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At least 55 records · Page 3

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Weather disturbances↗

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much further into the future.

Molnar, Guyla I.↗

The MJO-QBO Relationship in a GCM with Stratospheric Nudging

Observational studies show a strong connection between the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the boreal winter MJO is stronger, more predictable, and has different teleconnections when the QBO in the lower stratosphere is easterly versus westerly. Despite the strength of the observed connection, global climate models do not produce an MJO-QBO link. Here the authors use a current-generation ocean-atmosphere coupled NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (Model E2.1) to examine the MJO-QBO link. To represent the QBO with minimal bias, the model zonal mean stratospheric zonal and meridional winds are relaxed to reanalysis fields from 1980-2017. The model troposphere, including the MJO, is allowed to freely evolve. The model with stratospheric nudging captures QBO signals well, including QBO temperature anomalies. However, an ensemble of nudged simulations still lacks an MJO-QBO connection.

Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)↗

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Crane, Robert G.↗

Environmental benefits of chemical propulsion

This paper identifies the necessity of chemical propulsion to satellite usage and some of the benefits accrued through monitoring global resources and patterns, including the Global Climate Change Model (GCM). The paper also summarized how the satellite observations are used to affect national and international policies. Chemical propulsion, like all environmentally conscious industries, does provide limited, controlled pollutant sources through its manufacture and usage. However, chemical propulsion is the sole source which enables mankind to launch spacecraft and monitor the Earth. The information provided by remote sensing directly affects national and international policies designed to protect the environment and enhance the overall quality of life on Earth. The resultant of chemical propulsion is the capability to reduce overall pollutant emissions to the benefit of mankind.

Hayes, Joyce A.↗

Global Precipitation Measurement: Methods, Datasets and Applications

This paper reviews the many aspects of precipitation measurement that are relevant to providing an accurate global assessment of this important environmental parameter. Methods discussed include ground data, satellite estimates and numerical models. First, the methods for measuring, estimating, and modeling precipitation are discussed. Then, the most relevant datasets gathering precipitation information from those three sources are presented. The third part of the paper illustrates a number of the many applications of those measurements and databases. The aim of the paper is to organize the many links and feedbacks between precipitation measurement, estimation and modeling, indicating the uncertainties and limitations of each technique in order to identify areas requiring further attention, and to show the limits within which datasets can be used.

Global Climate Models (GCM)↗

Extratropical Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in the Southern Hemisphere on Mars

From late-autumn through early-spring, the middle- and high-latitudes of both hemispheres of Mars and its predominantly carbon-dioxide atmosphere support mean equator-to-pole thermal contrasts, and then, support a strong mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from orbiting spacecraft indicate that this intense mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient, traveling synoptic-period waves, on the order of the Rossby deformation scale). On Earth, extratropical weather disturbances arise from wind-shear instabilities, and these are critical components of the terrestrial global circulation. So it is the case for Mars. Large-scale traveling weather systems on Mars serve as agents in the transport of heat, momentum and scalar and tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, watervapor, ice clouds, chemical species, etc). Such weather systems interact with other large-scale atmospheric circulation components, namely, quasi-stationary (i.e., forced Rossby) modes; global thermal tidal modes; and then, upon large-/continental- geographical scales, upslope/ down-slope flows amongst high relief, low relief, impact basins, and volcanic rises, and more. The character of Mars' traveling extratropical weather disturbances in its southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (i.e., Mars GCM), and one from the Agency's Mars Climate Modeling Center (MCMC) based at the NASA Ames Research Center. The climate model includes several complex atmospheric physical packages. With such physics modules, our global climate simulations present comparatively well with observations of the planet's current water cycle (Haberle et al.,2019). The climate model is "forced" with an annual dust cycle (i.e., nudged based on MGS/TES observations). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

Temperature and Chemical Species Distributions in the Middle Atmosphere Observed during Titan's Late Northern Spring to Early Summer

We present a study of the seasonal evolution of Titan’s thermal field and distributions of haze, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6, CH3C2H, C3H8, C4H2, C6H6, HCN, and HC3N from March 2015 (Ls = 66°) to September 2017 (Ls = 93°) (i.e., from the last third of northern spring to early summer). We analyzed thermal emission of Titan’s atmosphere acquired by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer with limb and nadir geometry to retrieve the stratospheric and mesospheric temperature and mixing ratios pole-to-pole meridional cross sections from 5 mbar to 50 μbar (120–650 km). The southern stratopause varied in a complex way and showed a global temperature increase from 2015 to 2017 at high-southern latitudes. Stratospheric southern polar temperatures, which were observed to be as low as 120 K in early 2015 due to the polar night, showed a 30 K increase (at 0.5 mbar) from March 2015 to May 2017 due to adiabatic heating in the subsiding branch of the global overturning circulation. All photochemical compounds were enriched at the south pole by this subsidence. Polar cross sections of these enhanced species, which are good tracers of the global dynamics, highlighted changes in the structure of the southern polar vortex. These high enhancements combined with the unusually low temperatures (<120 K) of the deep stratosphere resulted in condensation at the south pole between 0.1 and 0.03 mbar (240–280 km) of HCN, HC3N, C6H6 and possibly C4H2 in March 2015 (Ls = 66°). These molecules were observed to condense deeper with increasing distance from the south pole. At high-northern latitudes, stratospheric enrichments remaining from the winter were observed below 300 km between 2015 and May 2017 (Ls = 90°) for all chemical compounds and up to September 2017 (Ls = 93°) for C2H2, C2H4, CH3C2H, C3H8, and C4H2. In September 2017, these local enhancements were less pronounced than earlier for C2H2, C4H2, CH3C2H, HC3N, and HCN, and were no longer observed for C2H6 and C6 H6, which suggests a change in the northern polar dynamics near the summer solstice. These enhancements observed during the entire spring may be due to confinement of this enriched air by a small remaining winter circulation cell that persisted in the low stratosphere up to the northern summer solstice, according to predictions of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Titan Global Climate Model (IPSL Titan GCM). In the mesosphere we derived a depleted layer in C2H2, HCN, and C2H6 from the north pole to mid-southern latitudes, while C4H2, C3H4, C2H4, and HC3N seem to have been enriched in the same region. In the deep stratosphere, all molecules except C2H4 were depleted due to their condensation sink located deeper than 5 mbar outside the southern polar vortex. HCN, C4H2, and CH3C2H volume mixing ratio cross section contours showed steep slopes near the mid-latitudes or close to the equator, which can be explained by upwelling air in this region. Upwelling is also supported by the cross section of the C2H4 (the only molecule not condensing among those studied here) volume mixing ratio observed in the northern hemisphere. We derived the zonal wind velocity up to mesospheric levels from the retrieved thermal field. We show that zonal winds were faster and more confined around the south pole in 2015 (Ls = 67−72°) than later. In 2016, the polar zonal wind speed decreased while the fastest winds had migrated toward low-southern latitudes.

S Vinatier↗

Research into the influence of spatial variability and scale on the parameterization of hydrological processes

The objectives of the research were as follows: (1) Extend the Representative Elementary Area (RE) concept, first proposed and developed in Wood et al, (1988), to the water balance fluxes of the interstorm period (redistribution, evapotranspiration and baseflow) necessary for the analysis of long-term water balance processes. (2) Derive spatially averaged water balance model equations for spatially variable soil, topography and vegetation, over A RANGE OF CLIMATES. This is a necessary step in our goal to derive consistent hydrologic results up to GCM grid scales necessary for global climate modeling. (3) Apply the above macroscale water balance equations with remotely sensed data and begin to explore the feasibility of parameterizing the water balance constitutive equations at GCM grid scale.

Wood, Eric F.↗

Simulating the Martian Middle and Upper Atmosphere with the NASA Ames Mars GCM.

The NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) continues to be utilized to examine the dynamical coupling between the lower atmosphere and middle/upper atmosphere. This coupling impacts the transport of water, dust, and chemistry which augments the thermal structure and circulation. The interactions and coupling within the atmosphere are important for understanding the present-day and past atmosphere and climate. MGCM simulations are compared with observations from recent Mars missions to provide model constraints, and in turn, the simulations can then provide context to the observations. This cycle is important to move us forward in our understanding of planetary atmospheres. We will present on one of the fundamental atmospheric features, the thermal structure, and how the physics in the MGCM can elucidate the observed diurnal and seasonal behavior. Additionally, we will focus on the distribution of chemical species which influences the thermal structure and provides additional information on the coupling between the lower and middle/upper atmosphere. Lastly, we will provide a summary of the model capabilities, as the MGCM continues to be improved upon to properly simulate Mars’ atmosphere from the ground to ~250 km.

Amanda Susanne Brecht↗

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Climate Change; GCMs; Climate Model Subset; Repres↗

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Price, Colin↗

Allowing for Horizontally Heterogeneous Clouds and Generalized Overlap in an Atmospheric GCM

While fully accounting for 3D effects in Global Climate Models (GCMs) appears not realistic at the present time for a variety of reasons such as computational cost and unavailability of 3D cloud structure in the models, incorporation in radiation schemes of subgrid cloud variability described by one-point statistics is now considered feasible and is being actively pursued. This development has gained momentum once it was demonstrated that CPU-intensive spectrally explicit Independent Column Approximation (lCA) can be substituted by stochastic Monte Carlo ICA (McICA) calculations where spectral integration is accomplished in a manner that produces relatively benign random noise. The McICA approach has been implemented in Goddard's GEOS-5 atmospheric GCM as part of the implementation of the RRTMG radiation package. GEOS-5 with McICA and RRTMG can handle horizontally variable clouds which can be set via a cloud generator to arbitrarily overlap within the full spectrum of maximum and random both in terms of cloud fraction and layer condensate distributions. In our presentation we will show radiative and other impacts of the combined horizontal and vertical cloud variability on multi-year simulations of an otherwise untuned GEOS-5 with fixed SSTs. Introducing cloud horizontal heterogeneity without changing the mean amounts of condensate reduces reflected solar and increases thermal radiation to space, but disproportionate changes may increase the radiative imbalance at TOA. The net radiation at TOA can be modulated by allowing the parameters of the generalized overlap and heterogeneity scheme to vary, a dependence whose behavior we will discuss. The sensitivity of the cloud radiative forcing to the parameters of cloud horizontal heterogeneity and comparisons of CERES-derived forcing will be shown.

Lee, D.↗

Diagnosing Warm Season Precipitation Over the GCIP Region from a GCM and Reanalysis

A 45 year simulation using a global general circulation model (GCM), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model v.3 (CCM3), forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST), and 39 years of global National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses were analyzed to determine Mississippi River basin warm season (May, June, July or MJJ) wet and dry year composites in the water and energy budgets. Years that have increased MJJ soil moisture over the GEWEX (Global Water and Energy Experiment) Continental Interior Project (GCIP) region also have high precipitation, lower surface temperature, decreased Bowen ratio, and reduced 500 hPa geopotential height (essentially reduced MJJ ridging). The reverse is true for years that have reduced MJJ soil moisture. Wet years are also accompanied by a general increase in moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central U.S. There is some indication (though weaker) that soil moisture may then affect precipitation and other quantities and be affected in turn by 500 hPa geopotential heights. The correlations are somewhat low, however, demonstrating the difficulty in providing definitive physical links between the remote and local effects. Analysis of two individual years with an extreme wet event (1993) and an extreme dry event (1988) yields the same general relationships as with the wet and dry composites. The composites from this study are currently serving as the basis for a series of experiments aimed at determining the predictability of the land surface and remote SST on the Mississippi River basin and other large-scale river basins.

Oglesby, Robert↗

NASA Earth Exchange – Current overview of climate and wildfire-oriented works

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) combines state-of-the-art supercomputing, Earth system modeling, and NASA remote sensing data feeds to deliver a work environment for exploring and analyzing petabyte-scale datasets covering large regions, continents, or the globe. As an accessible platform, NEX can accelerate fundamental research, develop new applications, and reduce overall project costs by providing the research community with data, software, and high-end computing power. Two research thrusts for the NEX community are developing and distributing the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 downscaled climate dataset and the community-driven wildfire research. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and across two of the four “Tier 1” greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The wildfire research thrust leverages geostationary and low earth orbit remote sensing platforms and advanced modeling (WRF). We present a high-level overview of the NEX community, discuss relevant datasets and show several visualization techniques of data used in the wildfire research activity.

NEX↗

Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications

The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.

Posselt, Derek J.↗