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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similar when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoding substance use disorder severity from clinical notes using a large language model

Substance use disorder (SUD) poses a major concern due to its detrimental effects on health and society. SUD identification and treatment depend on a variety of factors such as severity, co-determinants (e.g., withdrawal symptoms), and social determinants of health. Existing diagnostic coding systems used by insurance providers, like the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), lack granularity for certain diagnoses, but American clinicians will add this granularity (as that found within the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders classification or DSM-5) as supplemental unstructured text in clinical notes. Traditional natural language processing (NLP) methods face limitations in accurately parsing such diverse clinical language. Large language models (LLMs) offer promise in overcoming these challenges by adapting to diverse language patterns. This study investigates the application of LLMs for extracting severity-related information for various SUD diagnoses from clinical notes. We propose a workflow employing zero-shot learning of LLMs with carefully crafted prompts and post-processing techniques. Through experimentation with Flan-T5, an open-source LLM, we demonstrate its superior recall compared to the rule-based approach. Focusing on 11 categories of SUD diagnoses, we show the effectiveness of LLMs in extracting severity information, contributing to improved risk assessment and treatment planning for SUD patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling backgrounds for the majorana demonstrator

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is a neutrinoless double-beta decay (0?ß ß ) experiment containing ~30 kg of p-type point contact germanium detectors enriched to 88% in 76Ge and ~14 kg of natural germanium detectors. The detectors are housed in two electroformed copper cryostats and surrounded by a graded passive shield with active muon veto. An extensive radioassay campaign was performed prior to installation to insure the use of ultra-clean materials. The DEMONSTRATOR achieved one of the lowest background rates in the region of the 0?ß ß Q-value, 15.7 ± 1.4 cts/(FWHM t y) from the low-background configuration spanning most of the 64.5 kg-yr active exposure. Nevertheless this background rate is a factor of five higher than the projected background rate. This discrepancy arises from an excess of events from the 232Th decay chain. Background model fits aim to understand this deviation from assay-based projections, potentially determine the source(s) of observed backgrounds, and allow a precision measurement of the two-neutrino double-beta decay half-life. The fits agree with earlier simulation studies, which indicate the origin of the 232Th excess is not from a near-detector component and have informed design decisions for the next-generation LEGEND experiment. Recent findings have narrowed the suspected locations for the excess activity, motivating a final simulation and assay campaign to complete the background model.

Haufe, Christopher R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electroluminescence Analysis and Grading of Hail Damaged Solar Panels

We analyzed more than 4000 electroluminescence images of hail damaged solar panels from a cluster of houses in Texas. We enhanced the images for ease of analysis and classified the defects within each solar cell into categories of glass breakage, installer damage, inactive substrings, crack severity, interconnect wire problems, and whether the damage was likely caused by hail. From these statistics, we quantified each panel into five levels of hail damage for insurance claims, and four levels of overall quality for potential resale pricing. Here, we share here some statistics regarding the defects with the hope that the data is useful to others attempting to predict the invisible damage to systems based just on the easily observable glass breakage statistics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-Conductor-Contact Surface Wave Reflectometry for Cable Insulation Damage Detection

Here, this paper presents a non-conductor-contact surface wave-based reflectometry technique to detect and locate missing or damaged insulation and/or jacket of electrical cables. The described sensor may be uniquely and practically implemented on live cables as a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) method since it may be applied to the outer insulation/jacket of a cable and requires no direct contact to the conductor. The innovation lies in a high-frequency surface wave launcher that can introduce broadband signals in the GHz frequencies that insure maximum electromagnetic (EM) energy localization within the insulation and/or jacket material. By further processing the reflection data in the frequency domain, the location and severity of insulation damage is detected. Simulated results of thin, thick, short, and long cables show the results expected from small, medium, and large damage regions. For example, the detection of 40 mm-long damage region at 40 m distance on a 50 m long cable (2.44 cm diameter) is demonstrated. Experimental results are presented that validate simulation findings.

Non Destructive Evaluation↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of interventions in the global land and agri-food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and maintain or increase food production to 2050. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative synergies with and trade-offs against different social and environmental goals has been difficult without direct comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined a series of 40 different options, implemented through land, value chain or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature’s Contributions to People (also known as ecosystem services) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. We find that a relatively small number of interventions show significant positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, agricultural diversification, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, management of invasive species, sustainable source, and reduced post-harvest losses. Several interventions show strong negative impacts on either SDGs, NCPs or in some cases, both; these include bioenergy and BECCS, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of benefits and trade-offs of comparative policy approaches can help decision-makers choose the most effective, or at the very minimum, benign interventions for implementation in specific contexts.

Mcelwee, Pam↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occasions for laughter and dementia risk: Findings from a six‐year cohort study

Aim Currently, there is little evidence on the relationship between laughter and the risk of dementia, and since laughter is mainly a social behavior, we aimed to examine the association between various occasions for laughter and the risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. Methods We draw upon 6‐year follow‐up data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, including 12 165 independent older adults aged 65 years or over. Occasions for laughter were assessed using a questionnaire, while dementia was diagnosed using the standardized dementia scale of the long‐term care insurance system in Japan. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated, yielding hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The multivariable hazard ratio of dementia incidence for all participants in the groups for high versus low variety of occasions for laughter was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72–0.98, P for trend <0.001). A greater variety of occasions for laughter was associated with a lower risk of dementia 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63–0.96, P for trend <0.001) among women, but was less pronounced for men, with significant associations only for the medium group. Laughing during conversations with friends, communicating with children or grandchildren, and listening to the radio were primarily associated with decreased risk. Conclusion A greater variety of laughter occasions in individual and social settings was associated with a reduced risk of dementia. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 392–398 .

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2022

Movement with meaning: integrating information into meta-ecology

Fluxes of matter, energy and information over space and time contribute to ecosystems' functioning and stability. The meta-ecosystem framework addresses the dynamics of ecosystems linked by these fluxes but, to date, has focused solely on energy and matter. Here, we synthesize existing knowledge of information's effects on local and connected ecosystems and demonstrate how new hypotheses emerge from the integration of ecological information into meta-ecosystem theory. First, we begin by defining information and reviewing how it flows among ecosystems to affect connectivity, local ecosystem function and meta-ecosystem dynamics. We focus on the role of semiotic information: that which can reduce an individual's – or a group's – uncertainty about the state of the world. Semiotic information elicits behavioral, developmental and life history responses from organisms, potentially leading to fitness consequences. Organisms' responses to information can ripple through trophic interactions to influence ecosystem processes, their local and regional dynamics, and the spatiotemporal flows of energy and matter, therefore information should affect meta-ecosystem dynamics such as stability and productivity. While specific subdisciplines of ecology currently consider different types of information (e.g. social and cultural information, natural and artificial light or sound, body condition, genotype and phenotype), many ecological models currently account for neither the spatio–temporal distribution of information nor its perception by organisms. We identify the empirical, theoretical and philosophical challenges in developing a robust information meta-ecology and offer ways to overcome them. Finally, we present new hypotheses for how accounting for realistic information perception and responses by organisms could impact processes such as home range formation and spatial insurance, and thus our understanding of ecological dynamics across spatial and temporal scales. Accounting for information will be essential to understanding how dynamics such as fitness, organismal movement and trophic interactions influence meta-ecosystem functioning, and predicting how ecosystem processes are affected by anthropogenic pressures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drug providers’ perspectives on antibiotic misuse practices in eastern Ethiopia: a qualitative study

Objective Antibiotic misuse includes using them to treat colds and influenza, obtaining them without a prescription, not finishing the prescribed course and sharing them with others. Although drug providers are well positioned to advise clients on proper stewardship practices, antibiotic misuse continues to rise in Ethiopia. It necessitates an understanding of why drug providers failed to limit such risky behaviours. This study aimed to explore drug providers’ perspectives on antibiotic misuse practices in eastern Ethiopia. Setting The study was conducted in rural Haramaya district and Harar town, eastern Ethiopia. Design and participants An exploratory qualitative study was undertaken between March and June 2023, among the 15 drug providers. In-depth interviews were conducted using pilot-tested, semistructured questions. The interviews were transcribed verbatim, translated into English and analysed thematically. The analyses considered the entire dataset and field notes. Results The study identified self-medication pressures, non-prescribed dispensing motives, insufficient regulatory functions and a lack of specific antibiotic use policy as the key contributors to antibiotic misuse. We found previous usage experience, a desire to avoid extra costs and a lack of essential diagnostics and antibiotics in public institutions as the key drivers of non-prescribed antibiotic access from private drug suppliers. Non-prescribed antibiotic dispensing in pharmacies was driven by client satisfaction, financial gain, business survival and market competition from informal sellers. Antibiotic misuse in the setting has also been linked to traditional and ineffective dispensing audits, inadequate regulatory oversights and policy gaps. Conclusion This study highlights profits and oversimplified access to antibiotics as the main motivations for their misuse. It also identifies the traditional antibiotic dispensing audit as an inefficient regulatory operation. Hence, enforcing specific antibiotic usage policy guidance that entails an automated practice audit, a responsible office and insurance coverage for persons with financial limitations can help optimise antibiotic use while reducing resistance consequences.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Facilitating Reforestation Through the Plant Microbiome: Perspectives from the Phyllosphere

Tree planting and natural regeneration contribute to the ongoing effort to restore Earth's forests. Our review addresses how the plant microbiome can enhance the survival of planted and naturally regenerating seedlings and serve in long-term forest carbon capture and the conservation of biodiversity. We focus on fungal leaf endophytes, ubiquitous defensive symbionts that protect against pathogens. We first show that fungal and oomycetous pathogen richness varies greatly for tree species native to the United States ( n = 0–876 known pathogens per US tree species), with nearly half of tree species either without pathogens in these major groups or with unknown pathogens. Endophytes are insurance against the poorly known and changing threat of tree pathogens. Next, we review studies of plant phyllosphere feedback, but knowledge gaps prevent us from evaluating whether adding conspecific leaf litter to planted seedlings promotes defensive symbiosis, analogous to adding soil to promote positive feedback. Finally, we discuss research priorities for integrating the plant microbiome into efforts to expand Earth's forests.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Techno Economic Model

The Stochastic Techno-Economic Model or STEM is an analytical tool that estimates the logistics cost of different biomass feedstocks by incorporating uncertainty into the modeling framework. The scope of the model covers multiple stages of the biomass life cycle spanning feedstock harvest, collection, transportation and handling, preprocessing, and storage. The model determines the total logistics cost per dry metric ton ($/DM ton) for biomass and breaks down the costs for important cost categories including ownership related costs such as interest and depreciation, insurance, housing, and taxes as well as operating costs like repairs and maintenance, labor costs, and fuel and lube costs.

Burli, PralhadH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wildfire smoke exposure and early childhood respiratory health: a study of prescription claims data

Abstract Wildfire smoke is associated with short-term respiratory outcomes including asthma exacerbation in children. As investigations into developmental wildfire smoke exposure on children’s longer-term respiratory health are sparse, we investigated associations between developmental wildfire smoke exposure and first use of respiratory medications. Prescription claims from IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters database were linked with wildfire smoke plume data from NASA satellites based on Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). A retrospective cohort of live infants (2010–2016) born into MSAs in six western states (U.S.A.), having prescription insurance, and whose birthdate was estimable from claims data was constructed ( N = 184,703); of these, gestational age was estimated for 113,154 infants. The residential MSA, gestational age, and birthdate were used to estimate average weekly smoke exposure days ( smoke-day ) for each developmental period: three trimesters, and two sequential 12-week periods post-birth. Medications treating respiratory tract inflammation were classified using active ingredient and mode of administration into three categories:: 'upper respiratory', 'lower respiratory', 'systemic anti-inflammatory'. To evaluate associations between wildfire smoke exposure and medication usage, Cox models associating smoke-days with first observed prescription of each medication category were adjusted for infant sex, birth-season, and birthyear with a random intercept for MSA. Smoke exposure during postnatal periods was associated with earlier first use of upper respiratory medications (1–12 weeks: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.094 per 1-day increase in average weekly smoke-day, 95%CI: (1.005,1.191); 13–24 weeks: HR = 1.108, 95%CI: (1.016,1.209)). Protective associations were observed during gestational windows for both lower respiratory and systemic anti-inflammatory medications; it is possible that these associations may be a consequence of live-birth bias. These findings suggest wildfire smoke exposure during early postnatal developmental periods impact subsequent early life respiratory health.

Dhingra, Radhika↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Million Person Study Innovation: Evaluating Cognitive Impairment and other Morbidity Outcomes from Chronic Radiation Exposure Through Linkages with the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services Assessment and Claims Data

Here, the study of One Million U.S. Radiation Workers and Veterans, the Million Person Study (MPS), examines the health consequences, both cancer and non-cancer, of exposure to ionizing radiation received gradually over time. Recently the MPS has focused on mortality patterns from neurological and behavioral conditions, e.g., Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, dementia, and motor neuron disease such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. A fuller picture of radiation-related late effects comes from studying both mortality and the occurrence (incidence) of conditions not leading to death. Accordingly, the MPS is identifying neurocognitive diagnoses from fee-for-service insurance claims from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), among Medicare beneficiaries beginning in 1999 (the earliest date claims data are available). Linkages to date have identified ∼540,000 workers with available health information. Such linkages provide individual information on important co-factor and confounding variables such as smoking, alcohol consumption, blood pressure, obesity, diabetes and many other health and demographic characteristics. The total person-level set of time-dependent variables, outcomes, organ-specific dose measures, co-factors, and demographics will be massive and much too large to be evaluated with standard software. Thus, development of specialized open-source software designed for large datasets (Colossus) is nearly complete. The wealth of information available from CMS claims data, coupled with individual dose reconstructions, will thus greatly enhance the quality and precision of health evaluations for this new field of low-dose radiation and neurocognitive effects.

Dauer, Lawrence T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Predictive Capabilities for Nuclear Weapons in Composite Fires

The prevalence of flammable carbon-based composite airframe materials and their use in high-temperature nuclear weapon re-entry systems requires analysts to address the abnormal thermal environment hazards associated with composite material fires. These fires tend to burn very differently than conventional fuel fires, usually burning less intensely, but much longer. This could lead to challenges in understanding margins in classic safety themes. The technical challenges in modeling the phenomena associated with these new types of fires are considerable, but new models have been developed. Their predictions have been compared with well-documented measurements of a vertical porous burner fire, known as a "wall fire" (a "wall-fire" validation simulation is reflected in the figures below). These measurements were conducted at FMGlobal, a mutual insurance company with a strong fire risk management program, as part of an ongoing collaboration between Sandia and FMGlobal. To date, the "wall-fire" scenario has been set up and initial model assessments with grid refinement studies have been conducted focusing on mesh resolutions suitable for full weapon system simulations. This work will continue with further verification and validation tasks assessing the predictions of the new model. Future work will address specific aspects of the wall models that are lacking in their predictive ability.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protect Your Family: Reduce Contamination at Home: A Summary of a Study Conducted by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

Congress enacted the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA) without including specific provisions for protecting the privacy of healthrelated information. The law gave Congress three years to enact such requirements and provided that if it failed to do so the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) was obligated to promulgate regulations to implement the statutory standards. When Congress failed to meet the deadline, the obligation to issue privacy regulations passed to DHHS. DHHS received over 52,000 comments on the proposed regulations. Responses to the comments and the final rule were published in the Federal Register on December 28, 2000. The cost of implementing the regulations over a ten-year period was estimated at $17.6 billion by DHHS. Industry estimates the cost at five times that amount.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices

Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) funded the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop various cybersecurity tools, trainings, and reports to aid federal facility managers – and other building owners and operators – in better applying frameworks and lessons learned from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), risk management framework (RMF), DOE’s cybersecurity capability maturity model (C2M2), and a wide variety of industry best practices and guidance documents (i.e., NIST 800 series, Department of Defense United Facilities Criteria). This set of tools, collectively known as the FEMP Facility-Related Control System Cyber Toolkit (FRCS Cyber Toolkit)2, is focused on cybersecurity concerns from facility-related control systems and other operational technology (OT), such as industrial control systems (ICS). The FRCS Cyber Toolkit can be applied across six of the sixteen critical infrastructure sectors designated by the Department of Homeland Security, including government facilities, healthcare and public health, commercial facilities (e.g., public assembly, offices, lodging), financial services (e.g., banking and insurance), emergency services (e.g., fire and police stations), and information technology. With increasingly converged IT and OT systems, it is crucial to address OT cybersecurity considerations and assess how the seam of these two systems could impact the overall cybersecurity posture of a facility. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the best possible method to use FRCS Cyber Toolkit (section 2.0) and distilled cybersecurity best practices for the federal facilities to address growing non-linear cyber threats (section 3.0). Recommendations in this document are aggregated from several NIST and other documents (see Appendix A for additional details).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]

Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗