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NASA NTRS1991

Particle size distributions in polar mesospheric clouds derived from solar mesosphere explorer measurements

Data from the visible and UV spectrometers on the Solar Mesosphere Explorer are used to derive the color ratios of the reflectance at 265, 296, and 393 nm of light scattered from polar mesospheric cloud particles. This analysis extends the spectral coverage into the visible region of the spectrum. The data reduction technique compared the cloud brightness to the brightness scattered from the background atmosphere at the same wavelength. The ratios determined in this way are independent of systematic errors in instrument radiometric calibration. The data are analyzed using theoretical determinations of the color ratios from the Mie theory of small particle scattering, assuming a lognormal distribution for the particle size dispersion. Here 'size' means the average radius of the sphere having the same ice volume. The present results confirm earlier findings that the effective sizes of polar mesospheric cloud particles are less than 70 nm. Still, there exists a small number of measurements which result in particle sizes of the order of 80 nm. Even for these large particle sizes the required vertical column content of water vapor does not exceed limits imposed by the available atmospheric water vapor concentrations.

Rusch, D. W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

SootLib: A soot model library for combustion simulation

Soot formation in combustion is an important process that affects radiative heat transfer, flame temperatures, and emissions with health and environmental impacts. Soot formation involves complex chemistry for nucleation, growth, oxidation, and coagulation processes. The soot particles vary widely in size and accurate modeling requires representation of the particle size distribution (PSD). Modeling soot is not trivial, and is only one of several physical processes active in combustion systems. This paper presents a software package called SootLib, which is an open-source library for modeling soot formation and other aerosol systems. SootLib is written in C++, is documented with Doxygen, and is available on GitHub. The library includes several models for soot chemistry and coagulation, and it represents the PSD using either a sectional model or the method of moments (MOM). Four closure approaches for the MOM are implemented allowing up to eight moments: monodispersed, an assumed-shape lognormal distribution, the quadrature method of moments, and the method of moments with interpolative closure. SootLib provides an interface for inclusion in other combustion packages including CFD or reacting flow solvers. The range of models allows comparisons and sensitivity studies, and the modularity facilitates extension to other soot models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Corrosion of rebar in concrete. Part II: Literature survey and statistical analysis of existing data on chloride threshold

The literature is reviewed with respect to defining, measuring, and interpreting the chloride threshold (CT). CT was defined with a strong fundamental basis in the Point Defect Model. which also dictates the nature of the statistical analysis of surveyed CT values. A database of CT for various primary and secondary independent variables has been established. Statistical analyses reveal that CT is lognormally distributed, in accordance with the PDM, with most probable values being 0.85, 0.69, and 1.19 for %total Cl/cem, %free Cl/cem, and [Cl - ]/[OH - ], respectively. The breakdown and corrosion potentials follow normal distributions with means of 0.056 and -0.322 V SCE , respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parasitic Modulation of Microwave Signals by a Hypersonic Plasma Layer

During hypersonic flight, compressional and viscous heating of the air can form a plasma layer which encases the aircraft. If the boundary layer becomes turbulent, then the electron density fluctuations can effect a parasitic modulation in microwave signals transmitted through the plasma. We developed an approach for studying the interaction of microwave signals with a turbulent, hypersonic plasma layer. The approach affords a great deal of flexibility in both the plasma layer model and the antenna configuration. We then analyzed a situation in which microwaves, transmitted from a rectangular aperture antenna, propagate through a turbulent plasma layer to a distant receiver. We characterized the first-and second-order statistics of the computed parasitic modulation and quantified the depolarization of the signal. The amplitude fluctuations are lognormally distributed at low frequencies and Rice-distributed at high frequencies. Fluctuations in the copolarized phase and amplitude of the far-field signal are strongly anticorrelated. Here, we used a multioutput Gaussian process (MOGP) to model these quantities. The efficacy of the MOGP model is demonstrated by recovering the time evolution of the copolarized phase given the copolarized amplitude and occasional measurements of the phase.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Assessment of Damage from Same Shock Response Spectra due to Variations in Damping

Interpretation of field data from shock tests and subsequent assessment of product safety margins via laboratory testing are based on the shock response spectra (SRS). The SRS capture how a single degree of freedom (SDOF) structure responds to the shock at differing frequencies and, therefore, no longer contain the duration or other temporal parameters pertaining to the shock. A single duration can often be included in the technical specification or in the recreation of acceleration vs. time history from the specified SRS; however, there is little basis for that beyond technical judgment. The loss of such temporal information can result in the recreated SRS being the same while its effect on a system or component can be different. This paper attempts to quantify this deficiency as well as propose a simple method of capturing damping from shock waves that can allow the original waveform to be more accurately reconstructed from the SRS. In this study the decay rate associated with various frequencies that comprise the overall shock was varied. This variation in the decay rate leads to a variation in the acceleration vs. time history, which can be correlated to a “Damage Index” that captures the fatigue damage imparted to the object under shock. Several waveforms that have the same SRS but varying rates of decay for either high- or low-frequency components of the shock were investigated. The resulting variation in stress cycles and Damage Index is discussed in the context of the lognormal distribution of fatigue failure data. It is proposed that, along with the SRS, the decay rate is also captured to minimize the discrepancy between field data and representative laboratory tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Adaptive Tracking Algorithm for Convection in Simulated and Remote Sensing Data

A robust and computationally efficient object tracking algorithm is developed by incorporating various tracking techniques. Physical properties of the objects, such as brightness temperature or reflectivity, are not considered. Therefore, the algorithm is adaptable for tracking convection-like features in simulated data and remotely sensed two-dimensional images. In this algorithm, a first guess of the motion, estimated using the Fourier phase shift, is used to predict the candidates for matching. A disparity score is computed for each target–candidate pair. The disparity also incorporates overlapping criteria in the case of large objects. Then the Hungarian method is applied to identify the best pairs by minimizing the global disparity. The high-disparity pairs are unmatched, and their target and candidate are declared expired and newly initiated objects, respectively. They are tested for merger and split on the basis of their size and overlap with the other objects. The sensitivity of track duration is shown for different disparity and size thresholds. The report highlights the algorithm’s ability to study convective life cycles using radar and simulated data over Darwin, Australia. The algorithm skillfully tracks individual convective cells (a few pixels in size) and large convective systems. The duration of tracks and cell size are found to be lognormally distributed over Darwin. The evolution of size and precipitation types of isolated convective cells is presented in the Lagrangian perspective. This algorithm is part of a vision for a modular platform [viz., TINT is not TITAN (TINT) and Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac)] that will evolve into a sustainable choice to analyze atmospheric features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of finite sampling on fatigue damage estimation of wind turbine components: A statistical study

The variability of the wind turbine loads complicates fatigue assessment in the design phase, as performing simulations covering the entire lifetime is computationally expensive. The current work provides important information for assessing the uncertainty in fatigue damage estimation due to finite data. Here we study the sample size effect on mean, variance, and skewness of damage in each wind bin, identify the important wind bins, and study the uncertainty propagation from each wind bin to the lifetime damage using 3600 aeroelastic simulations and bootstrapping. To achieve less than 1% error in the damage estimation across all load channels in the current case study, at least 100 turbulence seeds are needed. Damage in different wind bins follows a lognormal distribution when using the conventional approach of six seeds. The provided insights and information allow the designer to achieve a specific level of accuracy for a given computational cost using strategic bin sampling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dose estimates and their uncertainties for use in epidemiological studies of radiation-exposed populations in the Russian Southern Urals

Many residents of the Russian Southern Urals were exposed to radioactive environmental pollution created by the operations of the Mayak Production Association in the mid- 20 th century. There were two major releases: the discharge of about 1x10 17 Bq of liquid waste into the Techa River between 1949 and 1959; and the atmospheric release of 7.4 * 10 16 Bq as a result an explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility in 1957. The releases into the Techa River resulted in the exposure of more than 30,000 people who lived in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961. The 1957 accident contaminated a larger area with the highest exposure levels in an area that is called the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Current epidemiologic studies of the exposed populations are based on dose estimates obtained using a Monte-Carlo dosimetry system (TRDS-2016MC) that provides multiple realizations of the annual doses for each cohort member. These dose realizations provide a central estimate of the individual dose and information on the uncertainty of these dose estimates. In addition, the correlation of individual annual doses over realizations provides important information on shared uncertainties that can be used to assess the impact of shared dose uncertainties on risk estimate uncertainty.This paper considers dose uncertainties in the TRDS-2016MC. Individual doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed for 48,036 people based on environmental contamination patterns, residential histories, individual 90 Sr body-burden measurements and dietary intakes. Dietary intake of 90 Sr resulted in doses accumulated in active bone marrow (or simply, marrow) that were an order of magnitude greater than those in soft tissues. About 84% of the marrow dose and 50% of the stomach dose was associated with internal exposures. The lognormal distribution is well-fitted to the individual dose realizations, which, therefore, could be expressed and easily operated in terms of geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD). Cohort average GM for marrow and stomach cumulative doses are 0.21 and 0.03 Gy, respectively. Cohort average dose uncertainties in terms of GSD are as follows: for marrow it is 2.93 (90%CI: 2.02–4.34); for stomach and the other non-calcified tissues it is 2.32 (90% CI: 1.78–2.9).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

3-D reconstruction and microstructural characterization of neutron-irradiated U-10Zr fuel using FIB-SEM serial sectioning

Herein, focused ion beam-scanning electron microscopy serial sectioning was applied to characterize the three-dimensional (3-D) porosity and phase regions of a neutron-irradiated U-10 wt% Zr fuel. The specimen was removed from an intermediate radial region of a fuel pin irradiated to 5.7 at.% burn-up. Backscattered electron imaging and energy-dispersive spectroscopy were performed on each serial section, allowing for the characterization of microstructural morphology and composition. Porosity size followed a lognormal distribution, ranging from 1.46 × 10 –4 to 25.58 µm 3 with a total porosity volume fraction of 13.02%. Distinctive microstructural regions were identified by composition and porosity: (1) a Zr-rich region with an average composition of 28.4 wt% Zr and a local porosity fraction of 6.88%, and (2) a U-rich region with an average composition of 97.0 wt% U and a local porosity fraction of 14.11%; subdivided into U-rich—high porosity (16.68%) and U-rich—low porosity (8.04%) regions. The detailed 3-D compositional and porosity regions can improve nuclear fuel performance codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Downscaling atmospheric chemistry simulations with physically consistent deep learning

Abstract. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network (CNN)-based super resolution can be used to downscale atmospheric chemistry simulations with substantially higher accuracy than conventional downscaling methods. This work both demonstrates the downscaling capabilities of modern CNN-based single image super resolution and video super-resolution schemes and develops modifications to these schemes to ensure they are appropriate for use with physical science data. The CNN-based video super-resolution schemes in particular incur only 39 % to 54 % of the grid-cell-level error of interpolation schemes and generate outputs with extremely realistic small-scale variability based on multiple perceptual quality metrics while performing a large (8×10) increase in resolution in the spatial dimensions. Methods are introduced to strictly enforce physical conservation laws within CNNs, perform large and asymmetric resolution changes between common model grid resolutions, account for non-uniform grid-cell areas, super-resolve lognormally distributed datasets, and leverage additional inputs such as high-resolution climatologies and model state variables. High-resolution chemistry simulations are critical for modeling regional air quality and for understanding future climate, and CNN-based downscaling has the potential to generate these high-resolution simulations and ensembles at a fraction of the computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Rate statistics for radio noise from lightning

Radio frequency noise from lightning was measured at several frequencies in the HF - VHF range at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida. The data were examined to determine flashing rate statistics during periods of strong activity from nearby storms. It was found that the time between flashes is modeled reasonably well by a random variable with a lognormal distribution.

Levine, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Accelerated life testing and reliability of high K multilayer ceramic capacitors

The reliability of one lot of high K multilayer ceramic capacitors was evaluated using accelerated life testing. The degradation in insulation resistance was characterized as a function of voltage and temperature. The times to failure at a voltage-temperature stress conformed to a lognormal distribution with a standard deviation approximately 0.5.

Minford, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Stillwater anorthosites - A lunar analog?

Samples of anorthosite from Stillwater complex units AN-I and AN-II have been studied by instrumental neutron activation analysis for FeO, CaO, Na2O, REE, and other trace elements, and the results are discussed. No systematic variations of chemical composition with stratigraphic position were observed. The major and trace compositions of both units appear to be identical, with plagioclase compositions virtually constant throughout both. Thus, there is almost no evidence for evolution of parent magma composition during the genesis of these units. The bulk of the anorthosites appear to consist of cumulus-adcumulus plagioclase and pyroxene. Very little trapped liquid component was found. The chemical elements are not normally or lognormally distributed among samples taken from either anorthosite unit. The irregular distribution of pyroxene oikocrysts indicates that interstitial melt migrated substantially prior to final consolidation of the rock.

Salpas, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Chiu, Long S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Scattering of light by stochastically rough particles

The single particle phase function and the linear polarization for large stochastically deformed spheres have been calculated by Monte Carlo simulation using the geometrical optics approximation. The radius vector of a particle is assumed to obey a bivariate lognormal distribution with three free parameters: mean radius, its standard deviation and the coherence length of the autocorrelation function. All reflections/refractions which include sufficient energy have been included. Real and imaginary parts of the refractive index can be varied without any restrictions. Results and comparisons with some earlier less general theories are presented. Applications of this theory to the photometric properties of atmosphereless bodies and interplanetary dust are discussed.

Peltoniemi, Jouni I.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Statistical properties of shock-accelerated ions in the outer heliosphere

Reported here are statistical studied of interplanetary protons (about 0.5-1.5 MeV) as measured by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in the outer heliosphere between about 1 and 22 AU. The acceleration processes which produce the fluctuations in intensity of the protons throughout the interval studied are caused by solar flare-generated shock waves and corotating shock structures in the solar wind. It is found that the proton count rates can be represented by a lognormal distribution, independent of the phase of the solar cycle in which the measurements were made. Power spectra of the logarithm of the counts show that for frequencies in the range of about 0.02-0.5 cycles per day, the spectra can be characterized as about f exp -2. At lower frequencies, the spectra turn over and flatten. Over the entire frequency range studied, about 0.002-0.5 cycles per day, the spectra are therefore nonfractal. The rollover in the spectra at about 100 days probably represents the reorganization time for solar wind streams within the coronal source at the sun.

Lanzeroti, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Optimal thresholds for the estimation of area rain-rate moments by the threshold method

Optimization of the threshold method, achieved by determination of the threshold that maximizes the correlation between an area-average rain-rate moment and the area coverage of rain rates exceeding the threshold, is demonstrated empirically and theoretically. Empirical results for a sequence of GATE radar snapshots show optimal thresholds of 5 and 27 mm/h for the first and second moments, respectively. Theoretical optimization of the threshold method by the maximum-likelihood approach of Kedem and Pavlopoulos (1991) predicts optimal thresholds near 5 and 26 mm/h for lognormally distributed rain rates with GATE-like parameters. The agreement between theory and observations suggests that the optimal threshold can be understood as arising due to sampling variations, from snapshot to snapshot, of a parent rain-rate distribution. Optimal thresholds for gamma and inverse Gaussian distributions are also derived and compared.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Generation of magnetic fields by chaotic fluid convection - The fast dynamo problem

In the kinematic fast dynamo problem, the underlying nonlinear dynamics of the flow play a critical role in the behavior of a dynamo field. It is presently noted that the two important facets of the problem are the approximately lognormal distribution of vector lengths, and the presence of partial cancellation. It is suggested that these features may be reflected in the magnetic fields observed on the sun.

Finn, John M.↗