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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Particle Filtering for Model-Based Anomaly Detection in Sensor Networks

A novel technique has been developed for anomaly detection of rocket engine test stand (RETS) data. The objective was to develop a system that postprocesses a csv file containing the sensor readings and activities (time-series) from a rocket engine test, and detects any anomalies that might have occurred during the test. The output consists of the names of the sensors that show anomalous behavior, and the start and end time of each anomaly. In order to reduce the involvement of domain experts significantly, several data-driven approaches have been proposed where models are automatically acquired from the data, thus bypassing the cost and effort of building system models. Many supervised learning methods can efficiently learn operational and fault models, given large amounts of both nominal and fault data. However, for domains such as RETS data, the amount of anomalous data that is actually available is relatively small, making most supervised learning methods rather ineffective, and in general met with limited success in anomaly detection. The fundamental problem with existing approaches is that they assume that the data are iid, i.e., independent and identically distributed, which is violated in typical RETS data. None of these techniques naturally exploit the temporal information inherent in time series data from the sensor networks. There are correlations among the sensor readings, not only at the same time, but also across time. However, these approaches have not explicitly identified and exploited such correlations. Given these limitations of model-free methods, there has been renewed interest in model-based methods, specifically graphical methods that explicitly reason temporally. The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in a Linear Dynamic System approach assumes that the multi-dimensional test data is a mixture of multi-variate Gaussians, and fits a given number of Gaussian clusters with the help of the wellknown Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters thus learned are used for calculating the joint distribution of the observations. However, this GMM assumption is essentially an approximation and signals the potential viability of non-parametric density estimators. This is the key idea underlying the new approach.

Solano, Wanda↗

Joint statistics of cosmological constant and SUSY breaking in flux vacua with nilpotent Goldstino

We obtain the joint distribution of the gravitino mass and the cosmological constant in KKLT and LVS models with anti-D3 brane uplifting described via the nilpotent goldstino formalism. Moduli stabilisation (of both complex structure and Kähler moduli) is incorporated so that we sample only over points corresponding to vacua. Our key inputs are the distributions of the flux superpotential, the string coupling and the hierarchies of warped throats. In the limit of zero cosmological constant, we find that both in KKLT and LVS the distributions are tilted favourably towards lower scales of supersymmetry breaking.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Numerical Water Tracers in the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model: Implementation and Changes in Moisture Origin

Numerical water tracers are implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. Simulations performed with the water‐tag‐enabled model for both pre‐industrial and future greenhouse gas concentrations reveal a marked increase in the role of mid‐latitude and southern subtropical regions as exporters of atmospheric moisture—to the extratropical upper troposphere and the tropical free troposphere. For the latter, the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone increases cross‐hemispheric transport of subtropical water vapor to the Northern Hemisphere. In the polar regions, most of the lower tropospheric moistening instead arises from increases in local evaporation. These findings illustrate the utility of the water tags, underscore critical changes in global hydrologic cycle, and provide insight into atmospheric dynamics under future climate scenarios. For applications when a global grid is desired, we additionally propose a novel statistical reconstruction, based on copula modeling, of the joint distribution of origin of water vapor, which reduces the number of tracers from order $\mathcal{O}\left({n}^{2}\right)$to order $\mathcal{O}(n)$, substantially ameliorating the considerable computational cost of water tracers. This statistical reconstruction is particularly beneficial to the interpretation of the relationship between latitude and longitude of origin of moisture over the tropical oceans and in the lower troposphere over land.

copula modeling↗

Planck 2018 results XII. Galactic astrophysics using polarized dust emission

Observations of the submillimetre emission from Galactic dust, in both total intensity I and polarization, have received tremendous interest thanks to the Planck full-sky maps. In this paper we make use of such full-sky maps of dust polarized emission produced from the third public release of Planck data. As the basis for expanding on astrophysical studies of the polarized thermal emission from Galactic dust, we present full-sky maps of the dust polarization fraction p, polarization angle ψ, and dispersion function of polarization angles S . The joint distribution (one-point statistics) of p and NH confirms that the mean and maximum polarization fractions decrease with increasing NH. The uncertainty on the maximum observed polarization fraction, pmax = 22.0 -1.4 +3.5% at 353 GHz and 80' resolution, is dominated by the uncertainty on the Galactic emission zero level in total intensity, in particular towards diffuse lines of sight at high Galactic latitudes. Furthermore, the inverse behaviour between p and S found earlier is seen to be present at high latitudes. This follows the S ∝ p -1 relationship expected from models of the polarized sky (including numerical simulations of magnetohydrodynamical turbulence) that include effects from only the topology of the turbulent magnetic field, but otherwise have uniform alignment and dust properties. Thus, the statistical properties of p, ψ, and S for the most part reflect the structure of the Galactic magnetic field. Nevertheless, we search for potential signatures of varying grain alignment and dust properties. First, we analyse the product map S × p, looking for residual trends. While the polarization fraction p decreases by a factor of 3-4 between NH = 10 20 cm -2 and NH = 2 x 10 22 cm -2 , out of the Galactic plane, this product S × p only decreases by about 25%. Because S is independent of the grain alignment efficiency, this demonstrates that the systematic decrease in p with N H is determined mostly by the magnetic-field structure and not by a drop in grain alignment. This systematic trend is observed both in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) and in molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. Second, we look for a dependence of polarization properties on the dust temperature, as we would expect from the radiative alignment torque (RAT) theory. We find no systematic trend of S × p with the dust temperature T d , whether in the diffuse ISM or in the molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. In the diffuse ISM, lines of sight with high polarization fraction p and low polarization angle dispersion S tend, on the contrary, to have colder dust than lines of sight with low p and high S . We also compare the Planck thermal dust polarization with starlight polarization data in the visible at high Galactic latitudes. The agreement in polarization angles is remarkable, and is consistent with what we expect from the noise and the observed dispersion of polarization angles in the visible on the scale of the Planck beam. The two polarization emission-to-extinction ratios, R P/p and R S/V , which primarily characterize dust optical properties, have only a weak dependence on the column density, and converge towards the values previously determined for translucent lines of sight. We also determine an upper limit for the polarization fraction in extinction, p V /E(B - V), of 13% at high Galactic latitude, compatible with the polarization fraction p ≈ 20% observed at 353 GHz. Taken together, these results provide strong constraints for models of Galactic dust in diffuse gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Generating synthetic occupants for use in building performance simulation

Occupant behaviour simulation frameworks can employ synthetic populations to characterize occupancy and behavioural patterns in buildings based on observed demographic data at a certain geographical location. For buildings, very few synthetic occupant populations have been generated. This paper uses a Bayesian Networks (BN) structural learning approach to synthesize populations of occupants in a multi-family housing case study. Two additional cases of office occupants and senior housing residents are considered as a cross-case comparison. Furthermore, we draw upon the extended version of drivers-needs-actions-systems (DNAS) framework to guide the selection of variables and data imputation. Our results show that the BN approach is powerful in learning the structure of data sets. The synthetic data sets successfully match the joint distributions of the underlying combined data sets. Experiments on the multi-family housing particularly show better performance than the office and senior housing cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analyzing line-of-sight selection biases in galaxy-scale strong lensing with external convergence and shear

The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will dramatically increase the number of strong gravitational lensing systems, requiring precise modeling of line-of-sight (LOS) effects to mitigate biases in lensing observations and cosmological inferences. We develop a method to construct joint distributions of external convergence (κ ext ) and shear (γ ext ) for strong lensing LOS by aggregating large-scale structure simulations with high-resolution halo renderings and non-linear correction. Our approach captures both smooth background matter and perturbations from halos, enabling accurate modeling of LOS effects. Here, we apply non-linear LOS corrections to κ ext and γ ext that address the non-additive lensing effects caused by objects along the LOS in strong lensing. We find that, with a minimum image separation of 1.0'', non-linear LOS correction due to the presence of a dominant deflector slightly increases the ratio of quadruple to double lenses; this non-linear LOS correction also introduces systematic biases of ∼ 0.1% for galaxy-AGN lens in the inferred Hubble constant (H 0 ) if not accounted for. We also observe a 0.66% bias for galaxy-galaxy lenses on H 0 , and even larger biases 1.02% for galaxy-AGN systems if LOS effects are not accounted for. These results highlight the importance of LOS for precision cosmology. The publicly available code and datasets provide tools for incorporating LOS effects in future analyses.

Hubble constant↗

Boosting H I -Galaxy Cross-Clustering Signal through Higher-Order Cross-Correlations

After reionization, neutral hydrogen (${\rm H\, \small {I}}$) traces the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe, enabling ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ intensity mapping (IM) to capture the LSS in 3D and constrain key cosmological parameters. We present a new framework utilizing higher-order cross-correlations to study ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ clustering around galaxies, tested using real-space data from the IllustrisTNG300 simulation. This approach computes the joint distributions of k-nearest neighbor (kNN) optical galaxies and the ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ brightness temperature field smoothed at relevant scales (the kNN-field framework), providing sensitivity to all higher-order cross-correlations, unlike two-point statistics. To simulate ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ data from actual surveys, we add random thermal noise and apply a simple foreground cleaning model, filtering out Fourier modes of the brightness temperature field with k ∥ < k min,∥ . Under current levels of thermal noise and foreground cleaning, typical of a Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME)-like survey, the ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$-galaxy cross-correlation signal in our simulations, using the kNN-field framework, is detectable at >30σ across r = [3, 12] h –1 Mpc. In contrast, the detectability of the standard two-point correlation function (2PCF) over the same scales depends strongly on the foreground filter: a sharp k ∥ filter can spuriously boost detection to 8σ due to position-space ringing, whereas a less sharp filter yields no detection. Nonetheless, we conclude that kNN-field cross-correlations are robustly detectable across a broad range of foreground filtering and thermal noise conditions, suggesting their potential for enhanced constraining power over 2PCFs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unsupervised quantum circuit learning in high energy physics

Unsupervised training of generative models is a machine learning task that has many applications in scientific computing. Here, in this work, we evaluate the efficacy of using quantum circuit-based generative models to generate synthetic data of high energy physics processes. We use nonadversarial, gradient-based training of quantum circuit Born machines to generate joint distributions over two and three variables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Landau-Forbidden Quantum Criticality in Rydberg Quantum Simulators

The Landau-Ginzburg-Wilson theory of phase transitions precludes a continuous transition between two phases that spontaneously break distinct symmetries. However, quantum mechanical effects can intertwine the symmetries, giving rise to an exotic phenomenon called deconfined quantum criticality (DQC). Here, in this Letter, we study the ground state phase diagram of a one-dimensional array of individually trapped neutral atoms interacting strongly via Rydberg states, and demonstrate through extensive numerical simulations that it hosts a variety of symmetry-breaking phases and their transitions including DQC. We show how an enlarged, emergent continuous symmetry arises at the DQCs, which can be experimentally observed in the joint distribution of two distinct order parameters, obtained within measurement snapshots in the standard computational basis. Our findings highlight quantum simulators of Rydberg atoms not only as promising platforms to experimentally realize such exotic phenomena, but also as unique ones allowing access to physical properties not obtainable in traditional experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multi-sensor anomalous change detection in remote sensing imagery

Combining multiple satellite remote sensing sources provides a far richer, more frequent view of the earth than that of any single source; the challenge is in distilling these petabytes of heterogeneous sensor imagery into meaningful characterizations of the imaged areas. Meeting this challenge requires effective algorithms for combining multi-modal imagery over time to identify subtle but real changes among the intrinsic data variation. Here, we implement a joint-distribution framework for multi-sensor anomalous change detection (MSACD) that can effectively account for these differences in modality, and does not require any signal resampling of the pixel measurements. This flexibility enables the use of satellite imagery from different sensor platforms and modalities. We use multi-year construction of the SoFi Stadium in California as our testbed, and exploit synthetic aperture radar imagery from Sentinel-1 and multispectral imagery from both Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8. We show results for MSACD using real imagery with implanted, measurable changes, as well as real imagery with real, observable changes, including scaling our analysis over multiple years.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NCSU-iSSRL/WEC-Mobile-HLCD

High level co-design tools for the WEC-Mobile system. These tools use public MFWAM wave forecasts to generate joint distribution functions for likely system deployment sites and calculate feasible system dimensions using a dimensional analysis.

Alam, Minhazul [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (↗

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Model-Data for Joint Estimation of Biogeochemical Model Parameters from Multiple Experiments: A Bayesian Approach Applied to Mercury Methylation

This modeling archive supports the manuscript submitted for publication in the Environmental Modeling and Software. This study is supported by ORNL-SFA and IDEAS-Watershed. This study aims to improve calibration of complex biogeochemical models using datasets from multiple experiments targeting specific subprocesses. The proposed Bayesian joint-fitting scheme calibrates the entire biogeochemical model in one go using all the available datasets and estimate parameter uncertainties using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows for complete propagation of uncertainties and utilization of the information shared between different datasets. Mapping joint distribution of parameters guides model improvement by identifying null spaces in the parameter space. This archive contains files used to perform MCMC, post-process outputs and visualize results.

East Fork Poplar Creek↗

A Lumped Stochastic Model of Coupled Neutronic Assemblies

The objective of the present work is to apply the Harris ansatz to coupled assemblies in a lumped setting, i.e., ignoring the neutron phase dependence, which hitherto has not been considered. A Master equation for the single-time joint distribution of neutron number in each assembly, accounting for transfer of neutrons from one assembly to another via leakage transition probabilities and intercept or view factors is derived from which equations for the mean and variance in each assembly are developed. Because of the neutronic coupling, it is necessary to additionally compute the correlation function between pairs of assemblies which gives an expanded set of moment equations to solve. The reactivity of each assembly is allowed to vary with time, although a formal mechanism that is responsible for reactivity coupling between assemblies is not considered or proposed. Following Harris, it is then hypothesized that the number distribution in each assembly is a gamma distribution with assembly-specific mean and variance computed exactly from the moment equations. Illustrative numerical results are presented for the moments of a system of four coupled assemblies under various reactivity and neutronic coupling scenarios. The gamma distribution is then used to compute the probability that the neutron population exceeds a threshold value in any assembly. The report concludes with a discussion of recommended further work on this problem.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Copula based Damage Detection for Structural Health Monitoring

This project utilizes copulas for damage detection in a Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) application. A copula-based system was chosen for the benefit of multivariate joint distribution with a goal to detect damage based on how the system as a whole reacts rather than one or two sensors by themselves. Copulas are commonly used in the field of finance for risk modeling based on two or more random inputs. A few applications in the field of SHM and Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) have been researched mostly on risk or reliability of the structure. The goal of this project is to determine if a copula-based approach can be used for damage detection. An unsupervised learning method was desired to reduce the dimensionality, minimal training, and be a faster evaluation method than other unsupervised methods. If a copula method can be used to detect damage what additional information on the damage can be interpreted. The remainder of this report will go over the background needed, SHM methodology, SHM applications, conclusions, and future developments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Aerodynamic Sensitivities over Separable Shape Tensors

Here, we present a comprehensive aerodynamic sensitivity analysis of airfoil parameterization informed by separable shape tensors. This parameterization approach uniquely benefits the design process by isolating various well-studied shape characteristics, such as airfoil thickness, and providing a well-regulated low-dimensional parameter domain for aerodynamic designs. Exploring the aerodynamic sensitivities of this novel parameterization can provide valuable insights for more robust designs and future manufacturing efforts. We construct a data-driven parameter space of airfoils using principal geodesic analysis of separable shape tensors informed by a curated database containing almost 20,000 suitable engineering airfoils. Analyzing the shape reconstruction error and the maximum mean discrepancy between joint distributions of aerodynamic quantities, we study the dimensionality of the learned parameter space. This simple numerical experiment demonstrates a dramatic dimension reduction that retains design effectiveness and promotes regularity of the shape representations. Finally, we generate new airfoils and use the HAM2D Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes solver to predict lift, drag, and moment coefficients. We compute multiple sensitivity metrics to quantify and assert the consistency of parameter influence on the aerodynamic quantities. We also explore low-dimensional polynomial ridge approximations to motivate physical intuitions and offer explanations of the approximated sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dominant Wave Energy Systems and Conditional Wave Resource Characterization for Coastal Waters of the United States

Opportunities and constraints for wave energy conversion technologies and projects are evaluated by identifying and characterizing the dominant wave energy systems for United States (US) coastal waters using marginal and joint distributions of the wave energy in terms of the peak period, wave direction, and month. These distributions are computed using partitioned wave parameters generated from a 30 year WaveWatch III model hindcast, and regionally averaged to identify the dominant wave systems contributing to the total annual available energy ( A A E ) for eleven distinct US wave energy climate regions. These dominant wave systems are linked to the wind systems driving their generation and propagation. In addition, conditional resource parameters characterizing peak period spread, directional spread, and seasonal variability, which consider dependencies of the peak period, direction, and month, are introduced to augment characterization methods recommended by international standards. These conditional resource parameters reveal information that supports project planning, conceptual design, and operation and maintenance. The present study shows that wave energy resources for the United States are dominated by long-period North Pacific swells (Alaska, West Coast, Hawaii), short-period trade winds and nor’easter swells (East Coast, Puerto Rico), and wind seas (Gulf of Mexico). Seasonality, peak period spread, and directional spread of these dominant wave systems are characterized to assess regional opportunities and constraints for wave energy conversion technologies targeting the dominant wave systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A unified method for analyzing mission reliability for fault tolerant computer systems.

For fault-tolerant computer systems consisting of multiple classes of modules, a unified method for analyzing mission reliability is proposed and evaluated. The analysis proceeds by generalizing the notions of standby and N modular redundancy into a concept called hybrid-degraded redundancy. The probabilistic evaluation of the unified redundancy concept is then developed to yield, for a given modular class, the joint distribution of success and the number of nonfailed modules from that class, at special times. With this information, a Markov chain analysis gives the reliability of an entire sequence of phases (mission profile).

Bricker, J. L.↗