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At least 55 records · Page 3

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗

Avoiding Selection Bias in Generating Examples of Plans in the Presence of Heuristic Error

It is generally understood that heuristic error hurts the performance of search algorithms, measured in terms of search effort. Hence there is an interest in understanding how to reduce heuristic error. One way to do this is to learn a heuristic from a set of examples of plans generated offline, e.g. bootstrapping methods. In this paper, we consider how some methods for generating examples of plans may skew the training set in the presence of heuristic errors. Initial theoretical results show that duplicate detection is one source of selection bias in the canonical A* algorithm. We introduce a duplicate selection scheme for A* that avoids selection bias in generating cost-optimal examples, without compromising memory efficiency, and develop ideas in the satisficing setting. We evaluate our approach on n x m grids with multiple cost-optimal solutions and synthetic heuristic error. Finally, we attempt to extend these ideas to the problem of generating extreme examples of plans.

Alison S Paredes↗

Finite difference methods for reducing numerical diffusion in TEACH-type calculations

A methodological evaluation for two-finite differencing schemes for computer-aided gas turbine design is presented. The two computational schemes include; a Bounded Skewed Finite Differencing Scheme (BSUDS); and a Quadratic Upwind Differencing Scheme (QSDS). In the evaluation, the derivations of the schemes were incorporated into two-dimensional and three-dimensional versions of the Teaching Axisymmetric Characteristics Heuristically (TEACH) computer code. Assessments were made according to performance criteria for the solution of problems of turbulent, laminar, and coannular turbulent flow. The specific performance criteria used in the evaluation were simplicity, accuracy, and computational economy. It is found that the BSUDS scheme performed better with respect to the criteria than the QUDS. Some of the reasons for the more successful performance BSUDS are discussed.

Syed, S. A.↗

A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process

A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process is presented. The core of this testing procedure consists of generating an equivalent ensemble which approximates a true ensemble. Formation of an equivalent ensemble is accomplished through segmenting a sufficiently long time history of a random process into equal, finite, and statistically independent sample records. The weak statistical stationarity is ascertained based on the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble averages. Comparison of these averages with their corresponding time averages over a single sample record leads to a heuristic estimate of the ergodicity of a random process. Specific variance tests are introduced for evaluating the statistical independence of the sample records, the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble autocorrelations, and the ergodicity. Examination and substantiation of these procedures were conducted utilizing turbulent velocity signals.

Sadeh, W. Z.↗

Time-optical spinup maneuvers of flexible spacecraft

Attitude controllers for spacecraft have been based on the assumption that the bodies being controlled are rigid. Future spacecraft, however, may be quite flexible. Many applications require spinning up/down these vehicles. In this work the minimum time control of these maneuvers is considered. The time-optimal control is shown to possess an important symmetry property. Taking advantage of this property, the necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality are transformed into a system of nonlinear algebraic equations in the control switching times during one half of the maneuver, the maneuver time, and the costates at the mid-maneuver time. These equations can be solved using a homotopy approach. Control spillover measures are introduced and upper bounds on these measures are obtained. For a special case these upper bounds can be expressed in closed form for an infinite dimensional evaluation model. Rotational stiffening effects are ignored in the optimal control analysis. Based on a heuristic argument a simple condition is given which justifies the omission of these nonlinear effects. This condition is validated by numerical simulation.

Singh, G.↗

Evaluating scheduling algorithms for traffic with heterogeneous performance objectives

Two types of network traffic are considered: traffic with deadlines, for which the most important performance objective is based on loss rate, and packets without deadlines, for which the most important performance objective is based on mean delay. An optimal scheduling algorithm is presented to minimize weighted loss rate and weighted mean delay in the queues that form at the switches and at the network access points of a packet-switched network, where weights reflect the relative importance of packets. Although not practical for implementation, the algorithm is intended as a standard for the comparison of the performance of other scheduling algorithms. The algorithm is more general and lower computational complexity than previously published algorithms, enabling performance evaluation of some important scenarios that could not previously have been considered. Using the optimal performance results of this algorithm, the performance of the first-come-first-served, static priority, and earliest deadline first scheduling algorithms is evaluated. The results suggest that network efficiency could be improved by using a more sophisticated heuristic scheduling algorithm rather than one of the aforementioned algorithms.

Peha, Jon M.↗

A Belief-Based Model of Air Traffic Controllers Performing Separation Assurance

A model of an air traffic controller performing a separation assurance task was produced. The model was designed to be simple to use and deploy in a simulator, but still provide realistic behavior. The model is based upon an evaluation of the safety function of the controller for separation assurance, and utilizes fast and frugal heuristics and belief networks to establish a knowledge set for the controller model. Based on this knowledge set, the controller acts to keep aircraft separated. Validation results are provided to demonstrate the model s performance.

Landry, S.J.↗

Initial Results of Heuristic Guided Orbit Selection for a Low Frequency Radio Interferometric Spacecraft Constellation

A constellation of radio telescope spacecraft can leverage interferometry to accurately image distant objects throughout the universe, but mission design must balance among many interrelated constraints. In particular, the number of craft and the selection of time-varying orbital parameters play a pivotal role in determining what interferometric baselines are feasible with respect to different targets, and thus drives the breadth and quality of data available to the constellation. The large combinatorial orbit configuration space and competing concerns present a challenging problem that is not well addressed by traditional mission design processes. This paper describes application of automated optimization methods to help direct mission design effort to the most promising dynamic constellation geometries: those that achieve broad interferometric coverage but remain cost-effective and resilient to failures. Several automatic heuristic-driven optimization algorithms representing complementary search strategies were created to explore among concrete constellation configuration plans. Evaluation of each candidate constellation plan was accelerated by efficiently combining precomputed caches of orbital and interferometric data. Results indicate that leveraging automated optimization for constellation mission design is both practical and illuminating: generated solutions provided both evidence for existing design intuitions as well as fresh insights into novel configurations.

Hernandez, Sonia↗

Properties of heuristic search strategies

A directed graph is used to model the search space of a state space representation with single input operators, an AND/OR is used for problem reduction representations, and a theorem proving graph is used for state space representations with multiple input operators. These three graph models and heuristic strategies for searching them are surveyed. The completeness, admissibility, and optimality properties of search strategies which use the evaluation function f = (1 - omega)g = omega(h) are presented and interpreted using a representation of the search process in the plane. The use of multiple output operators to imply dependent successors, and thus obtain a formalism which includes all three types of representations, is discussed.

Vanderbrug, G. J.↗

A knowledge engineering taxonomy for intelligent tutoring system development

This paper describes a study addressing the issue of developing an appropriate mapping of knowledge acquisition methods to problem types for intelligent tutoring system development. Recent research has recognized that knowledge acquisition methodologies are not general across problem domains; the effectiveness of a method for obtaining knowledge depends on the characteristics of the domain and problem solving task. Southwest Research Institute developed a taxonomy of problem types by evaluating the characteristics that discriminate between problems and grouping problems that share critical characteristics. Along with the problem taxonomy, heuristics that guide the knowledge acquisition process based on the characteristics of the class are provided.

Fink, Pamela K.↗

An Expert System-Driven Method for Parametric Trajectory Optimization During Conceptual Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle cost. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult in both cost and schedule to enact. The current capability-based paradigm, which has emerged because of the constrained economic environment, calls for the infusion of knowledge usually acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bringing knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture yet little of the information required to successfully optimize a trajectory is known early in the design phase. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. When these obstacles are coupled with the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, expert trajectory analysts are required to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. Over the course of this paper, the authors discuss a methodology developed at NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office to address these issues. The methodology is two-fold: first, capture the heuristics developed by human analysts over their many years of experience; and secondly, leverage the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously and therefore enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre- conceptual and conceptual phases of design. This methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, which enables trajectory design space visualization and parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be available when early design decisions are being made.

Dees, Patrick D.↗

Iterative refinement scheduling

We present a heuristics-based approach to deep space mission scheduling which is modeled on the approach used by expert human schedulers in producing schedules for planetary encounters. New chronological evaluation techniques are used to focus the search by using information gained during the scheduling process to locate, classify, and resolve regions of conflict. Our approach is based on the assumption that during the construction of a schedule there exist several disjunct temporal regions where the demand for one resource type or a single temporal constraint dominates (bottleneck regions). If the scheduler can identify these regions and classify them based on their dominant constraint, then the scheduler can select the scheduling heuristic.

Biefeld, Eric↗

Decision making and problem solving with computer assistance

In modern guidance and control systems, the human as manager, supervisor, decision maker, problem solver and trouble shooter, often has to cope with a marginal mental workload. To improve this situation, computers should be used to reduce the operator from mental stress. This should not solely be done by increased automation, but by a reasonable sharing of tasks in a human-computer team, where the computer supports the human intelligence. Recent developments in this area are summarized. It is shown that interactive support of operator by intelligent computer is feasible during information evaluation, decision making and problem solving. The applied artificial intelligence algorithms comprehend pattern recognition and classification, adaptation and machine learning as well as dynamic and heuristic programming. Elementary examples are presented to explain basic principles.

Kraiss, F.↗

Efficient mapping algorithms for scheduling robot inverse dynamics computation on a multiprocessor system

Two efficient mapping algorithms for scheduling the robot inverse dynamics computation consisting of m computational modules with precedence relationship to be executed on a multiprocessor system consisting of p identical homogeneous processors with processor and communication costs to achieve minimum computation time are presented. An objective function is defined in terms of the sum of the processor finishing time and the interprocessor communication time. The minimax optimization is performed on the objective function to obtain the best mapping. This mapping problem can be formulated as a combination of the graph partitioning and the scheduling problems; both have been known to be NP-complete. Thus, to speed up the searching for a solution, two heuristic algorithms were proposed to obtain fast but suboptimal mapping solutions. The first algorithm utilizes the level and the communication intensity of the task modules to construct an ordered priority list of ready modules and the module assignment is performed by a weighted bipartite matching algorithm. For a near-optimal mapping solution, the problem can be solved by the heuristic algorithm with simulated annealing. These proposed optimization algorithms can solve various large-scale problems within a reasonable time. Computer simulations were performed to evaluate and verify the performance and the validity of the proposed mapping algorithms. Finally, experiments for computing the inverse dynamics of a six-jointed PUMA-like manipulator based on the Newton-Euler dynamic equations were implemented on an NCUBE/ten hypercube computer to verify the proposed mapping algorithms. Computer simulation and experimental results are compared and discussed.

Lee, C. S. G.↗

Anomaly Detection for the Roman Space Telescope Wide Field Instrument’s Science Data Processing Pipeline

The Roman Space Telescope (RST) Wide Field Instrument (WFI) will be utilizing a preliminary Science Data Processing (SDP) pipeline during its Integration and Test, and to some extent during Operations, to track basic statistics and identify known features such as cosmic rays, snowballs as well as possible anomalies in raw detector data. In our detectors, these anomalies appear as jumps in the ramp of a readout and are classified as cosmic rays if they appear as a streak or snowballs if they’re more circular. The WFI employs an array of 18 H4RG-10 detectors that collect image samples. Each set of raw frames within a non-destructive exposure is packaged by the SDP pipeline into image cubes for each detector. Each cube is a time series of 4096 × 4096 accumulating pixel frames. The preliminary analysis pipeline is used to locate anomalies in these time-series accumulation frames and identify the type of anomaly, either natural phenomena or detector characteristic. To compare different methods, we’ve implemented both heuristic-based and data-driven methods to identify anomalies. For the heuristic-based approach, we identify snowballs and cosmic rays by the size and shape of outlier pixel clusters between consecutive frames. For data driven methods, we evaluated a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, and more traditional methods like Principal Component Analysis (PCA). CNN is a supervised learning/classification method. Thus, we used a labeled dataset of anomalies to perform segmentation of the image and identify anomalies. We used previously identified cosmic rays and snowballs to measure the accuracy and efficiency of the mentioned approaches. In evaluating these methods, we aim to pick the best fit for the SDP pipeline’s anomaly detection in terms of both performance and runtime.

Paul Horton↗

Urban change detection procedures using Landsat digital data

Landsat multispectral scanner data was applied to an urban change detection problem in Denver, CO. A dichotomous key yielding ten stages of residential development at the urban fringe was developed. This heuristic model allowed one to identify certain stages of development which are difficult to detect when performing digital change detection using Landsat data. The stages of development were evaluated in terms of their spectral and derived textural characteristics. Landsat band 5 (0.6-0.7 micron) and texture data produced change detection maps which were approximately 81 percent accurate. Results indicated that the stage of development and the spectral/textural features affect the change in the spectral values used for change detection. These preliminary findings will hopefully prove valuable for improved change detection at the urban fringe.

Jensen, J. R.↗

Development of Near-term Urban Air Mobility Routes and Airspace Integration

Growing interest in Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has been demonstrated by a great deal of investment in related research made by industry, government, and academia. Based on this research effort along with considerations of the maturing concept for UAM airspace integration, a cognitive walkthrough exercise and a human-in-the-loop simulation were conducted with controller subject matter experts (SMEs) to evaluate Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) current day helicopter routes for near-term use as UAM routes. One of the outcomes of this work is a set of heuristics that should be applied when designing UAM routes in the future. The following heuristics were identified as critical to UAM route design: the proximity of routes to surrounding airports (including approach and departure paths of traditional commercial traffic), the configuration of surrounding airports, avoiding congested or heavily populated areas, avoiding route segments that would go through several sectors, avoiding route segments that would go in and out of Class B airspace, creating routes outside of Class B airspace when able, using routes with two-way, altitude-separated traffic when able, minimizing the length of the route, avoiding commonly placed Temporary Flight Restrictions, and creating Non-Movement Areas or UNICOM Areas. This paper describes each of these identified heuristics and relevant examples based on a human-in-the-loop study conducted using the DFW area airspace.

Urban Air Mobility↗