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44 records · Page 3

Flood and Landslide Applications of High Time Resolution Satellite Rain Products

Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Could Road Constructions Be More Hazardous Than an Earthquake in Terms of Mass Movement?

Roads can have a significant impact on the frequency of mass wasting events in mountainous areas. However, characterizing the extent and pervasiveness of mass movements over time has rarely been documented due to limitations in available data sources to consistently map such events. We monitored the evolution of a road network and assessed its effect on mass movements for a 11-year window in Arhavi, Turkey. The main road construction projects run in the area are associated with a hydroelectric power plant as well as other road extension works and are clearly associated with the vast majority (90.1%) of mass movements in the area. We also notice that the overall number and size of the mass movements are much larger than in the naturally-occurring comparison area. This means that the sediment load originating from the anthropogenically induced mass movements is larger than its counterpart associated with naturally occurred landslides. Notably, this extra sediment load could cause river channel aggregation, reduce accommodation space and as a consequence, it could lead to an increase in the probability and severity of flooding along the river channel. This marks a strong and negative effect of human activities on the natural course of earth surface processes. We also compare frequency-area distributions of human-induced mass movements mapped in this study and co-seismic landslide inventories from the literature. By doing so, we aim to better understand the consequences of human effects on mass movements in a comparative manner. Our findings show that the damage generated by the road construction in terms of sediment loads to river channels is compatible with the possible effect of a theoretical earthquake with a magnitude greater than Mw=6.0.

Hakan Tanyas↗

Evaluation of Instability Phenomena in Sands: Plane Strain Versus Triaxial Conditions

Extensive research was carried out in the 1950s on theories of plasticity to extend the concepts developed for metals to materials that failed according to the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. The new ideas made it possible to merge the two distinct concepts (strength and deformation techniques) into one that relies on better understanding of plasticity and resulted in a rapid growth in the field of constitutive modeling of soil behavior. At the same time advanced experimental apparatuses and laboratory procedures were developed to calibrate the models. However, most laboratory experiments on granular materials are performed under Conventional Triaxial Conditions (CTC) for the purposes of evaluating constitutive behavior and stability properties, whereas most geotechnical field problems are closer to the Plane Strain (PS) condition. The triaxial tests performed in most laboratories comprise a simplification over in situ states and allow easier and robust experimentation. Most landslide problems, failure of soils beneath shallow and deep foundations, and failure of retaining structures, are cases that can generally be considered as plane strain. Strength and deformation characteristics of granular materials loaded in plane strain may be considerably different from those observed in CTC. Most studies on sands were limited to evaluating the constitutive behavior and in some cases extended to briefly describing the associated instability phenomena. This paper presents the results of a series of PS and CTC experiments performed on fine uniform silica sand known as F-75 Ottawa sand. Advanced analysis techniques were used to study the instability phenomena, which yielded very accurate measurements of shear bands occurrences and patterns. Destructive thin-sectioning technique along with monitoring the specimen surface deformation was used in the PS experiments and Computed Tomography (CT) was used to investigate the progress of primary and secondary shear bands in specimens subjected to CTC. Comparison between the two cases will be presented and discussed.

Alshibli, Khalid A.↗

Evaluating and Exploring Extreme Precipitation in CHIRPS3, CHIMES, and the Climate Hazards Station Database

Between 2015 and 2019, the impacts and losses associated with droughts, floods, and hurricanes surged through the interaction of increasing exposure and more extreme weather and climate (Funk 2021). In 2020, the Aon-Benfield Reinsurance Company reported that cyclones, floods, and droughts resulted in $165 billion (USD) in losses. For 2020, EM-DAT lists 363 flood, landslide, storm, and drought events impacting some 98 million people. As hazards mount, models indicate more variable precipitation, and observations indicate increasing extremes in humid regions, yet the small number of available gauge observations is declining. In this talk we briefly introduce two new resources: version 3 of the 1981-near present Climate Hazards center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS3) archive, and the 2000-near present Climate Hazards IMErg with Stations archive (CHIMES). The satellite-only CHIRP3 and CHIME components are based, respectively, on geostationary thermal infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) values and the NASA GPM IMERGlate product. These archives benefit from thousands of station observations. In addition to standard global sources, the Climate Hazards station database includes about 5,000 additional stations in humid tropical and sub-tropical areas associated with likely increases in extreme rainfall. While effectively monitoring extreme precipitation is important to humanitarian agencies like FEWS NET, and to hydrologic modeling applications (a, b), evaluations of the widely used CHIRPS2 product indicate a propensity to underestimate extremes. Here, we explain the source of this problem. Then, focusing on pentad totals in 12 well-gauged regions, we use the high-quality gauge-based REGEN dataset to show that CHIRP3 and CHIME perform substantially better than CHIRP2. We examine trends in extremes in these validation regions, comparing REGEN results with values from the satellite-only CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME and the gauge-enhanced CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME. Trends in dry and humid regions are contrasted and compared. We conclude with global evaluations of the pentad CHIRP3, CHIRPS3, CHIME, CHIMES, and Climate Hazards station database products. How does the performance of the shorter period of record CHIME compare with CHIRP3? We anticipate that the sophisticated microwave-based IMERGlate inputs into CHIME will perform better. Where do we see the largest increases in extremes in these products? How well might CHIRPS3 and CHIMES perform in the context of humanitarian assistance efforts?

C Funk↗

MTUQ: a framework for estimating moment tensors, point forces, and their uncertainties

SUMMARY We introduce MTUQ, an open-source Python package for seismic source estimation and uncertainty quantification, emphasizing flexibility and operational scalability. MTUQ provides MPI-parallelized grid search and global optimization capabilities, compatibility with 1-D and 3-D Green’s function database formats, customizable data processing, C-accelerated waveform and first-motion polarity misfit functions, and utilities for plotting seismic waveforms and visualizing misfit and likelihood surfaces. Applicability to a range of full- and constrained-moment tensor, point force, and centroid inversion problems is possible via a documented application programming interface, accompanied by example scripts and integration tests. We demonstrate the software using three different types of seismic events: (1) a 2009 intraslab earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska; (2) an episode of the 2021 Barry Arm landslide in Alaska; and (3) the 2017 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea underground nuclear test. With these events, we illustrate the well-known complementary character of body waves, surface waves, and polarities for constraining source parameters. We also convey the distinct misfit patterns that arise from each individual data type, the importance of uncertainty quantification for detecting multimodal or otherwise poorly constrained solutions, and the software’s flexible, modular design.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A View from Above: Earth Observations

Since the 1960s, satellites have been looking down at the Earth to monitor weather patterns and track severe storms, observe how our land surface is changing and responding to hydrometerological extremes, and even to sense how the Earth's crust is deforming from earthquakes and volcanoes. Space and airborne platforms can provide unique views of the disaster lifecycle, informing pre-event mitigation and preparedness, emergency response following an event, and monitoring longer-term recovery. These remotely-sensed data, products and models can provide a global perspective to see beyond administrative boundaries, reach remote places where in situ observations are di cult or non-existent, and provide the necessary context and situational awareness to aid in disaster response. So how do these platforms work? Instruments aboard satellites use different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum to passively or actively observe energy across a range of wavelengths, which can be turned into meaningful data on geophysical, atmospheric, and hydrological variables. e US has had a broad range of Earth observation (EO) platforms delivering open data for scientific research and societal benefits for decades. e Landsat programme, a joint initiative between the US Geological Survey (USGS) and NASA, has the world's longest continuous collection of space-based satellite imagery of the Earth, extending from 1972 to present. e Landsat satellites provide visible, near infrared, and thermal data that are used to support emergency response and disaster relief by mapping changes in water during floods, and dramatic land surface changes, including those resulting from landslides, wild res, severe weather, volcanic plumes, and dust storms.

FEMA↗

Preserving and Curating the Moon: Adventures in Lunar Core Processing

The lunar crust is the most easily accessible part of the Moon to both remote sensing and sample analyses and provides an archive of information about planetary formation, crustal evolution, and contains a wealth of information about the origin of the Earth-Moon system [e.g., 1-5]. The Apollo mission returned 382 kg of rocks, soil and core samples. Studies of these lunar samples are crucial for our understanding of the Moon’s formation and geological evolution, and for the past 50 years these returned samples have provided the foundation for lunar science [5]. The returned samples are stored and cared for in the lunar curation facility at NASA’s Johnson Space Center. This facility is comprised of a large suite of clean rooms, sample vaults for pristine and return samples, thin section labs, core and saw rooms, storage and working areas, and ancillary labs all designed to minimize contamination from the environment and other samples. Some of the returned samples were intentionally set aside and left unopened. Recently, the Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis (ANGSA) initiative was designed to examine these pristine samples so the next generation of lunar scientists can further our insight into the Moon’s history. Here, we present the meticulous process that involves preparing for, and ultimately opening, one of the unopened core samples: Apollo 17 drive tube 73002,0,which was collected on the Moon from a landslide deposit near Lara Crater by astronauts Gene Cernan and Jack Schmitt. In order to open, examine, and curate 73002,0withminimalpotential contamination, great care had to be taken prior to opening its container. Beginning18 months before extrusion of the sample, all core processing equipment was pulled out of storage, identified, sorted, cleaned, and purged with nitrogen gas. However, limited institutional memory has made this step challenging as most of the former core processors from the Apollo area have retired or passed away. Twelvemonths prior to extrusion, table-top rehearsals were initiated to identify equipment and learn how it fits together and operates. Five months before extruding the real core, preparations further evolved to include the extrusion and dissection of a lunar core simulant. In addition, a mock-up glovebox was designed and built to allow for a more realistic practice environment. One month prior to extrusion, the actual core cabinet was prepared for use, which included fitting it with lights, a webcam, and power. The tool and equipment cleaning procedure was also modified to include increased cleanliness and sterility requirements. While still sealed, the core was CT scanned at the University of Texas at Austin to maximize its scientific return. Days before the extrusion, witness plates and foil were deployed inside the core cabinet to monitor potential particle and organic contamination within the cabinet. On Nov. 5th, 2019, core sample 73002,0 was successfully opened and extruded(Fig.1). Dissection of 73002,0 began immediately afterwards and is still under way. Processing this sample will help us prepare for future sampling missions and core extrusions and will enable new scientific discoveries about the Moon.

C H Krysher↗

The Urban Environmental Monitoring/100 Cities Project: Legacy of the First Phase and Next Steps

The Urban Environmental Monitoring (UEM) project, now known as the 100 Cities Project, at Arizona State University (ASU) is a baseline effort to collect and analyze remotely sensed data for 100 urban centers worldwide. Our overarching goal is to use remote sensing technology to better understand the consequences of rapid urbanization through advanced biophysical measurements, classification methods, and modeling, which can then be used to inform public policy and planning. Urbanization represents one of the most significant alterations that humankind has made to the surface of the earth. In the early 20th century, there were less than 20 cities in the world with populations exceeding 1 million; today, there are more than 400. The consequences of urbanization include the transformation of land surfaces from undisturbed natural environments to land that supports different forms of human activity, including agriculture, residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure such as roads and other types of transportation. Each of these land transformations has impacted, to varying degrees, the local climatology, hydrology, geology, and biota that predate human settlement. It is essential that we document, to the best of our ability, the nature of land transformations and the consequences to the existing environment. The focus in the UEM project since its inception has been on rapid urbanization. Rapid urbanization is occurring in hundreds of cities worldwide as population increases and people migrate from rural communities to urban centers in search of employment and a better quality of life. The unintended consequences of rapid urbanization have the potential to cause serious harm to the environment, to human life, and to the resulting built environment because rapid development constrains and rushes decision making. Such rapid decision making can result in poor planning, ineffective policies, and decisions that harm the environment and the quality of human life. Slower, more thought-out, decision making could result in more favorable outcomes. The harm to the environment includes poor air quality, soil erosion, polluted rivers and aquifers, and loss of wildlife habitat. Human life is then threatened because of increased potential for disease spreading, human conflict, environmental hazards, and diminished quality of life. The built environment is potentially threatened when cities are built in areas that can be impacted by events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, fires, and landslides. Our goals include assessing the threat of such events on cities and the people living there.

Stefanov, William L.↗