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Intermodel spread of the double‐ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs
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Diurnal Cycle of the ITCZ in DYNAMO
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Role of Equatorial Cold Tongue in Central Pacific Double-ITCZ Bias in the NCAR CESM1.2
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Hemispherically Asymmetric Volcanic Forcing of Tropical Hydroclimate During the Last Millennium
Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing. Here we use two separate general circulation model (GCM) suites of experiments for the last millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation (delta sup 18 Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation in the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for interpreting volcanic signals in proxy records and therefore in evaluating the skill of Common Era climate model output.
On the Origin of Monsoon
The notion that the continental-scale land-sea contrast is the main reason that monsoon circulation exists has been a long-held belief. The purpose of this paper is to point out that this notion should be substantially modified. The central idea of this notion states that in summer, radiative heating of the continent, say Asia, gives rise to a continental-scale thermal low and surrounding the thermal low in its southeast direction the low level wind flows in from south-west. This low-level inflow creates a convergence of moisture, which maintains the cumulus convection. And in winter, radiative cooling of continent gives rise to a thermal high and to its southeast the low-level wind is from northeast. The mechanism in this interpretation does undoubtedly exist. However, this mechanism, though believed to be the main driving force of monsoon, has not been tested in numerical experiments. There has been an increasing recognition in the recent years that monsoon is inextricably tied to the heating in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). We propose that the main cause of monsoon is ITCZ's being substantially away from the equator. A brief qualitative explanation of why the ITCZ can be a source of monsoon circulation can be offered based on the circulation field forced by the ITCZ heating. The existence of the ITCZ's does not always have to rely on land-sea contrast on the continental scale. This is hinted in the fact that in February the ITCZ close to Australia (and its associated monsoon circulation) covers a longitudinal range several times as long as that of Australia and thus cannot possibly be caused mainly by the land-sea contrast associated with Australia. Yet, this cannot be used as a proof that the ITCZ in the Asian summer monsoon is not mainly due to land-sea contrast. One of the purposes of this work is to provide a convincing proof. In this work the role of land-sea contrast in the origin of monsoon is examined through numerical simulation with the Goddard general circulation model. The Asian and Australian monsoon circulations are obtained in a four-year integration and then the integration is repeated with Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia replaced by ocean. The sea surface temperature (SST) at each affected grid is specified as the SST at the first grid to the east that is an ocean grid in the first experiment. The latter integration shows that the monsoon circulation pattern over where south Asia and Australia were and the surrounding region has largely remained. The results discount land-sea contrast as the main cause of Asian monsoon. A third experiment is the same as the first except that the topography of Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia is reduced to zero. This experiment reveals that the difference between the first two experiments is due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. August precipitation is shown averaged over the last three years of each of the three experiments. They show that the Asian monsoon rainy region is largely intact in the second experiment and the difference between the second and the third experiment is mainly in the longitudinal location of the maximum precipitation. Additionally, in Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a modifying role. Although land-sea contrast plays only a modifying role in Asian and Australian (and Central American including Mexican) monsoons, it is the main reason that ITCZ (and thus monsoon) exists in Africa and South America. Thus, monsoons can be classified into two groups depending on whether land-sea contrast plays a major role.
Factors Affecting the Latitudinal Location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in a GCM
The dominant role of the latitudinal peak of the sea surface temperature (SST) in determining the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is well-known. However, the roles of the other factors are less well-known and are the topic of this study. These other factors include the inertial stability, the interaction between convection and surface fluxes and the interaction between convection and radiation. Since these interactions involve convection, in a model they involve the cumulus parameterization scheme. These factors are studied with a general circulation model with uniform SST and solar angle. Under the aforementioned model settings, the latitudinal location of the ITCZ is the latitude where the balance of two types of attraction on the ITCZ, both due to earth's rotation, exists. Directly related to the Coriolis parameter, the first type pulls the ITCZ toward the equator and is not sensitive to model design changes. Related to the convective circulation, the second type pulls the ITCZ poleward and is sensitive to model design changes. Due to the shape and the magnitude of the attractors, the balance of the two types of attractions is reached either at the equator or more than 10 degrees away from the equator. The former case results in a single ITCZ over the equator and the latter case a double ITCZ straddling the equator.
Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region
Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.
Preferred latitudes of the intertropical convergence zone
The latitude preference of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is examined on the basis of observations, theory, and a modeling analysis. Observations show that convection is enhanced at latitudes of about 4 deg to 10 deg relative to the equator, even in regions where the sea surface temperature (SST) is maximum on the equator. Both linear shallow-water theory and a moist primitive equation model suggest a new explanation for the off-equatorial latitude preference of the ITCZ that requires neither the existence of zonally propagating disturbances nor an off-equatorial maximum in SST. The shallow-water theory indicates that a finite-width, zonally oriented, midtropospheric heat source (i.e., an ITCZ) produces the greatest local low-level convergence when placed a finite distance away from the equator. This result suggests that an ITCZ is most likely to be supported via low-level convergence of moist energy when located at these "preferred" latitudes away from the equator. For a plausible range of heating widths and damping parameters, the theoretically predicted latitude is approximately equal to the observed position (s) of the ITCZ (s). Analysis with an axially symmetric, moist, primitive equation model indicates that when the latent heating field is allowed to be determined internally, a positive feedback develops between the midtropospheric latent heating and the low-level convergence, with the effect of enhancing the organization of convection at latitudes of about 4 deg to 12 deg. Numerical experiments show that (1) two peaks in convective precipitation develop straddling the equator when the SST maximum is located on the equator; (2) steady ITCZ-like structures form only when the SST maximum is located away from the equator; and (3) peaks in convection can develop away from the maximum in SST, with a particular preference for latitudes of about 4 deg to 12 deg, even in the ('cold') hemisphere without the SST maximum. The relationship between this mechanism and earlier theories is discussed, as are implications for the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and the roles played by midlevel latent heating and SST gradients in forcing the low-level atmospheric circulation in the tropics.
On the Origin of Monsoon
It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.
The Strength of Coupling to the Southern Ocean Modulates Tropical Eastern Pacific Variability and Forced Response
Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development.
Rain Reevaporation, Boundary Layer Convection Interactions, and Pacific Rainfall Patterns in an AGCM
Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that parameterized rain re-evaporation has a large impact on simulated precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific, especially on the configuration of the model s intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Weak re-evaporation leads t o the formation of a "double ITCZ" during the northern warm season. The double ITCZ is accompanied by strong coupling between precipitation and high-frequency vertical motion in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Strong reevaporation leads to a better overall agreement of simulated precipitation with observations. The model s double ITCZ bias is reduced. At the same time, correlation between high-frequency vertical motion in the PBL and precipitation is reduced. Experiments with modified physics suggest that evaporative cooling by rain near the PBL top weakens the coupling between precipitation and vertical motion. This may reduce the model s tendency to form double ITCZs. The strength of high-frequency vertical motions in the PBL was also reduced directly through the introduction of a diffusive cumulus momentum transport (DCMT) parameterization. The DCMT had a visible impact on simulated precipitation in the tropics, but did not reduce the model s double bias in all cases.
Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic
Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the mid-latitudes. Hence the anomalies associated with the tropical Pacific during JJA are forced through an anomalous Walker circulation primarily working on the western basin, and likely a lagged oceanic response in the equatorial region.
A Northward Shift of the North Atlantic Ocean Intertropical Convergence Zone in Response to Summertime Saharan Dust Outbreaks
The influence on the summertime North Atlantic Ocean inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) of Saharan dust outbreaks is explored using nine years of continuous satellite observations and atmospheric reanalysis products. During dust outbreak events rainfall along the ITCZ shifts northward by 1 to 4 degrees latitude. Dust outbreaks coincide with warmer lower-tropospheric temperatures compared to low dust conditions, which is attributable to advection of the warm Saharan Air Layer, enhanced subtropical subsidence, and radiative heating of dust. The enhanced positive meridional temperature gradient coincident with dust outbreaks is accompanied by an acceleration of the easterly winds on the n011h side of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The center of the positive vorticity region south of the AEJ moves north drawing the center of low-level convergence and ITCZ rainfall northward with it. The enhanced precipitation on the north side of the ITCZ occurs in spite of widespread sea surface temperature cooling north of the ITCZ owing to reduced surface solar insolation by dust scattering.
Radiative feedbacks on land surface change and associated tropical precipitation shifts
Changes in land surface albedo and land surface evaporation modulate the atmospheric energy budget by changing temperatures, water vapor, clouds, snow and ice cover, and the partitioning of surface energy fluxes. Here idealized perturbations to land surface properties are imposed in a global model to understand how such forcings drive shifts in zonal mean atmospheric energy transport and zonal mean tropical precipitation. For a uniform decrease in global land albedo, the albedo forcing and a positive water vapor feedback contribute roughly equally to increased energy absorption at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while radiative changes due to the temperature and cloud cover response provide a negative feedback and energy loss at TOA. Decreasing land albedo causes a northwards shift in the zonal mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The combined effects on ITCZ location of all atmospheric feedbacks roughly cancel for the albedo forcing; the total ITCZ shift is comparable to that predicted for the albedo forcing alone. For an imposed increase in evaporative resistance that reduces land evaporation, low cloud cover decreases in the northern mid-latitudes and more energy is absorbed at TOA there; longwave loss due to warming provides a negative feedback on the TOA energy balance and ITCZ shift. Imposed changes in land albedo and evaporative resistance modulate fundamentally different aspects of the surface energy budget. However, the pattern of TOA radiation changes due to the water vapor and air temperature responses are highly correlated for these two forcings because both forcings lead to near-surface warming.
Determination of trace gases in learjet and U-2 whole air samples collected during the intertropical convergence zone experiment
The contribution of Washington State University (WSU) to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) study, conducted in the Panama Canal Zone in July 1977 is reported. The ITCZ program had the objective to study the meteorology and air chemistry to determine, if possible, the magnitude of injection of tropospheric air into the stratosphere in the ITCZ. WSU was responsible for two phases of the air chemistry program for the ITCZ study: (1) the collection of whole-air samples from ground level to 13.7 km using a Learjet as a sampling platform, and the analysis of the samples for selected halocarbons, C2 hydrocarbons, N2O, and SF6; and (2) the analysis for selected halocarbon species and N2O of low pressure whole-air samples, collected between 13.7 km and 21.3 km by a U-2 aircraft. The report is divided into separate sections describing the Learjet and the U-2 sampling methods, analytical methods, and results. Complete data tables for all samples analyzed are given.
Satellite-derived interannual variability of West African rainfall during 1983-88
Two satellite algorithms for rain estimation are used to study the interannual variability of West African rainfall during contrasting years of the period 1983-88. The first algorithm uses a frequency of occurrence index quantifying the number of times Meteosat thermal infrared radiance below 2.107 W/sq m/sr/micrometer (-40 C) occurs during the rainy season. The second algorithm uses the average Meteosat thermal infrared radiance over the period of interest. Appropriate calibrations are performed using these satellite parameters and ground-based rainfall observations. Separate calibration and equations are considered for each of three suggested subrainfall zones in West Africa: two Sahelian zones located just north of 9 deg N (one east and one west of 5 deg W) and the region extending south from 9 deg N to the coast. Over 80% of the variance in the ground-based rainfall data is explained by both algorithms in regions located north of 9 deg N, but poor correlations between observed and estimated rainfall exist south of 9 deg N. The interannual variability of rainfall in the Sahel is well described by that of cold clouds and average radiances. The satellite estimates also reveal substantial longitudinal variability in the anomaly fields, indicating that some Sahelo-Soudanian areas may receive above average rainfall during a year cataloged as dry. The latitudinal displacement and the extent of the cloud band associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as derived from cold cloud indices, indicate a northward displacement of the ITCZ in some, but not all, wet years in the Sahel. No systematic anomalous southward displacement of the ITCZ is evident in dry years. Drought in the Sahel appears to be more closely linked to the lattitudinal extent and the intensity of the convection within the ITCZ.