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DOE OSTI2021

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.2)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.4)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.6)

Aria is a Galerkin nite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual - Version 5.8

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual - Version 5.8

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process ows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensuring Solution Uniqueness in Three-Phase Power System State Estimation

This paper is concerned with the issue of potential non-unique solutions in three-phase state estimation. Theory of observability analysis for positive sequence power system state estimation is based on certain assumptions that avoid possibility of multiple solutions. Also, it is shown that observability of a positive sequence network remains independent of the network parameters or the operating state. When extending single-phase observability analysis directly to the three-phase case, this paper considers the possibility of converging to multiple solutions, i.e. solution non-uniqueness, even for cases where state estimator successfully converges. The study illustrates via numerical examples the likelihood of converging to entirely different solutions for certain network parameters. It also examines how the operating state, particularly under unbalanced loading, leads to solution non-uniqueness. The paper then describes an alternative approach to ensure a unique solution in three-phase state estimation. This method aims to accurately and uniquely estimate the state of any unbalanced three-phase system, irrespective of load imbalance, network configuration, existence of synchronous generators or transformers.

Power System State Estimation, Three-Phase, Distri↗

DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parametric estimation of Poisson's ratio for thin hinged-hinged plates

Cornu's method is an elegant calculation besieged by an impractical approach to obtain accurate estimates for Poisson's ratio. Conventionally, Cornu's method requires several components, and each component can adversely affect the accuracy of the measurement. Furthermore, Cornu's conventional method requires a long beam because beams with short length-to-width ratios cause the estimate of Poisson's ratio to diverge from the true value of Poisson's ratio. We believe that, with the right modifications, Cornu's method can become an attractive approach to obtaining precise estimates for Poisson's ratio from mode shapes. Here we use finite element simulations to show how to use Cornu's method to estimate Poisson's ratio from a mode shape. Our modified Cornu's method removes knife-edges and loading components for a hinged-hinged plate under steady-state excitation. Given the true value of Poisson's ratio, as a performance specification, we show that simple parametric expressions can fit estimates for Poisson's ratio for different length-to-width ratios of thin hinged-hinged plates. Additionally, we show that estimates for Poisson's ratio from higher modes align with the results from the first mode and explain our expectation for this outcome. Furthermore, our results challenge the idea that anticlastic, monoclastic, and synclastic deformation uniquely correspond to positive, zero, and negative estimates of Poisson's ratio, respectively. With the emergence of materials-by-design, we expect that this parametric technique will be able to assist in experimental qualification of thin beam and plate structures with respect to the desired value of Poisson's ratio.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Master State Distributed Estimator (masde)

The MSE technology provides a distributed state estimation scheme for power utilities by making it a real time dynamic system, versus the static snapshot method used today. This will allow utilities to verify power grid readings and identify false data on the communication network. The prevailing method of estimation takes all the data from the system into a single load flow equation at the utilities command center. This becomes a large algorithm that is very time consuming to solve, providing the engineers only snap shots of the system. The MFD distributes an algorithm to devises that are already installed at various locations on the power grid. This allows for much faster computer times because the algorithms contain magnitudes less data. When each distributed estimator completes its calculation, it sends the results back to the master device to check against all other distributed estimators.

Reen, DylanW.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Open-Loop Control of Adjustable Tuned Mass Dampers for Floating Wind Turbine Platforms

In this study, we demonstrate the ability of adjustable tuned mass dampers (TMDs) to reduce the platform motion of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). The TMDs are located in the hull and provide control authority by varying the amount of water ballast and compressed air in a reservoir over time. The optimal TMD settings depend on the wind and wave conditions of the FOWT. We present an open-loop control scheme that changes the TMD natural frequency based on sea state and a simple method for estimating the peak wave period and significant wave height. The performance of this open-loop control is compared to ideal control of the TMDs (set knowing the exact sea state), a TMD with a constant natural frequency targeting the design load case with the greatest platform motion, and a baseline set of simulations of the platform without TMDs. The constant natural frequency case performs nearly as effectively as the actively controlled case, suggesting that the TMDs can be simply designed for extreme load conditions and provide consistent control over a range of environments; however, the methods used to find the optimal TMD parameters and estimate sea state statistics could be used in other aspects of FOWT control and design.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data-Driven Load Modeling and Forecasting of Residential Appliances

The expansion of residential demand side management programs and increased deployment of controllable loads require accurate appliance-level load modeling and forecasting. This paper proposes a conditional hidden semi-Markov model to describe the probabilistic nature of residential appliance demand. Model parameters are estimated directly from power consumption data using scalable statistical learning methods. We also propose an algorithm for short-term load forecasting as a key application for appliance-level load models. Case studies performed using granular sub-metered power measurements from various types of appliances demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load model for short-term prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the impact of demand response on peak demand in a developing country: The case of Ghana

Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response refers to consumer actions that change the utility load profile in a way that reduces costs or improves grid security by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. The methodologies that are used to achieve demand response can hardly be applicable in developing countries. Peak pricing of electricity, for instance, can hardly be implemented in many developing countries as high prices would disproportionately affect the many low-income households who do not have the capacity to take action to avoid paying high peak prices. This study aims to develop demand response methodology that can be applied in developing countries to achieve residential peak demand reduction. We use a consumer preference survey to develop a methodology suitable for developing countries. The method of diversified demand is used with energy audit and monitored data to estimate the potential peak load reduction and its cost-effectiveness for Ghana. Results show that peak reduction of 15-210 MW is expected by 2040 with a positive return on investment of 2-22% for all designed scenarios.

Diawuo, FA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Collective Analysis of Alpha Particle Losses Due to Self-Absorption by Mass Loading on Radioactive Particulate Glass Fiber Filters

In this study, we derived a relationship between filter mass loading and the percent loss during analysis using the mass loading data collected from six previous studies of self-absorption. Components of mass loading include particulate dust, radioactive particulates, and filter material. In a research report published in 1984, Higby calculated a minimum burial depth for an alpha particle to be lost due to absorption (100% loss) of about 3.7 mg/cm 2 based on calculations for the range of 239-Pu alpha particles in glass fiber filters. From there, Higby concluded that a correction factor of 0.85 assumes approximately 15% losses in the count rate of both alpha and beta particles. In 2000, Luetzelschwab et al. recommended assuming a 40% loss at a loading of 3.3 mg/cm 2 and a 28% loss for a loading of 2.3 mg/cm 2 which included the frontal face mass of the filter. More recently, the 100% losses due to absorption were reported to be in the 10 mg/cm 2 range. Presented here is a trinomial relationship method of relating percent loss due to self-absorption to filter mass loading, based on data reported by Higby, Luetzelschwab et al., Huang et al., Barnett et al., Smith et al., and Hogue et al. Under normal operating conditions at the stacks monitored by Effluent Management, the mass loading of sample filters averages 0.09 ± 0.12 (2s) mg/cm 2 (excluding negative values and outliers) and ranges from 0 mg/cm 2 to 0.24 mg/cm 2 . Based on current mass loading results for Effluent Management stack sample filters, the forced-zero trinomial relationship method estimated self-absorption losses of less than 5%. Because American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society N13.1-2011 guidelines indicate a correction factor should be used when the penetration of radioactive material into the collection media or self-absorption of radiation by the material collected would reduce the count rate by more than 5%, it is possible continued application of a correction factor to the Effluent Management stack samples is no longer necessary. Nevertheless, continuing to assign a correction factor at the 5% threshold (i.e., 0.95) would be a conservative approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field validation of dynamic mechanical torque measurements using fiber-optic strain sensors for geared wind turbines

Abstract Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors’ successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Dynamic Mechanical Torque Measurements for Geared Wind Turbines

Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors' successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗