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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2022

Optimal Estimation Framework for Ocean Color Atmospheric Correction and Pixel-level Uncertainty Quantification

Ocean color remote sensing requires compensation for atmospheric scattering and absorption (aerosol, Rayleigh, and trace gases), referred to as atmospheric correction (AC). AC allows inference of parameters such as spectrally resolved remote sensing reflectance ( R rs )(λ) ; sr 1 ) at the ocean surface from the top-of-atmosphere reflectance. Often, the uncertainty of this process is not fully explored. Bayesian inference techniques provide a simultaneous AC and uncertainty assessment via a full posterior distribution of the relevant variables, given the prior distribution of those variables and the radiative transfer (RT) likelihood function. Given uncertainties in the algorithm inputs, the Bayesian framework enables better constraints on the AC process by using the complete spectral information compared to traditional approaches that use only a subset of bands for AC. This paper investigates a Bayesian inference research method (Optimal Estimation, OE) for ocean color AC by simultaneously retrieving atmospheric and ocean properties using all visible and near-infrared spectral bands. The OE algorithm analytically approximates the posterior distribution of parameters based on normality assumptions and provides a potentially viable operational algorithm with a reduced computational expense. We developed a Neural Network (NN) RT forward model look-up-table-based emulator to increase algorithm efficiency further and thus speed up the likelihood computations. We then applied the OE algorithm to synthetic data and observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua spacecraft. We compared the R rs )(λ) retrieval and its uncertainty estimates from the OE method with in-situ validation data from the SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS) and Aerosol Robotic Network Ocean Color (AERONET-OC) datasets. The OE algorithm improved R rs )(λ) estimates relative to the NASA standard operational algorithm by improving all statistical metrics at 443, 555, and 667 nm. Unphysical negative R rs )(λ) , which often appear in complex water conditions, was reduced by a factor of 3. The OE-derived pixel-level R rs )(λ) uncertainty estimates were also assessed relative to in-situ data and were shown to have skill.

Atmospheric correction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: $w$CDM cosmology from simulation-based inference with persistent homology on the sphere

We present cosmological constraints from Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using persistent homology, a topological data analysis technique that tracks how features like clusters and voids evolve across density thresholds. For the first time, we apply spherical persistent homology to galaxy survey data through the algorithm TopoS2, which is optimized for curved-sky analyses and HEALPix compatibility. Employing a simulation-based inference framework with the Gower Street simulation suite, specifically designed to mimic DES Y3 data properties, we extract topological summary statistics from convergence maps across multiple smoothing scales and redshift bins. After neural network compression of these statistics, we estimate the likelihood function and validate our analysis against baryonic feedback effects, finding minimal biases (under $0.3σ$) in the $Ω_\mathrm{m}-S_8$ plane. Assuming the $w$CDM model, our combined Betti numbers and second moments analysis yields $S_8 = 0.821 \pm 0.018$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.304\pm0.037$-constraints 70% tighter than those from cosmic shear two-point statistics in the same parameter plane. Our results demonstrate that topological methods provide a powerful and robust framework for extracting cosmological information, with our spherical methodology readily applicable to upcoming Stage IV wide-field galaxy surveys.

Prat, J. [Nordita; Royal Inst. Tech., Sodertalje; ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian quantification of observability and equation of state of twin stars

The possibility of discovering twin stars, two neutron stars (NSs) with the same mass but different radii, is usually studied in forward modelings by using a restricted number of NS matter equations of state (EOSs) encapsulating a first-order phase transition from hadronic to quark matter (QM). Informing our likelihood function with the NS radius data from GW170817 and using a metamodel with nine parameters capable of mimicking most NS EOSs available in the literature, we conduct a Bayesian quantification of the observability and underlying EOSs of twin stars. Of the accepted EOSs, between 12 and 18% yield twin stars, depending on the restrictions we place on the second branch. The possibility of twin stars remains robust even under recent observational constraints. Here, we show that many of these twin star scenarios are observable with currently available levels of accuracy in measuring NS radii. We also present the marginalized posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of every EOS parameter for each of four mass-radius correlation topologies. We find that the inferred EOS depends sensitively on not only whether twin stars are present, but also the category of twin stars, indicating that the observation of twin stars would provide a strong constraint on the underlying EOS. In particular, for two coexisting hybrid stars having QM cores at different densities, the PDF for QM speed of sound squared 𝑐$^2_{qm}$ has two peaks, one below and another above the conformal limit 𝑐$^2_{qm}$ = 1/3 predicted by perturbative QCD.

QCD in nuclear reactions↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: Combining cross-spectral foreground cleaning with multitracer B -mode delensing for improved constraints on inflation

The Simons Observatory (SO), due to start full science operations in early 2025, aims to set tight constraints on inflationary physics by inferring the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization B-modes. Its nominal design including three small-aperture telescopes (SATs) targets a precision σ⁡(r = 0) ≤ 0.003 without delensing. Achieving this goal and further reducing uncertainties requires a thorough understanding and mitigation of other large-scale B-mode sources such as Galactic foregrounds and weak gravitational lensing. We present an analysis pipeline aiming to estimate r by including delensing within a cross-spectral likelihood, and demonstrate it for the first time on SO-like simulations accounting for various levels of foreground complexity, inhomogeneous noise and partial sky coverage. As introduced in an earlier SO delensing paper, lensing B-modes are synthesized using internal CMB lensing reconstructions as well as Planck-like cosmic infrared background maps and LSST-like galaxy density maps. We then extend SO’s power-spectrum-based foreground-cleaning algorithm to include all auto- and cross-spectra between the lensing template and the SAT B-modes in the likelihood function. This allows us to constrain r and the parameters of our foreground model simultaneously. Within this framework, we demonstrate the equivalence of map-based and cross-spectral delensing and use it to motivate an optimized pixel-weighting scheme for power spectrum estimation. We start by validating our pipeline in the simplistic case of uniform foreground spectral energy distributions. In the absence of primordial B-modes, we find that the 1⁢σ statistical uncertainty on r, σ⁡(r), decreases by 37% as a result of delensing. Tensor modes at the level of r = 0.01 are successfully detected by our pipeline. Even when using more realistic foreground models including spatial variations in the dust and synchrotron spectral properties, we obtain unbiased estimates of r both with and without delensing by employing the moment-expansion method. In this case, uncertainties are increased due to the higher number of model parameters, and delensing-related improvements range between 27% and 31%. These results constitute the first realistic assessment of the delensing performance at SO’s nominal sensitivity level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic Bayesian evaluation of resonance parameters in 19 Ne for the 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions

Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the nuclear structure properties of 19 Ne using a novel and rigorous Bayesian statistical framework. Precise characterization of 19 Ne resonance parameters is critical for accurately determining reaction rates of the astrophysically significant 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions, which govern breakout from the hot CNO cycle in x-ray bursts and influence 𝛾-ray emission in novae, respectively. By reconstructing likelihood functions from published experimental data—including asymmetric uncertainties and upper or lower limits—we derive posterior distributions for resonance energies, decay widths, and branching ratios. Our Bayesian approach systematically incorporates previously reported discrepancies among measurements, providing a statistically robust and consistent treatment of these uncertainties. The evaluated resonance parameters and associated uncertainties provide crucial input for stellar nucleosynthesis modeling, contributing to a refined understanding of explosive astrophysical phenomena.

Kim, Sohyun H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Republi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Continuum-based Redshift Measurement in the Roman’s High Latitude Spectroscopic Survey

We investigate the capability of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope’s (Roman) Wide-Field Instrument G150 slitless grism to detect red, quiescent galaxies based on the current reference survey. We simulate dispersed images for Roman reference High-Latitude Spectroscopic Survey (HLSS) and analyze two-dimensional spectroscopic data using the grism Redshift and Line Analysis (Grizli) software. This study focus on assessing Roman grism’s capability for continuum-level redshift measurement for a redshift range of 0.5 ≤ z ≤ 2.5. The redshift recovery is assessed by setting three requirements of: σ z = $\frac{|z–z_{true}|}{1+z}$ ≤ 0.01, signal-to-noise ratio≥ 5 and the presence of a single dominant peak in redshift likelihood function. We find that, for quiescent galaxies, the reference HLSS can reach a redshift recovery completeness of ≥50% for F158 magnitude brighter than 20.2 mag. We also explore how different survey parameters, such as exposure time and the number of exposures, influence the accuracy and completeness of redshift recovery, providing insights that could optimize future survey strategies and enhance the scientific yield of the Roman in cosmological research.

Astronomical simulations↗
NASA NTRS1972

Signal sequence detection given noisy, common background image sets.

The optimum processing (likelihood functional) is found for a set of M images, each the sum of a member of a signal sequence due to an object to be detected and its parameters estimated, a sample function of a noise field, and a sample function of a common background field. The noise fields are independent, zero mean, white Gaussian fields, all independent of the background field. The latter is assumed to be either (1) completely unknown or of known mean and covariance functions with (2) a certain fluctuation property or (3) Gaussian. Three equivalent forms of the optimum processing are found: (1) a summation of generalized matched filterings of the images, (2) a summation of matched filtering of certain generalized differences of the images, and (3) a summation of 'estimator-correlator' type filterings. The detection performance and optimum signal/image selection under the Neyman-Pearson criterion is given, and is shown that optimum processor and signal design can completely eliminate any effect of the background on detectability.

Harger, R. O.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A square root formulation for the combined state-parameter estimator with application to the identification of sailplane performance

A square root formulation is presented for the discrete combined state parameter estimation problem with linear plant dynamics, Gaussian random disturbances, and constant but uncertain parameters. The estimator is a combination of the classical Kalman filter and a maximum likelihood algorithm which maximizes the parameter log-likelihood function using a first order search routine.

Froidevaux, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Ambiguity resolution in systems using Omega for position location

The lane ambiguity problem prevents the utilization of the Omega system for many applications such as locating buoys and balloons. The method of multiple lines of position introduced herein uses signals from four or more Omega stations for ambiguity resolution. The coordinates of the candidate points are determined first through the use of the Newton iterative procedure. Subsequently, a likelihood function is generated for each point, and the ambiguity is resolved by selecting the most likely point. The method was tested through simulation.

Frenkel, G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

UHMLE: Program description user guide

A program which computes maximum likelihood estimates for the general normal mixture is introduced. The program allows the user to fix any subsets of the mixture parameters; this fixed set may be redefined at various times in the iteration process. There is considerable time saved in computing the likelihoods if the diagonal form is specified. Hence, in the early iterations the diagonal assumption might be used, changing over to the full covariance mode later in the iteration process for a more refined solution. This flexibility allows the user to choose the sequence of parameter configurations in the iteration process which he feels will optimize the computation time required as well as possibly avoid convergence to suboptimal local maxima of the likelihood function.

Cobely, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Classification improvement by optimal dimensionality reduction when training sets are of small size

A computer simulation was performed to test the conjecture that, when the sizes of the training sets are small, classification in a subspace of the original data space may give rise to a smaller probability of error than the classification in the data space itself; this is because the gain in the accuracy of estimation of the likelihood functions used in classification in the lower dimensional space (subspace) offsets the loss of information associated with dimensionality reduction (feature extraction). A number of pseudo-random training and data vectors were generated from two four-dimensional Gaussian classes. A special algorithm was used to create an optimal one-dimensional feature space on which to project the data. When the sizes of the training sets are small, classification of the data in the optimal one-dimensional space is found to yield lower error rates than the one in the original four-dimensional space.

Starks, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Geologic mapping using LANDSAT data

The feasibility of automated classification for lithologic mapping with LANDSAT digital data was evaluated using three classification algorithms. The two supervised algorithms analyzed, a linear discriminant analysis algorithm and a hybrid algorithm which incorporated the Parallelepiped algorithm and the Bayesian maximum likelihood function, were comparable in terms of accuracy; however, classification was only 50 per cent accurate. The linear discriminant analysis algorithm was three times as efficient as the hybrid approach. The unsupervised classification technique, which incorporated the CLUS algorithm, delineated the major lithologic boundaries and, in general, correctly classified the most prominent geologic units. The unsupervised algorithm was not as efficient nor as accurate as the supervised algorithms. Analysis of spectral data for the lithologic units in the 0.4 to 2.5 microns region indicated that a greater separability of the spectral signatures could be obtained using wavelength bands outside the region sensed by LANDSAT.

Siegal, B. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Regions of constrained maximum likelihood parameter identifiability

This paper considers the parameter identification problem of general discrete-time, nonlinear, multiple-input/multiple-output dynamic systems with Gaussian-white distributed measurement errors. Knowledge of the system parameterization is assumed to be known. Regions of constrained maximum likelihood (CML) parameter identifiability are established. A computation procedure employing interval arithmetic is proposed for finding explicit regions of parameter identifiability for the case of linear systems. It is shown that if the vector of true parameters is locally CML identifiable, then with probability one, the vector of true parameters is a unique maximal point of the maximum likelihood function in the region of parameter identifiability and the CML estimation sequence will converge to the true parameters.

Lee, C.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Bayesian estimation of crack initiation times from service data

Lockheed C-130 Hercules aircraft have during their service life been periodically inspected and growing cracks around rivet holes were recorded. This record has recently been used to determine the statistical distributions of crack initiation times and the distribution of initial crack sizes. When crack initiation times are calculated from such cracks, by backward extrapolation of the growth relation, the resulting distribution of crack initiation times will indicate a preponderance of short times to crack initiation. If however, such distributions are combined with the reliability of the inspection procedure, the statistical distribution of missed initiation times can be estimated. The method used is based on Bayes theorem which permits the calculation of the 'prior' distribution (initiation times before inspection) from a knowledge of the 'posterior' distribution (initiation times obtained from the inspection) and a 'likelihood function' (reliability of the inspection) procedure. The results indicate that during an early inspection a large percentage of initiation times will be missed and that the fraction of located initiation times increases during later inspections.

Heller, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Maximum likelihood identifier refinements for F-8C adaptive control

Design refinement is described for baseline F-8C adaptive flight test control laws which consist of simplified quadratic-optimal model-following control structures in the pitch and lateral directional axes. The variable gains of both axes are adjusted adaptively by an explicit on-line maximum likelihood parameter identifier. The identifier, consisting of five parallel computing channels which evaluate the likelihood functions at discrete points in parameter space, operates in pitch only, using pitch rate, normal acceleration, and elevator position measurements.

Stein, G.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Specific failure identification algorithms for the F-8

Analytical redundancy is applied to the pitch axis of an aircraft to enhance sensor fault detection. Three different designs based on monitoring Kalman filter residuals or likelihood functions were developed. Sensor failures were simulated to evaluate the performance of the algorithms on a nonlinear simulation of an F-8C aircraft. Based on requirements for sensor fault detection and preliminary simulator performance it is concluded that these algorithms have the potential for reducing the level of sensor redundancy in a digital flight control system without compromising performance.

Hartmann, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Maximum likelihood method for estimating airplane stability and control parameters from flight data in frequency domain

A frequency domain maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of airplane stability and control parameters from measured data. The model of an airplane is represented by a discrete-type steady state Kalman filter with time variables replaced by their Fourier series expansions. The likelihood function of innovations is formulated, and by its maximization with respect to unknown parameters the estimation algorithm is obtained. This algorithm is then simplified to the output error estimation method with the data in the form of transformed time histories, frequency response curves, or spectral and cross-spectral densities. The development is followed by a discussion on the equivalence of the cost function in the time and frequency domains, and on advantages and disadvantages of the frequency domain approach. The algorithm developed is applied in four examples to the estimation of longitudinal parameters of a general aviation airplane using computer generated and measured data in turbulent and still air. The cost functions in the time and frequency domains are shown to be equivalent; therefore, both approaches are complementary and not contradictory. Despite some computational advantages of parameter estimation in the frequency domain, this approach is limited to linear equations of motion with constant coefficients.

Klein, V.↗