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Science Prospects from the STEREO Mission

The solar magnetic field is constantly generated beneath the surface of the Sun by the solar dynamo. To balance this flux generation, there is constant dissipation of magnetic flux at and above the solar surface. The largest phenomenon associated with this dissipation is the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has provided remarkable views of the corona and CMEs, and served to highlight how these large interplanetary disturbances can have terrestrial consequences. STEREO is the next logical step to study the physics of CME origin, propagation, and terrestrial effects. Two spacecraft with identical instrument complements will be launched on a single launch vehicle in November 2007. One spacecraft will drift ahead and the second behind the Earth at a separation rate of 22 degrees per year. Observation from these two vantage points will for the first time allow the observation of the three-dimensional structure of CMEs and the coronal structures where they originate. Each STEREO spacecraft carries a complement of 10 instruments, which include (for the first time) an extensive set of BOTH remote sensing and in-situ instruments. The remote sensing suite is capable of imaging CMEs from the solar surface out to beyond Earth's orbit (1 AU), and in-situ instruments are able to measure distribution functions for electrons, protons, and ions over a broad energy range, from the normal thermal solar in wind plasma to the most energetic solar particles. It is anticipated that these studies will ultimately lead to an increased understanding, of the CME process and eventually to the ability to predict CME occurrence and thereby 'forecast' the condition of the near-Earth environment.

Davila, Joseph M.↗

Scientific Uses and Directions of SPDF Data Services

From a science user's perspective, the multi-mission data and orbit services of NASA's Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) project perform as a working and highly functional heliophysics virtual observatory. CDAWeb enables plots, listings and file downloads for current data across the boundaries of missions and instrument types (and now including data from THEMIS and STEREO), VSPO access to a wide range of distributed data sources. SSCWeb, Helioweb and our 3D Animated Orbit Viewer (TIPSOD) provide position data and query logic for most missions currently-important to heliophysics science. OMNIWeb with its new extension to 1- and 5- minute resolution provides interplanetary parameters at the Earth's bow shock as a unique value-added data product. To enable easier integrated use of our capabilities by developers and by the emerging heliophysics VxOs, our data and services are available through webservices-based APls as well as through our direct user interfaces. SPDF has also now developed draft descriptions of its holdings in SPASE-compliant XML In addition to showcasing recent enhancements to SPDF capabilities, we will use these systems and our experience in developing them: to demonstrate a few typical science use cases; to discuss key scope and design issues among users, service providers and end data providers; and to identify key areas where existing capabilities and effective interface design are still inadequate to meet community needs.

Fung, Shing↗

The User Community and a Multi-Mission Data Project: Services, Experiences and Directions of the Space Physics Data Facility

From a user's perspective, the multi-mission data and orbit services of NASA's Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) project offer a unique range of important data and services highly complementary to other services presently available or now evolving in the international heliophysics data environment. The VSP (Virtual Space Physics Observatory) service is an active portal to a wide range of distributed data sources. CDAWeb (Coordinate Data Analysis Web) enables plots, listings and file downloads for current data cross the boundaries of missions and instrument types (and now including data from THEMIS and STEREO). SSCWeb, Helioweb and our 3D Animated Orbit Viewer (TIPSOD) provide position data and query logic for most missions currently important to heliophysics science. OMNIWeb with its new extension to 1- and 5-minute resolution provides interplanetary parameters at the Earth's bow shock as a unique value-added data product. SPDF also maintains NASA's CDF (common Data Format) standard and a range of associated tools including translation services. These capabilities are all now available through webservices-based APIs as well as through our direct user interfaces. In this paper, we will demonstrate the latest data and capabilities now supported in these multi-mission services, review the lessons we continue to learn in what science users need and value in this class of services, and discuss out current thinking to the future role and appropriate focus of the SPDF effort in the evolving and increasingly distributed heliophysics data environment.

Fung, Shing F.↗

Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO)

The Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO) focuses on improved discovery, access, and usability of heliospheric energetic particle and ancillary data products from selected spacecraft and sub-orbital instruments of the heliophysics data environment. The energy range of interest extends over the full range of particle acceleration from keV energies of suprathermal seed particles to GeV energies of galactic cosmic ray particles. Present spatial coverage is for operational and legacy spacecraft operating from the inner to the outer heliosphere, e.g. from measurements by the two Helios spacecraft to 0.3 AU to the inner heliosheath region now being traversed by the two Voyager spacecraft. This coverage will eventually be extended inward to ten solar radii by the planned NASA solar probe mission and at the same time beyond the heliopause into the outer heliosheath by continued Voyager operations. The geospace fleet of spacecraft providing near-Earth interplanetary measurements, selected magnetospheric spacecraft providing direct measurements of penetrating interplanetary energetic particles, and interplanetary cruise measurements from planetary spacecraft missions further extend VEPO resources to the domain of geospace and planetary interactions. Ground-based (e.g., neutron monitor) and high-altitude suborbital measurements can expand coverage to the highest energies of galactic cosmic rays affected by heliospheric interaction and of solar energetic particles. Science applications include investigation of solar flare and coronal mass ejection events. acceleration and transport of interplanetary particles within the inner heliosphere, cosmic ray interactions with planetary surfaces and atmospheres, sources of suprathermal and anomalous cosmic ray ions in the outer heliosphere, and solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic rays. Robotic and human exploration, and eventual habitation, of planetary and space environments beyond the Earth require knowledge of radiation hazards informed by VEPO data resources. The VEPO project has completed the first year of work to define science requirements, to document and register selected data products in SPASE format while evolving SPASE for increased applicability to VEPO data, and to support enhanced discovery and access for these products through the evolving data query and middleware system of the Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO). The VEPO team operates as a heliophysics focus group for energetic particle data resources in partnership with VHO and also leverages existing data services of NASA's Space Physics Data Facility. We invite comments from the U.S. and international data provider and user communities on review of the current VEPO/VHO user interface, on directions for future evolution of VEPO and supporting data systems including VHO and SPDF, and on relations to other elements of the heliophysics virtual observatory environment.

Cooper, John F.↗

The STEREO Mission

STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) will launch in 2006 on a two-year mission to study Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and the solar wind. The mission consists of two space-based observatories - one moving ahead of Earth in its orbit, the other trailing behind - to provide the first-ever stereoscopic measurements to study the Sun and the nature of CMEs. STEREO's scientific objectives are to: 1) Understand the causes and mechanisms of coronal mass ejection (CME) initiation; 2) Characterize the propagation of CMEs through the heliosphere; 3) Discover the mechanisms and sites of energetic particle acceleration in the low corona and the interplanetary medium; 4) Improve the determination of the structure of the ambient solar wind. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Kucera, Therese↗

Space Weathering Investigations Enabled by NASA's Virtual Heliophysical Observatories

Structural and chemical impact of the heliospheric space environment on exposed planetary surfaces and interplanetary dust grains may be generally defined as space weathering . In the inner solar system, from the asteroid belt inwards towards the Sun, the surface regolith structures of airless bodies are primarily determined by cumulative meteoritic impacts over billions of years, but the molecular composition to meters in depth can be substantially modified by irradiation effects. Plasma ions at eV to keV energies may both erode uppermost surfaces by sputtering, and implant or locally produce exogenic material, e.g. He-3 and H2O, while more energetic ions drive molecular change through electronic ionization. Galactic cosmic ray ions and more energetic solar ions can impact chemistry to meters in depth. High energy cosmic ray interactions produce showers of secondary particles and energetic photons that present hazards for robotic and human exploration missions but also enable detection of potentially useable resources such as water ice, oxygen, and many other elements. Surface sputtering also makes ejected elemental and molecular species accessible for in-situ compositional analysis by spacecraft with ion and neutral mass spectrometers. Modeling of relative impacts for these various space weathering processes requires knowledge of the incident species-resolved ion flux spectra at plasma to cosmic ray energies and as integrated over varying time scales. Although the main drivers for investigations of these processes come from NASA's planetary science and human exploration programs, the NASA heliophysics program provides the requisite data measurement and modeling resources to enable specification of the field & plasma and energetic particle irradiation environments for application to space weather and surface weathering investigations. The Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO), Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO), Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX), and Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) services now provide a wide range of inner heliospheric spacecraft data that can be applied to space weathering of potential exploration destinations including the Moon, asteroids, and the moons of Mars, as well to radiation hazard assessment for the spacecraft and human explorers. For example, the new VEPO service for time-averaging of multi-source ion flux spectra enables the specification of composite flux spectra from a variety of ongoing and legacy missions for applications to surface interaction modeling. Apollo to Artemis data resources of LunaSOX enable specific space weathering investigations for the Moon, while VHO more generally covers the space field and plasma environments of the inner and outer solar system from the sunward-most perihelia of the twin Helios spacecraft to the ongoing heliosheath passages of the twin Voyagers. Composite multi-source spectra from VEPO can also be applied to the continuing compilation of accumulated 1-AU fluence spectra, mostly contributed by solar wind plasma and energetic particle events, for determination of time-averaged particle compositional and kinetic energy output from the Sun and for modeling of long-term irradiation impacts on planetary surfaces.

Cooper, John F.↗

Relation Between Type II Bursts and CMEs Inferred from STEREO Observations

The inner coronagraph (COR1) of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has made it possible to observe CMEs in the spatial domain overlapping with that of the metric type II radio bursts. The type II bursts were associated with generally weak flares (mostly B and C class soft X-ray flares), but the CMEs were quite energetic. Using CME data for a set of type II bursts during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we determine the CME height when the type II bursts start, thus giving an estimate of the heliocentric distance at which CME-driven shocks form. This distance has been determined to be approx. 1.5Rs (solar radii), which coincides with the distance at which the Alfven speed profile has a minimum value.We also use type II radio observations from STEREO/WAVES and Wind/WAVES observations to show that CMEs with moderate speed drive either weak shocks or no shock at all when they attain a height where the Alfven speed peaks (approx. 3Rs - 4Rs). Thus the shocks seem to be most efficient in accelerating electrons in the heliocentric distance range of 1.5Rs to 4Rs. By combining the radial variation of the CME speed in the inner corona (CME speed increase) and interplanetary medium (speed decrease) we were able to correctly account for the deviations from the universal drift-rate spectrum of type II bursts, thus confirming the close physical connection between type II bursts and CMEs. The average height (approx 1.5Rs) of STEREO CMEs at the time of type II bursts is smaller than that (2.2Rs) obtained for SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) CMEs. We suggest that this may indicate, at least partly, the density reduction in the corona between the maximum and declining phases, so a given plasma level occurs closer to the Sun in the latter phase. In two cases, there was a diffuse shock-like feature ahead of the main body of the CME, indicating a standoff distance of 1Rs - 2Rs by the time the CME left the LASCO field of view.

Solar Energetic Particles↗

Relation Between Type II Bursts and CMEs Inferred from STEREO Observations

The inner coronagraph (COR1) of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has made it possible to observe coronal mass ejections (CMEs) a in the spatial domain overlapping with that of the metric type II radio bursts. The type II bursts were associated with generally weak flares (mostly B and C class soft X-ray flares), but the CMEs were quite energetic. Using CME data for a set of type II bursts during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we determine the CME height when the type II bursts start, thus giving an estimate of the heliocentric distance at which CME-driven shocks form. This distance has been determined to be approximately 1.5Rs (solar radii), which coincides with the distance at which the Alfv?n speed profile has a minimum value. We also use type II radio observations from STEREO/WAVES and Wind/WAVES observations to show that CMEs with moderate speed drive either weak shocks or no shock at all when they attain a height where the Alfv?n speed peaks (?3Rs ? 4Rs). Thus the shocks seem to be most efficient in accelerating electrons in the heliocentric distance range of 1.5Rs to 4Rs. By combining the radial variation of the CME speed in the inner corona (CME speed increase) and interplanetary medium (speed decrease) we were able to correctly account for the deviations from the universal drift-rate spectrum of type II bursts, thus confirming the close physical connection between type II bursts and CMEs. The average height (approximately 1.5 Rs) of STEREO CMEs at the time of type II bursts is smaller than that (2.2 Rs) obtained for SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) CMEs. We suggest that this may indicate, at least partly, the density reduction in the corona between the maximum and declining phases, so a given plasma level occurs closer to the Sun in the latter phase. In two cases, there was a diffuse shock-like feature ahead of the main body of the CME, indicating a standoff distance of 1Rs - 2Rs by the time the CME left the LASCO field of view.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Deep space target location with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Hipparcos data

Interplanetary spacecraft navigation requires accurate a priori knowledge of target positions. A concept is presented for attaining improved target ephemeris accuracy using two future Earth-orbiting optical observatories, the European Space Agency (ESA) Hipparcos observatory and the Nasa Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Assuming nominal observatory performance, the Hipparcos data reduction will provide an accurate global star catalog, and HST will provide a capability for accurate angular measurements of stars and solar system bodies. The target location concept employs HST to observe solar system bodies relative to Hipparcos catalog stars and to determine the orientation (frame tie) of these stars to compact extragalactic radio sources. The target location process is described, the major error sources discussed, the potential target ephemeris error predicted, and mission applications identified. Preliminary results indicate that ephemeris accuracy comparable to the errors in individual Hipparcos catalog stars may be possible with a more extensive HST observing program. Possible future ground and spacebased replacements for Hipparcos and HST astrometric capabilities are also discussed.

Null, George W.↗

Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

space weather↗

Power systems for production, construction, life support and operations in space

As one looks to man's future in space it becomes obvious that unprecedented amounts of power are required for the exploration, colonization, and exploitation of space. Activities envisioned include interplanetary travel and LEO to GEO transport using electric propulsion, Earth and lunar observatories, advance space stations, free-flying manufacturing platforms, communications platforms, and eventually evolutionary lunar and Mars bases. These latter bases would start as camps with modest power requirements (kWes) and evolve to large bases as manufacturing, food production, and life support materials are developed from lunar raw materials. These latter activities require very robust power supplies (MWes). The advanced power system technologies being pursued by NASA to fulfill these future needs are described. Technologies discussed will include nuclear, photovoltaic, and solar dynamic space power systems, including energy storage, power conditioning, power transmission, and thermal management. The state-of-the-art and gains to be made by technology advancements will be discussed. Mission requirements for a variety of applications (LEO, GEO, lunar, and Martian) will be treated, and data for power systems ranging from a few kilowatts to megawatt power systems will be represented. In addition the space power technologies being initiated under NASA's new Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) and Space Leadership Planning Group Activities will be discussed.

Sovie, Ronald J.↗

Power systems for production, construction, life support, and operations in space

As one looks to man's future in space it becomes obvious that unprecedented amounts of power are required for the exploration, colonization, and exploitation of space. Activities envisioned include interplanetary travel and LEO to GEO transport using electric propulsion, earth and lunar observatories, advance space stations, free-flying manufacturing platforms, communications platforms, and eventually evolutionary lunar and Mars bases. These latter bases would start as camps with modest power requirements (kWes) and evolve to large bases as manufacturing, food production, and life support materials are developed from lunar raw materials. These latter activities require very robust power supplies (MWes). The advanced power system technologies being pursued by NASA to fulfill these future needs are described. Technologies discussed will include nuclear, photovoltaic, and solar dynamic space power systems, including energy storage, power conditioning, power transmission, and thermal management. The state-of-the-art and gains to be made by technology advancements will be discussed. Mission requirements for a variety of applications (LEO, GEO, lunar, and Martian) will be treated, and data for power systems ranging from a few kilowatts to megawatt power systems will be represented. In addition the space power technologies being initiated under NASA's new Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) and Space Leadership Planning Group Activities will be discussed.

Sovie, Ronald J.↗

Coronal Mass Ejections: a Summary of Recent Results

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. This paper highlights some of the recent results on CMEs obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) missions. The summary of the talk follows. SOHO observations revealed that the CME rate is almost a factor of two larger than previously thought and varied with the solar activity cycle in a complex way (e.g., high-latitude CMEs occurred in great abundance during the solar maximum years). CMEs were found to interact with other CMEs as well as with other large-scale structures (coronal holes), resulting in deflections and additional particle acceleration. STEREO observations have confirmed the three-dimensional nature of CMEs and the shocks surrounding them. The EUV signatures (flare arcades, corona) dimming, filament eruption, and EUV waves) associated with CMEs have become vital in the identification of solar sources from which CMEs erupt. CMEs with speeds exceeding the characteristic speeds of the corona and the interplanetary medium drive shocks, which produce type II radio bursts. The wavelength range of type II bursts depends on the CME kinetic energy: type II bursts with emission components at all wavelengths (metric to kilometric) are due to CMEs of the highest kinetic energy. Some CMEs, as fast as 1600 km/s do not produce type II bursts, while slow CMEs (400 km/s) occasionally produce type II bursts. These observations can be explained as the variation in the ambient flow speed (solar wind) and the Alfven speed. Not all CME-driven shocks produce type II bursts because either they are subcritical or do not have the appropriate geometry. The same shocks that produce type II bursts also produce solar energetic particles (SEPs), whose release near the Sun seems to be delayed with respect to the onset of type II bursts. This may indicate a subtle difference in the acceleration of the ions and 10 keV electrons needed to produce type II bursts. Surprisingly, some shocks lacking type II bursts are associated with energetic storm particle events (ESPs) pointing to the importance of electron escape from the shock for producing the radio emission. CMEs slow down or accelerate in the interplanetary medium because of the drag force, which modifies the transit time of CMEs and shocks. Halo CMEs that appear to surround the occulting disk were known before the SOHO era as occasional events. During the SOHO era, they became very prominent because of their ability to impact Earth and producing geomagnetic storms. Halo CMEs are generally more energetic than ordinary CMEs, which means they can produce severe impact on Earth's magnetosphere. Their origin close to the disk center of the Sun ensures direct impact on the magnetosphere, although their internal magnetic structure is crucial in causing storms. The solar sources of CMEs that produce SEP events at Earth, on the other hand, are generally in the western hemisphere because of the magnetic connectivity. Thus, CMEs are very interesting from the point of view of plasma physics as well as practical implications because of their space weather impact.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

A Quarter Century of Wind Spacecraft Discoveries

The Wind spacecraft, launched on November 1, 1994, is a critical element in NASA’s Heliophysics System Observatory (HSO)—a fleet of spacecraft created to understand the dynamics of the Sun-Earth system. The combination of its longevity (>25 years in service), its diverse complement of instrumentation, and high resolution and accurate measurements has led to it becoming the “standard candle” of solar wind measurements. Wind has over 55 selectable public data products with over ∼1,100 total data variables (including OMNI data products) on SPDF/CDAWeb alone. These data have led to paradigm shifting results in studies of statistical solar wind trends, magnetic reconnection, large-scale solar wind structures, kinetic physics, electromagnetic turbulence, the Van Allen radiation belts, coronal mass ejection topology, interplanetary and interstellar dust, the lunar wake, solar radio bursts, solar energetic particles, and extreme astrophysical phenomena such as gamma-ray bursts. This review introduces the mission and instrument suites then discusses examples of the contributions by Wind to these scientific topics that emphasize its importance to both the fields of heliophysics and astrophysics.

Lynn B. Wilson III↗

Coronal Mass Ejections and Their Heliospheric Consequences

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission has accumulated a wealth of information on CMEs with unprecedented extent, clarity, and uniformity. The CME data base has been useful in confirming results from past missions and obtaining a number of new results on the initiation, propagation, and heliospheric consequences of CMEs. This paper highlights some of the recent results on the morphological, physical, and kinematic properties of CMEs observed during solar cycle 23. White-light signatures of CMEs and their utility in inferring coronal magnetic fields near the Sun will be discussed. Presence of coronal holes near eruption regions have been shown to significantly modify the trajectories of CMEs. New results on the interaction of CMEs with large-scale structures such as coronal holes and other CMEs will be presented. Finally, the CME consequences in the heliosphere such as interplanetary shocks, type II radio bursts, energetic particles, geomagnetic storms, and cosmic ray modulation will be discussed

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

High Angular Resolution Imaging of Solar Radio Bursts from the Lunar Surface

Locating low frequency radio observatories on the lunar surface has a number of advantages, including positional stability and a very low ionospheric radio cutoff. Here, we describe the Radio Observatory on the lunar Surface for Solar studies (ROLSS), a concept for a low frequency, radio imaging interferometric array designed to study particle acceleration in the corona and inner heliosphere. ROLSS would be deployed during an early lunar sortie or by a robotic rover as part of an unmanned landing. The preferred site is on the lunar near side to simplify the data downlink to Earth. The prime science mission is to image type II and type III solar radio bursts with the aim of determining the sites at and mechanisms by which the radiating particles are accelerated. Secondary science goals include constraining the density of the lunar ionosphere by measuring the low radio frequency cutoff of the solar radio emissions or background galactic radio emission, measuring the flux, particle mass, and arrival direction of interplanetary and interstellar dust, and constraining the low energy electron population in astrophysical sources. Furthermore, ROLSS serves a pathfinder function for larger lunar radio arrays. Key design requirements on ROLSS include the operational frequency and angular resolution. The electron densities in the solar corona and inner heliosphere are such that the relevant emission occurs below 10 M Hz, essentially unobservable from Earth's surface due to the terrestrial ionospheric cutoff. Resolving the potential sites of particle acceleration requires an instrument with an angular resolution of at least 2 deg at 10 MHz, equivalent to a linear array size of approximately one kilometer. The major components of the ROLSS array are 3 antenna arms, each of 500 m length, arranged in a Y formation, with a central electronics package (CEP) at their intersection. Each antenna arm is a linear strip of polyimide film (e.g., Kapton(TradeMark)) on which 16 single polarization dipole antennas are located by depositing a conductor (e.g., silver). The arms also contain transmission lines for carrying the radio signals from the science antennas to the CEP. Operations would consist of data acquisition during the lunar day, with data downlinks to Earth one or more times every 24 hours.

MacDowall, Robert J.↗

Exploration Studies Technical Report - Volume 2: Studies Approach and Results

The NASA Office of Exploration has been tasked with defining and recommending alternatives for an early 1990's national decision on a focused program of human exploration of the solar system. The Mission Analysis and System Engineering (MASE) group, which is managed by the Exploration Studies Office at the Johnson Space Center, is responsible for coordinating the technical studies necessary for accomplishing such a task. This technical report describes the process that has been developed in a case study approach. The four case studies that were developed in FY88 include: 1. Human expedition to Phobos 2. Human expeditions to Mars 3. Lunar observatory 4. Lunar outpost to early Mars evolution The final outcome of this effort is a set of programmatic and technical conclusions and recommendations for the following year's work. Volume 2 describes the case study process, the technical results of each of the case studies, and opportunities for additional study. Included in the discussion of each case study is a description of the mission key features and profile. Mission definition and manifesting are detailed, followed by a description of the mission architecture and infrastructure. Systems concepts for the required orbital nodes, transportation systems, and planetary surface systems are discussed. Prerequisite implementation plans resulting from the synthesized case studies are described and in-depth assessments are presented.

Interplanetary flight↗

Automatic Detection of Large-scale Flux Ropes and Their Geoeffectiveness with a Machine-learning Approach

Detecting large-scale flux ropes (FRs) embedded in interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and assessing their geoeffectiveness are essential, since they can drive severe space weather. At 1 au, these FRs have an average duration of 1 day. Their most common magnetic features are large, smoothly rotating magnetic fields. Their manual detection has become a relatively common practice over decades, although visual detection can be time-consuming and subject to observer bias. Our study proposes a pipeline that utilizes two supervised binary classification machine-learning models trained with solar wind magnetic properties to automatically detect large-scale FRs and additionally determine their geoeffectiveness. The first model is used to generate a list of autodetected FRs. Using the properties of the southward magnetic field, the second model determines the geoeffectiveness of FRs. Our method identifies 88.6% and 80% of large-scale ICMEs (duration 1day) observed at 1au by the Wind and the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory missions, respectively. While testing with continuous solar wind data obtained from Wind, our pipeline detected 56 of the 64 large-scale ICMEs during the 2008–2014 period (recall = 0.875), but also many false positives (precision = 0.56), as we do not take into account any additional solar wind properties other than the magnetic properties. We find an accuracy of 0.88 when estimating the geoeffectiveness of the autodetected FRs using our method. Thus, in space-weather nowcasting and forecasting at L1 or any planetary missions, our pipeline can be utilized to offer a first-order detection of large-scale FRs and their geoeffectiveness.

Sanchita Pal↗