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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implications of an improved water equation of state for water-rich planets

Water (H 2 O), in all forms, is an important constituent in planetary bodies, controlling habitability and influencing geological activity. Under conditions found in the interior of many planets, as the pressure increases, the H-bonds in water gradually weaken and are replaced by ionic bonds. Recent experimental measurements of the water equation of state (EOS) showed both a new phase of H-bonded water ice, ice-VIIt, and a relatively low transition pressure just above 30 GPa to ionic bonded ice-X, which has a bulk modulus 2.5 times larger. The higher bulk modulus of ice-X produces larger planets for a given mass, thereby either reducing the atmospheric contribution to the volume of many exoplanets or limiting their water content. We investigate the impact of the new EOS measurements on the planetary mass–radius relation and interior structure for water-rich planets. We find that the change in the planet mass–radius relation caused by the systematic differences between previous and new experimental EOS measurements is comparable to the observational uncertainties in some planet sizes – an issue that will become more important as observations continue to improve.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cooperative diffusion in body-centered cubic iron in Earth and super-Earths’ inner core conditions

Abstract The physical chemistry of iron at the inner-core conditions is key to understanding the evolution and habitability of Earth and super-Earth planets. Based on full first-principles simulations, we report cooperative diffusion along the longitudinally fast ⟨ 111 ⟩ directions of body-centered cubic (bcc) iron in temperature ranges of up to 2000–4000 K below melting and pressures of ∼300–4000 GPa. The diffusion is due to the low energy barrier in the corresponding direction and is accompanied by mechanical and dynamical stability, as well as strong elastic anisotropy of bcc iron. These findings provide a possible explanation for seismological signatures of the Earth’s inner core, particularly the positive correlation between P wave velocity and attenuation. The diffusion can also change the detailed mechanism of core convection by increasing the diffusivity and electrical conductivity and lowering the viscosity. The results need to be considered in future geophysical and planetary models and should motivate future studies of materials under extreme conditions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Dark Planets of the WASP-47 Planetary System

Exoplanet discoveries have demonstrated a vast range of planetary system architectures. The demographic of compact planetary systems are especially interesting from the perspective of planetary formation and the evolution of orbital dynamics. Another interesting demographic is that of giant planets in eccentric orbits, since these planets have likely had a dynamical history involving planet–planet scattering events. The WASP-47 system is particularly fascinating since it combines these two demographics, having both compact planetary orbits and a giant planet on an eccentric orbit within the system the habitable zone. Here we provide an analysis of the WASP-47 system from the perspective of atmospheric detection and characterization. We discuss the system architecture and the potential for additional long-period planets. We simulate expected phase variations as a function of planet orbital phase for the system due to the combined effect of the planets. We present an analysis of precision photometry of WASP-47 from the K2 mission, phased on each of the planets. The analysis rules out the detection of phase signatures for the two inner-most planets, enabling constraints upon their albedos and atmospheric properties. Our study concludes that WASP-47b is an example of a “dark” planet with a tentative geometric albedo of 0.016 and a 1σ upper limit of 0.17. The WASP-47e data are consistent with a broad range of albedos, but also show early evidence of having a relatively low albedo. The growing number of dark, short-period giant planets provide the framework of an ideal sample for studying low albedo dependence on atmospheric composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exosphere Modeling of Proxima b: A Case Study of Photochemical Escape with a Venus-like Atmosphere

Exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs within habitable zones are exposed to stellar environments more extreme than that terrestrial planets experience in our solar system, which can significantly impact the atmospheres of the exoplanets and affect their habitability and sustainability. This study provides the first prediction of hot oxygen corona structure and the associated photochemical loss from a 1 bar CO 2 -dominated atmosphere of a Venus-like rocky exoplanet, where dissociative recombination of O 2 + ions is assumed to be the major source reaction for the escape of neutral O atoms and formation of the hot O corona (or exospheres) as on Mars and Venus. We employ a 3D Monte Carlo code to simulate the exosphere of Proxima Centauri b (PCb) based on the ionosphere simulated by a 3D magnetohydrodynamic model. Our simulation results show that variability of the stellar wind dynamic pressure over one orbital period of PCb does not affect the overall spatial structure of the hot O corona but contributes to the change in the global hot O escape rate that varies by an order of magnitude. The escape increases dramatically when the planet possesses its intrinsic magnetic fields as the ionosphere becomes more extended with the presence of a global magnetic field. Furthermore, the extended hot O corona may lead to a more extended H exosphere through collisions between thermal H and hot O, which exemplifies the importance of considering nonthermal populations in exospheres to interpret future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hubble WFC3 Spectroscopy of the Habitable-zone Super-Earth LHS 1140 b

Atmospheric characterization of temperate, rocky planets is the holy grail of exoplanet studies. These worlds are at the limits of our capabilities with current instrumentation in transmission spectroscopy and challenge our state-of-the-art statistical techniques. Here we present the transmission spectrum of the temperate super-Earth LHS 1140b using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) G141 grism data of this habitable-zone (T {sub eq} = 235 K) super-Earth (R = 1.7 R {sub ⊕}) shows tentative evidence of water. However, the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus the significance of the detection, is low and stellar contamination models can cause modulation over the spectral band probed. We attempt to correct for contamination using these models and find that, while many still lead to evidence for water, some could provide reasonable fits to the data without the need for molecular absorption although most of these cause features in the visible ground-based data which are nonphysical. Future observations with the James Webb Space Telescope would be capable of confirming, or refuting, this atmospheric detection.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Gaia–Kepler Stellar Properties Catalog. II. Planet Radius Demographics as a Function of Stellar Mass and Age

Studies of exoplanet demographics require large samples and precise constraints on exoplanet host stars. Using the homogeneous Kepler stellar properties derived using the Gaia Data Release 2 by Berger et al., we recompute Kepler planet radii and incident fluxes and investigate their distributions with stellar mass and age. We measure the stellar mass dependence of the planet radius valley to be dlogR{sub p}/dlogM{sub ⋆} = 0.26{sub −0.16}{sup +0.21}, consistent with the slope predicted by a planet mass dependence on stellar mass (0.24–0.35) and core-powered mass loss (0.33). We also find the first evidence of a stellar age dependence of the planet populations straddling the radius valley. Specifically, we determine that the fraction of super-Earths (1–1.8 R{sub ⊕}) to sub-Neptunes (1.8–3.5 R{sub ⊕}) increases from 0.61 ± 0.09 at young ages (<1 Gyr) to 1.00 ± 0.10 at old ages (>1 Gyr), consistent with the prediction by core-powered mass loss that the mechanism shaping the radius valley operates over Gyr timescales. Additionally, we find a tentative decrease in the radii of relatively cool (F {sub p} < 150 F{sub ⊕}) sub-Neptunes over Gyr timescales, which suggests that these planets may possess H/He envelopes instead of higher mean molecular weight atmospheres. We confirm the existence of planets within the hot sub-Neptunian “desert” (2.2 R {sub ⊕} < R {sub p} < 3.8 R{sub ⊕}, F {sub p} > 650 F{sub ⊕}) and show that these planets are preferentially orbiting more evolved stars compared to other planets at similar incident fluxes. In addition, we identify candidates for cool (F {sub p} < 20 F{sub ⊕}) inflated Jupiters, present a revised list of habitable zone candidates, and find that the ages of single and multiple transiting planet systems are statistically indistinguishable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Earth as an Exoplanet. I. Time Variable Thermal Emission Using Spatially Resolved Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer Data

Among the more than 4000 exoplanets known today, some terrestrial planets have been detected in the so-called habitable zone of their host stars and their number is expected to increase in the near future, energizing a drive to understand and interpret the eagerly awaited wealth of data to identify signs of life beyond our solar system. So far, Earth remains the best and only example of a habitable (and inhabited) world. Although, it seems extremely unlikely that any other exoplanets will be true Earth twins, it is important to explore and understand the full range of spectral signatures and variability of Earth in order to inform the design of future instruments and missions, and understand their diagnostic power as well as potential limitations. In this work we use Earth observation data collected by the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. The complete data set comprises 15 years of thermal emission observations in the 3.66–14.40 μm range for five different locations on Earth (Amazon Rainforest, Antarctica, Arctic, Indian Ocean, and the Sahara Desert). We then determine flux levels and variations as a function of wavelength and surface type (i.e., climate zone and surface thermal properties) and investigate whether periodic signals indicating Earth’s tilted rotation axis can be detected. Our findings suggest that (1) viewing geometry plays an important role when thermal emission data is analyzed as Earth’s spectrum varies by a factor of three and more depending on the dominant surface type underneath; (2) typically strong absorption bands from CO 2 (15 μm) and O 3 (9.65 μm) are significantly less pronounced and partially absent in data from the polar regions implying that estimating correct abundance levels for these molecules might be challenging in these cases; and (3) the time-resolved thermal emission spectrum encodes information about seasons/planetary obliquity, but the significance depends on the viewing geometry and spectral band considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ExoReL{sup R}: A Bayesian Inverse Retrieval Framework for Exoplanetary Reflected Light Spectra

The high-contrast imaging technique is meant to provide insight into those planets orbiting several astronomical units from their host star. Space missions such as Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope, Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission, and Large Ultra-Violet/Optical/InfraRed Surveyor will measure reflected light spectra of cold gaseous and rocky planets. To interpret these observations, we introduce ExoReL{sup R} (Exoplanetary Reflected Light Retrieval), a novel Bayesian retrieval framework to retrieve cloud properties and atmospheric structures from exoplanetary reflected light spectra. As a unique feature, it assumes a vertically nonuniform volume mixing ratio (VMR) profile of water and ammonia, and uses it to construct cloud densities. In this way, clouds and molecular mixture ratios are consistent. We apply ExoReL{sup R} on three test cases: two exoplanets (υ And e and 47 Uma b) and Jupiter. We show that we are able to retrieve the concentration of methane in the atmosphere, and estimate the position of clouds when the signal-to-noise ratio of the spectrum is higher than 15, in line with previous works. Moreover, we described the ability of our model to give a chemical identity to clouds, and we discussed whether or not we can observe this difference in the planetary reflection spectrum. Finally, we demonstrate how it could be possible to retrieve molecular concentrations (water and ammonia in this work) below the clouds by linking the nonuniform VMR profile to the cloud presence. This will help to constrain the concentration of water and ammonia unseen in direct measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implications of the iron oxide phase transition on the interiors of rocky exoplanets

The discovery of an extraordinary number of extrasolar planets, characterized by an unexpected variety of sizes, masses and orbits, challenges our understanding of the formation and evolution of the planets in the Solar System and the perception of the Earth as the prototypical habitable world. Many exoplanets appear to be rocky and yet more massive than the Earth, with expected pressures and temperatures of hundreds of gigapascal and thousands of Kelvin in their deep interiors. At these conditions, the properties of bridgmanite and ferropericlase, expected to dominate their mantles, are largely unconstrained, limiting our knowledge of their interior structure. Here we used nano-second X-ray diffraction and dynamic compression to experimentally investigate the atomic structure and density of iron oxide (FeO), one of the end-members of the (Mg,Fe)O ferropericlase solid solution, up to 700 GPa, a pressure exceeding the core–mantle boundary of a 5 Earth masses planet. Our data document the stability of the high-pressure cesium-chloride B2 structure above 300 GPa, well below the pressure required for magnesium oxide (MgO) to adopt the same phase. These observations, complemented by the calculation of the binary MgO–FeO phase diagram, reveal complex stratification and rheology inside large terrestrial exoplanets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simultaneous Optical Transmission Spectroscopy of a Terrestrial, Habitable-zone Exoplanet with Two Ground-based Multiobject Spectrographs

Investigating the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets is key to performing comparative planetology between these worlds and the terrestrial planets that reside in the inner solar system. Terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres exhibit weak signals, and attempting to detect them pushes at the boundaries of what is possible for current instrumentation. We focus on the habitable-zone terrestrial exoplanet LHS 1140b. Given its 25-day orbital period and 2 hr transit duration, capturing transits of LHS 1140b is challenging. We observed two transits of this object, approximately 1 yr apart, which yielded four data sets thanks to our simultaneous use of the IMACS and LDSS3C multiobject spectrographs mounted on the twin Magellan telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory. We present a jointly fit white light curve, as well as jointly fit 20 nm wavelength-binned light curves from which we construct a transmission spectrum. Binning the joint white light-curve residuals to 3-minute time bins gives an rms of 145 ppm; binning down to 10-minute time bins gives an rms of 77 ppm. Our median uncertainty in R{sub p}{sup 2}/R{sub s}{sup 2} in the 20 nm wavelength bins is 260 ppm, and we achieve an average precision of 1.3× the photon noise when fitting the wavelength-binned light curves with a Gaussian process regression. Our precision on R{sub p}{sup 2}/R{sub s}{sup 2} is a factor of four larger than the feature amplitudes of a clear, hydrogen-dominated atmosphere, meaning that we are not able to test realistic models of LHS 1140b’s atmosphere. The techniques and caveats presented here are applicable to the growing sample of terrestrial worlds in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite era, as well as to the upcoming generation of ground-based giant segmented mirror telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the destruction rate of K 40 in stellar nucleosynthesis through the study of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction

Background: We present that K 40 plays a significant role in the radiogenic heating of Earth-like exoplanets, which can affect the development of a habitable environment on their surfaces. The initial amount of K 40 in the interior of these planets depends on the composition of the interstellar clouds from which they formed. Within this context, nuclear reactions that regulate the production of K 40 during stellar evolution can play a critical role. Purpose: In this study, we constrain for the first time the astrophysical reaction rate of K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 , which is responsible for the destruction of K 40 during stellar nucleosynthesis. We provide to the nuclear physics community high-resolution data on the cross section and angular distribution of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction. These are important to various applications involving Ar 40 . The associated reaction rate of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 process addresses a reaction rate gap in the Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics REACLIB database in the region of intermediate-mass isotopes. Methods: We performed differential cross-section measurements on the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction, for six energies in the center-of-mass system between 3.2 and 4.0 MeV and various angles between 0 ° and 135 ° . The experiment took place at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory at Ohio University using the beam swinger target location and a standard neutron time-of-flight technique. We extracted total and partial cross sections by integrating the double differential cross sections we measured. Results: The total and partial cross sections varied with energy due to the contribution from isobaric analog states and Ericson type fluctuations. The energy-averaged neutron angular distributions were symmetrical relative to 90 ° . Based on the experimental data, local transmission coefficients were extracted and were used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates of Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 and K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reactions. The new rates were found to vary significantly from the theoretical rates in the REACLIB library. We implemented the new rates in network calculations to study nucleosynthesis via the slow neutron capture process, and we found that the produced abundance of K 40 is reduced by up to 10% compared to calculations with the library rates. At the same time, the above result removes a significant portion of the previous theoretical uncertainty on the K 40 yields from stellar evolution calculations. Conclusions: Our results support a destruction rate of K 40 in massive stars via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction that is larger compared to previous estimates. The rate of K 40 destruction via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction now has a dramatically reduced uncertainty based on our measurement. Lastly, this result directly affects the predicted stellar yields of K 40 from nucleosynthesis, which is a critical input parameter for the galactic chemical evolution models that are currently employed for the study of significant properties of exoplanets.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-resolution Spectra of Earth-like Planets Orbiting Red Giant Host Stars

In the near future we will have ground- and space-based telescopes that are designed to observe and characterize Earth-like planets. While attention is focused on exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars, more than 150 exoplanets have already been detected orbiting red giants, opening the intriguing question of what rocky worlds orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of red giants would be like and how to characterize them. We present a high-resolution spectral database of reflection and emission spectra for nominal Earth-like planets orbiting in the red giant HZ from the visible to infrared (0.4–20 μm) for planets orbiting at the Earth-equivalent distance. We also show the change of such planetary spectra through the evolution of their red giant hosts. While the luminosity of the host increases the contrast ratio between star and planet, the increased orbital distance of the HZ for red giant hosts relaxes the light suppression requirements close to the star, which could make such planets interesting targets to characterize and search for signs of life, if new coronagraph designs with higher suppression at larger orbital separations could be developed. We assess the feasibility of characterizing atmospheric features including biosignatures for such planets with the proposed mission concept Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetized Winds of M-type Stars and Star–Planet Magnetic Interactions: Uncertainties and Modeling Strategy

M-type stars are the most common stars in the Universe. They are ideal hosts for the search of exoplanets in the habitable zone (HZ), as their small size and low temperature make the HZ much closer-in than their solar twins. Harboring very deep convective layers, they also usually exhibit very intense magnetic fields. Understanding their environment, in particular their coronal and wind properties, is thus very important, as they might be very different from what is observed in the solar system. The mass-loss rate of M-type stars is poorly known observationally, and recent attempts to estimate it for some of them (e.g., TRAPPIST-1 and Proxima Centauri) can vary by an order of magnitude. In this work, we revisit the stellar wind properties of M dwarfs in the light of the latest estimates of $\dot{M}$ through Lyα absorption at the astropause and slingshot prominences. We outline a modeling strategy to estimate the mass-loss rate, radiative loss, and wind speed, with uncertainties, based on an Alfvén-wave-driven stellar wind model. We find that it is very likely that several TRAPPIST-1 planets lie within the Alfvén surface, which implies that these planets experience star–planet magnetic interactions (SPMIs). We also find that SPMIs between Proxima Cen b and its host star could be the reason for recently observed radio emissions.

M stars↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bioverse: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Capabilities of Extremely Large Telescopes to Probe Earth-like O 2 Levels in Nearby Transiting Habitable-zone Exoplanets

Molecular oxygen is a strong indicator of life on Earth and may indicate biological processes on exoplanets too. Recent studies proposed that Earth-like O 2 levels might be detectable on nearby exoplanets using high-resolution spectrographs on future extremely large telescopes (ELTs). However, these studies did not consider constraints like relative velocities, planet occurrence rates, and target observability. We expanded on past studies by creating a homogeneous catalog of 286,391 main-sequence stars within 120 pc using Gaia DR3 and used the Bioverse framework to simulate the likelihood of finding nearby transiting Earth analogs. We also simulated a survey of M dwarfs within 20 pc accounting for η ⊕ estimates, transit probabilities, relative velocities, and target observability to determine how long ELTs and theoretical 50–100 m ground-based telescopes need to observe to probe for Earth-like O 2 levels with an R = 100,000 spectrograph. This would only be possible within 50 yr for up to ~21% of nearby M-dwarf systems if a suitable transiting habitable-zone Earth analog was discovered, assuming signals from every observable partial transit from each ELT can be combined. If so, Earth-like O 2 levels could be detectable on TRAPPIST-1 d–g within 16–55 yr, respectively, and about half that time with an R = 500,000 spectrograph. These results have important implications for whether ELTs can survey nearby habitable-zone Earth analogs for O 2 via transmission spectroscopy. Our work provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the ground-based capabilities to search for life beyond the solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-orbital-phase and Multiband Characterization of Exoplanetary Atmospheres with Reflected Light Spectra

Direct imaging of widely separated exoplanets from space will obtain their reflected light spectra and measure atmospheric properties. Previous calculations have shown that a change in the orbital phase would cause a spectral signal, but whether this signal may be used to characterize the atmosphere has not been shown. We simulate starshade-enabled observations of the planet 47 UMa b, using the present most realistic simulator Starshade Imaging Simulation Toolkit for Exoplanet Reconnaissance to estimate the uncertainties due to residual starlight, solar glint, and exozodiacal light. We then use the Bayesian retrieval algorithm ExoReL{sup R} to determine the constraints on the atmospheric properties from observations using a Roman- or Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx)-like telescope, comparing the strategies to observe at multiple orbital phases or in multiple wavelength bands. With a ∼20% bandwidth in 600–800 nm on a Roman-like telescope, the retrieval finds a degenerate scenario with a lower gas abundance and a deeper or absent cloud than the truth. Repeating the observation at a different orbital phase or at a second 20% wavelength band in 800–1000 nm, with the same integration time and thus degraded signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), would effectively eliminate this degenerate solution. Single observation with a HabEx-like telescope would yield high-precision constraints on the gas abundances and cloud properties, without the degenerate scenario. These results are also generally applicable to high-contrast spectroscopy with a coronagraph with a similar wavelength coverage and S/N, and can help design the wavelength bandwidth and the observation plan of exoplanet direct-imaging experiments in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Earth as a Proxy Exoplanet: Deconstructing and Reconstructing Spectrophotometric Light Curves

Point-source spectrophotometric (single-point) light curves of Earth-like planets contain a surprising amount of information about the spatial features of those worlds. Spatially resolving these light curves is important for assessing time-varying surface features and the existence of an atmosphere, which in turn is critical to life on Earth and significant for determining habitability on exoplanets. Given that Earth is the only celestial body confirmed to harbor life, treating it as a proxy exoplanet by analyzing time-resolved spectral images provides a benchmark in the search for habitable exoplanets. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) provides such an opportunity, with observations of ∼5000 full-disk sunlit Earth images each year at 10 wavelengths with high temporal frequency. We disk-integrate these spectral images to create single-point light curves and decompose them into principal components (PCs). Using machine-learning techniques to relate the PCs to six preselected spatial features, we find that the first and fourth PCs of the single-point light curves, contributing ∼83.23% of the light-curve variability, contain information about low and high clouds, respectively. Surface information relevant to the contrast between land and ocean reflectance is contained in the second PC, while individual land subtypes are not easily distinguishable (<0.1% total light-curve variation). We build an Earth model by systematically altering the spatial features to derive causal relationships to the PCs. This model can serve as a baseline for analyzing Earth-like exoplanets and guide wavelength selection and sampling strategies for future observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection Limits of Low-mass, Long-period Exoplanets Using Gaussian Processes Applied to HARPS-N Solar Radial Velocities

Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s{sup −1}. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass (∼0.5 m s{sup −1}) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus (∼0.1 m s{sup −1}) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗