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DOE OSTI2021

Conformational dynamics linked to domain closure and substrate binding explain the ERAP1 allosteric regulation mechanism

The endoplasmic-reticulum aminopeptidase ERAP1 processes antigenic peptides for loading on MHC-I proteins and recognition by CD8 T cells as they survey the body for infection and malignancy. Crystal structures have revealed ERAP1 in either open or closed conformations, but whether these occur in solution and are involved in catalysis is not clear. Here, we assess ERAP1 conformational states in solution in the presence of substrates, allosteric activators, and inhibitors by small-angle X-ray scattering. We also characterize changes in protein conformation by X-ray crystallography, and we localize alternate C-terminal binding sites by chemical crosslinking. Structural and enzymatic data suggest that the structural reconfigurations of ERAP1 active site are physically linked to domain closure and are promoted by binding of long peptide substrates. These results clarify steps required for ERAP1 catalysis, demonstrate the importance of conformational dynamics within the catalytic cycle, and provide a mechanism for the observed allosteric regulation and Lys/Arg528 polymorphism disease association.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19: Spatiotemporal social data analytics and machine learning for pandemic exploration and forecasting

This task focused on developing a preliminary approach to use machine learning (ML) to explore the relationship between county-level societal variables and COVID-19 parameters, including COVID-19 cases rates and counts and COVID-19 death rates and counts. The objective was to develop and test a prototype approach for linking COVID-19 and county-level data. The task focused on enhancing and applying existing LANL ML techniques to COVID-19. Our novel ML methods have been a subject of a recently approved U.S. patent. The codes based on these methods are already open-source released. Our ML tools (NMFk/NTFk) are applied to extract hidden features (signals, waves) in the analyzed datasets and automatically identify their optimal number. The features are extracted by identifying counties that have similarities between the county-level societal variables and the COVID-19 parameters. These demonstration analyses will facilitate the ongoing pandemic simulations and predictions performed by Los Alamos other institutions, as well as lay the groundwork for future work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning enables reconstruction of past fire regimes from charcoal-derived fire intensity and fuel composition

Background Fire is a foundational ecological process that shapes ecosystem structure, diversity, and resilience. Quantifying paleofire regime attributes such as frequency, severity, and intensity is essential for understanding the historical range of variability in fire behavior and its ecological effects. While frequency and severity are often reconstructed in paleofire studies, quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity remain limited. Recent work has shown that maximum pyrolysis temperature—a proxy for fire intensity—and plant species type can be inferred from charcoal using transmission Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. However, the sample preparation for transmission FTIR is destructive and time-consuming, limiting application and reuse of materials for other analyses. We evaluated reflectance FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive alternative for reconstructing combustion temperature and plant species from laboratory-generated charcoal. We also examined the influence of contrasting airflow environments (ambient air versus nitrogen-rich) on pyrolysis temperature and plant species reconstruction prediction accuracies and compared predictive performance between a novel, neural network–based deep learning model with the traditional modern analogue technique (MAT) using k-nearest neighbor functions. As proof of concept, we apply our enhanced methodology to ancient charcoal to demonstrate applicability at improving long-term fire regime reconstructions and the ability to link paleofire records with contemporary fire ecology. Results Our analysis shows that transmission and reflectance FTIR spectra yield comparable spectral profiles. However, sample preparation for reflectance FTIR is minimal and non-destructive, unlike transmission FTIR which is destructive. We demonstrate that oxygen environments improved reconstruction accuracy relative to nitrogen-rich conditions. Finally, our deep learning neural network (DL) achieved testing accuracies of 98.7% for temperature and 96.2% for species identification, outperforming MAT’s k-NN approach (89.8% and 65.9%, respectively). A Shapley importance analysis identified 5 key spectral regions that greatly influenced the model’s temperature or species categorization. When applied to ancient charcoal, our results show historic fires from the most recent past primarily burned at low intensities (400–500 °C), reflective of natural fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Our results corroborate charcoal morphology data that suggests all ancient charcoal originated from burned woody plant types. Conclusions By combining reflectance FTIR spectroscopy with a deep learning approach, we provide the first accuracies high enough to confidently identify both species and temperature from laboratory-produced charcoal, improving quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity and fuel composition from paleofire records. This opens a wide range of research into the link between fire and larger drivers (i.e., climate or human) and greater ecological understanding of fire regimes beyond that of burn scars or recent observations. These methodological improvements have direct relevance for fire management by improving interpretation of historical fire behavior, informing fuel–fire relationships, and providing a scalable analytical framework applicable to both long-term ecological studies and contemporary fire science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

GCAM-Demeter-LU

This GCAM-Demeter-LU is made available under the Open Data Commons Attribution License:http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/by/1.0/. The dataset includes the projected global gridded land cover (excluding the Antarctic) for the period of 2015-2100 at 0.05-degree resolution and 5-year time step under fifteen SSP-RCP scenarios driven by five GCMs (i.e., gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a geospatial downscaling model (Demeter). The data has been stored in self-describing NetCDF format. The dataset also includes the mean and standard deviation of the results driven by the five GCMs. More specifically, the data in each year includes grid-explicit fraction (in percent) of each of the 32 plant functional types that are widely used in current Earth system models. The NetCDF files are named as “GCAM_Demeter_LU_SSP_RCP_Model_Year.nc”, where “SSP” and “RCP” denote the SSP and RCP scenarios, including 'ssp1_rcp26', 'ssp1_rcp45', 'ssp1_rcp60', 'ssp2_rcp26', 'ssp2_rcp45', 'ssp2_rcp60', 'ssp3_rcp45', 'ssp3_rcp60', 'ssp4_rcp26', 'ssp4_rcp45', 'ssp4_rcp60', 'ssp5_rcp26', 'ssp5_rcp45', 'ssp5_rcp60', and 'ssp5_rcp85'. “Year” denotes the year of the land use data, and “GCM” denotes the source driving forcing data from five global climate models (gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), or the mean (“modelmean”) and the standard deviation (“modelstd”) of the results from the five GCMs.See https://github.com/JGCRI/chen_et_al_2020a for details on how to reproduce this data. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ applies to the metadata files associated with this article

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sample IEEE123 Bus system for OEDI SI

Time series load and PV data from an IEEE123 bus system. An example electrical system, named the OEDI SI feeder, is used to test the workflow in a co-simulation. The system used is the IEEE123 test system, which is a well studied test system (see link below to IEEE PES Test Feeder), but some modifications were made to it to add some solar power modules and measurements on the system. The aim of this project is to create an easy-to-use platform where various types of analytics can be performed on a wide range of electrical grid datasets. The aim is to establish an open-source library of algorithms that universities, national labs and other developers can contribute to which can be used on both open-source and proprietary grid data to improve the analysis of electrical distribution systems for the grid modeling community. OEDI Systems Integration (SI) is a grid algorithms and data analytics API created to standardize how data is sent between different modules that are run as part of a co-simulation. The readme file included in the S3 bucket provides information about the directory structure and how to use the algorithms. The sensors.json file is used to define the measurement locations.

123 bus↗

DOE OSTI2026

DTLMod: A simulation framework for in situ workflow optimization

In situ processing workflows have become essential for coping with the explosion in data volume and velocity in large-scale scientific computing, providing domain scientists with early insights at runtime. Multiple frameworks implement this paradigm through a data transport layer (DTL), offering different data access modes and deployment schemes, but researchers currently lack the appropriate tools to assess design and deployment options before committing to costly real experiments. We introduce DTLMod, an open-source simulated DTL that enables performance evaluation of in situ workflow configurations at scale. Built on SimGrid, it links into any SimGrid-based simulator and is available in C++ and Python. We evaluate DTLMod along four axes: scalability (tens of thousands of simulated processes across interconnected clusters in seconds, with linear memory scaling), versatility (three implementation variants trading fidelity for speed), accuracy (simulated times faithfully reflecting real behavior), and practical utility (two use cases demonstrating evidence-based workflow design decisions).

Suter, Fred [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000319021955)↗

DOE OSTI2023

County-Level Hourly Renewable Capacity Factor Dataset for the ReEDS Model

This dataset contains hourly capacity factors for each renewable resource class and region (in this case, county). Technologies like large-scale utility PV (UPV), onshore wind, offshore wind, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are included. The dataset contains 7 years of hourly weather data (2007-2013) for different sites across the US and is used as one of the inputs to the ReEDS-2.0 model (see the "ReEDS 2.0 GitHub Repository" resource link below), developed by NREL. The weather profiles apply to any capacity that exists or is built in each region and class. This helps calculate the generation that can be provided using these resources. Open, reference, and limited are 3 scenarios based on land-use allowance, derived from the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model developed by NREL, which helps generate supply curves for renewable technologies and assess the maximum potential of renewable resources in a designated area. Each zipped file in this dataset corresponds to a technology and contains the respective land-use scenario files required to run that technology in ReEDS. To use this dataset, download and place the extracted files in the locally cloned ReEDS repository inside one of the folders (inputs/variability/multi_year). After completing this copy, upon running the ReEDS model at the county-level spatial resolution for respective analysis purposes, the program will detect the presence of these files and will not fail.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale modeling of the evolution of structure and properties in materials for nuclear energy applications

Nuclear energy is an important component of an overall strategy to address climate change. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is the U.S. Department of Energy’s primary facility for research and development in nuclear science and technology for energy generation, supporting the improvement and life extension of the existing reactor fleet and the development and licensing of new reactor designs. Computational modeling is an important component of these activities, particularly in the area of materials for nuclear applications, where experimental data can be very challenging and expensive to acquire, and where data is especially scarce for new reactor designs. INL has used multi-scale modeling – linking atomistic, mesoscale, and engineering scales – to improve the ability to predict the performance of materials for nuclear energy applications. These modeling efforts make extensive of MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment), a general-purpose open source finite element framework developed at INL. In this talk, I will give an overview of the approach and tools used, and several examples of application, including performance of nuclear fuels, understanding radiation-driven formation of nanoscale void and gas bubble superlattices, and powder densification through electric field assisted sintering.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale modeling of the evolution of structure and properties in materials for nuclear energy applications

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

KBKit: A Python Toolkit for Kirkwood–Buff Theory from Molecular Dynamics

Thermodynamic properties of liquid mixtures govern processes that range from drug delivery to energy storage, yet extracting these properties from molecular simulations remains challenging. Kirkwood–Buff (KB) theory offers a rigorous route by linking microscopic pair distribution functions to macroscopic free energies, but practical use of the theory has been hindered by two obstacles: (i) the long simulations needed to obtain well-converged Kirkwood-Buff integrals (KBIs) and (ii) the specialized corrections required to translate finite-size data to the thermodynamic limit. $\texttt{KBKit}$ is an open-source Python package that removes these barriers. It automatically computes KBIs and derived thermodynamic quantities from GROMACS input files, applies state-of-the-art finite-size corrections, and provides built-in diagnostic tools to quantify statistical uncertainty. Written with modern software-engineering practices—continuous integration, extensive unit testing, and thorough documentation—$\texttt{KBKit}$ is both reliable and easy to extend. By condensing complex KBI analysis into a few intuitive commands, $\texttt{KBKit}$ enables researchers to incorporate KB theory into routine simulation workflows and accelerate the discovery of solution-phase thermodynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Planting a Lyman alpha forest on ABACUSSUMMIT

The full-shape correlations of the Lyman alpha (Ly$α$) forest contain a wealth of cosmological information through the Alcock Paczynski effect. However, these measurements are challenging to model without robustly testing and verifying the theoretical framework used for analyzing them. Here, we leverage the accuracy and volume of the $N$-body simulation suite ABACUSSUMMIT to generate high-resolution Ly$α$ skewers and quasi-stellar object (QSO) catalogs. One of the main goals of our mocks is to aid in the full-shape Ly$α$ analysis planned by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) team. We provide optical depth skewers for six of the fiducial cosmology base-resolution simulations ($L$ box = 2 $h$ -1 Gpc, $N$ = 6912 3 ) at $z$ = 2.5. We adopt a simple recipe based on the Fluctuating Gunn-Peterson Approximation (FGPA) for constructing these skewers from the matter density in an $N$-body simulation and calibrate it against the 1D and 3D Ly$α$ power spectra extracted from the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG (TNG; $L$ box = 205 $h$ -1 Mpc, $N$ = 2500 3 ). As an important application, we study the non-linear broadening of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) peak and show the cross-correlation between DESI-like QSOs and our Ly$α$ forest skewers. We find differences on small scales between the Kaiser approximation prediction and our mock measurements of the Ly$α$×QSO cross-correlation, which would be important to account for in upcoming analyses. The ABACUSSUMMIT Ly$α$ forest mocks open up the possibility for improved modelling of cross correlations between Ly$α$ and cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing and Ly$α$ and QSOs, and for forecasts of the 3-point Ly$α$ correlation function. Furthermore, our catalogues and skewers are publicly available on Globus via the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) (full link under Data Availability).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Node-Accessible Zirconium MOFs

High-stability, zirconium-based metal–organic frameworks are attractive as heterogeneous catalysts and as model supports for uniform arrays of subsequently constructed heterogeneous catalysts—for example, MOF-node-grafted metal–oxy and metal–sulfur clusters. For hexa-Zr(IV)-MOFs characterized by nodes that are less than 12-connected, sites not used for linkers are ideally occupied by reactive and displaceable OH/H 2 O pairs. Here, the desired pairs are ideal for grafting the aforementioned catalytic clusters, while aqua-ligand lability renders them effective for exposing highly Lewis-acidic Zr(IV) sites (catalytic sites) to candidate reactants. New single-crystal X-ray studies of an eight-connected Zr-MOF, NU-1000, reveal that conventional activation fully removes modulator ligands, but replaces them with three node-blocking formate ligands (from solvent decomposition) and only one OH/H 2 O pair, not four—a largely overlooked complication that now appears to be general for Zr-MOFs. Here we describe an alternative activation protocol that effectively removes modulators, avoids formate, and installs the full complement of terminal OH/H 2 O pairs. It does so via an unusual isolatable intermediate featuring eight aqua ligands and four non-ligated chlorides—again as supported by single-crystal X-ray data. We find that complete replacement of node-blocking modulators/formate with the originally envisioned OH/OH 2 pairs has striking consequences; here we touch upon just three. First, elimination of unrecognized formate renders aqua ligands much more thermally labile, enabling open Zr(IV) sites to be obtained at lower temperature. Second, in the absence of formate, which otherwise links and locks pairs of node Zr(IV) ions, reversible removal of aqua ligands engenders reversible contraction of MOF meso- and micropores, as evidenced by X-ray diffraction. Third, formate replacement with OH/OH 2 pairs renders NU-1000 ca.10× more active for catalytic hydrolytic degradation of a representative simulant of G-type chemical warfare agents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Offshore Wind Composite Siting Exclusions Scenarios

This dataset consolidates criteria that restrict the siting of offshore wind energy installations, an update from Zuckerman et al. (2023). All scenarios exclude area from wind energy development due to legal or administrative restrictions (e.g., Marine Protected Areas), existing infrastructure, and technical constraints (e.g., 1,300 m bathymetry limit). A TIF data file and a PNG cartographic map of the data are provided for three scenarios ("Open", "Reference", and "Limited"), showing areas where offshore wind energy is restricted across the contiguous United States. The "Open" scenario only excludes areas with known preclusions for offshore wind deployment. The "Reference" scenario excludes all areas from the "Open" scenario, as well as additional best management practices such as known proposed protected areas, and state waters. The "Limited" scenario excludes all area from the "Reference" scenario. Additionally, it has more stringent siting criteria such as larger setbacks from shore and infrastructure, as well as shallower depth limits on floating technology. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Zuckerman, Gabriel R., Anthony Lopez, Travis Williams, Rebecca Green, and Grant Buster. 2023. Impacts of Siting Considerations on Offshore Wind Technical Potential in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20- 85088.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2021

Introducing PRIMRE’s MRE Software Knowledge Hub

This paper focuses on the role of the Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) Software Knowledge Hub on the Portal and Repository for Information on Marine Renewable Energy (PRIMRE). The MRE Software Knowledge Hub provides online services for MRE software users and developers, and seeks to develop assessments and recommendations for improving MRE software in the future. Online software discovery platforms, known as the Code Hub and the Code Catalog, are provided. The Code Hub is a collection of open-source MRE software that includes a landing page with search functionality, linked to files hosted on the MRE Code Hub GitHub organization. The Code Catalog is a searchable online platform for discovery of useful (open-source or commercial) software packages, tools, codes, and other software products. To gather information about the existing MRE software landscape, a software survey is being performed, the preliminary results of which are presented herein. Initially, the data collected in the MRE software survey will be used to populate the MRE Software knowledge hub on PRIMRE, and future work will use data from the survey to perform a gap analysis and develop a vision for future software development. Additionally, as one of PRIMRE’s roles is to support development of MRE software within project partners, a silo of knowledge relating to best practices has been gathered.

marine, energy, open source software, MHKiT, MRE C↗

DOE OSTI2021

Introducing PRIMRE's MRE Software Knowledge Hub (February 2021)

This paper focuses on the role of the Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) Software Knowledge Hub on the Portal and Repository for Information on Marine Renewable Energy (PRIMRE). The MRE Software Knowledge Hub provides online services for MRE software users and developers, and seeks to develop assessments and recommendations for improving MRE software in the future. Online software discovery platforms, known as the Code Hub and the Code Catalog, are provided. The Code Hub is a collection of open-source MRE software that includes a landing page with search functionality, linked to files hosted on the MRE Code Hub GitHub organization. The Code Catalog is a searchable online platform for discovery of useful (open-source or commercial) software packages, tools, codes, and other software products. To gather information about the existing MRE software landscape, a software survey is being performed, the preliminary results of which are presented herein. Initially, the data collected in the MRE software survey will be used to populate the MRE Software knowledge hub on PRIMRE, and future work will use data from the survey to perform a gap analysis and develop a vision for future software development. Additionally, as one of PRIMRE's roles is to support development of MRE software within project partners, a silo of knowledge relating to best practices has been gathered. An early draft of new guidance developed from this knowledge is presented.

gap analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mondo: integrating disease terminology across communities

Precision medicine aims to enhance diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis by integrating multimodal data at the point of care. However, challenges arise due to the vast number of diseases, differing methods of classification, and conflicting terminological coding systems and practices used to represent molecular definitions of disease. This lack of interoperability artificially constrains the potential for diagnosis, clinical decision support, care outcome analysis, as well as data linkage across research domains to support the development or repurposing of therapeutics. There is a clear and pressing need for a unified system for managing disease entities⁠—including identifiers, synonyms, and definitions. To address these issues, we created the Mondo disease ontology—a community-driven, open-source, unified disease classification system that harmonizes diverse terminologies into a consistent, computable framework. Mondo integrates key medical and biomedical terminologies, including Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM), Orphanet, Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), National Cancer Institute Thesaurus (NCIt), and more, to provide a comprehensive and accurate representation of disease concepts with fully provenanced and attributed links back to the sources. Mondo can be used as the handle for curation of gene–disease associations utilized in diagnostic applications, research applications such as computational phenotyping, and in clinical coding systems in clinical decision support by pointing the clinician to the numerous knowledge resources linked to the Mondo identifier. Mondo's community-centric approach, stewarded by the Monarch Initiative's expertise in ontologies, ensures that the ontology remains adaptable to the evolving needs of biomedical research and clinical communities, as well as the knowledge providers.

biomedical informatics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling

Managing the flow of water, nutrients, and contaminants in watersheds is vital to addressing pressing issues related to water scarcity, access to clean drinking water, energy production, resilience to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, and ecological restoration. Decisions about the management of watersheds critically depend on the accuracy with which the flow of water and chemicals through the watershed can be predicted by computer models. Prediction uncertainty can be reduced by matching the model to data, which are collected in the field at great expense. The contribution of watershed characterization data to reducing uncertainty of relevant model predictions can be evaluated in a so-called data-worth analysis, which provides transparent, quantitative metrics about a data set’s value for the support of relevant watershed management objectives. To achieve this goal, we developed a software package that implements the data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. The purpose of the proposed data-worth analysis is to help decision-makers allocate resources for watershed characterization such that the uncertainty in model predictions can be significantly reduced, which leads to better, more effective management decisions. At the same time, watershed characterization costs can be reduced. The specific technical objectives of this SBIR/STTR Phase II project were to develop a framework and associated software toolsets that implement the uncertainty quantification and data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. This goal was achieved by (A) developing a user-friendly, robust software package that is accessible to a wide audience, including watershed managers, policy-makers, and public stakeholders; (B) by demonstrating application of the prototype on several use cases that are representative of complex watershed management challenges spanning a range of scales and that consider different open-source, DOE-based codes and other modeling platforms; and (C) by gathering information about the needs and requirements from potential users to help guide future developments, ensuring that the final product will be commercially viable. The developed software consists of a graphical user interface that guides the user through a sequence of analysis steps, supported by toolsets that leverage state-of-the-art computational simulation-optimization capabilities. A prototype of the software runs on multiple platforms (PC, Mac, multi-processor Linux environment), is linked to diverse watershed simulators (e.g., ECOSYS, TOUGH2, TOUGHREACT, Amanzi-ATS), performs multiple analysis tasks (predictive simulations, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, automatic parameter estimation, and data-worth analysis, multicomponent geothermometry), and is readily extensible to include external simulators and analysis tools. The software is being commercialized and will be continually updated to address user needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗