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At least 55 records · Page 3

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Boundary Layer Climatology at ARM Southern Great Plains

Operational since 1992, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) southern great plains (SGP) site at Oklahoma, USA has become a reference research site for meteorological studies. Due to an open data policy the ARM data are used by researchers all over the world. In this report, we review the long-term climatology of the atmospheric boundary layer, SGP instrumentations, the site and some site-specific atmospheric conditions which potentially effect wind turbines within the region. As the atmospheric boundary layer is bounded and influenced by the surface, observations of surface radiation components and heat fluxes are crucial in understanding land-atmosphere interactions. The entrainment of air, updrafts, downdrafts and boundary layer height characteristics is needed for understanding the structure and growth of the atmospheric boundary layer. Therefore, measurements from both surface in-situ and remote sensing observations at SGP provide an overall climatology and their interactions from surface up to the boundary layer. Measurements from a 60 m meteorological tower, surface flux stations, disdrometers, soil temperature and moisture flux plates, coherent Doppler lidar, Raman lidar, radiosondes, and satellite data at SGP central facility were analyzed. All the measurements were generally within a few square kilometers of each other at the central facility. This report focuses on data from January 2010 to June 2020 at SGP central facility. The various sections describe the ARM SGP site and surrounding wind turbines; in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation used in the report; provides mathematical equations to analyze fluxes, turbulence and other boundary layer parameters; a climatological analysis of surface winds, fluxes and thermodynamic parameters for several years; an analysis of observed winds in the framework of Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory; an analysis of the boundary layer winds and direction from a Doppler lidar; multi-year turbulence estimates through the boundary layer from a Doppler lidar; atmospheric boundary layer water vapor and relative humidity profiles from Raman lidar; cloud base height and boundary layer height from multiple sensors and satellite data; and finally site specific atmospheric conditions, such as nocturnal low-level jets. Diurnal, seasonal and yearly variations of surface, sub-surface and boundary layer quantities, such as wind speed, direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, soil temperature, and various atmospheric fluxes at SGP showed distinct trends useful for focused modeling studies. The applicability of surface similarity theory on ARM SGP data is also evaluated, which showed northerly flows are aligned with MO theory estimates compared to southerly flows. Boundary layer winds and direction profiles for several years from a Doppler lidar shows a consistent presence of a nocturnal low-level jet and predominant southerly wind directions through the boundary layer at SGP. The inter-annual variability at SGP is low (<3.5%), with a mean annual wind speed of approximately 7 m s -1 at 100 m above ground level. Boundary layer turbulence and moisture transport from Doppler and Raman lidars are evaluated, which provides evidence of increased water vapor mass flux into the great plains during nocturnal low-level jets. The moisture flux from nocturnal low-level jets is observed to be maximum during summer periods. A novel machine learning algorithm is implemented to accurately estimate the planetary boundary layer height, providing further insights into growth and destruction of the convective boundary layer height during various seasons and land-atmosphere conditions. The high frequency of low-level clouds during winter, spring and fall seasons is validated using the multi-sensor array and satellite estimates of cloud top height. Satellite vegetative fraction data provides insight into seasonal surface roughness and vegetation variability around SGP site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitochondrial Genomes of the United States Distribution of Gray Fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) Reveal a Major Phylogeographic Break at the Great Plains Suture Zone

We examined phylogeographic structure in gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across the United States to identify the location of secondary contact zone(s) between eastern and western lineages and investigate the possibility of additional cryptic intraspecific divergences. We generated and analyzed complete mitochondrial genome sequence data from 75 samples and partial control region mitochondrial DNA sequences from 378 samples to investigate levels of genetic diversity and structure through population- and individual-based analyses including estimates of divergence (FST and SAMOVA), median joining networks, and phylogenies. We used complete mitochondrial genomes to infer phylogenetic relationships and date divergence times of major lineages of Urocyon in the United States. Despite broad-scale sampling, we did not recover additional major lineages of Urocyon within the United States, but identified a deep east-west split (~0.8 million years) with secondary contact at the Great Plains Suture Zone and confirmed the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis) is nested within U. cinereoargenteus. Genetic diversity declined at northern latitudes in the eastern United States, a pattern concordant with post-glacial recolonization and range expansion. Beyond the east-west divergence, morphologically-based subspecies did not form monophyletic groups, though unique haplotypes were often geographically limited. Gray foxes in the United States displayed a deep, cryptic divergence suggesting taxonomic revision is needed. Secondary contact at a common phylogeographic break, the Great Plains Suture Zone, where environmental variables show a sharp cline, suggests ongoing evolutionary processes may reinforce this divergence. Follow-up study with nuclear markers should investigate whether hybridization is occurring along the suture zone and characterize contemporary population structure to help identify conservation units. Comparative work on other wide-ranging carnivores in the region should test whether similar evolutionary patterns and processes are occurring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗

Analysis of incentive policies for phosphorus recovery at livestock facilities in the Great Lakes area

Livestock operations have been highly intensified over the last decades, resulting in the advent of large concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Intensification decreases production costs but also leads to substantial environmental impacts. Specifically, nutrient runoff from livestock waste results in eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia. The implementation of nutrient recovery systems in CAFOs can abate nutrient releases and negative ecosystem responses, although they might negatively affect the economic performance of CAFOs. We design and analyze potential incentive policies for the deployment of phosphorus recovery technologies at CAFOs considering the geospatial vulnerability to nutrient pollution. The case study demonstration consists of 2217 CAFOs in the U.S. Great Lakes area. The results reveal that phosphorus recovery is more economically viable in the largest CAFOs due to economies of scale, although they also represent the largest eutrophication threats. For small and medium-scale CAFOs, phosphorus credits progressively improve the profitability of nutrient management systems. The integration of biogas production does not improve the economic performance of phosphorus recovery systems at most of CAFOs, as they lack enough size to be cost-effective. Furthermore, phosphorus recovery proves to be economically beneficial by comparing the net costs of nutrient management systems with the negative economic impact derived from phosphorus releases. The incentives necessary for avoiding up to 20.7.10 3 ton/year phosphorus releases and achieve economic neutrality in the Great Lakes area are estimated at $223 million/year. Additionally, the fair distribution of limited incentives is studied using a Nash allocation scheme, determining the break-even point for allocating monetary resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Midlatitude Ozone Depletion and Air Quality Impacts from Industrial Halogen Emissions in the Great Salt Lake Basin

We report aircraft observations of extreme levels of HCl and the dihalogens Cl 2 , Br 2 , and BrCl in an industrial plume near the Great Salt Lake, Utah. Complete depletion of O 3 was observed concurrently with halogen enhancements as a direct result of photochemically produced halogen radicals. Observed fluxes for Cl 2 , HCl, and NO x agreed with facility-reported emissions inventories. Bromine emissions are not required to be reported in the inventory, but are estimated as 173 Mg year –1 Br 2 and 949 Mg year –1 BrCl, representing a major uncounted oxidant source. A zero-dimensional photochemical box model reproduced the observed O 3 depletions and demonstrated that bromine radical cycling was principally responsible for the rapid O 3 depletion. Inclusion of observed halogen emissions in both the box model and a 3D chemical model showed significant increases in oxidants and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in the populated regions of the Great Salt Lake Basin, where winter PM 2.5 is among the most severe air quality issues in the U.S. The model shows regional PM 2.5 increases of 10%–25% attributable to this single industrial halogen source, demonstrating the impact of underreported industrial bromine emissions on oxidation sources and air quality within a major urban area of the western U.S.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crucial roles of eastward propagating environments in the summer MCS initiation over the U.S. Great Plains

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently occur over the U.S. Great Plains during summer. An analysis using self-organizing map is conducted to identify four types of summer MCS initiation environments during 2004-2017. The first two types feature favorable large-scale environments at both upper and low levels, while Type-3 has favorable lower-level and surface conditions but unfavorable upper-level circulation, and Type-4 features the most unfavorable large-scale environments for MCS initiation. Despite the unfavorable large-scale environment, the convection-centered environments in Type-4 are favorable for MCS initiation and similar to the first two types, suggesting a role of sub-synoptic disturbances as an MCS precursor. All four types of the MCS initiation delineate a clear eastward propagating feature in many fields, such as upper-level potential vorticity/geopotential height, surface pressure and surface equivalent potential temperature, upstream up to 25°-longitude west of and ~36 hours before the MCS initiation. The propagating environments and local, non-propagating low-level moisture are found to be important in MCS initiation at the foothill of the Rocky Mountains, but over the central Great Plains, it is the coupling of dynamical and moisture anomalies associated with propagating waves that results in the MCS initiation. By tracking MCSs and mid-tropospheric perturbations (MPs), a type of sub-synoptic disturbances with Rocky Mountains origin, ~30% of MPs is associated with MCS initiation, mostly in Type-4. Although MPs are related to a small fraction of MCS initiation, MCSs that are associated with MPs tend to produce more rainfall in a larger area with a stronger convective intensity, suggesting MPs to be a source of intense MCSs in summer.

Song, Fengfei↗

Moisture Sources of Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region: Climatology and Recent Changes

Abstract Given the critical role of precipitation on hydroclimate, we quantified the contributions of moisture source regions to precipitation in the Great Lakes Region (GLR) using multiple reanalysis data sets. Results show that the Great Plains (GPs) and the GLR itself are the primary sources of moisture. The moisture sources for the double peaks in the GLR precipitation that occur in June and September are identified, which is caused by a shift in the peak timing of moisture contribution from the GLR and GPs. In particular, moisture from the GPs contributes more to the heavy precipitation, while moisture from the GLR contributes more to the light precipitation. We also found a statistically significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trend in the moisture contribution from the mid‐Pacific, caused by an intensified zonal moisture transport from the mid‐Pacific through changes in atmospheric circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enrichment of Phosphates, Lead, and Mixed Soil–Organic Particles in INPs at the Southern Great Plains Site

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are rare particles that initiate primary ice formation, a critical step required for subsequent important cloud microphysical processes that ultimately govern cloud phase and cloud radiative properties. Laboratory studies have found that organic-rich dusts, such as those found in soils, are more efficient INPs compared to mineral dust. However, the atmospheric relevance of these organic-rich dusts are not well understood, particularly in regions with significant agricultural activity. The Agricultural Ice nuclei at the Southern Great Plains field campaign (AGINSGP) was conducted in rural Oklahoma to investigate how soil dusts contribute to INP populations in the Great Plains. We present chemical characterization of ambient and ice crystal residual particles from a single day of sampling, using single particle mass spectrometry (SPMS) and scanning microscopy. Ambient particles were primarily carbonaceous or secondary aerosol, while the fraction of dust particles was higher in the residual particles. We also observed an unusual particle type consisting of a carbonaceous core mixed with dust fragments on the surface, which was found in higher proportion in residuals. Dust particles measured during residual sampling contained greater proportions of phosphate $(^{63}\text{PO}^-_2$ and $^{79}\text{PO}^-_3)$ and lead ( 206 Pb + ). Strong sulfate signals were not seen in the residual dust particles measured by the SPMS, while nitrate was slightly depleted relative to ambient dust. This study shows that organic-rich soils may be important contributors to the ambient INP population in agricultural regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California

Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.

Geology↗

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Hailstone Temporal Variability and Contributing Factors over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP) states from 2004 to 2016 using two hail datasets: hail reports from the Storm Prediction Center and the newly developed radar-retrieved maximum expected size of hail (MESH). It is found that severe and significant severe hail occurrences have a considerable year-to-year temporal variability in the SGP region. The interannual variabilities have a strong correspondence with sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is no outlier. The year 2016 is identified as an outlier for the correlations with both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and aerosol loading. The correlations with ENSO and aerosol loading are not statistically robust to inclusion of the outlier 2016. Statistical analysis without the outlier 2016 shows that 1) aerosols that may be mainly from northern Mexico have the largest correlation with hail interannual variability among the three factors and 2) meteorological covariation does not significantly contribute to the high correlation. These analyses warrant further investigations of aerosol impacts on hail occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial and temporal trends and variabilities of hailstones in the United States Northern Great Plains and their possible attributions

Following on our study of hail for the Southern Great Plains (SGP), we investigated the spatial and temporal hail trends and variabilities for the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and the contributing factors for summer seasons (June–August) over 2004–2016 using two independent hail datasets. Both severe hail (1 < diameter = 2 inches) and significant severe hail (diameter > 2 inches) were examined and similar results were obtained. The hailstones in the NGP demonstrate a large interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend over 2004–2016. Spatially, the positive trend is mainly located in the western part of South Dakota and North Dakota. We find the three major dynamical factors that most likely contribute to the hail interannual variability in the NGP are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and low-level jet (LLJ). With a thermodynamical variable integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that is strongly controlled by LLJ, the four factors can explain 76% of the hail interannual variability from the hail reports based on the multivariate linear regression. Hail occurrences are 73% higher during the cold phase of ENSO (La Nin~a) than the warm phase of ENSO (El Nin~o). When the NASH has a larger northwestward expansion or stronger intensity, more hail occurs over the NGP, because the increases of latitudinal gradient of pressure leads to a stronger LLJ. Interestingly, the important factors impacting hail interannual variability over the NGP are quite different from those for the SGP, except ENSO.

Jeong, Jong-Hoon↗

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

In the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m–2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg –2 , 59.9 W m –2 , 52.4 W m –2 , 240 m, and 4 m s –1 , respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Further, jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnosing Near-Surface Model Errors with Candidate Physics Parameterization Schemes for the Multiphysics Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Ensemble during Winter over the Northeastern United States and Southern Great Plains

Abstract During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K -profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-ARM ARM Southern Great Plains site- Lamont

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ARM ARM Southern Great Plains site- Lamont. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ARM ARM Southern Great Plains site- Lamont produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Central facility tower crop field (winter wheat, corn, soy, alfalfa). The site also has continuous measurements of precise mixing ratios of CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, and isotopic ratio of 13CO2. In addition to 4 m system, there are sonic anemometers at 25 m and 60 m.

Biraud, Sebastien↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-ARb ARM Southern Great Plains burn site- Lamont

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ARb ARM Southern Great Plains burn site- Lamont. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ARb ARM Southern Great Plains burn site- Lamont produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The ARM SGP Burn site is located in the native tallgrass prairies of the USDA Grazinglands Research Laboratory near El Reno, OK. One of two adjacent 35 ha plots, the US-ARb plot was burned on 2005/03/08. The second plot, US-ARc, was left unburned as the control for experimental purposes. Aside from 2005, the region evaded burning activities for at least 15 years. Current disturbances consist of only light grazing activities.

Torn, Margaret↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-ARc ARM Southern Great Plains control site- Lamont

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ARc ARM Southern Great Plains control site- Lamont. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ARc ARM Southern Great Plains control site- Lamont produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The ARM SGP Control site is located in the native tallgrass prairies of the USDA Grazinglands Research Laboratory near El Reno, OK. One of two adjacent 35 ha plots with identical towers, measurements at the US-ARc unburned plot are used as the experimental control. The second plot, US-Arb, was burned on 2005/03/08. Measurement comparisons between the control and burn plot are used to address questions regarding the effects of burning activities on carbon fluxes. The region evaded burning activities for at least 15 years. Current disturbances consist of only light grazing activities.

Torn, Margaret↗