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Subject-specific modeling framework for particle deposition using computational fluid dynamics

Quantifying particle deposition and dose in the respiratory tract requires a physiologically realistic representation and reproducible computational workflows. However, existing modeling frameworks, such as the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) compartmental models and the Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) tool, lack detailed deposition profiles and subject-specific capabilities. The combination of advances in computer vision algorithms applied to the respiratory tract and Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics (CFPD) allows high-fidelity simulations of particle behavior in anatomically accurate geometries derived from individual CT scans. The segmentation, preprocessing, and file preparation task for a CFPD simulation was often time-consuming, and no prior studies to-date have yet presented a fully automated framework. This work presents a fully automated workflow to obtain individualized particle deposition profiles in the human respiratory tract. The pipeline starts with segmenting upper and lower airway geometries using morphological and deep learning-based methods, generating three-dimensional (3D) models from CT imaging data. Next, a series of algorithms are presented to quality check and prepare the 3D geometry for a CFD or CFPD simulation. The preprocessing step includes correcting geometric artifacts, enforcing a physically consistent mesh, and automatically identifying and capping multiple outlets, which is required for CFD/CFPD simulations. These processed models are then input into open-source (OpenFOAM) or commercial (StarCCM+) CFD solvers, where flow and transient particle transport equations — including turbulence and particle–wall interactions are solved under realistic breathing conditions. Finally, the resulting particle deposition profiles can be integrated with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes and state-of-the-art computational phantoms to assess organ-specific absorbed doses in scenarios of radioactive aerosol inhalation. The presented work streamlines respiratory tract segmentation, preprocessing for CFD/CFPD simulations, and integration with dose assessment workflows, reducing manual intervention and improving access to high-fidelity, subject-specific modeling. The high precision in predicted particle deposition and dose distributions can improve personalized treatment strategies in respiratory medicine and refine dose estimates for radiation protection.

AI↗

RAIS ICRP 107 Dose Conversion Factors for Radionuclides

Radionuclide dose conversion factors, also known as dose coefficients, are used for radionuclide dose calculations. Routes included are oral, inhalation, and external exposure. Separate datasets are maintained for ICRP 107, 60, and 30. The dose conversion factors from the ICRP 107 (https://rais.ornl.gov/cgibin/tools/TOX_search?select=rad107) are updated values from FGR 13 supplement using ICRP 107 decay data. The derivation and values are in “Calculations of Slope Factors and Dose Coefficients” (ORNL, 2014).

Noto, Katie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

RAIS ICRP 30 Dose Conversion Factors for Radionuclides

Radionuclide dose conversion factors, also known as dose coefficients, are used for radionuclide dose calculations. Routes included are oral, inhalation, and external exposure. Separate datasets are maintained for ICRP 107, 60, and 30. The dose conversion factors from ICRP 30 (https://rais.ornl.gov/cgibin/tools/TOX_search?select=rad30) can be found in FGR 11. Results from all three tools can be downloaded in .xlsx format.

Noto, Katie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

RAIS ICRP 60 Dose Conversion Factors for Radionuclides

Radionuclide dose conversion factors, also known as dose coefficients, are used for radionuclide dose calculations. Routes included are oral, inhalation, and external exposure. Separate datasets are maintained for ICRP 107, 60, and 30. The dose conversion factors from ICRP 60 (https://rais.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/tools/TOX_search?select=rad60) can be found in FGR 12. Results from all three tools can be downloaded in .xlsx format.

Noto, Katie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

Maxine Onsite: Estimating Dose from Chronic Atmospheric Radioactive Releases

Maxine Onsite: Developed to estimate dose to individuals who are working onsite but are not site employees. Follows the methodologies discussed in US NRC Regulatory Guides 1.109 and 1.111 to determine dose from a chronic atmospheric release. Determines the dose given relative air concentrations and deposition concentrations as input. We look at four locations onsite that may be accessed by members of the public. To show compliance with the EPA and DOE public dose limit of 10 mrem/yr, determining who is a member of the public or a worker onsite is necessary. SRS has defined a member of the public for NESHAPS and DOE O 458.1. Maxine Onsite runs on Microsoft Windows Operating System through a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Input from the user includes parameters that are variable such as air concentrations, and fixed, such as distance to the receptor and elemental iodine fraction. Maxine Onsite was developed from Maxine which is a program meant to calculate dose to the MEI via three pathways, external, inhalation, and ingestion. Maxine Onsite is meant for looking at the exposure through the external and inhalation pathways only, no local food production onsite. The ways that Maxine Onsite is used to calculate the dose to the MEI includes the following: - Determining the respective air concentration values at each location using distances from the release stack; - Breathing rates for the MEI; - Determining the amount of time the MEI is outside; - Determining the plume travel time. The following relative air and ground deposition values for proper execution of the spreadsheet come from MAXDOSE-SR and are needed to accurately determine the dose to the MEI: relative air concentration, relative air concentration decayed by 2.26 days, relative air concentration decayed and depleted for 8 days, and relative deposition. Test cases were designed, developed, and executed to determine the accuracy of Maxine Onsite, which were verified additionally through hand calculations. Several changes were made for testing, including varying air concentrations, distances, breathing rates, and shielding factors. Each test case was then verified through hand calculations to assure the accuracy of the calculated doses. The results from the test cases, as well as the default parameters, can be used for benchmarking Maxine Onsite in the future. Maxine Onsite performs as expected and produces correct and accurate results at each of the different locations onsite (TRL, B-Area Barracks, SRELCC, and Gunsite 51) for varying test cases. The input required by the user is minimal and includes the results of the dose to the MEI on the first page for ease of access. Future plans for Maxine Onsite include adding in the ingestion pathway and adding in atmospheric dispersion estimates to the spreadsheet.

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The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts

Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Verification of RESRAD-BUILD Code Version 4

This report documents the verification of the RESRAD-BUILD code, Version 4.0, which was released on December 22, 2022. Two earlier reports verifying Versions 3.0 and 3.1, respectively, were published in 2001 (Kamboj, et al. 2001) and 2003 (Tetra Tech NUS 2003). Version 4.0 of the RESRAD-BUILD code has many new features and modeling enhancements over the earlier versions, including the previously released Version 3.5. Chapter 2 of this report focuses on verifying the external dose and risk modeling for point, line, area, and volume sources, as well as for floor deposition. Besides verification, the external radiation doses calculated by RESRAD-BUILD were also benchmarked with those calculated by the MCNP code (Briemeister 1993). Section J.3 of the RESRAD-BUILD User’s Manual Vol. 1 (Yu et al. 2022) documents the results of that benchmarking effort. Chapter 3 of this report focuses on verifying the ventilation modeling, from checking the remaining source inventory, releases of radionuclides to the air, air concentrations and deposited floor concentrations over time, to the radiation dose and risk associated with inhalation, ingestion, and air submersion, with and without vacuuming. The verification efforts involve designing spreadsheets to perform calculations the same as or like those performed by the RESRAD-BUILD code and then comparing the spreadsheet results with those produced by the code. When the results agree or the differences are within acceptable range, the accuracy of model implementation in the code is verified. In addition to model implementation, the implementation of key functions and features that facilitate the modeling or the use of the code were also verified during the release testing of the code. Appendix A presents the test cases developed for these verification testing, and Appendix B presents the testing results that verify proper implementation of key functions and features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air Exchange Rate Impact on Activity Equilibrium Factors and Inhalation Fractional Equilibrium Factors for Rn, Xe, Kr, Ar, Ne, and Their Progeny in Vapor Intrusion, Risk, and Dose Models

Exposure to the radioactive noble gasses, especially radon, is of high concern and poses a significant risk to humans in an indoor air environment as the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States. To evaluate and minimize the risks posed by these gasses, it is important to understand their radiological and physical properties. The EPA’s Radon Vapor Intrusion Screening Level (RVISL) calculator calculates indoor air RVISLs based on target working levels (WLs), target excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), and annual dose limits for the actinon (Rn-219), thoron (Rn-220), and radon (Rn-222) decay series. The RVISLs are based on inhalation and submersion in gas cloud exposure routes for residential and commercial settings. The RVISLs are analogous to preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) and dose compliance concentrations (DCCs), where the isotope-specific values are in units of activity concentration (activity per unit volume). If the concentration of a parent isotope of radon or its progeny is found to exceed the RVISL, then further action to ensure cleanup of the contaminant may be necessary. In residential and commercial settings, the RVISLs will vary based on the air exchange rate present. The EPA’s Radionuclide PRG and DCC Calculators also assess the risk/dose from noble gases in the air due to household use of water like showering. In this study, a computational method in MATLAB was developed to determine the impact of the air exchange rate on the activity equilibrium factor (A eq ) and the inhalation fractional equilibrium factor (F eq ). Both factors are values that reflect the equilibrium concentrations of progeny to their parent in the air. These factors have a direct impact on the RVISL, PRG, and DCC calculations of WL, ELCR, and annual dose, respectively. This study builds on a previous report that only focused on actinon, thoron, and radon by revisiting the original A eq and F eq calculation methods, as well as including the values for the Rn-207, Rn-209, Rn-210, Rn-211, Rn-215, Rn-216, Rn-217, Rn-218, Rn-223, Ne-24, Ar-42, Ar-43, Ar-44, Kr-74, Kr-75, Kr-76, Kr-77, Kr-88, Kr-89, Xe-120, Xe-121, Xe-122, Xe-123, Xe-135m, and Xe-138 decay chains, which are not currently available in literature. The EPA’s RVISL calculator will be updated to include the new A eq and F eq values for the actinon, thoron, and radon decay chains, while the rest of the calculators will incorporate all the new A eq and F eq values as appropriate.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Translating nanoparticle dosimetry from conventional in vitro systems to occupational inhalation exposures

As encouraged by Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century, researchers increasingly apply high-throughput in vitro approaches to identify and characterize nanoparticle hazards, including conventional aqueous cell culture systems to assess respiratory hazards. Translating nanoparticle dose from conventional toxicity testing systems to relevant human exposures remains a major challenge for assessing occupational risk of nanoparticle exposures. Here, we explored existing computational tools and data available to translate nanoparticle dose metrics from cellular test systems to inhalation exposures of silver nanoparticles in humans. We used the Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) Model to predict deposition of humans exposed to 20 and 110 nm silver nanoparticles at 0.9 µg/m3 over an 8 hr period, the proposed a National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) recommended exposure limit (REL). MPPD predicts 1.88 and 0.98 µg of silver deposited in an 8 hr period for 20 and 110 nm nanoparticles, respectively, with 20 nm particles displaying nearly 11-fold higher total surface area deposited. Peak nanoparticle concentrations occurred more proximal in the pulmonary tract compared to mass deposition patterns (generation 5 vs. generations 20-21, respectively) due to regional differences in lung lining fluid volumes. Assuming 0.4% nanoparticle dissolution by mass as previously measured, we predict peak concentrations of silver ions in cells of 0.24 and 0.17 µg/mL for 20 and 110 nm particles, respectively. Both predicted concentrations are below the measured toxic threshold of 1.7 µg/mL of silver ions in cells from in vitro assessments. Assuming 4% dissolution by mass, we predict 10-fold higher silver concentrations in tissues, peaking at 2.4 and 1.7 µg/mL, for 20 and 110 nm nanoparticles respectively, exceeding the observed in vitro toxic threshold and highlighting the importance and sensitivity of dissolution rates. Overall, this approach offers a framework for extrapolating nanotoxicity results from in vitro cell culture systems to human exposures. Aligning appropriate dose metrics from in vitro and in vivo hazard characterizations and human pulmonary doses from occupational exposures are critical components for successful nanoparticle risk assessment and worker protection and provide guidance for designing future in vitro studies aimed at relevant human exposures.

Smith, Jordan N.↗

Activation of Insulation in Low Power Nuclear Experiments

Nuclear experiments aim to test new designs, procedures, and materials. Similar to conventional power reactors, potential sources of worker exposure to radiation is a primary concern. One such concern is the insulation materials that are used in or near the reactor, which can often create dust when being handled. If this material receives a substantial neutron dose, then it can become activated, which can pose a health risk if inhaled or ingested. This analysis looked at the activation of, and conservative dose estimates from, industrial grade insulations that may be used in a reactor experiment.

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DEPDOSE

DEPDOSE is an open-source computer application which combines the KDEP respiratory tract deposition software with committed equivalent dose coefficient tables from the DC_PAK internal dosimetry package. DEPDOSE allows the user to rapidly produce tables of dose coefficients to workers and members of the public inhaling a precisely defined, user-specified aerosols using the ICRP 60 series methodology. Combined with a plume dispersion modeling system such as QUIC, this makes it possible to predict radiation doses downstream from an accidental or intentional release of radioactive materials. For this work, a radioactive plume was calculated to members of the public downstream from a plausible release of radionuclides into the atmosphere.

Klumpp, John↗

Detection of Airborne Influenza A and SARS-CoV-2 Virus Shedding following Ocular Inoculation of Ferrets

Despite reports of confirmed human infection following ocular exposure with both influenza A virus (IAV) and SARS-CoV-2, the dynamics of virus spread throughout oculonasal tissues and the relative capacity of virus transmission following ocular inoculation remain poorly understood. Furthermore, the impact of exposure route on subsequent release of airborne viral particles into the air has not been examined previously. To assess this, ferrets were inoculated by the ocular route with A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H7N9) IAVs and two SARS-CoV-2 (early pandemic Washington/1 and Delta variant) viruses. Virus replication was assessed in both respiratory and ocular specimens, and transmission was evaluated in direct contact or respiratory droplet settings. Viral RNA in aerosols shed by inoculated ferrets was quantified with a two-stage cyclone aerosol sampler (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [NIOSH]). All IAV and SARS-CoV-2 viruses mounted a productive and transmissible infection in ferrets following ocular inoculation, with peak viral titers and release of virus-laden aerosols from ferrets indistinguishable from those from ferrets inoculated by previously characterized intranasal inoculation methods. Viral RNA was detected in ferret conjunctival washes from all viruses examined, though infectious virus in this specimen was recovered only following IAV inoculation. Low-dose ocular-only aerosol exposure or inhalation aerosol exposure of ferrets to IAV similarly led to productive infection of ferrets and shedding of aerosolized virus. Viral evolution during infection was comparable between all inoculation routes examined. Furthermore, these data support that both IAV and SARS-CoV-2 can establish a high-titer mammalian infection following ocular exposure that is associated with rapid detection of virus-laden aerosols shed by inoculated animals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dose Coefficients for Internal Dose Assessments for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout

This paper presents values as well as the bases for calculating internal dose coefficients suitable for estimating organ doses from the exposure to radioactive fallout that could result from the detonation of a nuclear fission device. The 34 radionuclides discussed are the same as those given in a priority list of radionuclides for fallout dose assessments presented in a companion overview paper. The radionuclides discussed are those that are believed to account for a preponderance of the organ doses that might be received by intake by persons of all ages (including in utero and via breast feeding for infants) following exposure to radioactive fallout. The presented dose coefficients for ingestion account for age and include modifications for variations in solubility with distance as discussed previously in the literature, and those for inhalation similarly account for age, solubility, and particle sizes that would be relevant at various distances of exposure as discussed in a companion paper on ingestion dose methods. The proposed modifications peculiar to radioactive fallout account for systematic changes in solubility and particle sizes with distance from the site of detonation, termed here as the region of “local fallout” and the region “beyond local fallout.” Brief definitions of these regions are provided here with more detailed discussion in a companion paper on estimating deposition of fallout radionuclides. This paper provides the dose coefficients for ingestion and inhalation (for particle sizes of 1 μm, 5 μm, 10 μm, and 20 μm) for the region “local fallout.” These dose coefficients for “local fallout” are specific for particles formed in a nuclear explosion that can be large and have radionuclides, particularly the more refractory ones, distributed throughout the volume where the radionuclide has reduced solubility. The dose coefficients for the region “beyond local fallout” are assumed to be the ones published by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1995. Comparisons of the presented dose coefficients are made with values published by the ICRP.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Internal Radiation Dose Evaluation For An Unruptured Post Release Tristructural Istropic Fuel Particle for Advanced and Micro-reactor Applications

There are unique benefits from advanced/micro reactor designs and fuel types that offer safety features in the case of an accident that may reduce environmental consequences compared to conventional reactors and fuels. Several micro reactor designs, for both civilian and military applications, are proposed using tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) fuel. TRISO particles are a robust advanced nuclear fuel type that leads to the unique question of how unruptured, activated TRISO particles will interact with humans. Human exposure to nuclear fuel, or radionuclides, includes all pathways of exposure. However, TRISO particles are 0.9 mm in size, and that particle size restricts internal dose assessment to the ingestion pathway; eliminating the inhalation and dermal absorption pathways. Furthermore, activity of the TRISO particle was established by High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor simulations assuming the TRISO particle was one day post-release from the reactor. International Commission of Radiological Protection publications 100 and 133 were used to develop the internal dosimetry model for an unruptured TRISO particle for the International Commission of Radiological Protection reference male and female dose assessment. The rectosigmoid colon had the highest internal organ dose for both reference male (2.1 Sv) and reference female (2.3 Sv). The internal dose from ingestion of the scenario-defined TRISO particle was 0.25 Sv for the reference male and 0.29 Sv for the refence female, which exceeds the annual occupational effective dose limit of 0.05 Sv in the code of federal regulations, 10.CFR.20 Subpart C.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Dose Calculation Methodology and Data for Solid Waste Performance Assessment and Composite Analysis at the Savannah River Site

This report provides a detailed description of the methodology developed to perform dose calculations for E-Area Low Level Waste Facility Performance Assessments and Savannah River Site Composite Analyses. Chapters 2 – 8 give a complete set of equations to be used to calculate dose for individual exposure pathways. The first set of dose scenarios assume that a member of the public establishes residence near the waste site and uses contaminated groundwater or contaminated surface water for personal consumption and to irrigate a garden and pasture where produce and farm animals are raised. Products from the garden and farm animals are used for personal consumption. This scenario applies to both E-Area Performance Assessments and Savannah River Site Composite Analyses. General dose exposure pathways for the resident farmer scenario are: 1. Ingestion pathways described in Chapter 2, 2. Inhalation pathways described in Chapter 3, 3. External exposure pathways described in Chapter 4, and 4. Recreational pathways described in Chapter 5 (Composite Analysis only). Doses from all of the above pathways are directly related to the contaminant concentration in the water. Additional dose scenarios considered for E-Area Performance Assessment assume that an inadvertent intruder encroaches on the waste disposal site after loss of institutional control. General dose exposure pathways considered for the inadvertent intruder are: 1. Ingestion pathways described in Chapter 6, 2. Inhalation pathways described in Chapter 7, and 3. External exposure pathways described in Chapter 8. Doses from all of the intruder pathways are directly related to the contaminant concentration in the buried waste. Special dose considerations related to human consumption of meat and dairy, and treatment of tritium in dose calculations are discussed in Chapter 9. Chapter 10 describes an Excel database named “Radionuclide, Element and Dose Parameter Data Package” that has been created to provide a system for maintaining the data required to perform radionuclide transport and dose calculations. This data includes: Isotope physical parameters and radioactive decay data needed for both transport and dose calculations, Isotope-specific dose coefficients and soil shielding factors associated with exposure pathways, Radionuclide drinking water concentration limits either published by the Environmental Protection Agency or derived from internal dose coefficients to meet the groundwater protection requirements in Department of Energy Order 435.1, Element-specific bio-transfer factors used in dose calculations, Dose equations and values of physical parameters and human factors used in dose calculations, and Key physical constants used in dose calculations. Revision 1 incorporates updated information developed since this report was issued for use in the next revision of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Performance Assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Species Extrapolation of Propyl Acetate Dose Metrics

We demonstrate the ability of the propyl PBPK model to predict dose metrics of propyl acetate, propanol, and propionic acid from a standard 90-day subchronic inhalation study of propyl acetate in male and female rats. The model was used to predict the same dose metrics in “reference” male and female humans using the same exposure conditions. Finally, we used reverse dosimetry with the model to predict what exposure conditions would lead to the same dose metrics measured in rats. These extrapolations of internal dose metrics based on known species differences in physiology and measured differences in metabolism offer a more scientific species extrapolation than conventional uncertainty approaches, potentially of interest for risk assessment.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Dose reconstruction for plutonium-239 intakes at the Rocky Flats Plant

Purpose: The Rocky Flats (RF) Plant was a weapons manufacturing facility that operated from the early 1950s to 1989. Its primary missions were the production of plutonium (Pu) pits for thermonuclear weapons and the processing of retired weapons for Pu recovery. The purpose of this study was to estimate radiation doses to a cohort of 4499 RF workers from an intake of 239 Pu, the primary plutonium isotope handled at the site. Materials and methods: The latest biokinetic models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection, or site-specific variations of those models, were used to estimate 239 Pu intakes for each worker based on model fits to bioassay data often coupled with lung measurements. Results: Urinary excretion and lung retention data for most 239 Pu intakes could be fit reasonably well by a mixture of Pu dioxide and moderately soluble material. For some workers, better fits were obtained by application of other absorption types including Type S, 239 Pu nitrate, or pure 239 Pu dioxide, or by assuming intake via a wound. The lungs typically received the highest tissue doses, with fifty-year committed equivalent doses in the range of 0.5–1 Sv for 275 workers, 1–5 Sv for 115 workers, and greater than 5 Sv for 12 workers. Conclusions: RF was a unique site regarding a large number of lung measurements available for determining the appropriate absorption types for inhaled material. Further, this provided higher confidence in reconstructed 239 Pu doses than is generally gained from urinary data alone.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Radionuclide Risk Coefficient Uncertainty Distributions for Use in Performance Assessments - 19156

Traditionally, radiation dose has been used as the regulatory criterion for decision making in performance assessments (PAs), despite the concept of cancer risk arguably being a more easily understood endpoint than dose for the public, and a preferable metric for decision analysis. However, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed risk parameters for use in risk assessments and PAs in the form of radionuclide-specific risk coefficients, or RCs, which are published in various Federal Guidance Reports (FGRs). RCs are employed as scalars to convert environmental radionuclide exposure (via ingestion, inhalation, and external exposure) estimates to incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). ILCR is the additional cancer risk averaged over a lifetime, over-and-above all-cause cancer risk, associated with carcinogen exposure. Uncertainties associated with RCs are discussed in FGR 13 and in a joint report published by EPA and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, but statistical distributions for the RCs were not directly developed. The uncertainty assessments in the EPA/ONRL report were based on dosimetric modeling and elicitation of nine experts. From these sources, five uncertainty categories were defined based on ratios of the 5. and 95. quantiles of uncertainty. Thus, the representations of uncertainty defined by EPA/ORNL are not distributions in a traditional sense. Furthermore, the authors only addressed uncertainty in RCs for inhalation and ingestion pathways. We develop a methodology for assigning statistical distributions to EPA's published mortality RC values (i.e. to estimate the probability of dying from radiation-induced cancers) for the inhalation (slow, medium, and fast absorption types), ingestion (water, food, and soil), and external exposure pathways associated with all cancer types. We employed the same dosimetric concepts and assumptions as EPA/ORNL, including cancer risk (dose-response) distributional information from a previous expert elicitation, which was also employed by EPA/ORNL in their work. We assumed that uncertainty in RCs can be described by lognormal distributions based on the modeling conducted previously by EPA/ORNL, and that point estimates tabulated in FGR 13 represent median values of the distributions. We also extended EPA/ORNL's uncertainty ratios to statistical distributions for external exposure RCs. The results are a set of radionuclide-specific distributions that are applicable in PAs that focus on cancer mortality. These distributions are currently and will subsequently be employed in PAs at various sites, in addition to the required regulatory dose limits. Quantification of ILCRs and associated uncertainty in PAs will provide regulators and the public with additional information for good decision making. Future directions include further refinement of the distributions and development of statistical distributions for morbidity RCs, which are used to estimate the probability of developing, but not necessarily dying as a result of, radiation-induced cancer. (authors)

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