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At least 55 records · Page 3

Progress and plans of a remote sensing program for the International Field Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL)

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 coverage of the 32,000 square mile Lake Ontario Basin is being used to study short term and seasonal changes which affect many aspects of water problems in the Great Lakes. As part of the International Field Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL), a coordinated, synoptic study of the Lake Ontario Basin, processed ERTS-1 imagery will contribute to the data base of synchronized observations being made by investigators from many U.S. and Canadian government agencies and universities. The first set of ERTS data has been received and will be processed shortly for parameters of hydrological and limnological significance such as land use, terrain features, and water quality. When complete, nine ERTS-1 frames recorded during a substantially clear period will provide coverage of the entire Basin. Seven frames show all but a small portion of the southern and eastern end of the Basin. Many drainage basin characteristics are clearly identifiable on the imagery.

Polcyn, F. C.↗

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ERTS-1 views the Great Lakes

The meteorological content of ERTS images, particularly mesoscale effects of the Great Lakes and air pollution dispersion is summarized. Summertime lake breeze frontal clouds and various winter lake-effect convection patterns and snow squalls are revealed in great detail. A clear-cut spiral vortex over southern Lake Michigan is related to a record early snow storm in the Chicago area. Marked cloud changes induced by orographic and frictional effects on Lake Michigan's lee shore snow squalls are seen. The most important finding, however, is a clear-cut example of alterations in cumulus convection by anthropogenic condensation and/or ice nuclei from northern Indiana steel mills during a snow squall situation. Jet aircraft condensation trails are also found with surprising frequency.

Lyons, W. A.↗

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗

Analysis of incentive policies for phosphorus recovery at livestock facilities in the Great Lakes area

Livestock operations have been highly intensified over the last decades, resulting in the advent of large concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Intensification decreases production costs but also leads to substantial environmental impacts. Specifically, nutrient runoff from livestock waste results in eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia. The implementation of nutrient recovery systems in CAFOs can abate nutrient releases and negative ecosystem responses, although they might negatively affect the economic performance of CAFOs. We design and analyze potential incentive policies for the deployment of phosphorus recovery technologies at CAFOs considering the geospatial vulnerability to nutrient pollution. The case study demonstration consists of 2217 CAFOs in the U.S. Great Lakes area. The results reveal that phosphorus recovery is more economically viable in the largest CAFOs due to economies of scale, although they also represent the largest eutrophication threats. For small and medium-scale CAFOs, phosphorus credits progressively improve the profitability of nutrient management systems. The integration of biogas production does not improve the economic performance of phosphorus recovery systems at most of CAFOs, as they lack enough size to be cost-effective. Furthermore, phosphorus recovery proves to be economically beneficial by comparing the net costs of nutrient management systems with the negative economic impact derived from phosphorus releases. The incentives necessary for avoiding up to 20.7.10 3 ton/year phosphorus releases and achieve economic neutrality in the Great Lakes area are estimated at $223 million/year. Additionally, the fair distribution of limited incentives is studied using a Nash allocation scheme, determining the break-even point for allocating monetary resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Farm Practice Typologies as a Strategy for Management-Relevant Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in the Great Lakes Region (Version 1) [Dataset]

Dataset overview and development This dataset provides spatially explicit agricultural land-use and land-management typologies developed for the Great Lakes Region (GLR) at the farm-parcel level. The typologies were designed to characterize not only the land-use and land-cover (LULC) associated with individual agricultural farm parcels, but also the land-management practices (LMPs), including irrigation, tile drainage, and conservation easements, occurring within those parcels and how these characteristics change through time. The dataset contains four related typology products: Annual integrated typology – describes the combined LULC and land-management characteristics for each farm parcel for individual years. LULC transition typology – describes the temporal pattern of LULC change for each farm parcel across the study period (2008-2023). LMP trend typology – describes the temporal pattern in the occurrence of LMPs for each farm parcel across the study period. Multi-year integrated typology – combines the LULC transition typology and LMP trend typology to provide an integrated characterization of long-term land-use and management patterns. Purpose of the dataset The purpose of these products is to provide a management-relevant integrated and consistent framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal organization of agricultural landscapes across the GLR. The resulting typologies can: support landscape-scale environmental and land-use analysis; provide spatial information relevant to land-management strategies, conservation planning, policy development, and program evaluation; characterize spatial patterns of agricultural land use and management; examine changes in agricultural landscapes through time; and identify persistent, transitional, and changing agricultural systems. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details.

Agriculture↗

Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario

To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coast Guard/NOAA/NASA Great Lakes Project Icewarn

The operational feasibility of using remote sensing to provide all weather ice formation for Great Lakes winter navigation is explored. A combination airborne pulsed radar system to measure actual ice thickness, a satellite data link system, and a hand drawn interpretive ice chart proved valuable for extending winter navigation through the icepack.

Brennan, T. D.↗

Great Lakes Hyperspectral Water Quality Instrument Suite for Airborne Monitoring of Algal Blooms

NASA Glenn Research Center and NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab are collaborating to utilize an airborne hyperspectral imaging sensor suite to monitor Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the western basin of Lake Erie. The HABs are very dynamic events as they form, spread and then disappear within a 4 to 8 week time period in late summer. They are a concern for human health, fish and wildlife because they can contain blue green toxic algae. Because of this toxicity there is a need for the blooms to be continually monitored. This situation is well suited for aircraft based monitoring because the blooms are a very dynamic event and they can spread over a large area. High resolution satellite data is not suitable by itself because it will not give the temporal resolution due to the infrequent overpasses of the quickly changing blooms. A custom designed hyperspectral imager and a point spectrometer mounted on aT 34 aircraft have been used to obtain data on an algal bloom that formed in the western basin of Lake Erie during September 2006. The sensor suite and operations will be described and preliminary hyperspectral data of this event will be presented

Lekki, John↗

Moisture Sources of Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region: Climatology and Recent Changes

Abstract Given the critical role of precipitation on hydroclimate, we quantified the contributions of moisture source regions to precipitation in the Great Lakes Region (GLR) using multiple reanalysis data sets. Results show that the Great Plains (GPs) and the GLR itself are the primary sources of moisture. The moisture sources for the double peaks in the GLR precipitation that occur in June and September are identified, which is caused by a shift in the peak timing of moisture contribution from the GLR and GPs. In particular, moisture from the GPs contributes more to the heavy precipitation, while moisture from the GLR contributes more to the light precipitation. We also found a statistically significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trend in the moisture contribution from the mid‐Pacific, caused by an intensified zonal moisture transport from the mid‐Pacific through changes in atmospheric circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗