may have had on geothermal resource discovery outside of known geothermal resource areas.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗

A Simple Data-Centric Methodology for Producible Geothermal Well Determinations: Preprint

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has traditionally lacked a standardized methodology for determining if a newly drilled geothermal well is "producible," a designation essential for deciding whether a lease should be "held by production." This is a straightforward problem to solve in oil and gas: Demonstrate that a well is economically viable, meaning it produces sufficient oil or gas to exceed direct operating costs and lease-related expenses, such as rentals or minimum royalties. In geothermal, the problem is more complex: Geothermal wells are tightly coupled with the downstream infrastructure - specifically, the power plant, which is often not designed until well after a lease is deemed as "held by production." Although this designation is critical for advancing geothermal power plant development on BLM-managed lands, current geothermal well assessments often rely on ad hoc approaches that can be complex, operator-biased, and heavy in assumptions related to economic viability. To address this, we have developed two complementary methodologies: a minimum power requirement-based approach and a productivity index (PI)-based approach. These methods leverage key flow test data - pressure, temperature, flow rate, and specific enthalpy - to provide reliable and standardized producible well determinations. The minimum power requirement-based approach evaluates wells against specific power output thresholds informed by reservoir experts and the associated temperature requirements. The PI-based approach assesses well productivity using widely accepted reservoir engineering metrics, proposing a threshold of 2.5 kg/s/bar. Both methods are data-driven and grounded in empirical production data from operational geothermal wells, avoiding uncertain economic assumptions while maintaining decision-making accuracy. Wells falling below key performance thresholds (i.e., PI, specific power) are deemed non-producible. These methodologies aim to streamline BLM's decision-making process, reduce nontechnical barriers to geothermal energy adoption, and enable regulatory expansion into states lacking geothermal expertise. Preliminary results indicate clear trends and thresholds in production data that provide actionable insights for evaluating well producibility. Validation using well completion report (WCR) data is ongoing, with promising results demonstrating the potential for these standardized methodologies to impact geothermal development significantly.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The value of in-reservoir energy storage for flexible dispatch of geothermal power

Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Thermal Stimulation and Injectivity Testing at Raft River, ID EGS Site

The Raft River geothermal field is the site of an innovative Department of Energy Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project to determine the viability of using combined thermal and hydraulic stimulation techniques to improve energy production. Well RRG-9 is currently undergoing a stimulation program using injectate from the US Geothermal Raft River Power Plant and cold water from a cooling tower make-up water well. The stimulation began on 13 June 2013 with injection from the power plant at a temperature of about 39 °C and a pressure of 275 psig. Next, two positive displacement plunger type pumps were used to increase the injection pressure and flow rate for about one month. The highest rate achieved was 258 gpm at a pressure of 741 psig. During this time, fluid from the cooler water well was injected for about 2 weeks at various pressures. Then, the pumps were removed and plant injection resumed on 25 September. Plant injection will continue until the spring of 2014, when a high pressure hydraulic stimulation will be conducted. A series of seismic monitoring stations deployed around the well are providing data on seismic events occurring at the site. Over the past year, 51 microseismic events have been recorded, all less than Magnitude 1. During injection, several diagnostic tests were conducted to gain a better understanding of the well and reservoir. A step-rate test was performed on 22 August to measure the in-situ stress and aid in modeling in-situ fractures. A tracer was injected into the well on 9 September. No tracer was detected in adjacent production wells after several months. A second borehole televiewer survey was conducted for comparison to pre-stimulation images. Here, a third borehole televiewer survey is planned after the high pressure stimulation. Injection test data is evaluated in real time. A modified Hall plot analysis indicates the effective permeability is increasing. The injectivity index supports the results of the modified Hall plot analysis. As the thermal stimulation has continued, the injectivity index has consistently followed an upward trend from 0.1 gpm/psi to 0.53 gpm/psi.

enhanced geothermal systems↗

NEWTS Integrated Dataset (version 2.0)

The National Energy Water Treatment and Speciation (NEWTS) Integrated Dataset v2.0 provides water researchers, community leaders, regulators, and industry stakeholders with a unified and standardized energy-process wastewater chemistry database. This resource is derived from 39 state and federal entities, and scientific publications, and contains more than 700,000 sample records, many of which also provide geospatial information. The dataset includes chemistry data for several different energy-process wastewater types including produced water, other oil and gas wastewaters, mine drainage, coal ash leachate, power plant wastewater, and geothermal fluids. The NEWTS Integrated Dataset was built to support prudent decision-making, characterization of potential critical mineral sources, and modeling of treatment and valorization options. A subset of this novel resource is also featured on the NEWTS State-Level Database Dashboard. Additional data can be found in the NEWTS EDX Group and the NEWTS Federal Database Dashboard.

AMD↗

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Using Concentrating Solar Power to Create a Geological Thermal Energy Reservoir for Seasonal Storage and Flexible Power Plant Operation

Abstract We propose a hybrid renewable energy system—a geothermal energy storage system (GeoTES) with solar—to provide low-cost dispatchable power at various timescales from daily, to weekly, to seasonally. GeoTES with solar uses a concentrating solar power collector field to produce hot water that is injected into a sedimentary basin to create a synthetic geothermal resource. The stored geothermal heat can then be dispatched when required by the electrical grid. GeoTES is particularly valuable for a grid with a high penetration of non-flexible renewable technologies such as photovoltaic and wind power. In this work, a sophisticated hybrid model is developed to assess the technical and economic potential of GeoTES by combining IPSEpro, which is a power-cycle simulation tool, and SAM, an economic analysis tool by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The analysis shows with proper initial charging period that the heat loss in storage is almost negligible and is a suitable technology for long-term energy storage. Various power-cycle options are evaluated, and the most suitable power cycle is selected for further study. Annual calculations of the GeoTES system indicate that a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) of 12.4 ¢/kWh e can be achieved for seasonal storage of 4000 h; this value is much lower than the existing long-term storage. The LCOS of GeoTES is insensitive to the storage duration above 8 h, unlike battery and molten-salt thermal storage systems. This result demonstrates that GeoTES can be a competitive seasonal storage technology in the future electricity market. The levelized cost of electricity of the GeoTES system is also carefully analyzed and can vary between 10.0 and 16.4 ¢/kWh e , depending on solar-collector prices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Physics-Informed Deep Learning-Based Proof-of-Concept Study of a Novel Elastohydrodynamic Seal for Supercritical CO 2 Turbomachinery

Supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles show promising potential of higher plant efficiencies and power densities for a wide range of power generation applications such as fossil fuel power plants, nuclear power production, solar power, and geothermal power generation. sCO 2 leakage through the turbomachinery has been one of the main concerns in such applications. To offer a potential solution, we propose an elastohydrodynamic (EHD) seal that can work at elevated pressures and temperatures with low leakage and minimal wear. The EHD seal has a very simple, sleeve-like structure, wrapping on the rotor with minimal initial clearance at micron levels. Here, in this work, a proof-of-concept study for the proposed EHD seal was presented by using the simplified Reynolds equation and Lame’s formula for the fluid flow in the clearance and for seal deformation, respectively. The set of nonlinear equations was solved by using both the conventional Prediction–Correction (PC) method and modern Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). It was shown that the physics-informed deep learning method provided good computational efficiency in resolving the steep pressure gradient in the clearance with good accuracy. The results showed that the leakage rates increased quadratically with working pressures and reached a steady-state at high-pressure values of 15~20 MPa, where Q = 300 g/s at 20 MPa for an initial seal clearance of 255 μm. This indicates that the EHD seal could be tailored to become a potential solution to minimize the sCO 2 discharge in power plants.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗