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At least 55 records · Page 3

Cross-correlating Planck with VST ATLAS LRGs: a new test for the ISW effect in the Southern hemisphere

ABSTRACT The integrated Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) effect probes the late-time expansion history of the Universe, offering direct constraints on dark energy. Here, we present our measurements of the ISW signal at redshifts of $\bar{z}=0.35$, 0.55, and 0.68, using the cross-correlation of the Planck cosmic microwave background temperature map with ∼0.5 million luminous red galaxies (LRGs) selected from the VST ATLAS survey. We then combine these with previous measurements based on WMAP and similar SDSS LRG samples, providing a total sample of ∼2.1 million LRGs covering ∼12 000 deg2 of sky. At $\bar{z}=0.35$ and $\bar{z}=0.55$, we detect the ISW signal at 1.2σ and 2.3σ (or 2.6σ combined), in agreement with the predictions of lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM). We verify these results by repeating the measurements using the BOSS LOWZ and CMASS, spectroscopically confirmed LRG samples. We also detect the ISW effect in three magnitude limited ATLAS + SDSS galaxy samples extending to z ≈ 0.4 at ∼2σ per sample. However, we do not detect the ISW signal at $\bar{z}=0.68$ when combining the ATLAS and SDSS results. Further tests using spectroscopically confirmed eBOSS LRGs at this redshift remain inconclusive due to the current low sky coverage of the survey. If the ISW signal is shown to be redshift dependent in a manner inconsistent with the predictions of ΛCDM, it could open the door to alternative theories such as modified gravity. It is therefore important to repeat the high-redshift ISW measurement using the completed eBOSS sample, as well as deeper upcoming surveys such as DESI and LSST.

Ansarinejad, Behzad↗

Introducing new resonant soft x-ray scattering capability in SSRL

Resonant soft x-ray scattering (RSXS) is a powerful technique for probing both spatial and electronic structures within solid-state systems. Here, we present a newly developed RSXS capability at beamline 13-3 of the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource, designed to enhance materials science research. This advanced setup achieves a base sample temperature as low as 9.8 K combined with extensive angular motions (azimuthal ϕ and flipping χ), enabling comprehensive exploration of reciprocal space. Two types of detectors—an Au/GaAsP Schottky photodiode and a charge-coupled device detector with over 95% quantum efficiency—are integrated to effectively capture scattered photons. Extensive testing has confirmed the enhanced functionality of this RSXS setup, including its temperature and angular performance. The versatility and effectiveness of the system have been demonstrated through studies of various materials, including superlattice heterostructures and high-temperature superconductors.

Kuo, Cheng-Tai [SLAC National Accelerator Laborato↗

Reliability of Materials and Components for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

Planar stack solid-oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) require seals that must operate reliably under demanding conditions for lifetimes of 40000 hours. This includes temperature fluctuations between 800°C and RT during on and off cycles, thermal stresses, oxidizing environments and chemical degradation to name a few. This comprehensive report provides results from long term testing of two commercially available multicomponent barium alkali silicate glasses: SCN and G6, chosen as sealing candidates. In this scope, the glass seals were deposited on YSZ and Al 2 O 3 substrates simulating electrolytes (Zrbased) and coatings (both zirconia and Al 2 O 3 ). The seal-substrate couples were subjected to 800°C under air and steam+H 2 +N 2 environments up to 40000 hours to test their integrity under real operating conditions. Extensive studies on the effects of exposure have been conducted over the span of testing at various time intervals. Within the context of characterization, mechanical properties such as density, roughness, thermal expansion and glass transition, viscosity and wettability behavior; and microstructural properties such as glass chemistries, defect formation (cracks and pores), phase transformations (devitrification) and glass-interface reactions are investigated. Results and discussions are provided with a focus on the degradation of the properties over long term interrupted testing.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Can we safely go to 200 °C? An integrated approach to assessing impacts to the engineered barrier system in a high-temperature repository

Abstract. This presentation gives on overview of the complex thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes occurring during the disposal of heat-producing high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories. A specific focus is on the role of compacted bentonite, which is commonly used as an engineered backfill material for emplacement tunnels because of its low permeability, high swelling pressure, and radionuclide retention capacity. Laboratory and field tests integrated with THMC modeling have provided an effective way to deepen our understanding of temperature-related perturbations in the engineered barrier system; however, most of this work has been conducted for maximum temperatures around 100 ∘C. In contrast, some international disposal programs have recently started investigations to understand whether local temperatures in the bentonite of up to 200 ∘C could be tolerated with no significant changes to safety relevant properties. Raising the maximum temperature is attractive for economical and safety reasons but faces the challenge of exposing the bentonite to significant temperature increases. Strong thermal gradients may induce complex moisture transport processes while geochemical processes, such as cementation and perhaps also illitization effects may occur, all of which could strongly affect the bentonite and near-field rock properties. Here, we present initial investigations of repository behavior exposed to strongly elevated temperatures. We will start discussing our current knowledge base for temperature effects in repositories exposed to a maximum temperature of 100 ∘C, based on data and related modeling analysis from a large heater experiment conducted for over 18 years in the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland. We then show results from coupled THMC simulations of a nuclear waste repository in a clay formation exposed to a maximum temperature of 200 ∘C. We also explore preliminary data from a bench-scale laboratory mock-up experiment, which was designed to represent the strong THMC gradients occurring in a “hot” repository, and we finally touch on a full-scale field heater test to be conducted soon in the Grimsel Test Site underground research laboratory in Switzerland (referred to as HotBENT).

Birkholzer, Jens T. (ORCID:0000000279891912)↗

Mechanistic Multiscale Uncertainty Propagation in Support of Accelerated Fuel Qualification

Taking a nuclear fuel concept through the research, development, and qualification stages has historically taken on the order of 20 to 25 years because of extensive irradiation tests required for a variety of conditions. The concept of accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ) has been proposed to increase the innovation pace for nuclear fuels. The goal of AFQ is not to replace the traditional qualification approach but rather to reduce the total number of experiments required to ensure approval from the regulatory authority. Of the many AFQ approaches being explored, advanced modeling—and, in particular, mechanistic modeling—is in a uniquely cross-cutting position to reduce the number of required integral tests through the inclusion of separate-effects testing, while helping to extrapolate reactor performance during rare events. We make the case that propagation of uncertainty through various computational length scales helps contextualize mechanistic modeling. We will utilize UO 2 fission gas diffusion predictions from the atomistically informed cluster dynamics code Centipede to inform fuel performance rodlet simulations using the BISON finite element code as the metric for showing how multiscale mechanistic uncertainty quantification can help reduce uncertainty in fuel performance. In conclusion, by quantifying uncertainty and its reduction through multiscale modeling, the qualification process may be accelerated through the reduction of costly irradiation experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Basin‐Scale Testing of Alternative Data‐Driven Approaches

Abstract Integrated hydrological modeling is an effective method for understanding interactions between parts of the hydrologic cycle, quantifying water resources, and furthering knowledge of hydrologic processes. However, these models are dependent on robust and accurate datasets that physically represent spatial characteristics as model inputs. This study evaluates multiple data‐driven approaches for estimating hydraulic conductivity and subsurface properties at the continental‐scale, constructed from existing subsurface dataset components. Each subsurface configuration represents upper (unconfined) hydrogeology, lower (confined) hydrogeology, and the presence of a vertical flow barrier. Configurations are tested in two large‐scale U.S. watersheds using an integrated model. Model results are compared to observed streamflow and steady state water table depth (WTD). We provide model results for a range of configurations and show that both WTD and surface water partitioning are important indicators of performance. We also show that geology data source, total subsurface depth, anisotropy, and inclusion of a vertical flow barrier are the most important considerations for subsurface configurations. While a range of configurations proved viable, we provide a recommended Selected National Configuration 1 km resolution subsurface dataset for use in distributed large‐and continental‐scale hydrologic modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RELAP5-3D Modeling of High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) Test PG-26

The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors with prismatic fuel and reflector blocks. Several tests have been completed, and more are still planned to at the HTTF, including depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) and pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) transients. This report analyses test PG-26, a progression of the Double Ended Inlet-Outlet Crossover Duct Break transient that is referred to as a DCC. PG-26 has been performed at the HTTF between May 30 and June 30, 2019. Core initial conditions (i.e., before the DCC started) have been met using low power (<100 kW) and two of ten available electric heaters. The DCC transient was initiated during the 50 th hour of the test. The break valves were opened, and hot helium from the core and cold helium from the reactor cavity simulation tank (RCST) started mixing. The gases flowed in a countercurrent fashion, where the top half of the hot duct contained hot helium that flowed in one direction and cold helium that flowed in the other direction in the bottom half of the duct. After the pressure and density reached equilibrium, the event entered a diffusion mode. The onset of a reverse natural circulation was not observed during the DCC period of the test. Version 4.4.2ie of the RELAP5-3D computer code has been used to model the HTTF PG-26 test, and results have been compared to available high-quality measured data. The model used in this study is the quality-controlled HTTF RELAP5-3D model (HTTF base 2018-04-19 QA), originally developed by P. Bayless. The report includes RELAP5-3D results of the “base calculations” as well as some sensitivities to important uncertain model inputs, such as primary helium mass flow rate, core ceramic thermal properties, as well as heat evacuation and loop friction models. Using the base RELAP5-3D model predicts a countercurrent helium flow in the hot duct observed at the beginning of the DCC, but instead of going into a molecular diffusion mode, the model predicts the onset of natural convection. Increasing friction in the core and hot duct prevents the natural convection from happening in some of the simulations. Although some temperatures are well predicted (and even overpredicted), the general tendency is to underpredict the ceramic and helium temperatures and heat removal rates during the DCC, resulting in many of the assessment findings being in minimal or insufficient agreement with the data. It is worth noting that the described discrepancies between measured data and RELAP5-3D predictions are not RELAP5-3D code limitations. More so, they reflect limitations in boundary condition and thermal property knowledge. While the RELAP5-3D calculations of the test provide some insights into what happens during the transient, and point to missing or potentially uncertain data to which the experimenters can direct their attention, the principal conclusion is that the PG-26 test data are insufficient for a system code assessment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modeling of HTTF test PG-26 using RELAP5-3D and SAM

The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors (HTGR) with prismatic fuel and reflector blocks [1]. Several tests have been completed at the HTTF including depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) and pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) transients. This summary reports on the analysis of test PG-26 using the INL system code REALP5-3D [2] as well as the ANL system code SAM [3]. Test PG-26 is a progression of the Double Ended Inlet-Outlet Crossover Duct Break transient that is referred to as a DCC [4]. Core initial conditions (i.e., before the DCC started) have been met using low power (<100 kW) and two of ten available electric heater banks. The DCC transient was initiated during the 50th hour of the test. The break valves were opened, and hot helium from the core and cold helium from the reactor cavity simulation tank (RCST) started mixing. The gases flowed in a countercurrent fashion, where the top half of the hot duct contained hot helium that flowed in one direction and cold helium that flowed in the other direction in the bottom half of the duct. After the pressure and density reached equilibrium, the event entered a diffusion mode. The onset of a reverse natural circulation was not observed during the DCC period of the test.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integration Development and Testing of Rear Transition Monitor for Beam Current Monitoring System

Addressing baseline effects in accelerator environments is crucial for accurate data acquisition and analysis, since baseline effects can obscure signal clarity and impact the reliability of beam current monitoring systems. There are many potential contributors to baseline noise, such as variations in beam dynamics, electromagnetic interference from nearby equipment, or RF interference. Previous applications of noise reduction systems don t sufficiently filter sources of asynchronous noise, so a new algorithm was implemented. A simulation dataset was created to replicate beam conditions and a Red Pitaya FPGA was used to collect data through the streaming application. A Python script was developed to implement noise reduction algorithms and efforts were made to integrate real-time data streaming with the Redis platform and Acnet Front End infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Best-estimate Modeling of the High Temperature Test Facility with RELAP5-3D

Prismatic HTGRs are a concept of interest for near-term deployment. While plenty of validation data exist for standalone neutronics or multiphysics modeling, the availability of integral effects thermal hydraulics validation data is more limited. The High Temperature Test Facility provides such data and is used as the basis for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Thermal Hydraulics Benchmark. This presentation presents results of best-estimate modeling of HTTF experiments PG-27 and PG-29 using the RELAP5-3D ring model developed at Idaho National Laboratory.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feasibility Assessment of a Natural-Circulation Salt Irradiation Loop in the Advanced Test Reactor

Molten-salt reactors will likely require some level of irradiation testing as part of their licensing basis. An ideal experiment would consider the integrated effect of neutron flux and fission product generation in addition to circulating flow conditions. The feasibility of a natural-circulation irradiation salt loop in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is assessed here. The flow is induced by the innovative combination of gas gaps and fin gaps along the capsule wall to fine-tune radial heat conductance, and therefore drive an axial temperature gradient across the experiment height. Following multiple design optimizations, a promising configuration has been identified. The 45-kW experiment would generate a 0.15 m/s flow velocity with 6 kg of fuel-bearing salt. This demonstrates the possibility of generating appreciable flow rates within manageable experimental conditions (e.g., total size and heat generation). An initial assessment of species mass tracking inside the experiment was also performed to gain an understanding of radionuclide behavior within the system. Results showed that significant quantities of Xe can be extracted in the off-gas (1.7 kCi) for an 8% bubble removal efficiency rate. Here, these results highlight the potential value of such experiments. Further work will involve detailed engineering drawings and analyses of the loop, as well as more computationally expensive modeling of species mass tracking.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling and mitigating fouling of microfiltration membranes for microalgae dewatering

Dewatering is energy-intensive for microalgae production, and microfiltration (MF) membranes are attractive because of their high energy efficiency. However, the membranes suffer from fouling by organic matter in the algae solutions, and there needs fundamental understanding of membrane fouling with actual algae solutions. Herein we thoroughly evaluate the dewatering performance of commercial polyethersulfone (PES) MF membranes using an integrated experiment and modeling approach. The effect of algae concentration, testing time, feed flow rate, and chemical cleaning on the dewatering performance and fouling-layer morphology are investigated. The fouling behavior can be successfully described using the Hermia and gel layer models with a gel concentration of 48 g/L for algae solutions. Furthermore, the PES membrane surface was grafted with hydrophilic zwitterions, which mitigated the fouling. For example, when challenged with 10 g/L algae solution in dead-end cells, the pristine and modified membrane exhibit water permeance of 80 and 170 L m – 2 h –1 bar –1 , respectively. Finally, three cycles of dewatering and NaOH cleaning were performed to demonstrate the promise of the MF membranes for practical dewatering application.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Numerical Modeling & Optimization of the iProTech Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP) Wave Energy Converter (WEC) (CRADA Final Report)

This project represents a continuation of the collaboration between iProTech and NLR to simulate, optimize and design the iProTech Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP) device. The objectives of this TEAMER project are twofold: 1. Refining the physical characteristics of the existing iProTech PIP WEC-Sim model to enhance the model’s fidelity and include controllable components. Key model enhancements target the inclusion of Coulomb friction, the introduction of a controllable bypass valve, and the replacement of traditional check valves with advanced motorized ones. 2. Exploring traditional and advanced control algorithms. From traditional methods like latching control to cutting-edge reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, the goal is to ensure the PIP device's adaptability and optimal performance across a range of ocean conditions. NLR is tasked with augmenting the WEC-Sim model and implementing the control algorithms, culminating in performance comparison analyses. iProTech will update their existing 3D models, advise on model improvements, and determine crucial system metrics. WEC-Sim, developed in MATLAB/SIMULINK with Simscape Multibody, is the main piece of software that will be used in this project. Coupled with the MATLAB RL Toolbox, it offers a robust platform for in-depth simulation and optimization of the iProTech PIP device. Building on previous work to explore the PIP design space and optimize its geometry, mass distribution, center of gravity and other key parameters, this project aims to refine iProTech’s existing numerical models and develop effective control algorithms that can seamlessly integrate into their future hardware testing campaigns.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Nonnuclear Experimental Capabilities to Support Design, Development, and Demonstration of Microreactors

This work provides a summary of selected experimental capabilities being developed to support nonnuclear testing and demonstration of technology in support of microreactors under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Microreactor Program. Major capabilities include the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator (SPHERE) and the Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Experimental Test Bed (MAGNET). The SPHERE facility allows for controlled testing of the steady-state and transient heat rejection capabilities of a single heat pipe using electrical heaters that simulate nuclear heating. The facility is capable of monitoring axial temperature profiles along the heat pipe and surrounding test articles during startup, steady-state operation, and transients. Instrumentation includes noncontact infrared thermal imaging, surface thermocouples, spatially distributed fiber optic temperature and strain sensors, electrical power meters, and a water-cooled, gas-gap calorimeter for quantifying heat rejection from the heat pipe. The facility can be operated under both vacuum and inert-gas conditions. The MAGNET facility is a large-scale, 250-kW electrically heated microreactor test bed to enable nonnuclear experimental evaluation of a variety of microreactor concepts. It can be supplied to electrically heat a scaled section of a microreactor and further test the capabilities of heat rejection systems. The initial MAGNET experiments will support technology maturation and reduce uncertainty and risk associated with the design, operation, and deployment of monolithic heat pipe–based reactors. However, this test bed can broadly be applied to multiple microreactor concepts to evaluate a wide range of thermal-hydraulic and structural phenomena such as interface coupling with power conversion units and other collocated systems. MAGNET can evaluate integral thermomechanical effects during electrical heating of an array of heat pipes in a larger test article. Examples of initial testing will include thermal stresses in the monolith and the impact of debonding of a heat pipe from the core block and how that failure could impact surrounding heat pipes, i.e., understanding the potential for cascading failure. This work also discusses some modeling capabilities that can support experiment design, analysis, and interpretation, including the heat pipe code Sockeye and a comparison of thermal-structural simulations performed using ABAQUS and STAR-CCM+.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SMR safety through HTTF modeling and benchmark efforts for code validation for gas-cooled reactor applications

Accurate modeling and simulation tools for thermal-hydraulics calculations are a key element needed to design and license new advanced reactors including Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and Microreactors. Uncertainties in modeling and simulation can have significant safety and economic implications. The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled prismatic-block nuclear reactors. High-quality measurement data is available from the HTTF that is suitable for a thermal-hydraulics code validation benchmark for gas-cooled reactor simulations. Here, this paper summarizes individual HTTF modeling efforts to date for tool validation at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oregon State University (OSU) and Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) using system thermal-hydraulics codes, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes and system-CFD code couplings. Also, the paper introduces the ongoing OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) High Temperature Gas Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics (HTGR T/H) benchmark that allows for better comparisons of results between different international modeling teams. The benchmark provides well defined computational problems that include code-to-code comparisons and comparisons to measured data. These problems provide an avenue for quantifying accuracy and identifying sources of uncertainty in thermal-hydraulics calculations, including in measured thermophysical properties, as part of validation for gas-cooled reactor simulation tools.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗