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Integrating Data from GRACE and Other Observing Systems for Hydrological Research and Applications

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides a unique view of water cycle dynamics, enabling the only space based observations of water on and beneath the land surface that are not limited by depth. GRACE data are immediately useful for large scale applications such as ice sheet ablation monitoring, but they are even more valuable when combined with other types of observations, either directly or within a data assimilation system. Here we describe recent results of hydrological research and applications projects enabled by GRACE. These include the following: 1) global monitoring of interannual variability of terrestrial water storage and groundwater; 2) water balance estimates of evapotranspiration over several large river basins; 3) NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) state of the global water budget project; 4) drought indicator products now being incorporated into the U.S. Drought Monitor; 5) GRACE data assimilation over several regions.

Rodell, M.↗

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data into a Land Surface Model

The NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) system of satellites provides observations of large-scale, monthly terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes. In. this presentation we describe a land data assimilation system that ingests GRACE observations and show that the assimilation improves estimates of water storage and fluxes, as evaluated against independent measurements. The ensemble-based land data assimilation system uses a Kalman smoother approach along with the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). We assimilated GRACE-derived TWS anomalies for each of the four major sub-basins of the Mississippi into the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). Compared with the open-loop (no assimilation) CLSM simulation, assimilation estimates of groundwater variability exhibited enhanced skill with respect to measured groundwater. Assimilation also significantly increased the correlation between simulated TWS and gauged river flow for all four sub-basins and for the Mississippi River basin itself. In addition, model performance was evaluated for watersheds smaller than the scale of GRACE observations, in the majority of cases, GRACE assimilation led to increased correlation between TWS estimates and gauged river flow, indicating that data assimilation has considerable potential to downscale GRACE data for hydrological applications. We will also describe how the output from the GRACE land data assimilation system is now being prepared for use in the North American Drought Monitor.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Measuring Greenland Ice Mass Variation With Gravity Recovery and the Climate Experiment Gravity and GPS

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori uncertainties in the parameters and a Gaussian correlation length of 350 km. Simulated inverse can successfully recover most features in the reference present-day change. The RMS difference between them over the grids is 2.8 cm/yr. The RMS difference becomes 1.1 cm/yr when both are averaged with a half Gaussian wavelength of 150 km. With a fixed Earth model, GRACE alone can separate the geoid signals due to past and current load fairly well. Shown are the reference geoid signatures of direct and elastic effects of the current trend, the viscoelastic effect of the same trend starting from 5 kyr ago, the Post Glacial Rebound (PGR), and the predicted GRACE geoid error. The difference between the reference and inverse modeled total viscoelastic signatures is also shown. Although past and current ice mass variations are allowed the same spatial scale, their geoid signals have different spatial patterns. GPS data can contribute to the ice mass determination as well. Additional information is contained in the original.

Wu, Xiao-Ping↗

A Comparison of Groundwater Storage Using GRACE Data, Groundwater Levels, and a Hydrological Model in Californias Central Valley

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measures changes in total water storage (TWS) remotely, and may provide additional insight to the use of well-based data in California's agriculturally productive Central Valley region. Under current California law, well owners are not required to report groundwater extraction rates, making estimation of total groundwater extraction difficult. As a result, other groundwater change detection techniques may prove useful. From October 2002 to September 2009, GRACE was used to map changes in TWS for the three hydrological regions (the Sacramento River Basin, the San Joaquin River Basin, and the Tulare Lake Basin) encompassing the Central Valley aquifer. Net groundwater storage changes were calculated from the changes in TWS for each of the three hydrological regions and by incorporating estimates for additional components of the hydrological budget including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow pack, and surface water storage. The calculated changes in groundwater storage were then compared to simulated values from the California Department of Water Resource's Central Valley Groundwater- Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and their Water Data Library (WDL) Geographic Information System (GIS) change in storage tool. The results from the three methods were compared. Downscaling GRACE data into the 21 smaller Central Valley sub-regions included in C2VSIM was also evaluated. This work has the potential to improve California's groundwater resource management and use of existing hydrological models for the Central Valley.

Department of Water Resources↗

GRACE Mission Design: Impact of Uncertainties in Disturbance Environment and Satellite Force Models

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) primary mission will be performed by making measurements of the inter-satellite range change between two co-planar, low altitude, near-polar orbiting satellites. Understanding the uncertainties in the disturbance environment, particularly the aerodynamic drag and torques, is critical in several mission areas. These include an accurate estimate of the spacecraft orbital lifetime, evaluation of spacecraft attitude control requirements, and estimation of the orbital maintenance maneuver frequency necessitated by differences in the drag forces acting on both satellites. The FREEMOL simulation software has been developed and utilized to analyze and suggest design modifications to the GRACE spacecraft. Aerodynamic accommodation bounding analyses were performed and worst-case envelopes were obtained for the aerodynamic torques and the differential ballistic coefficients between the leading and trailing GRACE spacecraft. These analyses demonstrate how spacecraft aerodynamic design and analysis can benefit from a better understanding of spacecraft surface accommodation properties, and the implications for mission design constraints such as formation spacing control.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

Assimilation of Terrestrial Water Storage from GRACE in a Snow-Dominated Basin

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) information derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements is assimilated into a land surface model over the Mackenzie River basin located in northwest Canada. Assimilation is conducted using an ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS). Model estimates with and without assimilation are compared against independent observational data sets of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. For SWE, modest improvements in mean difference (MD) and root mean squared difference (RMSD) are achieved as a result of the assimilation. No significant differences in temporal correlations of SWE resulted. Runoff statistics of MD remain relatively unchanged while RMSD statistics, in general, are improved in most of the sub-basins. Temporal correlations are degraded within the most upstream sub-basin, but are, in general, improved at the downstream locations, which are more representative of an integrated basin response. GRACE assimilation using an EnKS offers improvements in hydrologic state/flux estimation, though comparisons with observed runoff would be enhanced by the use of river routing and lake storage routines within the prognostic land surface model. Further, GRACE hydrology products would benefit from the inclusion of better constrained models of post-glacial rebound, which significantly affects GRACE estimates of interannual hydrologic variability in the Mackenzie River basin.

Forman, Barton A.↗

Assimilation of Gridded Terrestrial Water Storage Observations from GRACE into a Land Surface Model

Observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 km(sup 2) at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This work proposes a variant of existing ensemble-based GRACE-TWS data assimilation schemes. The new algorithm differs in how the analysis increments are computed and applied. Existing schemes correlate the uncertainty in the modeled monthly TWS estimates with errors in the soil moisture profile state variables at a single instant in the month and then apply the increment either at the end of the month or gradually throughout the month. The proposed new scheme first computes increments for each day of the month and then applies the average of those increments at the beginning of the month. The new scheme therefore better reflects submonthly variations in TWS errors. The new and existing schemes are investigated here using gridded GRACE-TWS observations. The assimilation results are validated at the monthly time scale, using in situ measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture across the U.S. The new assimilation scheme yields improved (although not in a statistically significant sense) skill metrics for groundwater compared to the open-loop (no assimilation) simulations and compared to the existing assimilation schemes. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture, which have a shorter memory and receive smaller increments from TWS assimilation than groundwater. These results motivate future efforts to combine GRACE-TWS observations with observations that are more sensitive to surface soil moisture, such as L-band brightness temperature observations from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) or Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Finally, we demonstrate that the scaling parameters that are applied to the GRACE observations prior to assimilation should be consistent with the land surface model that is used within the assimilation system.

GRACE↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

B. D. Loomis↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

Loomis, B. D.↗

Application of Satellite Gravimetry for Water Resource Vulnerability Assessment

The force of Earth's gravity field varies in proportion to the amount of mass near the surface. Spatial and temporal variations in the gravity field can be measured via their effects on the orbits of satellites. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is the first satellite mission dedicated to monitoring temporal variations in the gravity field. The monthly gravity anomaly maps that have been delivered by GRACE since 2002 are being used to infer changes in terrestrial water storage (the sum of groundwater, soil moisture, surface waters, and snow and ice), which are the primary source of gravity variability on monthly to decadal timescales after atmospheric and oceanic circulation effects have been removed. Other remote sensing techniques are unable to detect water below the first few centimeters of the land surface. Conventional ground based techniques can be used to monitor terrestrial water storage, but groundwater, soil moisture, and snow observation networks are sparse in most of the world, and the countries that do collect such data rarely are willing to share them. Thus GRACE is unique in its ability to provide global data on variations in the availability of fresh water, which is both vital to life on land and vulnerable to climate variability and mismanagement. This chapter describes the unique and challenging aspects of GRACE terrestrial water storage data, examples of how the data have been used for research and applications related to fresh water vulnerability and change, and prospects for continued contributions of satellite gravimetry to water resources science and policy.

Rodell, Matthew↗

Benefits and Pitfalls of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data Assimilation

Satellite observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 sq km at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Nonetheless, data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This presentation illustrates some of the benefits and drawbacks of assimilating TWS observations from GRACE into a land surface model over the continental United States and India. The assimilation scheme yields improved skill metrics for groundwater compared to the no-assimilation simulations. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture. Further, GRACE observes TWS depletion associated with anthropogenic groundwater extraction. Results from the assimilation emphasize the importance of representing anthropogenic processes in land surface modeling and data assimilation systems.

TWS↗

An Analysis of Gravity-Field Estimation Based on Intersatellite Dual-1-Way Biased Ranging

The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission is designed to make global, highly accurate measurements of the Earth's gravity field with high spatial resolution. Ancillary GPS occultation measurements are also to be carried out for atmospheric monitoring. In the dual-1-way biased ranging of this mission, the range between two satellites separated by 100 to 200 km in nearly polar, coplanar, circular orbits, is measured to very high precision, to within an additive constant, through the exchange of K- and Ka-band sinusoidal signals. Such biased ranging data, along with GPS L-band range and phase data, can be processed and fit over successive multiday intervals to obtain accurate estimates of the Earth's gravity field. This report approximately models and analyzes this process, from the generation of the RF signals at the two satellites through the extraction of the geopotential. The steps include generation of the transmitted signals, processing the received signals to extract high-rate baseband phase, carrying out a dual-1-way combination of baseband phase to extract high-rate biased range for each band, combining K- and Ka-band ranges to correct for the ionosphere effect, and processing the resulting high-rate biased range values to extract three types of reduced-rate observables: biased range, range rate and range acceleration. The version of dual-1-way biased ranging developed by this report improves upon previous versions in a number of ways: highly accurate satellite-timetag corrections derived from concurrent GPS data, better baseband phase extraction using highly digital processing, highly accurate USO-rate calibration derived from concurrent GPS data, an improved method for extracting high-rate biased range from baseband phase, improved filtering for extracting reduced- rate observables from high-rate biased range, and parallel extraction of three observable types.

SINUSOIDAL SIGNALS↗

Comparison of Polar Motion Excitation Series Derived from GRACE and from Analyses of Geophysical Fluids

Three sets of degree-2, order-1 harmonics of the gravity field, derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data processed at the Center for Space Research (CSR), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and GeoforschungsZentrum (GFZ), are used to compute polar motion excitation functions X1 and X2. The GFZ and JPL excitations and the CSR X2, excitation compare generally well with geodetically observed excitation after removal of effects of oceanic currents and atmospheric winds. The agreement considerably exceeds that from previous GRACE data releases. For the JPL series, levels of correlation with the geodetic observations and the variance explained are comparable to, but still lower than, those obtained independently from available models and analyses of the atmosphere, ocean, and land hydrology. Improvements in data quality of gravity missions are still needed to deliver even tighter constraints on mass-related excitation of polar motion.

Nastula, J.↗

Global Mass Flux Solutions from GRACE: A Comparison of Parameter Estimation Strategies - Mass Concentrations Versus Stokes Coefficients

The differences between mass concentration (mas con) parameters and standard Stokes coefficient parameters in the recovery of gravity infonnation from gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) intersatellite K-band range rate data are investigated. First, mascons are decomposed into their Stokes coefficient representations to gauge the range of solutions available using each of the two types of parameters. Next, a direct comparison is made between two time series of unconstrained gravity solutions, one based on a set of global equal area mascon parameters (equivalent to 4deg x 4deg at the equator), and the other based on standard Stokes coefficients with each time series using the same fundamental processing of the GRACE tracking data. It is shown that in unconstrained solutions, the type of gravity parameter being estimated does not qualitatively affect the estimated gravity field. It is also shown that many of the differences in mass flux derivations from GRACE gravity solutions arise from the type of smoothing being used and that the type of smoothing that can be embedded in mas con solutions has distinct advantages over postsolution smoothing. Finally, a 1 year time series based on global 2deg equal area mascons estimated every 10 days is presented.

Rowlands, D. D.↗

Basin-Scale River Runoff Estimation from GRACE Gravity Satellites, Climate Models and In Situ Observations: a Case Study in the Amazon Basin

River runoff is estimated as a water budget residual using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage time series, ERA5 reanalysis data, and precipitation observations for January 2003 through December 2015 for the Obidos upstream drainage basin and for the entire Amazon basin. Estimated runoff based on the water budget agrees remarkably well with in situgauge observations at Obidos, especially at seasonal time scales, with nearly perfect phase agreementbut slightly larger seasonal amplitude. The discrepancy in the seasonal amplitude maybe attributed to underestimation of river gauge runoff during the wet season when water overflows the riverbanks. The ERA5 model appears to overestimate long-term mean evapotranspiration in the Amazon by ~2 cm/monthb ased on comparisons with precipitation and runoff observations. Using precipitation data based on satellites and gauge observations relative to gauge observations alone improved agreement between water budget runoff estimates and in situ runoff observations. Seasonal variations in ERA5 simulated runoff are about twice as large as those from in situobservations and show a large phase lag as well. Water budget based runoff for the entire Amazon (~ 7,200 km3averaged 29over the 13 yr period) is significantly larger than observed runoff (~5,700 km3) at notably larger than previous estimates for the entire Amazon. These differences may be partly related to submarine runoff from the Amazon basin that cannot be captured by surface gauges.

Jianli Chen↗

Groundwater Depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region

In this study, we use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to evaluate freshwater storage trends in the north-central Middle East, including portions of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and western Iran, from January 2003 to December 2009. GRACE data show an alarming rate of decrease in total water storage of approximately -27.2 plus or minus 0.6 mm per yr equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 143.6 cubic kilometers during the course of the study period. Additional remote-sensing information and output from land surface models were used to identify that groundwater losses are the major source of this trend. The approach used in this study provides an example of ''best current capabilities'' in regions like the Middle East, where data access can be severely limited. Results indicate that the region lost 17.3 plus or minus 2.1 mm per yr equivalent water height of groundwater during the study period, or 91.3 plus or minus 10.9 cubic kilometers in volume. Furthermore, results raise important issues regarding water use in transboundary river basins and aquifers, including the necessity of international water use treaties and resolving discrepancies in international water law, while amplifying the need for increased monitoring for core components of the water budget

remote sensing↗

Groundwater Depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region

In this study, we use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to evaluate freshwater storage trends in the north-central Middle East, including portions of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and western Iran, from January 2003 to December 2009. GRACE data show an alarming rate of decrease in total water storage of approximately -27.2 plus or minus 0.6 millimeters per year equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 143.6 cubic kimometers during the course of the study period. Additional remote-sensing information and output from land surface models were used to identify that groundwater losses are the major source of this trend. The approach used in this study provides an example of ''best current capabilities'' in regions like the Middle East, where data access can be severely limited. Results indicate that the region lost 17.3 plus or minus 2.1 millimeters per year equivalent water height of groundwater during the study period, or 91.3 plus or minus 10.9 cubic kilometers in volume. Furthermore, results raise important issues regarding water use in transboundary river basins and aquifers, including the necessity of international water use treaties and resolving discrepancies in international water law, while amplifying the need for increased monitoring for core components of the water budget.

GRACE↗

Use of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals to Evaluate Model Estimates by the Australian Water Resources Assessment System

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates retrievals from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were compared to TWS modeled by the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. The aim was to test whether differences could be attributed and used to identify model deficiencies. Data for 2003 2010 were decomposed into the seasonal cycle, linear trends and the remaining de-trended anomalies before comparing. AWRA tended to have smaller seasonal amplitude than GRACE. GRACE showed a strong (greater than 15 millimeter per year) drying trend in northwest Australia that was associated with a preceding period of unusually wet conditions, whereas weaker drying trends in the southern Murray Basin and southwest Western Australia were associated with relatively dry conditions. AWRA estimated trends were less negative for these regions, while a more positive trend was estimated for areas affected by cyclone Charlotte in 2009. For 2003-2009, a decrease of 7-8 millimeter per year (50-60 cubic kilometers per year) was estimated from GRACE, enough to explain 6-7% of the contemporary rate of global sea level rise. This trend was not reproduced by the model. Agreement between model and data suggested that the GRACE retrieval error estimates are biased high. A scaling coefficient applied to GRACE TWS to reduce the effect of signal leakage appeared to degrade quantitative agreement for some regions. Model aspects identified for improvement included a need for better estimation of rainfall in northwest Australia, and more sophisticated treatment of diffuse groundwater discharge processes and surface-groundwater connectivity for some regions.

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.↗