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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation and ice nucleation in convective systems: A comparative analysis between in situ aircraft observations and WRF simulations: Ice Supersaturation in Convective System

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) > 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double-moment microphysical schemes at temperatures ≤-40°C. All four schemes capture both clear-sky and in-cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear-sky (in-cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by ~3–4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds (>1 m s -1 ) than those at the lower updraft speeds when ice water content (IWC) > 0.01 g m -3 , while observations show smaller differences up to ~1–2 orders of magnitude. The simulated ISS also occurs less frequently at weaker updrafts and downdrafts than observed. These results indicate that the simulations have a greater dependence on stronger updrafts to maintain/generate ISS at higher IWC. At lower IWC (≤0.01 g m -3 ), simulations unexpectedly show lower ISS frequencies at stronger updrafts. Overall, the Thompson aerosol-aware scheme has the closest magnitudes and frequencies of ISS >20% to the observations, and the modified Morrison has the closest correlations between ISS frequencies and vertical velocity at higher IWC and number density. The Cooper parameterization often generates excessive ice crystals and therefore suppresses the frequency and magnitude of ISS, indicating that it should be initiated at higher ISS (e.g., ≥25%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Regime dependence of ice cloud heterogeneity – a convective life‐cycle effect?

Cloud condensate varies on scales smaller than those typically resolved by global weather and climate models. In order to accurately predict the radiative and microphysical process rates representative of the entire model grid box, the effect of the subgrid‐scale heterogeneity of cloud must be taken into account. In this study, observed ice water content retrieved from A‐Train satellite observations is used to explore how spatial ice condensate variability, characterized by the fractional standard deviation (FSD, the standard deviation divided by the mean), varies with cloud regime. FSD is generally lower for overcast cloud scenes, but an additional predictor based on convective activity is needed to capture the high FSD associated with more turbulent clouds and reproduce the observed latitudinal and height variations of FSD. Convective clouds that extend only a few kilometres above the freezing level are likely to be smaller at an earlier stage in their life cycle, and actively growing with a higher FSD. In contrast, more mature clouds reaching the tropopause are larger and generally have a lower variability and smaller FSD. To capture this life‐cycle effect, a new parametrization is tested which uses the ratio of a model's convectively detrained condensate to the existing cloud condensate mass as a proxy for the cloud's convective life stage to highlight areas with enhanced condensate variability. The parametrization is scale‐adaptive, situation‐dependent and captures seasonally varying global patterns and the zonal mean vertical structure of observed ice condensate variability well. Ground‐based observations obtained from five Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites provide independent confirmation that the parametrization satisfactorily captures condensate variability in high‐altitude ice clouds.

Ahlgrimm, Maike↗
DOE OSTI2018

Ice-VII inclusions in diamonds: Evidence for aqueous fluid in Earth’s deep mantle

Water-rich regions in Earth’s deeper mantle are suspected to play a key role in the global water budget and the mobility of heat-generating elements. Here, we show that ice-VII occurs as inclusions in natural diamond and serves as an indicator for such water-rich regions. Ice-VII, the residue of aqueous fluid present during growth of diamond, crystallizes upon ascent of the host diamonds but remains at pressures as high as 24 gigapascals; it is now recognized as a mineral by the International Mineralogical Association. In particular, ice-VII in diamonds points toward fluid-rich locations in the upper transition zone and around the 660-kilometer boundary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Aerodynamic and Supercooled Liquid Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for development of icing physics models and simulation validation. To that end, this paper presents the analysis of the supercooled liquid icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled water and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized supercooled liquid icing and ice crystal icing conditions. This paper discusses measurements related to aerodynamic testing and supercooled liquid icing tests that were conducted. Aerodynamic measurements were analyzed and compared to computational simulations and were found to be in good agreement for the range of airspeeds (50 to 230 knots) and angles of attack (0 to 4°) tested. Various parametric sweeps were conducted during the supercooled liquid icing portion of the test entry (cloud median volumetric diameter ranged from 15 to 90 µm, total air temperature from -3 to -17 °C, angle of attack from 0 to 4°, and accretion time from 5 to 20 min). These sweeps were performed to measure that parameter’s impact on ice accretion size, location (icing extent), characteristics (such as glaze/rime ice and shedding behavior), and test article surface temperature. Analysis of the test data showed that clouds composed of larger drops, colder air temperatures, smaller angles of attack, and longer spray times were the primary parameters that resulted in accretions with greater ice mass. Test article angle of attack and cloud droplet size influenced the location of ice accretion as these two parameters directly impact collection efficiency. With respect to icing characteristics, total air temperature dictated icing type, and smaller cloud drop size along with warmer air temperatures resulted in greater amounts of ice shedding. Surface temperature increased during ice accretion from the release of latent (fusion) heat, where total air temperature and cloud drop size impacted the amount of surface temperature change. The icing measurements collected during the SIDRM tests will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost effective way.

supercooled liquid icing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Aerodynamic and Supercooled Liquid Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for development of icing physics models and simulation validation. To that end, this paper discusses analyzed data from icing tests conducted with a 3D test article in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel. The test article, whose geometry is representative of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine, has been designed and constructed to study the physics of supercooled water icing and ice crystal icing. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized supercooled liquid icing and ice crystal icing conditions. This paper discusses measurements related to aerodynamic tests and supercooled liquid icing tests that were conducted. Aerodynamic measurements were analyzed and compared to computational simulations and were found to be in good agreement for the range of airspeeds (50 to 230 knots) and angles of attack (0 to 4°) tested. Various parametric sweeps were conducted during the supercooled liquid icing portion of the test entry (cloud median volumetric diameter ranged from 15 to 90 µm, total air temperature from -3 to -17 °C, angle of attack from 0 to 4°, and accretion time from 5 to 20 min). These sweeps were performed to measure that parameter’s impact on ice accretion size, location, characteristics (such as glaze/rime ice and shedding behavior), and test article surface temperature. Analysis of the test data showed that clouds composed of larger drops, colder air temperatures, smaller angles of attack, and longer spray times were the primary parameters that resulted in accretions with greater ice mass. Test article angle of attack and cloud droplet size influenced the location of ice accretion as these two parameters directly impact collection efficiency. With respect to icing characteristics, total air temperature dictated icing type, and smaller cloud drop size along with warmer air temperatures resulted in greater amounts of ice shedding. Surface temperature increased during ice accretion from the release of latent (fusion) heat, where total air temperature and cloud drop size impacted the amount of surface temperature change. The icing measurements collected during the SIDRM tests will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost‑effective way.

supercooled liquid icing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ice Accretions and Full-Scale Iced Aerodynamic Performance Data for a Two-Dimensional NACA 23012 Airfoil

This report documents the data collected during the large wind tunnel campaigns conducted as part of the SUNSET project (StUdies oN Scaling EffecTs due to ice) also known as the Ice-Accretion Aerodynamics Simulation study: a joint effort by NASA, the Office National d'Etudes et Recherches Aérospatiales (ONERA), and the University of Illinois. These data form a benchmark database of full-scale ice accretions and corresponding ice-contaminated aerodynamic performance data for a two-dimensional (2D) NACA 23012 airfoil. The wider research effort also included an analysis of ice-contaminated aerodynamics that categorized ice accretions by aerodynamic effects and an investigation of subscale, low- Reynolds-number ice-contaminated aerodynamics for the NACA 23012 airfoil. The low-Reynolds-number investigation included an analysis of the geometric fidelity needed to reliably assess aerodynamic effects of airfoil icing using artificial ice shapes. Included herein are records of the ice accreted during campaigns in NASA Glenn Research Center's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). Two different 2D NACA 23012 airfoil models were used during these campaigns; an 18-in. (45.7-cm) chord (subscale) model and a 72-in. (182.9-cm) chord (full-scale) model. The aircraft icing conditions used during these campaigns were selected from the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 25 Appendix C icing envelopes. The records include the test conditions, photographs of the ice accreted, tracings of the ice, and ice depth measurements. Model coordinates and pressure tap locations are also presented. Also included herein are the data recorded during a wind tunnel campaign conducted in the F1 Subsonic Pressurized Wind Tunnel of ONERA. The F1 tunnel is a pressured, high- Reynolds-number facility that could accommodate the full-scale (72-in. (182.9-cm) chord) 2D NACA 23012 model. Molds were made of the ice accreted during selected test runs of the full-scale model in the IRT. From these molds, castings were made that closely replicated the features of the accreted ice. The castings were then mounted on the full-scale model in the F1 tunnel, and aerodynamic performance measurements were made using model surface pressure taps, the facility force balance system, and a large wake rake designed specifically for these tests. Tests were run over a range of Reynolds and Mach numbers. For each run, the model was rotated over a range of angles-of-attack that included airfoil stall. The benchmark data collected during these campaigns were, and continue to be, used for various purposes. The full-scale data form a unique, ice-accretion and associated aerodynamic performance dataset that can be used as a reference when addressing concerns regarding the use of subscale ice-accretion data to assess full-scale icing effects. Further, the data may be used in the development or enhancement of both ice-accretion prediction codes and computational fluid dynamic codes when applied to study the effects of icing. Finally, as was done in the wider study, the data may be used to help determine the level of geometric fidelity needed for artificial ice used to assess aerodynamic degradation due to aircraft icing. The structured, multifaceted approach used in this research effort provides a unique perspective on the aerodynamic effects of aircraft icing. The data presented in this report are available in electronic form upon formal approval by proper NASA and ONERA authorities.

Addy, Harold E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Validation Ice Crystal Icing Engine Test in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory at NASA Glenn Research Center

The Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) is an existing altitude simulation jet engine test facility located at NASA Glenn Research Center in Clevleand, OH. It was modified in 2012 with the integration of an ice crystal cloud generation system. This paper documents the inaugural ice crystal cloud test in PSLthe first ever full scale, high altitude ice crystal cloud turbofan engine test to be conducted in a ground based facility. The test article was a Lycoming ALF502-R5 high bypass turbofan engine, serial number LF01. The objectives of the test were to validate the PSL ice crystal cloud calibration and engine testing methodologies by demonstrating the capability to calibrate and duplicate known flight test events that occurred on the same LF01 engine and to generate engine data to support fundamental and computational research to investigate and better understand the physics of ice crystal icing in a turbofan engine environment while duplicating known revenue service events and conducting test points while varying facility and engine parameters. During PSL calibration testing it was discovered than heated probes installed through tunnel sidewalls experienced ice buildup aft of their location due to ice crystals impinging upon them, melting and running back. Filtered city water was used in the cloud generation nozzle system to provide ice crystal nucleation sites. This resulted in mineralization forming on flow path hardware that led to a chronic degradation of performance during the month long test. Lacking internal flow path cameras, the response of thermocouples along the flow path was interpreted as ice building up. Using this interpretation, a strong correlation between total water content (TWC) and a weaker correlation between median volumetric diameter (MVD) of the ice crystal cloud and the rate of ice buildup along the instrumented flow path was identified. For this test article the engine anti-ice system was required to be turned on before ice crystal icing would occur. The ice crystal icing event, an uncommanded reduction in thrust, was able to be turned on and off by manipulating cloud TWC. A flight test point where no ice crystal icing event occurred was also duplicated in PSL. Physics based computational tools were successfully used to predict tunnel settings to induce ice buildup along the low pressure compression system flow path for several test points at incrementally lower altitudes, demonstrating that development of ice crystal icing scaling laws is potentially feasible. Analysis of PSL test data showed that uncommanded reduction in thrust occurs during ice crystal cloud on operation prior to fan speed reduction. This supports previous findings that the reduction of thrust for this test article is due to ice buildup leading to a restricted airflow from either physical or aerodynamic blockage in the engine core flow path.

Ice Crystal Icing↗
NASA NTRS2014

Validation Ice Crystal Icing Engine Test in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory at NASA Glenn Research Center

The Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) is an existing altitude simulation jet engine test facility located at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, OH. It was modified in 2012 with the integration of an ice crystal cloud generation system. This paper documents the inaugural ice crystal cloud test in PSL--the first ever full scale, high altitude ice crystal cloud turbofan engine test to be conducted in a ground based facility. The test article was a Lycoming ALF502-R5 high bypass turbofan engine, serial number LF01. The objectives of the test were to validate the PSL ice crystal cloud calibration and engine testing methodologies by demonstrating the capability to calibrate and duplicate known flight test events that occurred on the same LF01 engine and to generate engine data to support fundamental and computational research to investigate and better understand the physics of ice crystal icing in a turbofan engine environment while duplicating known revenue service events and conducting test points while varying facility and engine parameters. During PSL calibration testing it was discovered than heated probes installed through tunnel sidewalls experienced ice buildup aft of their location due to ice crystals impinging upon them, melting and running back. Filtered city water was used in the cloud generation nozzle system to provide ice crystal nucleation sites. This resulted in mineralization forming on flow path hardware that led to a chronic degradation of performance during the month long test. Lacking internal flow path cameras, the response of thermocouples along the flow path was interpreted as ice building up. Using this interpretation, a strong correlation between total water content (TWC) and a weaker correlation between median volumetric diameter (MVD) of the ice crystal cloud and the rate of ice buildup along the instrumented flow path was identified. For this test article the engine anti-ice system was required to be turned on before ice crystal icing would occur. The ice crystal icing event, an uncommanded reduction in thrust, was able to be turned on and off by manipulating cloud TWC. A flight test point where no ice crystal icing event occurred was also duplicated in PSL. Physics based computational tools were successfully used to predict tunnel settings to induce ice buildup along the low pressure compression system flow path for several test points at incrementally lower altitudes, demonstrating that development of ice crystal icing scaling laws is potentially feasible. Analysis of PSL test data showed that uncommanded reduction in thrust occurs during ice crystal cloud on operation prior to fan speed reduction. This supports previous findings that the reduction of thrust for this test article is due to ice buildup leading to a restricted airflow from either physical or aerodynamic blockage in the engine core flow path.

Turbofan Engine↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Are You In or Out: the Influence of Sea Ice Drift on Sea Ice Survivability

The state of Arctic sea ice influences aspects of many global systems including ecosystems, economies, geopolitics, and climate. And, it is in severe decline. Numerous studies have considered the factors that influence Arctic sea ice decline using monthly mean or gridded data. However, these methods struggle to cleanly separate the influences on sea ice melt because the sea ice cover is always moving; thus, different sea ice floes and sea ice regimes constitute the monthly average sea ice state within the Eulerian frame. This study uses a LaGrangian sea ice parcel tracking satellite database to investigate the factors that influence sea ice parcel survivability. The concept of sea ice survivability is defined as the likelihood that a sea ice parcel will last through the summer melt season. Survivability can be stratified in many ways to analyze how it changes as a function of sea ice regime, region, and sea ice characteristics. How is the survivability of first year (FY) and multi-year (MY) ice classes influenced by sea ice motion? This is the central question addressed in this presentation. Specifically, this analysis determines sea ice survivability as a function of distance traveled by sea ice parcels and compares the survivability statistics for sea ice parcels that stay in their starting region versus those that leave their starting region. The preliminary results indicate that the influence of sea ice movement on survivability depends strongly on which region the sea ice resides in at the beginning of the growth season. Lastly, we find substantial inter-annual variability in the regional distribution of sea ice survivability that seems to be strongly linked to sea ice parcel drift between regions of the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, we use these results to discuss the potential contribution of changes in sea ice motion on the observed slowdown in Arctic sea ice extent loss.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. The PSL test has helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. The results from the computer simulation identified prevalent trends in wet bulb temperature, ice particle melt ratio, and engine inlet temperature as a function of altitude for predicting engine icing risk due to ice crystal ingestion.

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Theory for the Balance between Warm Rain and Ice Crystal Processes of Precipitation in Mixed-Phase Clouds

Abstract Mixed-phase clouds contain both supercooled cloud liquid and ice crystals. In principle, precipitation may be initiated either by the liquid phase or by the ice phase. Ice crystals may grow by vapor diffusion to become snow (“ice crystal process”), forming “cold” precipitation. Equally, cloud droplets, when large enough, coalesce to form “warm” precipitation by the “warm rain process.” Warm rain could be supercooled and freeze as “warm” graupel. In the present paper, a new simplified theoretical analysis is provided to examine the microphysical system consisting of three species of hydrometeor, namely, cloud liquid, “cold ice” (crystals, snow), and “warm rain” (frozen or supercooled). This is obtained by nondimensionalizing and simplifying the evolution equations for the mass of each species. Analytical formulas are given for equilibria. Feedback analysis shows that the sign of the feedback is linked to the abundance of precipitation, with a neutral surface in the 3D phase space. The system’s precipitation amount explodes while in the initial unstable regime, crossing the neutral surface and approaching the equilibrium point that is a stable attractor. Positive and negative feedbacks are elucidated. In a standard case, the cold ice mass is about 1000 times larger than the warm rain mass. To illustrate the physical behavior of the theory, sensitivity tests are performed with respect to environmental conditions (e.g., aerosol, updraft speed) and microphysical parameters (e.g., riming and sedimentation rates for cold ice). Cold ice prevails, especially in fast ascent, due to its low bulk density, favoring slow sedimentation and a wide cross-sectional area for riming. Significance Statement The theory elucidates how the ice phase can prevail in the precipitation from any mixed-phase clouds with supercooled cloud liquid and crystals. The ice phase radically suppresses cloud liquid by riming when active and “wins” the competition against coalescence. This prevalence of ice is shown to arise from the low bulk density of snow. The cloud is viewed as a system of negative and positive feedbacks that prevail in realms of stability and instability in a 3D phase space.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Variations in the Sea Ice Edge and the Marginal Ice Zone on Different Spatial Scales as Observed from Different Satellite Sensor

The Marginal sea Ice Zone (MIZ) and the sea ice edge are the most dynamic areas of the sea ice cover. Knowledge of the sea ice edge location is vital for routing shipping in the polar regions. The ice edge is the location of recurrent plankton blooms, and is the habitat for a number of animals, including several which are under severe ecological threat. Polar lows are known to preferentially form along the sea ice edge because of induced atmospheric baroclinicity, and the ice edge is also the location of both vertical and horizontal ocean currents driven by thermal and salinity gradients. Finally, sea ice is both a driver and indicator of climate change and monitoring the position of the ice edge accurately over long time periods enables assessment of the impact of global and regional warming near the poles. Several sensors are currently in orbit that can monitor the sea ice edge. These sensors, though, have different spatial resolutions, different limitations, and different repeat frequencies. Satellite passive microwave sensors can monitor the ice edge on a daily or even twice-daily basis, albeit with low spatial resolution - 25 km for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) or 12.5 km for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). Although special methods exist that allow the detection of the sea ice edge at a quarter of that nominal resolution (PSSM). Visible and infrared data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provide daily coverage at 1 km and 250 m, respectively, but the surface observations me limited to cloud-free periods. The Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) has a resolution of 15 to 30 m but is limited to cloud-free periods as well, and does not provide daily coverage. Imagery from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instruments has resolutions of tens of meters to 100 m, and can be used to distinguish open water and sea ice on the basis of surface and volume scattering characteristics. The Canadian RADARSAT C-band SAR provides data that cover the Arctic Ocean and the MIZ every 3 days. A change-point detection approach was utilized to obtain an ice edge estimate from the RADARSAT data The Quickscat scatterometer provides ice edge information with a resolution of a few kilometers on a near-daily basis. During portions of March and April of 2003 a series of aircraft flights were conducted over the ice edge in the Bering Sea carrying the Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer (PSR), which provides spectral coverage identical with the AMSR-E instrument at a resolution of 500 meters. In this study we investigated these different data sets and analyzed differences in their definition of the sea ice edge and the marginal ice zone and how these differences as well as their individual limitations affect the monitoring of the ice edge dynamics. We also examined how the nature of the sea ice edge, including its location, compactness and shape, changes over the seasons. Our approach was based on calculation of distances between ice edges derived from the satellite and aircraft data sets listed above as well as spectral coherence methods and shape parameters such as tortuosity, curvature, and fractional dimension.

Markus, Thorsten↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sea-ice thickness from field measurements in the northwestern Barents Sea: SEA-ICE THICKNESS, NW BARENTS SEA

The Barents Sea is one of the fastest changing regions of the Arctic, and has experienced the strongest decline in winter-time sea-ice area in the Arctic, at 22364% decade21. Sea-ice thickness in the Barents Sea is not well studied. We present two previously unpublished helicopter-borne electromagnetic(HEM) ice thickness measurements from the northwestern Barents Sea acquired in March 2003 and 2014.The HEM data are compared to ice thickness calculated from ice draft measured by ULS deployed between1994 and 1996. These data show that ice thickness varies greatly from year to year; influenced by the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that govern local formation vs long-range advection. In a year with a large inflow of sea-ice from the Arctic Basin, the Barents Sea ice cover is dominated by thick multiyear ice;as was the case in 2003 and 1995. In a year with an ice cover that was mainly grown in situ, the ice will be thin and mechanically unstable; as was the case in 2014. The HEM data allow us to explore the spatial and temporal variability in ice thickness. In 2003 the dominant ice class was more than 2 years old; and modal sea-ice thickness varied regionally from 0.6 to 1.4 m, with the thinner ice being either irst-year ice, or multiyear ice which had come into contact with warm Atlantic water. In 2014 the ice cover was predominantly locally grown ice less than 1 month old (regional modes of 0.5–0.8 m). These two situations represent two extremes of a range of possible ice thickness distributions that can present very different conditions for shipping traffic; or have a different impact on heat transport from ocean to atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Time-Varying Ice Sheet Mask: Implications on Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Crustal Uplift

Mass-balance estimates of the polar ice sheets presently rely on static ice masks to identify the area under investigation. However, the vintage of available ice masks can differ by more than a decade and the resolution of the imagery used to delineate ice extent can differ by an order of magnitude, despite evidence of ongoing ice-sheet retreat. We show that using a fine resolution, time-varying ice mask significantly improves mass-balance estimates of the northwestern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet and affects interpretation of local crustal uplift. Accounting for ice margin retreat using a time-varying ice mask between 2003–2015 results in 1.0–6.8% less ice-sheet mass loss relative to assuming one of several existing static ice masks. This indicates that mass-balance estimates that use a static ice mask will progressively overestimate mass loss where the ice sheet is predominantly retreating, meaning a negative bias on mass-balance. This trend is anticipated to be amplified in a future warming scenario unless updated ice masks are incorporated. For altimetry-derived mass-balance estimates, this ice-mask induced bias approaches the magnitude of the ice-sheet-wide uncertainty presently associated with spatiotemporal variability in modeled firn compaction. Further, at five GNET stations, the ice-mask-induced bias is equivalent to 5–15% of the modeled uplift due to elastic deformation. Given present and projected negative trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass-balance and areal extent, we conclude that studies of its mass-balance should begin incorporating dynamic, periodically updated, fine-resolution ice masks. This methodological refinement will reduce bias in estimates of both ice-sheet mass-balance and crustal uplift.

Kristian K. Kjeldsen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observationally-Based Determination of the Arctic Sea Ice-Cloud Feedback Since 2000: Isolating the Arctic Cloud Response to Sea Ice Loss

Arctic sea ice responds to and drives Arctic climate change. The interactions between Arctic sea ice and clouds represent a mechanism through which sea ice can drive climate change. We composite active remote sensing satellite cloud properties for ice-free, marginal ice zone (MIZ), and ice-covered surfaces during MIZ crossing events to investigate the influence of the transition from an ice-covered to an ice-free surface on low-level clouds. We demonstrate that the event-based methodology controls for large-scale meteorological factors and isolates the sea ice effect on clouds. We find larger cloud fraction and total water content below ~1.5 km over ice-free relative to ice-covered surfaces during non-summer months, indicating a low-level cloud sensitivity to Arctic sea ice decline. During summer, results show larger cloud fraction and water content over ice-free surfaces, however the differences are statistically indistinguishable. Evidence is provided that atmospheric thermodynamic profile differences cause the cloud property differences, namely that ice-free footprints are warmer, moister, have more positive surface turbulent fluxes and are less stable than their ice-covered counterparts. Ice-free and ice-covered surface cloud property differences scale with surface temperature differences such that cloud property differences are only found in the presence of a surface temperature difference. We conclude that surface temperature differences modulate the cloud response to sea ice loss through influences on surface turbulent fluxes and lower tropospheric stability. The results imply a positive non-summer sea ice-cloud feedback and that up to a 0.02 cloud fraction and 0.05 g m 3 total water content increase in fall are due to the observed sea ice decline.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRS1988

An experimental and theoretical study of the ice accretion process during artificial and natural icing conditions

Real-time measurements of ice growth during artificial and natural icing conditions were conducted using an ultrasonic pulse-echo technique. This technique allows ice thickness to be measured with an accuracy of + or - 0.5 mm; in addition, the ultrasonic signal characteristics may be used to detect the presence of liquid on the ice surface and hence discern wet and dry ice growth behavior. Ice growth was measured on the stagnation line of a cylinder exposed to artificial icing conditions in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), and similarly for a cylinder exposed in flight to natural icing conditions. Ice thickness was observed to increase approximately linearly with exposure time during the initial icing period. The ice accretion rate was found to vary with cloud temperature during wet ice growth, and liquid runback from the stagnation region was inferred. A steady-state energy balance model for the icing surface was used to compare heat transfer characteristics for IRT and natural icing conditions. Ultrasonic measurements of wet and dry ice growth observed in the IRT and in flight were compared with icing regimes predicted by a series of heat transfer coefficients. The heat transfer magnitude was generally inferred to be higher for the IRT than for the natural icing conditions encountered in flight. An apparent variation in the heat transfer magnitude was also observed for flights conducted through different natural icing-cloud formations.

Kirby, Mark S.↗