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Optimal experimental design: Formulations and computations

Questions of ‘how best to acquire data’ are essential to modelling and prediction in the natural and social sciences, engineering applications, and beyond. Optimal experimental design (OED) formalizes these questions and creates computational methods to answer them. This article presents a systematic survey of modern OED, from its foundations in classical design theory to current research involving OED for complex models. We begin by reviewing criteria used to formulate an OED problem and thus to encode the goal of performing an experiment. We emphasize the flexibility of the Bayesian and decision-theoretic approach, which encompasses information-based criteria that are well-suited to nonlinear and non-Gaussian statistical models. We then discuss methods for estimating or bounding the values of these design criteria; this endeavour can be quite challenging due to strong nonlinearities, high parameter dimension, large per-sample costs, or settings where the model is implicit. A complementary set of computational issues involves optimization methods used to find a design; we discuss such methods in the discrete (combinatorial) setting of observation selection and in settings where an exact design can be continuously parametrized. Finally we present emerging methods for sequential OED that build non-myopic design policies, rather than explicit designs; these methods naturally adapt to the outcomes of past experiments in proposing new experiments, while seeking coordination among all experiments to be performed. Throughout, we highlight important open questions and challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Sylvester-preconditioned adaptive-rank implicit time integrators for advection-diffusion equations with variable coefficients

Here, we consider the adaptive-rank integration of multi-dimensional time-dependent advection-diffusion partial differential equations (PDEs) with variable coefficients. We employ a standard finite-difference method for spatial discretization coupled with high-order diagonally implicit Runge-Kutta temporal schemes. The discrete equation is a generalized Sylvester equation (GSE), which we solve with a projection-based adaptive-rank algorithm structured around two key strategies: (i) constructing dimension-wise subspaces using a novel atypical extended Krylov strategy, and (ii) efficiently solving the basis coefficient matrix with a preconditioned GMRES solver. The low-rank decomposition is performed in 2D using SVD and with high-order SVD (HOSVD) in 3D to represent the tensor in a compressed Tucker format. For d-dimensional problems (here, d = 2 or 3), the computational complexity and memory storage of the approach are found numerically to scale as and $\mathscr{O}(Nr^2) + \mathscr{O} (r^{d+1})$ and $\mathscr{O}(Nr) + \mathscr{O} (r^{d})$, respectively, with the one-dimensional resolution and the maximal rank during the Krylov iteration (which we find to be largely independent of on our numerical examples). We present numerical examples that illustrate the advertised properties of the algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Stage-local partitioned two-step runge-kutta methods for large systems of ordinary differential equations

We introduce stage-local partitioned two-step Runge-Kutta methods are an extension of standard two-step Runge-Kutta methods, which are an alternative to the standard additive two-step Runge-Kutta methods currently existing in the literature. Furthermore, these new schemes are designed with an eye towards truly N-partitioned systems and leverage local stage approximations to make several computationally interesting approximations viable. Specifically, the focus on local stage approximations makes possible the construction of truly asynchronous schemes, in the parallel sense, possible. In addition, we show that an implicit-explicit approach to these schemes can lead to methods that require the inversion of only local nonlinear systems.

Applied Dynamical Systems

thornado+FLASH-X: A Hybrid Discontinuous Galerkin–Implicit-explicit and Finite-volume Framework for Neutrino-radiation Hydrodynamics in Core-collapse Supernovae

We present neutrino-transport algorithms implemented in the toolkit for high-order neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics (thornado) and their coupling to self-gravitating hydrodynamics within the adaptive mesh refinement–based multiphysics simulation framework FLASH-X. thornado, developed primarily for simulations of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), employs a spectral, six-species two-moment formulation with algebraic closure and special-relativistic observer corrections accurate to $\mathcal{O}(v/c)$, and uses discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods for phase-space discretization combined with implicit-explicit time stepping. A key development is a nonlinear neutrino–matter coupling algorithm based on nested fixed-point iteration with Anderson acceleration, enabling fully implicit treatment of collisional processes, including energy-coupling interactions such as neutrino–electron scattering and pair production. Coupling to finite-volume (FV) hydrodynamics is achieved through a hybrid DG-FV representation of the fluid variables and operator-split evolution within FLASH-X. The implementation is verified using basic transport tests with idealized opacities and relaxation and deleptonization problems with tabulated microphysics. Spherically symmetric CCSN simulations demonstrate accuracy and robustness of the coupled scheme, including close agreement with the CCSN simulation code Chimera. An axisymmetric CCSN simulation further demonstrates the viability of DG-based neutrino transport for multidimensional supernova modeling within FLASH-X. thornado’s neutrino-transport solver is GPU-enabled using OpenMP offloading or OpenACC, and all CCSN applications included in this work use the GPU implementation. Together, these results establish a foundation for future enhancements in physics fidelity, numerical algorithms, and computational performance, for increasingly realistic large-scale CCSN simulations.

Endeve, Eirik [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

A Full-Induction Magnetohydrodynamics Solver for Liquid Metal Fusion Blankets in Vertex-CFD

Multiphysics modeling of liquid metal fusion blankets, which produce tritium and convert energy of neutrons created via fusion reactions into heat, is crucial for predicting performance, ensuring structural integrity, and optimizing energy production. While traditional blanket modeling of liquid metal flows during normal steady operating conditions commonly employs the inductionless approximation of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, transient scenarios, when the plasma-confining magnetic field varies on millisecond time scales, require a full-induction MHD approach that dynamically evolves the magnetic field via the time-dependent induction equation. This paper presents the formulation, implementation, and initial verification of a full-induction MHD solver integrated within the open-source Vertex-CFD framework, which aims to achieve tight multiphysics coupling, a flexible software design enabling easy extension and addition of physics models, and performance portability across computing platforms. The solver utilizes finite element spatial discretization, implicit Runge–Kutta time integration, and an inexact Newton method to solve the resulting discrete nonlinear system, leveraging Trilinos packages for efficient computation. Verification against selected benchmark problems demonstrates accuracy and robustness of the solver. Furthermore, when the solver is applied to an idealized blanket model in 2.5D and full 3D, results obtained with Vertex-CFD are in good agreement with recently published quasi-2D simulations. These findings establish a computational foundation for future simulations of transient MHD phenomena in liquid metal blankets with Vertex-CFD, and open avenues for future extensions and performance optimizations.

Endeve, Eirik [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000312519507)

Confinement and String Breaking in the Compact Abelian Higgs Model

While real-time simulation of Quantum Chromodynamics remains technologically out of reach, simplified models for studying elements of QCD phenomenology abound. This work presents a simple model, a spin-1 truncation of the Compact Abelian Higgs Model simulated on qutrit sites, in which confinement and string breaking is accessible to current simulation methods. In the low-energy regime of 1+1D scalar electrodynamics, the heavy modes are integrated out, producing a spin chain effective Hamiltonian in which Gauss' law is implicitly satisfied. We study the spectrum of string-like excitations using DMRG methods on the order of 100 sites. We demonstrate that an added, local chemical potential, playing a role analogous to external charges, permits parameter-dependent measurements of physical features of interest like the string tension and effective meson mass. Varying the chemical potential also permits a characterization of string stability not assessed in prior studies of confining lattice models.

Senseman, Blake [Iowa U.]

Fast HARDI Uncertainty Quantification and Visualization with Spherical Sampling

In this paper, we study uncertainty quantification and visualization of orientation distribution functions (ODF), which corresponds to the diffusion profile of high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data. The shape inclusion probability (SIP) function is the state‐of‐the‐art method for capturing the uncertainty of ODF ensembles. The current method of computing the SIP function with a volumetric basis exhibits high computational and memory costs, which can be a bottleneck to integrating uncertainty into HARDI visualization techniques and tools. We propose a novel spherical sampling framework for faster computation of the SIP function with lower memory usage and increased accuracy. In particular, we propose direct extraction of SIP isosurfaces, which represent confidence intervals indicating spatial uncertainty of HARDI glyphs, by performing spherical sampling of ODFs. Our spherical sampling approach requires much less sampling than the state‐of‐the‐art volume sampling method, thus providing significantly enhanced performance, scalability, and the ability to perform implicit ray tracing. Our experiments demonstrate that the SIP isosurfaces extracted with our spherical sampling approach can achieve up to 8164× speedup, 37282× memory reduction, and 50.2% less SIP isosurface error compared to the classical volume sampling approach. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods through experiments on synthetic and human‐brain HARDI datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

One-sweep moment-based semi-implicit-explicit integration for gray thermal radiation transport

Thermal radiation transport (TRT) is a time dependent, high dimensional partial integro-differential equation. In practical applications such as inertial confinement fusion, TRT is coupled to other physics such as hydrodynamics, plasmas, etc., and the timescales one is interested in capturing are often much slower than the radiation timescale. As a result, TRT is treated implicitly, and due to its stiffness and high dimensionality, is often a dominant computational cost in multiphysics simulations. Here we develop a new approach for implicit-explicit (IMEX) integration of gray TRT in the deterministic SN setting, which requires only one sweep per stage, with the simplest first-order method requiring only one sweep per time step. The partitioning of equations is done via a moment-based high-order low-order formulation of TRT, where the streaming operator and first two moments are used to capture the asymptotic stiff regimes of the streaming limit and diffusion limit. Absorption-reemission is treated explicitly, and although stiff, is sufficiently damped by the implicit solve that we achieve stable accurate time integration without incorporating the coupling of the high order and low order equations implicitly. Due to nonlinear coupling of the high-order and low-order equations through temperature-dependent opacities, to facilitate IMEX partitioning and higher-order methods, we use a semi-implicit integration approach amenable to nonlinear partitions. In conclusion, results are demonstrated on thick Marshak and crooked pipe benchmark problems, demonstrating orders of magnitude improvement in accuracy and wallclock compared with the standard first-order implicit integration typically used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Semi-Lagrangian nodal discontinuous Galerkin method for the BGK model

In this work, we propose a semi-Lagrangian (SL) nodal discontinuous Galerkin (DG) solver for the BGK equation. The BGK model was introduced by Bhatnagar, Gross, and Krook [1] as a relaxation model for the fundamental Boltzmann equation [5], which describes the kinetic dynamic of rarefied gases with a probability distribution function. The challenges of designing efficient numerical schemes for the Boltzmann equation mainly come from its high dimensionality and complicated nonlinear collision operator. The BGK model gains interests since it has much lower computational cost, due to the relatively simple structure of the relaxation operator in replacement of the collision operator, while simultaneously preserving several important physical properties, such as macroscopic quantities and dissipation of entropy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Sparse chronology strategy for integrating seasonal energy storage in capacity expansion models

Here, this study develops the sparse chronology method to enhance the representative period framework in capacity expansion models, enabling the effective integration of long-duration energy storage modeling. Traditional representative period methods cannot capture the state of charge of seasonal energy storage systems because they do not establish effective inter-day linkages to connect the state of charge between periods. The sparse chronology approach addresses this limitation by establishing inter-day linkages that allow state of charge to shift inter-seasonally. At the same time, it groups identical representative days into partitions, applying constraints sparsely and implicitly to reduce computational load further. Validation results demonstrate that this method successfully simulates long-duration energy storage patterns, achieving close alignment with a continuous yearly benchmark model, with seasonal trends and state of charge cycles clearly represented. The computational load analysis reveals that the sparse chronology method efficiently applies constraints on maximum and minimum state of charge limits within the representative day framework, eliminating the need for detailed constraints on each individual day. By partitioning representative days and constraining only the start and end of each partition, the method significantly decreases computational requirements. Simulation results show that sparse chronology closely approximates the continuous yearly method's accuracy, even with as few as 20 representative days, achieving correlation values with the benchmark of nearly 0.9 in state of charge plots. Furthermore, it maintains computational efficiency, requiring only 4 % of the solver time compared to the continuous yearly method with 20 representative days. This approach allows capacity expansion models to incorporate long-duration energy storage with high temporal, spatial, and technological resolution, enabling more detailed modeling for large-scale power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Towards dynamical low-rank approximation for neutrino kinetic equations. Part I: Analysis of an idealized relaxation model

Dynamical low-rank approximation (DLRA) is an emerging tool for reducing computational costs and provides memory savings when solving high-dimensional problems. Here, in this work, we propose and analyze a semi-implicit dynamical low-rank discontinuous Galerkin (DLR-DG) method for the space homogeneous kinetic equation with a relaxation operator, modeling the emission and absorption of particles by a background medium. Both DLRA and the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) scheme can be formulated as Galerkin equations. To ensure their consistency, a weighted DLRA is introduced so that the resulting DLR-DG solution is a solution to the fully discrete DG scheme in a subspace of the standard DG solution space. Similar to the standard DG method, we show that the proposed DLR-DG method is well-posed. We also identify conditions such that the DLR-DG solution converges to the equilibrium. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Implicit neural representations for experimental steering of advanced experiments

Scattering measurements using electrons, neutrons, or photons are essential for obtaining microscopic insights into materials. However, limited facility availability and high-dimensional scattering data necessitate more efficient experimental steering techniques. Here, we report a machine learning method that guides scattering data collection and facilitates real-time estimation of model parameters, given a reliable forward model to simulate experimental signals. We employ implicit neural representations as efficient surrogates that link model parameters with simulated spectroscopies. This enables a Bayesian optimal experimental design framework to estimate the probability distributions of parameters from high-dimensional scattering data. We demonstrate the proposed method using inelastic neutron scattering with simulated and real experimental data, highlighting the method’s ability to provide real-time parameter estimation with quantified uncertainties and to deliver informed experimental guidance that reduces experimental time while maximizing scientific output. This approach paves the way for accelerated discoveries in condensed matter through scattering measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Simulation of an inductively coupled plasma with a two-dimensional Darwin particle-in-cell code

A two-dimensional particle-in-cell code for the simulation of low-frequency electromagnetic processes in laboratory plasmas has been developed. The code uses the Darwin method omitting the electromagnetic wave propagation. The Darwin method separates the electric field into solenoidal and irrotational parts. The solenoidal electric field is calculated with a new algorithm based on the equation for the electric field vorticity. The system of linear equations in the new algorithm is readily solved using a standard iterative method. The irrotational electric field is the electrostatic field calculated with the direct implicit algorithm. The code is verified by reproducing the two-stream instability, electron electromagnetic waves, and shear Alfvén waves. The code is applied to simulate an inductively coupled plasma with the driving current flowing around the plasma region. In this simulation, a ring of dense plasma forms at the initial stage but then the density becomes maximal in the center and decays monotonically toward the walls. The skin effect is in the transitional mode between local and non-local, and the electron velocity distribution function is non-Maxwellian.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Excited-state uncertainties in lattice-QCD calculations of hadron masses and scattering phase shifts

Lattice QCD has historically produced energy results interpretable as either estimates relying on implicit assumptions about asymptotic behavior or one-sided upper bounds. New Lanczos methods providing two-sided bounds with less-restrictive assumptions are introduced and quantified in a high-statistics calculation with unphysical quark masses. Two-sided bounds without spectral assumptions provide sub-percent constraints on the nucleon mass. Other bounds, which assume all states in a given energy window are resolved, provide meaningful two-sided constraints on nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts.

Detmold, William [MIT, Cambridge, CTP]

Forecasting Dark Matter Subhalo Constraints from Stellar Streams using Implicit Likelihood Inference

The evidence for dark matter (DM) remains compelling, although attempts to understand its particle nature remain inconclusive. One promising method to study DM is detecting DM subhalos through their gravitational interactions with stellar streams. In this study, we apply Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to constrain subhalo interaction parameters, including mass, scale radius, velocity, and encounter geometry, from stellar stream kinematics. We generate particle spray simulations based on the Lagrange Cloud stripping technique, focusing on the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream as a test case. We train multiple NPE models across multiple observational scenarios, quantifying how kinematic completeness affects inference and forecasting constraints from upcoming surveys including LSST, 4MOST, and 10-year Gaia data. Our results demonstrate that NPE can produce accurate and well-calibrated posteriors. In the idealized case with full 6D coordinates, we achieve subhalo mass uncertainties of 15-20% for a $10^7 \, \mathrm{M_\odot}$ subhalo, with 5D coordinates (excluding radial velocities) achieving similar performance. Under realistic observational conditions, mass uncertainties range from 50% (present-day) to 20-40% (future scenarios), with comparable performance between the photometric-only LSST sample and a smaller sample that includes Gaia proper motions and 4MOST radial velocities. Most notably, we find that velocity bimodality emerges when phase space is poorly sampled, whether due to missing kinematic information or limited stellar tracers. Combining large photometric samples with targeted spectroscopic follow-up can effectively resolves this degeneracy. These results demonstrate the power of implicit likelihood inference for optimizing stellar stream observational strategies and forecasting DM subhalo constraints from upcoming surveys.

Nguyen, Tri [Northwestern U. (main); SkAI, Chicago

Asymptotic-preserving semi-implicit finite volume scheme for extended magnetohydrodynamics

A Finite Volume (FV) scheme is developed for solving the extended magnetohydrodynamic (XMHD) equations, yielding accurate results in the ideal, resistive, and Hall MHD limits. This is accomplished by first re-writing the XMHD equations such that it allows the algorithm to retain the use of ideal MHD Riemann solvers and the constrained transport method to preserve divergence-free magnetic fields. Incorporation of electron inertia and displacement current introduces additional numerical stiffness which motivates a semi-implicit FV scheme that re-formulates the XMHD model as a relaxation system. The equations are then advanced in time using an explicit 2nd-order Runge–Kutta scheme with operator splitting applied to the implicit source term updates at each sub-stage. For additional numerical stability, a density-dependent slope limiter is implemented to increase flux diffusivity at low density regions where non-ideal effects become significant. The algorithm is subsequently implemented in a scalable adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework. As the new algorithm retains many aspects of the ideal MHD formulations, it asymptotes naturally to the ideal MHD limit. Moreover, it shows promising results at the resistive and Hall MHD limits. This is verified against reference test problems for ideal, resistive and Hall MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Absorbing boundary conditions in material point method adopting perfectly matched layer theory

This study focuses on solving the numerical challenges of imposing absorbing boundary conditions for dynamic simulations in the material point method (MPM). To attenuate elastic waves leaving the computational domain, the current work integrates the Perfectly Matched Layer (PML) theory into the implicit MPM framework. The proposed approach introduces absorbing particles surrounding the computational domain that efficiently absorb outgoing waves and reduce reflections, allowing for accurate modeling of wave propagation and its further impact on geotechnical slope stability analysis. The study also includes several benchmark tests to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, such as several types of impulse loading and symmetric and asymmetric base shaking. The conducted numerical tests also demonstrate the ability to handle large deformation problems, including the failure of elasto-plastic soils under gravity and dynamic excitations. The findings extend the capability of MPM in simulating continuous analysis of earthquake-induced landslides, from shaking to failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES