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Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.

Mars 2020 Model Based Systems Engineering Pilot

The pilot study is led by the Integration Engineering group in NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP). The Integration Engineering (IE) group is responsible for managing the interfaces between the spacecraft and launch vehicle. This pilot investigates the utility of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) with respect to managing and verifying interface requirements. The main objectives of the pilot are to model several key aspects of the Mars 2020 integrated operations and interface requirements based on the design and verification artifacts from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) and to demonstrate how MBSE could be used by LSP to gain further insight on the interface between the spacecraft and launch vehicle as well as to enhance how LSP manages the launch service. The method used to accomplish this pilot started through familiarization of SysML, MagicDraw, and the Mars 2020 and MSL systems through books, tutorials, and NASA documentation. MSL was chosen as the focus of the model since its processes and verifications translate easily to the Mars 2020 mission. The study was further focused by modeling specialized systems and processes within MSL in order to demonstrate the utility of MBSE for the rest of the mission. The systems chosen were the In-Flight Disconnect (IFD) system and the Mass Properties process. The IFD was chosen as a system of focus since it is an interface between the spacecraft and launch vehicle which can demonstrate the usefulness of MBSE from a system perspective. The Mass Properties process was chosen as a process of focus since the verifications for mass properties occur throughout the lifecycle and can demonstrate the usefulness of MBSE from a multi-discipline perspective. Several iterations of both perspectives have been modeled and evaluated. While the pilot study will continue for another 2 weeks, pros and cons of using MBSE for LSP IE have been identified. A pro of using MBSE includes an integrated view of the disciplines, requirements, and verifications leading up to launch. The model allows IE to understand the relationships between disciplines throughout test activities and verifications. Additionally, the relationships between disciplines and integration tasks are generally consistent. The model allows for the generic relationships and tasks to be captured and used throughout multiple mission models should LSP further pursue MBSE. A con of MBSE is the amount of time it takes upfront to understand MBSE and create a useful model. The upfront time it takes to create a useful model is heavily discussed in MBSE literature and is a consistent con throughout the known applications of MBSE. The need to understand SysML and the software chosen also poses the possibility of a "bottleneck" or one person being the sole MBSE user for the working group. The utility of MBSE will continue to be evaluated through the remainder of the study. In conclusion, the original objectives of the pilot study were to use artifacts from MSL to model key aspects of Mars 2020 and demonstrate how MBSE could be used by LSP to gain insight into the spacecraft and launch vehicle interfaces. Progress has been made in modeling and identifying the utility of MBSE to LSP IE and will continue to be made until the pilot study's conclusion in mid-August. The results of this study will produce initial models, modeling instructions and examples, and a summary of MBSE's utility for future use by LSP.

Dukes, Alexandra Marie

Modeling and Optimization of a Nuclear Integrated Energy System for the Remote Microgrid on El Hierro

Nuclear microreactors are a potential technology to provide heat and electricity for remote microgrids. There is potential for the microgrid on the island of El Hierro to use a microreactor, within an integrated energy system (IES), to generate electricity and provide desalinated water. This work proposes a workflow for optimizing and analyzing IESs for microgrids. In this study, an IES incorporating a microreactor, thermal energy storage (TES) system, combined heat and power plant, and a thermal desalination plant was designed, optimized, and analyzed using Idaho National Laboratory’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) toolset. The optimization tool, Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), was used to determine the optimal capacity sizes and dispatch for the reactor and thermal energy storage systems to meet demand. The optimized reactor and TES sizes were found to be 11.61 MWth and 58.47 MWhth, respectively, when optimizing the IES to replace 95% of the island’s existing diesel generation needs. A dynamic model of the system was created in the Modelica language, using models from the HYBRID repository, to analyze and verify the dispatch from the optimizer. The dynamic model was able to meet the ramp rates while maintaining reactor power with minimal control adjustments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Nonadiabatic Strong-Field Photoionization Revisited

We measure strong field ionization of cesium atoms, observing a robust feature near 2⁢𝑈p in the photoelectron spectrum, which we call the intermediate energy structure (IES). Using a Coulomb-corrected strong-field approximation, we show it arises from electrons born with large inward velocities that rapidly undergo forward scattering off the Coulomb potential. The IES is similar to the previously identified low energy structure in that they are both due to forward scattering. However, it is different in that IES requires both nonadiabatic ionization conditions (as defined by the Keldysh parameter) and a more weakly bound initial state. Furthermore, our joint experimental and theoretical study supports the need for an additional parameter in characterization of strong field ionization, which depends both on nonadiabaticity of the process and the principal quantum number of the target. Together with Reiss and Keldysh parameters, this dimensionless parameter expands the description of strong field ionization across a broad range of atomic targets and incorporates ionization from excited states.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS

FARM supervisory capabilities for thermal energy storage

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for the analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM aids HERON in the solution of the power dispatch problem by evaluating feasible set-point signals to be issued to the control systems of the different IES unit components. Set-points need to satisfy limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). To enforce all these limits, a two-stage approach is adopted. First, the power dispatcher algorithm in HERON module estimates set-points that meet the constraints on the production variables, e.g., power levels and power ramp rate limits. These constraints are called explicit constraints. Then, if necessary, FARM adjusts these set-points to ensure the respect of the limits on the process variables of interest, given the knowledge of the system dynamics acquired through machine learning algorithms. These constraints are called implicit constraints. From this standpoint, FARM constitutes a bridge between the HERON power dispatcher that adopts a simplified description of the IES unit (low-resolution physics) and the HYBRID high-fidelity models (high-resolution physics). In this report, an overview of the major capabilities of the latest release of FARM is provided, along with a summary of the tool demonstration campaign conducted at the Dynamic Energy Technology and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) facility. These results assess the performance of the control system architecture embedding FARM both as a Validator of the HERON power dispatcher and as a real time Supervisory control scheme. Additionally, the report outlines the areas that FARM might benefit from, along with proposed solutions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models

Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we pro-pose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify the IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the IES optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.

Chen, Xinhe

Geographically Distributed Co-Simulation for the Interplay of Integrated Energy Systems and Power Grid

The increased penetration of renewable generation induces unbalanced demand-supply on a power grid, while integrated energy systems (IES) can provide high part-load efficiency and high flexibility to support grid resilience. To study the transients and improve dynamic operability, it’s important to investigate the interplay between IES and power grid concurrently using real-time co-simulation approaches. In this presentation, we showed the previous co-simulation test between NETL and INL and discussed how this co-simulation can be beneficial for both IES and power grid research. In addition, we gave an overview about the SuperLab2.0 project, which was a federated national platform to address future power grid challenges. (Virtual presentation to the MILLENNIUM CLEAN and SUSTAINABLE POWER workshop 2025).

Co-simulation

The photoelectron spectroscopy of ZnCl2

The ionization energies (IEs) corresponding to the Cl ligand electrons and the Zn 3d electrons in ZnCl2, computed using large Gaussian basis sets and a high level of correlation treatment, are presented. The IEs for the Cl ligand electrons are in excellent agreement with those determined from photoelectron spectra. The IEs corresponding to the Zn 3d electrons agree with experiment relatively well in absolute magnitude, but differ in order. The vibrational frequencies of the ground state agree very well with experiment, and predictions are made for the corresponding frequencies in the positive ion.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.

An observation of the Galactic center hard X-ray source, 1E 1740.7-2942, with the Caltech coded-aperture telescope

The Galactic center region hard X-ray source IE 1740.7-2942 has been observed with the Caltech Gamma-Ray Imaging Payload (GRIP) from Alice Springs, Australia, on 1988 April 12 and on 1989 April 3 and 4. We report here results from the 1989 measurements based on 14 hr of observation of the Galactic center region. The observations showed IE 1740.7-2942 to be in its normal state, having a spectrum between 35 and 200 keV characterized by a power law with an exponent of -2.2 +/- 0.3 and flux at 100 keV of (7.0 +/- 0.7) x 10 exp -5 sq cm s keV. No flux was detected above 200 keV. A search for time variability in the spectrum of IE 1740.7-2942 on one hour time scales showed no evidence for variability.

Heindl, William A.

An efficient formulation of the coupled finite element-integral equation technique for solving large 3D scattering problems

It is often desirable to calculate the electromagnetic fields inside and about a complicated system of scattering bodies, as well as in their far-field region. The finite element method (FE) is well suited to solving the interior problem, but the domain has to be limited to a manageable size. At the truncation of the FE mesh one can either impose approximate (absorbing) boundary conditions or set up an integral equation (IE) for the fields scattered from the bodies. The latter approach is preferable since it results in higher accuracy. Hence, the two techniques can be successfully combined by introducing a surface that encloses the scatterers, applying a FE model to the inner volume and setting up an IE for the tangential fields components on the surface. Here the continuity of the tangential fields is used bo obtain a consistent solution. A few coupled FE-IE methods have recently appeared in the literature. The approach presented here has the advantage of using edge-based finite elements, a type of finite elements with degrees of freedom associated with edges of the mesh. Because of their properties, they are better suited than the conventional node based elements to represent electromagnetic fields, particularly when inhomogeneous regions are modeled, since the node based elements impose an unnatural continuity of all field components across boundaries of mesh elements. Additionally, our approach is well suited to handle large size problems and lends itself to code parallelization. We will discuss the salient features that make our approach very efficient from the standpoint of numerical computation, and the fields and RCS of a few objects are illustrated as examples.

Cwik, T.

Comparing the effects of two in-flight aerobic exercise protocols on standing heart rates and VO(2peak) before and after space flight

The effects of regular aerobic exercise on orthostatic tolerance have been the subject of a long-standing controversy that will influence the use of exercise during space flight. To examine these effects, astronauts performed continuous (CE) aerobic exercise (n = 8), interval (IE) aerobic exercise (n = 4), or no (NE) exercise (n = 5) during flights of 7 to 11 days. Heart rate (HR) responses to an orthostatic challenge (stand test) were measured 10 days before flight and on landing day. VO(2peak) (graded treadmill exercise) was measured 7 to 21 days before and 2 days after flight. No significant differences across the groups were observed in standing HRs before or after flight. However, the within-group mean HRs significantly increased in the NE (71-89 beats/min) and CE (60-85 beats/min) groups after space flight. The HRs for the IE group did not significantly increase (75-86 beats/min) after space flight. VO(2peak) decreased (P < .05) in the NE (-9.5%) group, but did not change in the CE (-2.4%) and IE (1%) groups. The relationship (r = 0.237) between the delta HR and delta VO(2peak) was not significant. These preliminary results indicate that: (1) continuous exercise does not affect the orthostatic HR response after space flight; (2) interval exercise may minimize an increase in the postflight orthostatic HR; and (3) both exercise protocols can maintain VO(2peak).

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal

On Synthetic Absorption Line Profiles of Thermally Driven Winds from Active Galactic Nuclei

The warm absorbers observed in more than half of all nearby active galactic nuclei are tracers of ionized outflows located at parsec-scale distances from the central engine. If the smallest inferred ionization parameters correspond to plasma at a few 104 K, then the gas undergoes a transition from being bound to unbound, provided it is further heated to ∼106 K at larger radii. Dannen et al. recently discovered that, under these circumstances, thermally driven wind solutions are unsteady and even show very dense clumps due to thermal instability. To explore the observational consequences of these new wind solutions, we compute line profiles based on the one-dimensional simulations of Dannen et al. We show how the line profiles from even a simple steady-state wind solution depend on the ionization energy (IE) of absorbing ions, which is a reflection of the wind ionization stratification. To organize the diversity of the line shapes, we group them into four categories: weak Gaussians, saturated boxy profiles with and without an extended blue wing, and broad weak profiles. The lines with profiles in the last two categories are produced by ions with the highest IE that probe the fastest regions. Their maximum blueshifts agree with the highest flow velocities in thermally unstable models, both steady-state and clumpy versions. In contrast, the maximum blueshifts of the highest-IE lines in thermally stable models can be less than half of the actual solution velocities. Clumpy solutions can additionally imprint distinguishable absorption troughs at widely separated velocities.

Shalini Ganguly

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker

Identification of Important Phenomena for Light Water Reactors During Heat Transport System Failure Events in Integrated Energy Systems

This work adapts historical literature and existing phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) to be applicable to a novel nuclear power plant (NPP) and chemical or thermal process integrated energy system (IES), particularly focusing on the process heat and heat transport system failure events that are not a concern during normal NPP operation but become vital when an IES is considered. Nuclear energy has been suggested to go beyond base-load applications and be used for hydrogen co-generation systems, amongst other IESs. Prior to the implementation of nuclear IESs, sufficient analysis must be performed on accident events to ensure public safety. The events considered were deemed important because of their potential to damage systems, structures, and components (SSCs). Process thermal events of concern include loss of heat load and temperature transient events. Loss of heat load events were characterized as having high importance and being well understood. Temperature transient events may be further categorized by the cyclic loading and harmonics phenomena. Cyclic loading issues were classified as medium to high importance with knowledge gaps existing regarding fatigue and low power operation, while harmonics phenomena were classified as low importance and are well understood. Heat transport system failure events of concern include intermediate and process heat exchanger failures, mass addition to reactor coolant, ingress of material from thermal manifold/energy storage, and loss of intermediate fluid. Furthermore, these events tended to be of high or medium importance, with some knowledge gaps needing to be filled for individual reactor systems due to unique designs.

Integrated Energy System (IES)

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network

Dual atom catalysts for rapid electrochemical reduction of CO to ethylene

Strong CO adsorption and facile CO dimerization are the key challenges in electrochemical CO2 reduction towards multi-carbon (C2+) products. We recently showed that CoPc immobilized on a single-walled carbon nanotube can selectively reduce CO2 to methanol. This is enabled through molecular strain, which dramatically improves the CO adsorption energy to CoPc, which in turn facilitates methanol formation. We now examine the extended Phthalocyanine (PcEx) dual atom catalyst (DAC), which is intrinsically strained and contains two catalyst centers, making it a candidate for reducing CO to C2+ products. Using Quantum Mechanics (QM), we screened 20 elements embedded in the PcEx, seeking catalysts with weak hydrogen binding, strong CO binding, and facile CO dimerization. We identi>ied Fe, Ru, Co, and Ir as the best performers and subsequently evaluated the entire CO to C2H4 mechanism (9 steps) using each of these elements as catalysts. In terms of limiting potential and overall exergonicity, we identi>ied CoPcEx as the best catalyst, followed by IrPcEx. We then examined the full CO to C2H4 mechanism on the bimetallic IrCoPcEx catalyst using grand canonical QM to obtain the reaction energetics as a function of applied potential. We conclude that the bimetallic IrCoPcEx is most promising for ef>iciently converting CO to ethylene.

Musgrave, Charles B.

Bond Dissociation Energy, Ionization Energy, and Electronic Structure of Thorium Dimer

Diatomic thorium, Th 2 , has been investigated using a laser ablation, supersonic expansion source to produce the molecule and resonant two-photon ionization spectroscopy to measure its bond dissociation energy (BDE) and ionization energy (IE). The molecule has a high density of states in the vicinity of its bond dissociation energy, leading to rapid predissociation as soon as this energy is exceeded. The BDE is identified from this predissociation threshold as D 0 (Th 2 ) = 2.857(7) eV, where the assigned error limit is provided in parentheses in units of the last quoted digit. Similarly, the one-photon ionization threshold has been measured, providing the ionization energy IE(Th 2 ) = 5.042(4) eV. Together with a thermochemical cycle and the atomic ionization energy, these values provide the BDE of the cation, giving D 0 (Th 2 + ) = 4.122(8) eV. Computations show that Th 2 has three nearly degenerate low-lying electronic states (1 3 Σ u + , 1 1 Σ g + , and 1 3 Δ g ) with bonding dominated by 7s and 6d orbitals, indicating predominantly transition-metal-like behavior. The 1 3 Σ u + state exhibits a triple bond, whereas the 1 1 Σ g + and 1 3 Δ g states possess quadruple-bond character and correspondingly shorter bonds. Although 1 3 Σ u + is predicted to be the lowest state without spin–orbit coupling, the large spin–orbit stabilization of the 1 3 Δ g state makes its Ω = 1 g component the ground state. Furthermore, the calculated dissociation energy (2.840 eV) and ionization energy of Th 2 (5.098 eV) are both in excellent agreement with experiment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH