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The code enables to perform Bayesian inference in an efficient manner through the use of Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs), Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), Neural ODEs, and Symplectic Neural Networks (SympNets) used with state-of-the-art sampling schemes like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and the No-U-Turn-Sampler (NUTS).
A major challenge in many machine learning tasks is that the model expressive power depends on model size. Low-rank tensor methods are an efficient tool for handling the curse of dimensionality in many large-scale machine learning models. The major challenges in training a tensor learning model include how to process the high-volume data, how to determine the tensor rank automatically, and how to estimate the uncertainty of the results. While existing tensor learning focuses on a specific task, this paper proposes a generic Bayesian framework that can be employed to solve a broad class of tensor learning problems such as tensor completion, tensor regression, and tensorized neural networks. We develop a low-rank tensor prior for automatic rank determination in nonlinear problems. Our method is implemented with both stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD). We compare the automatic rank determination and uncertainty quantification of these two solvers. We demonstrate that our proposed method can determine the tensor rank automatically and can quantify the uncertainty of the obtained results. We validate our framework on tensor completion tasks and tensorized neural network training tasks.
We present GIGA-Lens: a gradient-informed, GPU-accelerated Bayesian framework for modeling strong gravitational lensing systems, implemented in TensorFlow and JAX. The three components, optimization using multistart gradient descent, posterior covariance estimation with variational inference, and sampling via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, all take advantage of gradient information through automatic differentiation and massive parallelization on graphics processing units (GPUs). We test our pipeline on a large set of simulated systems and demonstrate in detail its high level of performance. The average time to model a single system on four Nvidia A100 GPUs is 105 s. The robustness, speed, and scalability offered by this framework make it possible to model the large number of strong lenses found in current surveys and present a very promising prospect for the modeling of ${ \mathcal O }({10}^{5})$ lensing systems expected to be discovered in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, Euclid, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.
We present an autodifferentiable spectral modeling of exoplanets and brown dwarfs. This model enables a fully Bayesian inference of the high-dispersion data to fit the ab initio line-by-line spectral computation to the observed spectrum by combining it with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in recent probabilistic programming languages. An open-source code, ExoJAX, developed in this study, was written in Python using the GPU/TPU compatible package for automatic differentiation and accelerated linear algebra, JAX. We validated the model by comparing it with existing opacity calculators and a radiative transfer code and found reasonable agreements for the output. As a demonstration, we analyzed the high-dispersion spectrum of a nearby brown dwarf, Luhman 16 A, and found that a model including water, carbon monoxide, and H 2 /He collision-induced absorption was well fitted to the observed spectrum (R = 10 5 and 2.28-2.30 μm). As a result, we found that T0 = 1295$^{-32}_{+35}$ K at 1 bar and C/O = 0.62 ± 0.03, which is slightly higher than the solar value. This work demonstrates the potential of a full Bayesian analysis of brown dwarfs and exoplanets as observed by high-dispersion spectrographs and also directly imaged exoplanets as observed by high-dispersion coronagraphy.
In this dissertation we apply computational Bayesian methods to three distinct problems. In the first chapter, we address the issue of unrealistic covariance matrices used to estimate collision probabilities. We model covariance matrices with a Bayesian Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, which we fit with Gibbs sampling. In the second chapter, we are interested in determining the sample sizes necessary to achieve a particular interval width and establish non-inferiority in the analysis of prevalences using two fallible tests. To this end, we use a third order asymptotic approximation. In the third chapter, we wish to synthesize evidence across multiple domains in measurements taken longitudinally across time, featuring a substantial amount of structurally missing data, and fit the model with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a simulation to analyze how estimates of a parameter of interest change across sample sizes.
Bayesian-inference-based approaches, in particular the random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, have received much attention recently for X-ray scattering analysis. Hamiltonian MCMC, a state-of-the-art development in the field of MCMC, has become popular in recent years. It utilizes Hamiltonian dynamics for indirect but much more efficient drawings of the model parameters. We described the principle of the Hamiltonian MCMC for inversion problems in X-ray scattering analysis by estimating high-dimensional models for several motivating scenarios in small-angle X-ray scattering, reflectivity, and X-ray fluorescence holography. Hamiltonian MCMC with appropriate preconditioning can deliver superior performance over the random-walk MCMC, and thus can be used as an efficient tool for the statistical analysis of the parameter distributions, as well as model predictions and confidence analysis.
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This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.
Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.
Although the no-u-turn sampler (NUTS) is a widely adopted method for performing Bayesian inference, it requires numerous posterior gradients which can be expensive to compute in practice. Recently, there has been a significant interest in physics-based machine learning of dynamical (or Hamiltonian) systems and Hamiltonian neural networks (HNNs) is a noteworthy architecture. But these types of architectures have not been applied to solve Bayesian inference problems efficiently. We propose the use of HNNs for performing Bayesian inference efficiently without requiring numerous posterior gradients. We introduce latent variable outputs to HNNs (L-HNNs) for improved expressivity and reduced integration errors. We integrate L-HNNs in NUTS and further propose an online error monitoring scheme to prevent sampling degeneracy in regions where L-HNNs may have little training data. We demonstrate L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring consider several complex high-dimensional posterior densities and compare its performance to NUTS.
An accurate treatment of effective core potentials (ECPs) requires care in continuum quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. While most QMC studies have settled on the use of familiar non-local (NL) pseudopotentials with additional localization approximations, these approaches have been shown to result in moderate residual errors for some classes of molecular and solid state applications. Here, we revisit an idea proposed early in the history of QMC ECPs that does not require localization approximations, namely, a differential class of potentials referred to as pseudo-Hamiltonians. We propose to hybridize NL potentials and pseudo-Hamiltonians to reduce residual non-locality of existing potentials. We derive an approach to recast pseudopotentials for 3d elements as hybrid pseudo-Hamiltonians with optimally reduced NL energy. We demonstrate the fidelity of the hybrid potentials by studying atomic ionization potentials of Ti and Fe and the binding properties of TiO and FeO molecules with diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC). We show that localization errors have been reduced relative to potentials with the same NL channels for Sc–Zn by considering the DMC energy change with respect to the choice of approximate localization. While localization error decreases proportionate to the reduced NL energy without a Jastrow, with a Jastrow, the degree of reduction decreases at higher filling of the d-shell. Our results suggest that a subset of existing ECPs may be recast in this hybrid form to reduce the DMC localization error. They also point to the prospect of further reducing this error by generating ECPs within this hybrid form from the start.
Abstract Spinels represent an important class of technologically relevant materials, used in diverse applications ranging from dielectrics, sensors and energy materials. While solid solutions combining two “single spinels” have been explored in a number of past studies, no ordered “double” spinels have been reported. Based on our first principles computations, here we predict the existence of such a double spinel compound MgAlGaO 4 , formed by an equimolar mixing of MgAl 2 O 4 normal and MgGa 2 O 4 inverse spinels. After studying the details of its atomic and electronic structure, we use a cluster expansion based effective Hamiltonian approach with Monte Carlo simulations to study the thermodynamic behavior and cation distribution as a function of temperature. Our simulations provide strong evidence for short-ranged cation order in the double spinel structure, even at significantly elevated temperatures. Finally, an attempt was made to synthesize the predicted double spinel compound. Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometry and X-ray diffraction Rietveld refinements were performed to characterize the single-phase chemical composition and local configurational environments, which showed a favorable agreement with the theoretical predictions. These findings suggest that a much larger number of compounds can potentially be realized within this chemical space, opening new avenues for the design of spinel-structured materials with tailored functionality.
Lie–Trotter–Suzuki decompositions are an efficient way to approximate operator exponentials exp ( t H ) when H is a sum of n (non-commuting) terms which, individually, can be exponentiated easily. They are employed in time-evolution algorithms for tensor network states, digital quantum simulation protocols, path integral methods like quantum Monte Carlo, and splitting methods for symplectic integrators in classical Hamiltonian systems. Here, we provide optimized decompositions up to order t 6 . The leading error term is expanded in nested commutators (Hall bases) and we minimize the 1-norm of the coefficients. For n = 2 terms, several of the optima we find are close to those in McLachlan (1995). Generally, our results substantially improve over unoptimized decompositions by Forest, Ruth, Yoshida, and Suzuki. We explain why these decompositions are sufficient to efficiently simulate any one- or two-dimensional lattice model with finite-range interactions. This follows by solving a partitioning problem for the interaction graph.
Stoquastic Hamiltonians play a role in the computational complexity of the local Hamiltonian problem as well as the study of classical simulability. In particular, stoquastic Hamiltonians can be straightforwardly simulated using Monte Carlo techniques. We address the question of whether two or more Hamiltonians may be made simultaneously stoquastic via a unitary transformation. This question has important implications for the complexity of simulating quantum annealing where quantum advantage is related to the stoquasticity of the Hamiltonians involved in the anneal. We find that for almost all problems no such unitary exists and show that the problem of determining the existence of such a unitary is equivalent to identifying if there is a solution to a system of polynomial (in)equalities in the matrix elements of the initial and transformed Hamiltonians. Solving such a system of equations is NP-hard. We highlight a geometric understanding of this problem in terms of a collection of generalized Bloch vectors.
Here, erythrosiderites with the formula A 2 FeX 5 ∙H 2 O, where A = Rb, K, and (NH 4 ) and X = Cl and Br are intriguing systems that possess various magnetic and electric phases, as well as multiferroic phases in which magnetism and ferroelectricity are coupled. In this report, we study the magnetic phase diagram of erythrosiderites as a function of superexchange interactions and magnetic anisotropies. To this end, we perform classical Monte Carlo simulations on magnetic Hamiltonians that contain five different superexchange interactions with single-ion anisotropies. Our phase diagram contains all magnetic ground states that have been experimentally observed in these materials. We argue that the ground states can be explained by varying the ratio of $\frac{J_4}{J_2}$. For $\frac{J_4}{J_2}$ > 0.95 a cycloidal spins structure is stabilized as observed in (NH 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 ∙H 2 O and otherwise a collinear spin structure is stabilized as observed in (K,Rb) 2 FeCl 5 ∙H 2 O. We also show that the difference in the single-ion anisotropy along a- and c- axes is essential to stabilize the intermediate state observed in (NH) 2 FeCl 5 ∙H 2 O.
Stoquastic Hamiltonians play a role in the computational complexity of the local Hamiltonian problem as well as the study of classical simulability. In particular, stoquastic Hamiltonians can be straightforwardly simulated using Monte Carlo techniques. We address the question of whether two or more Hamiltonians may be made simultaneously stoquastic via a unitary transformation. This question has important implications for the complexity of simulating quantum annealing where quantum advantage is related to the stoquasticity of the Hamiltonians involved in the anneal. We find that for almost all problems no such unitary exists and show that the problem of determining the existence of such a unitary is equivalent to identifying if there is a solution to a system of polynomial (in)equalities in the matrix elements of the initial and transformed Hamiltonians. Furthermore, solving such a system of equations is NP-hard. We highlight a geometric understanding of this problem in terms of a collection of generalized Bloch vectors.
Stoquastic Hamiltonians play a role in the computational complexity of the local Hamiltonian problem as well as the study of classical simulability. In particular, stoquastic Hamiltonians can be straightforwardly simulated using Monte Carlo techniques. We address the question of whether two or more Hamiltonians may be made simultaneously stoquastic via a unitary transformation. This question has important implications for the complexity of simulating quantum annealing where quantum advantage is related to the stoquasticity of the Hamiltonians involved in the anneal. We find that for almost all problems no such unitary exists and show that the problem of determining the existence of such a unitary is equivalent to identifying if there is a solution to a system of polynomial (in)equalities in the matrix elements of the initial and transformed Hamiltonians. Solving such a system of equations is NP-hard. We highlight a geometric understanding of this problem in terms of a collection of generalized Bloch vectors.
Having lead-free systems with excellent piezoelectric responses is crucial to the development of environmentally friendly electromechanical applications. In this work, we build an effective Hamiltonian model to explore the promising (K x Na 1–x )NbO 3 system, whose rich phase diagram near x = 50% remains poorly understood meanwhile exhibiting a colossal effective piezoelectric response. Thanks to the numerical implementation of this effective Hamiltonian scheme into a Monte Carlo Metropolis algorithm, we reveal striking features. First, a long-period state can be the ground state at low temperatures for some concentrations while only a short-period conventional polar ground state exists for larger x. Second, the electric field-driven transformation, via a first-order transition, of this long-period state into a short-period polar state creates large electromechanical strains (on the order of the percent) and is likely the origin of the colossal piezoelectric response reported in KNN, for which we evaluate an effective piezoelectric coefficient of several thousands of pC/N.