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Conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses in Kansas City

In an expanding urban environment, agriculture and urban land uses are the two primary competitors for regional land resources. As a result of an increasing awareness of the effects which urban expansion has upon the regional environment, the conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses has become a point of concern to urban planners. A study was undertaken for the Kansas City Metropolitan Region, to determine the rate at which prime agricultural land has been converted to urban land uses over a five year period from 1969 to 1974. Using NASA high altitude color infrared imagery acquired over the city in October, 1969 and in May, 1974 to monitor the extent and location of urban expansion in the interim period, it was revealed that 42% of that expansion had occurred upon land classified as having prime agricultural potential. This involved a total of 10,727 acres of prime agricultural land and indicated a 7% increase over the 1969 which showed that 35% of the urban area had been developed on prime agricultural land.

Shaklee, R. V.↗

Land Use and Land Cover Change, Urban Heat Island Phenomenon, and Health Implications: A Remote Sensing Approach

Land use and land cover maps of Atlanta Metropolitan Area in Georgia were produced from Landsat MSS and TM images for 1973,1979,1983,1987,1992, and 1997, spanning a period of 25 years. Dramatic changes in land use and land cover have occurred with loss of forest and cropland to urban use. In particular, low-density urban use, which includes largely residential use, has increased by over 119% between 1973 and 1997. These land use and land cover changes have drastically altered the land surface characteristics. An analysis of Landsat images revealed an increase in surface temperature and a decline in NDVI from 1973 to 1997. These changes have forced the development of a significant urban heat island effect and an increase in ground level ozone production to such an extent, that Atlanta has violated EPA's ozone level standard in recent years. The urban heat island initiated precipitation events that were identified between 1996 and 2000 tended to occur near high-density urban areas but outside the I-285 loop that traverses around the Central Business District, i.e. not in the inner city area, but some in close proximity to the highways. The health implications were investigated by comparing the spatial patterns of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, the two ingredients that form ozone by reacting with sunlight, with those of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. A clear core-periphery pattern was revealed for both VOC and NOx emissions, but the spatial pattern was more random in the cases of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Clearly, factors other than ozone pollution were involved in explaining the rates of these diseases. Further research is therefore needed to understand the health geography and its relationship to land use and land cover change as well as urban heat island effect. This paper illustrates the usefulness of a remote sensing approach for this purpose.

Lo, C. P.↗

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Kumar, Sujay↗

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive

This modeling archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025). This archive contains model input files and outputs from landscape-scale simulations conducted using ELM, the land model component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), at the Council NGEE Arctic field site (Council Road mile marker 71) on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Input data and model output from two sets of ELM simulations are provided. The first set of simulations were conducted with the two default ELM Arctic plant functional types (PFTs; broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and a C3 grass) and the second set of simulations were conducted with a set of nine Arctic-specific PFTs including nonvascular mosses and lichens, graminoids, forbs, evergreen dwarf shrubs, three height classes of deciduous shrubs (dwarf, low, and low to tall), and deciduous alder shrubs (Sulman et al., 2021). Parameter names and major parameter changes in the Arctic-specific PFT configuration are described in Sulman et al. (2021) and archived in the Sulman et al. (2021) dataset (see below). Simulations were spatially explicit, covering an approximately 6.4X3.3 km domain at the Council site with a spatial resolution of 100 m for a total of 2,112 simulated grid cells under each ELM PFT configuration. The modeling archive contains meteorological forcing (seven *.nc files and one *.txt file), a domain definition file (one *.nc files), land surface configuration files (two *.nc files), parameter files (two *.nc files), annual ELM output files spanning 1980-2014 (68 *.nc files), and a User’s Guide (*pdf file). Additional information on the provided files is in the “Modeling Archive Contents” section of the User’s Guide. Model outputs are aggregated to the column scale (i.e. PFT-specific outputs are not provided here).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗

Biofuels Induced Land Use Change Emissions: The Role of Implemented Land Use Emission Factors

Biofuels’ induced land-use change (ILUC) emissions have been widely studied over the past 15 years. Many studies have addressed uncertainties associated with these estimates. These studies have broadly examined uncertainties associated with the choice of economic models, their assumptions and parameters, and a few bio-physical variables. However, uncertainties in land-use emission factors that represent the soil and vegetation carbon contents of various land types across the world and are used to estimate carbon fluxes due to land conversions are mostly overlooked. This paper calls attention to this important omission. It highlights some important sources of uncertainty in land-use emissions factors, explores the range in these factors from established data sources, and compares the influence of their variability on ILUC emissions for several sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathways. The estimated land-use changes for each pathway are taken from a well-known computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-BIO. Two well-known carbon calculator models (CCLUB and AEZ-EF) that represent two different sets of emissions factors are used to convert the GTAP-BIO estimated land-use changes to ILUC emissions. The results show that the calculated ILUC emissions obtained from these carbon calculators for each examined SAF pathway are largely different, even for the same amortization time horizon. For example, the ILUC emissions values obtained from the AEZ-EF and CCLUB models for producing jet fuel from corn ethanol for a 25-year amortization period are 24.9 gCO 2 e/MJ and 15.96 gCO 2 e/MJ, respectively. This represents a 60% difference between the results of these two carbon calculators for the same set of land-use changes. The results show larger differences for other pathways as well.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Application of Remote Sensing Data to GIS Studies of Land Use, Land Cover, and Vegetation Mapping in the State of Hawaii

A land cover-vegetation map with a base classification system for remote sensing use in a tropical island environment was produced of the island of Hawaii for the State of Hawaii to evaluate whether or not useful land cover information can be derived from Landsat TM data. In addition, an island-wide change detection mosaic combining a previously created 1977 MSS land classification with the TM-based classification was produced. In order to reach the goal of transferring remote sensing technology to State of Hawaii personnel, a pilot project was conducted while training State of Hawaii personnel in remote sensing technology and classification systems. Spectral characteristics of young island land cover types were compared to determine if there are differences in vegetation types on lava, vegetation types on soils, and barren lava from soils, and if they can be detected remotely, based on differences in pigments detecting plant physiognomic type, health, stress at senescence, heat, moisture level, and biomass. Geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) were used to assist in image rectification and classification. GIS was also used to produce large-format color output maps. An interactive GIS program was written to provide on-line access to scanned photos taken at field sites. The pilot project found Landsat TM to be a credible source of land cover information for geologically young islands, and TM data bands are effective in detecting spectral characteristics of different land cover types through remote sensing. Large agriculture field patterns were resolved and mapped successfully from wildland vegetation, but small agriculture field patterns were not. Additional processing was required to work with the four TM scenes from two separate orbits which span three years, including El Nino and drought dates. Results of the project emphasized the need for further land cover and land use processing and research. Change in vegetation composition was noted in the change detection image.

Hogan, Christine A.↗

Noctis Landing: A Proposed Landing Site/Exploration Zone for Human Missions to the Surface of Mars

The proposed Noctis Landing Site/Exploration Zone (LS/EZ) is shown in Figure 1. Our preliminary study suggests that the proposed site meets all key Science and Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) requirements. The site is of significant interest, as the EZ not only offers a large number and wide range of regions of interest (ROIs) for short-term exploration, it is also located strategically at the crossroads between Tharsis and Valles Marineris, which are key for long-term exploration. The proposed site contains Regions of Interest (ROIs) that meet the following Science requirements: -­‐ Access to (1) deposits with a high preservation potential for evidence of past habitability and fossil biosignatures and (2) sites that are promising for present habitability. The site presents a wide variety of ROIs qith likely aqueous features and deposits, including sinous channels and valleys, slope gullies, lobate debris aprons, impact craters with lobate ejecta flows, and "bathtub ring" deposits. Neutron spectrometry also suggests hydrogen is present within the topmost 0.3 m or so of 4 to 10 wt% WEH (Water Equivalent Hydrogen). -­‐ Noachian and/or Hesperian rocks in a stratigraphic context that have a high likelihood of containing trapped atmospheric gases. Collapsed canyon rim material with preserved stratigraphy is abundantly present and accessible. -­‐ Exposures of at least two crustal units that have regional or global extents, that are suitable for radiometric dating, and that have relative ages that sample a significant range of martian geological time. Canyons floors in Ius Chasma, Tithonium Chasma, and plateau tops on Tharsis and in Sinai Planum offer access to distinct crustal units of regional extent. -­‐ Access to outcrops with linked morphological and/or geochemical signatures indicative of aqueous or groundwater/ mineral interactions. Iron and sulfur-bearing deposits on canyon floors in Noctis Labyrinthus, and in Ius Chasma (IC) and Tithonium Chasma (TC) offer many such outcrop options. -­‐ Identifiable stratigraphic contacts and cross-cutting relationships from which relative ages can be determined. In place and collapsed canyon walls in NL, TC, and IC offer such opportunities. -­‐ Other types of ROIs include access points to surrounding plateau top areas for longer term regional exploration. A key attribute of the proposed Noctic Landing site is its strategic location to allow the shortest possible surface excusions to Tharsis and Valles Marineris (VM). VM is the feature and region on Mars that exposes the longest record of Mars' geology and evolution through time. Tharsis is the region of Mars that has experienced the longest and most extensive volcanic history, and might still be volcanically active. Some of the youngest lava flows on Mars have been identified on the western flanks of the Tharsis Bulge, i.e., within driving range of future longrange (500 - 1000 km) pressurized rover traverses. The proposed site also contains ROIs that offer the following Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) characteristics: -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to (1) be used as feedstock for water-generating in situ resource utilization (ISRU) processes and (2) yield significant quantities (greater than 100 MT) of water. The raw material is likely in the form of hydrated minerals, and possibly ice/regolith mix. The top of the raw material deposit is at the surface. -­‐ Access to a region where infrastructure can be emplaced or constructed. This region is less than 5 km from the LS and contains flat, stable terrain. The region exhibits evidence for an abundant source of loose regolith. Several deep pits in the area combined with the availability of sand suggests that some natural terrain features can be adapted for construction purposes. -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to be used as metal feedstock for ISRU and construction purposes. Iron and sulfur-rich mineral surface deposits have been identified in CRISM data in many locations in this area. Noctis Landing is the lowest-altitude location on Mars that straddles both the Tharsis region (above average geothermal gradients) and Valles Marineris (minimal crustal thickness from surface (valley floor) to a subsurface liquid water table. Noctis Landing has the potential for being an ideal site for eventual deep drilling on Mars to access deep subsurface liquid water and potentially encountering extant life. Available data remains insufficient to fully qualify the Noctis Landing site. Additional remote sensing data (visible, Near and Mid-IR, and radar) and surface reconnaissance via a high-mobility robotic rover are recommended. In particular, it will be important to assess the trafficability of the site, and its potential for yielding water and metals as a resource. Access to plateau tops from the Noctis Landing site on the canyon floor should be demonstrated. Future exploration of the site would also be enhanced significantly by the availability of robotic (tele-operatable) surveying and sample-collecting drones. Testing of the use of such collaborative science and exploration technologies should be conducted at terrestrial sites such as the Haughton-Mars Project site on Devon Island, High Arctic, among others. Note: Noctis Landing is not an official Mars nomenclature name for this location. Because the area of the proposed LS/EZ had no name, and because it is close to Noctis Labyrinthus to the West while being distinct from it, the provisional name Noctis Landing is proposed. Noctis means night in Latin.

Lee, Pascal↗

Mars Entry, Descent, Landing, and Ascent Systems Sensitivities to Landing Site and Atmospheric Dust

Plans for human missions to Mars continue to go through several architectural changes, dating all the way back to the 1950s [1]. The continuous study, reformulation, and refinement of Mars architectures and system concepts is necessary in order to incorporate evolving mission objectives, technology advancements, and growth in the body of knowledge regarding human factors and the various environments of human space travel. This evolution has continued into the 21st century, with architectures concepts such as NASA’s Design Reference Architecture 5.0 in 2009 [2], The Evolvable Mars Campaign in 2016 [3], and as recently as 2020, an architecture focused on a crewed mission as early as the 2030s that aims to minimizing crewed duration and infrastructure investment for the first mission [4]. Within these architectures, numerous studies around the current concept designs for Mars entry, descent, landing, and ascent (EDLA) systems have been performed over the last half a decade [[5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10]]. Despite the breadth and depth of these studies, landing site, a key design parameter relevant to the design of EDLA systems, has remained nebulous over the years, largely due to the ever evolving mission objectives and architecture concept over the decades. However, the specific landing site has direct impact on the altitude and atmospheric conditions, which subsequently impact the design of EDLA systems. To accommodate the lack of a specific landing site, a baseline reference altitude of 0 km relative to the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), which is similar to an Earth sea level reference, has typically been selected and fixed for these past studies. Similarly, a baseline reference atmosphere has typically been utilized in these studies, either the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model [11], or a general 1982 standard warm, high pressure atmosphere model derived from Viking lander data [12]. Fig. 1 shows the range of elevations across the surface of Mars. Current architectures are focused on latitudes greater than 30 degrees north in an effort to ensure access to frozen water ice. From the figure, it is quickly evident that elevations over the range of longitudes at or above this latitude are significantly varied between roughly -4 to +4 km MOLA. Based on these observations, initial qualitative assessments of the impacts of landing site elevation on EDLA systems were performed. Fig. 2 depicts the expected trends in EDLA system mass for variations in both land site latitude and elevation. The background coloring is a qualitative evaluation of the current knowledge on ice water availability at the latitudes. Further modeling and simulation was performed to obtain numerical predictions of sensitivities to these parameters. Results indicate up to +2% to -4% mass variation from the current baseline Mars Ascent Vehicle concept, with the potential for greater than 6% mass variation at latitudes greater than 70 degrees north. However, variations in the descent system due to landing site were much more significant with mass variations in the range of -15% to +30% around the current baseline Mars Descent System concept. Additionally, Fig. 3 provides a depiction of potential Mars atmospheric density variations with both dust and Martian season. Though the Martian atmosphere is relatively thin compared to Earth’s atmosphere, it still poses significant impact on the design of EDLA systems. Variations in atmospheric density indicated by this slice of data would have significant impact on the design of EDLA systems. However, due to the highly complex nature of atmospheric flight, a qualitative assessment could not be performed. Rather, sensitivity results relied on modeling and simulation to provide numerical results for sensitivities on the current EDLA design concepts under consideration. Understanding these sensitivities is vital to the overall systems design of a Mars architecture. The resulting mass impacts on EDLA systems, driven by landing site elevation and dust level variations, has rippling impacts throughout the architecture that, ultimately, impact the viability of the architecture. Results showed fairly minor mass impacts to the current Mars Ascent Vehicle baseline configuration, roughly -0.6% to + 0.4% mass variations, while the Mars Descent System say greater variations due to dust, roughly -4% to +6% around the baseline concept.

EDLA↗

Modeling Land-Atmosphere Coupling at Cloud-Resolving Scale Within the Multiple Atmosphere Multiple Land (MAML) Framework in SP-E3SM

Representing subgrid variabilities of land surface processes and their upscaled effects is crucial for global climate modeling. Here, we implement a Multiple Atmosphere Multiple Land (MAML) framework in the superparamaterized version of E3SM (SP32 E3SM) to explicitly simulate the subgrid variabilities of land states and fluxes at cloud-resolving scale and their interactions with atmosphere. Comparing to the standard SP-E3SM in which all the atmospheric columns of the cloud resolving model embedded within the global atmospheric model grid interact with the same land surface (i.e., Multiple Atmosphere Single Land (MASL)), the impact of MAML on the strength of land-atmosphere coupling is limited, partly because the current implementation mainly facilitates one-way coupling between the cloud-resolving model and the land surface model. Despite such limitation, MAML increases the surface latent heat flux at the expense of sensible heat flux, and increases precipitation in India, Amazon, and Central Africa, reducing the model dry bias compared to the standard SP-E3SM. By employing a normalized gross moist stability (NGMS) diagnostic framework, we find that the increase in precipitation minus evaporation (PE) is primarily driven by the change in large-scale moisture convergence, particularly by the increase of water vapor in the lower atmosphere, while the local effect of total surface energy flux plays a minor role in the P-E change. More specifically, MAML changes the surface energy partitioning (evaporative fraction), increases the atmosphere water vapor, and further increases P-E by decreasing the NGMS. Finally, future development in the MAML framework is discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biophysical Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Subgrid Temperature in CMIP6 Models

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating the Interconnections Between Groundwater and Land Surface Processes Through the Coupled NASA Land Information System and ParFlow Environment

Understanding the interactions between the atmosphere, the land, and the subsurface is fundamental to hydrology and is critical for a better assessment of the impacts of climate change and human management on hydrological systems. However, many land surface models simplify the subsurface hydrology and thereby these interactions. In this study, we couple the land surface model Noah-MP included in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the integrated hydrologic model ParFlow (ParFlow-LIS) using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the National United Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC). This coupling improves the simulation of water and energy cycle processes by adding the three-dimensional variably saturated and heterogeneous flow in the subsurface using sophisticated and nonlinear physics-based equations as well as the advances in satellite remote sensing-based data assimilation of the land surface, thereby benefiting the integrated hydrologic modeling and data assimilation community. We use the High Plains aquifer, located in the central United States, as a testbed to evaluate the coupled ParFlow-LIS system. The new ParFlow-LIS system accounts for the effects of topographically driven flows on the land surface, producing more fine-scale patterns of land surface states and fluxes than standalone LIS. In addition, ParFlow-LIS enables the consideration of the effect of subsurface water storage on evapotranspiration. This is particularly important in areas and times with dry soils, such as during drought conditions or in the presence of a cone of depression due to pumping.

land surface modeling↗

Parameterizing Perennial Bioenergy Crops in Version 5 of the Community Land Model Based on Site‐Level Observations in the Central Midwestern United States

Abstract With projected expansion of biofuel production at a global scale, there is a pressing need to develop adequate representation of bioenergy crops in land surface models to help effectively quantify the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of its associated land use changes. This study implements two new perennial bioenergy crops, Miscanthus and switchgrass, into the Community Land Model Version 5 based on site‐level observations from the midwestern United States by modifying parameters associated with photosynthesis, phenology, allocation, decomposition, and carbon cost of nitrogen uptake and integrating concomitantly land management practices. Sensitivity analyses indicate that carbon and energy fluxes of the perennial crops are most sensitive to photosynthesis and phenology parameters. Validation of simulated fluxes against site‐level measurements demonstrates that the model is capable of capturing the overall patterns of energy and carbon fluxes, as well as physiological transitions from leaf emergence to senescence. Compared to annual crops, perennial crops feature longer growing season, greater leaf areas, and higher productivity, leading to increased transpiration, lower annual runoff, and larger carbon uptake. The model simulations suggest that with higher CO 2 assimilation rates and lower demands for nutrients and water, high‐yielding perennial crops are promising alternatives of bioenergy feedstocks compared to traditional annual crops not only for mitigating climate change but also for environmental conservation purposes by reducing fertilizer application and therefore alleviating surface‐ and ground‐water contaminations. Although the local‐scale simulations shed light on potential benefits of using perennial grasses as bioenergy feedstocks, quantifying consequences of their plantations at larger scales warrants additional investigation.

Cheng, Yanyan↗

United States multi-sector land use and land cover base maps to support human and Earth system models

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) require current and future projections of land use and landcover change (LULC) to simulate land-atmospheric interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. Among the most utilized land systems in ESMs are the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) products. Regional studies also use these products by extending coarse projections to finer resolutions via downscaling or by using multisector dynamic (MSD) models. One such MSD model is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which has its own independent land module, but often relies on CLM or LUH2 as spatial inputs for its base years. However, this requires harmonization of thematically incongruent land systems at multiple spatial resolutions, leading to uncertainty and error propagation. To resolve these issues, we develop a thematically consistent LULC system for the conterminous United States adaptable to multiple MSD frameworks to support research at a regional level. Using empirically derived spatial products, we developed a series of base maps for multiple contemporary years of observation at a 30-m resolution that support flexibility and interchangeability amongst LUH2, CLM, and GCAM classification systems.

Oliver, Jay↗

The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25–80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5–5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO 2 /kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Interdisciplinary Workshop on the Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics (Final Report)

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) convened a week-long interdisciplinary science workshop from September 15-20, 2019 entitled, “Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics.” The purpose of the workshop was to advance research on the impacts of land use and land management on climate, carbon emissions, and extremes, as well as the impact of land-use change on important societal issues such as food, water, and energy security. The workshop was co-chaired by Kate Calvin (PNNL), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), and Dave Lawrence (National Center for Atmospheric Research). Co-funders of the workshop included NASA, NOAA, and travel support for European colleagues through CRESCENDO. This workshop brought together 31 professionals with expertise across biogeochemistry, climate impacts, mitigation, land use datasets, and societal impacts to coordinate on upcoming research and publications on the role of biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface and their implications for climate, as conducted through the Land Use model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP), which is part of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A primary outcome of the meeting was the definition and planning of a series of LUMIP papers that will rely on the LUMIP and CMIP6 simulations. By the end of the meeting more than twenty papers and paper lead authors had been identified and scoped out. Around ten of these papers were submitted by the December 31, 2019 IPCC deadline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of a Flexible Aircraft TakeOff and Landing Analysis /FATOLA/ computer program using flight landing data

A multiple-degree-of-freedom takeoff and landing analysis, Flexible Aircraft TakeOff and Landing Analysis computer program (FATOLA), was used to predict the landing behavior of a rigid-body X-24B reentry research vehicle and of a flexible-body modified-delta-wing supersonic YF-12 research aircraft. The analytical predictions were compared with flight test data for both research vehicles. Predicted time histories of vehicle motion and attitude, landing-gear strut stroke, and axial force transmitted from the landing gear to the airframe during the landing impact and rollout compared well with the actual time histories. Based on the comparisons presented, the versatility and validity of the FATOLA program for predicting landing dynamics of aircraft has been demonstrated.

Carden, H. D.↗

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change around Mobile Bay, Alabama from 1974-2008

This document summarizes the major findings of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project led by NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) in conjunction with a regional collaboration network of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA). NASA researchers processed and analyzed multi-temporal Landsat data to assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, AL between 1974 and 2008. Our goal was to create satellite-based LULC data products using methods that could be transferable to other coastal areas of concern within the Gulf of Mexico. The Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MBNEP) is the primary end-user, however, several other state and local groups may benefit from the project s data products that will be available through NOAA-NCDDC s Regional Ecosystem Data Management program. Mobile Bay is a critical ecologic and economic region in the Gulf of Mexico and to the entire country. Mobile Bay was designated as an estuary of national significance in 1996. This estuary receives the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the United States. It provides vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreationally important fish species. It has exceptional aquatic and terrestrial bio-diversity, however, its estuary health is influenced by changing LULC patterns, such as urbanization. Mobile and Baldwin counties have experienced a population growth of 1.1% and 20.5% from 2000-2006. Urban expansion and population growth are likely to accelerate with the construction and operation of the ThyssenKrupp steel mill in the northeast portion of Mobile County. Land-use and land-cover change can negatively impact Gulf coast water quality and ecological resources. The conversion of forest to urban cover types impacts the carbon cycle and increases the freshwater and sediment in coastal waters. Increased freshwater runoff decreases salinity and increases the turbidity of coastal waters, thus impacting the growth potential of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), which is critical nursing ground for many Gulf fish species. A survey of Mobile Bay SAV showed widespread decreases since the 1940s. Prior to our project, coastal environmental managers in Baldwin and Mobile counties needed more understanding of the historical LULC for properly assessing the impacts of urbanization. In particular, more information on the location and extent of changing urbanization LULC patterns was needed to aid LULC planning and to assess predictions of future LULC patterns. Our products will assist the coastal environmental managers and land-use planners in making better community growth planning decisions. Our project also will help to establish a historical baseline of LULC distributions, which is a fundamental need in any stewardship plan. The primary research objective of our project was to produce historic and current geospatial LULC change products across a 34-year time frame. A multi-decadal coastal LULC change product was the major project deliverable. The geographic extent and nature of change was quantified and assessed for the upland herbaceous, barren, open water, urban, upland forest, woody wetland, and non-woody wetlanddominated land cover types. We focused on regional analyses of decadal-scale urban expansion and watershed-scaled analyses of LULC change for multiple areas of concern to the Mobile Bay NEP (Figure A). We used the following dates to derive LULC classification products from Landsat data: 1974, 1979, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2005, and 2008. We assessed the accuracy of our products using randomly sampled locations and digital geospatial reference data including field survey data, high resolution orthorectified aerial photography, high resolution multispectral and panchromatic satellite data displays (from QuickBird and Corona sensors), digital elevation model data, and National Wetlands Inventory wetland cover type data. NOAA s Coastal Change Assessment Program s (C-CAP) and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) procts were used for qualitative comparison in assessing map accuracy. We calculated an average overall classification accuracy of 87% with similar overall accuracies for the older (MSS) and newer (TM and ETM) Landsat LULC products.

Ellis, Jean↗

Land Surface Modeling Over the Dry Chaco: The Impact of Model Structures, and Soil, Vegetation and Land Cover Parameters

In this study, we tested the impact of a revised set of soil, vegetation and land cover parameters on the performance of three different state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The impact of this revision was tested over the South American Dry Chaco, an ecoregion characterized by deforestation and forest degradation since the 1980s. Most large-scale LSMs may lack the ability to correctly represent the ongoing deforestation processes in this region, because most LSMs use climatological vegetation indices and static land cover information. The default LIS parameters were revised with improved soil parameters, satellite-based interannually varying vegetation indices (leaf area index and green vegetation fraction) instead of climatological vegetation indices, and yearly land cover information instead of static land cover. A relative comparison in terms of water budget components and “efficiency space” for various baseline and revised experiments showed that large regional and long-term differences in the simulated water budget partitioning relate to different LSM structures, whereas smaller local differences resulted from updated soil, vegetation and land cover parameters. Furthermore, the different LSM structures redistributed water differently in response to these parameter updates. A time-series comparison of the simulations to independent satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration and brightness temperature (Tb) showed that no LSM setup significantly outperformed another for the entire region and that not all LSM simulations improved with updated parameter values. However, the revised soil parameters generally reduced the bias between simulated surface soil moisture and pixel-scale in situ observations and the bias between simulated Tb and regional Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) observations. Our results suggest that the different hydrological responses of various LSMs to vegetation changes may need further attention to gain benefits from vegetation data assimilation.

Michiel Maertens↗