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At least 55 records · Page 3

New Clues to the Evolution of Dwarf Carbon Stars From Their Variability and X-Ray Emission

As main-sequence stars with C > O, dwarf carbon (dC) stars are never born alone but inherit carbon-enriched material from a former asymptotic giant branch (AGB) companion. In contrast to M dwarfs in post-mass-transfer binaries, C 2 and/or CN molecular bands allow dCs to be identified with modest-resolution optical spectroscopy, even after the AGB remnant has cooled beyond detectability. Accretion of substantial material from the AGB stars should spin up the dCs, potentially causing a rejuvenation of activity detectable in X-rays. Indeed, a few dozen dCs have recently been found to have photometric variability with periods under a day. However, most of those are likely post-common-envelope binaries, spin–orbit locked by tidal forces, rather than solely spun-up by accretion. Here, we study the X-ray properties of a sample of the five nearest-known dCs with Chandra. Two are detected in X-rays, the only two for which we also detected short-period photometric variability. We suggest that the coronal activity detected so far in dCs is attributable to rapid rotation due to tidal locking in short binary orbits after a common-envelope phase, late in the thermally pulsing (TP) phase of the former C-AGB primary (TP-AGB).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

First discovery of an ultra-cool white dwarf benchmark in common proper motion with an M dwarf

Ultra-cool white dwarfs are among the oldest stellar remnants in the Universe. Their efficient gravitational settling and low effective temperatures are responsible for the smooth spectra they exhibit. For that reason, it is not possible to derive their radial velocities or to find the chemistry of the progenitors. The best that can be done is to infer such properties from associated sources, which are coeval. The simplest form of such a system is a common proper motion pair where one star is an evolved degenerate and the other a main-sequence star. Herein, we present the discovery of the first of such a system, the M dwarf LHS 6328 and the ultra-cool white dwarf PSO J1801+625, from the Pan-STARRS 1 3π survey and the Gaia Data Release 2. Follow-up spectra were collected covering a usable wavelength range of 3750–24 500 Å. Their spectra show that the white dwarf has an effective temperature of 3550 K and surface gravity of log $g$ = 7.45 ± 0.13 or log $g$ = 7.49 ± 0.13 for a CO or He core, respectively, when compared against synthetic spectra of ultra-cool white dwarf atmosphere models. The system has slightly subsolar metallicity with -0.25 < [Fe/H] < 0.0, and a spatial velocity of (U, V, W) = (-114.26 ± 0.24, 222.94 ± 0.60, 10.25 ± 0.34) km s -1 , the first radial velocity and metallicity measurements of an ultra-cool white dwarf. This makes it the first and only benchmark of its kind to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Joint Survey Processing. II. Stellar Proper Motions in the COSMOS Field from Hubble Space Telescope ACS and Subaru Telescope HSC Observations

We analyze stellar proper motions in the COSMOS field to assess the presence of bulk motions. At bright magnitudes (G-band 18.5–20.76 AB), we use the proper motions of 1010 stars in the Gaia DR2 catalog. At the faint end, we compute proper motions of 11,519 pointlike objects at i-band magnitudes 19–25 AB using Hubble ACS and Subaru HSC data, which span two epochs about 11 yr apart. In order to measure these proper motions with unprecedented accuracy at faint magnitudes, we developed a foundational set of astrometric tools that will be required for joint survey processing of data from the next generation of optical/infrared surveys. The astrometric grids of Hubble ACS and Subaru HSC mosaics were corrected at the catalog level using proper motion–propagated and parallax-corrected Gaia DR2 sources. These astrometric corrections were verified using compact extragalactic sources. Upon comparison of our measured proper motions with Gaia DR2, we estimate the uncertainties in our measurements to be ~2–3 mas yr –1 axis –1 , down to 25.5 AB mag. We correct proper motions for the mean motion of the Sun, and we find that late-type main-sequence stars predominantly in the thin disk in the COSMOS field have space velocities mainly toward the Galactic center. We detect candidate high-velocity (≥220 km s –1 ) stars, six of them at ~0.4–6 kpc, from the Gaia sample, and five of them at ~20 kpc, from the faint star HSC and ACS sample. The sources from the faint star sample may be candidate halo members of the Sangarius stream.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Main-sequence Scatter is Real: The Joint Dependence of Galaxy Clustering on Star Formation and Stellar Mass

We present new measurements of the clustering of stellar-mass-complete samples of ∼40,000 SDSS galaxies at z ∼ 0.03 as a joint function of stellar mass and specific star formation rate (sSFR). Our results confirm what Coil et al. find at z ∼ 0.7: galaxy clustering is a stronger function of sSFR at fixed stellar mass than of stellar mass at fixed sSFR. We also find that galaxies above the star-forming main sequence (SFMS) with higher sSFR are less clustered than galaxies below the SFMS with lower sSFR, at a given stellar mass. A similar trend is present for quiescent galaxies. This confirms that main-sequence scatter, and scatter within the quiescent sequence, is physically connected to the large-scale cosmic density field. We compare the resulting galaxy bias versus sSFR, and relative bias versus sSFR ratio, for different galaxy samples across 0 < z < 1.2 to mock galaxy catalogs based on the empirical galaxy evolution model of Behroozi et al. This model fits PRIMUS and DEEP2 clustering data well at intermediate redshift, but agreement with SDSS is not as strong. We show that increasing the correlation between galaxy SFR and halo accretion rate at z ∼ 0 in the model substantially improves agreement with SDSS data. Mock catalogs suggest that central galaxies contribute substantially to the dependence of clustering on sSFR at a given stellar mass and that the signal is not simply an effect of satellite galaxy fraction differences with sSFR. Our results are highly constraining for galaxy evolution models and show that the stellar-to-halo mass relation depends on sSFR.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hidden deep in the halo: selection of a reduced proper motion halo catalogue and mining retrograde streams in the velocity space

ABSTRACT The Milky Way halo is one of the few galactic haloes that provides a unique insight into galaxy formation by resolved stellar populations. Here, we present a catalogue of ∼47 million halo stars selected independent of parallax and line-of-sight velocities, using a combination of Gaia DR3 proper motion and photometry by means of their reduced proper motion. We select high tangential velocity (halo) main sequence stars and fit distances to them using their simple colour-absolute-magnitude relation. This sample reaches out to ∼21 kpc with a median distance of 6.6 kpc thereby probing much further out than would be possible using reliable Gaia parallaxes. The typical uncertainty in their distances is $0.57_{-0.26}^{+0.56}$ kpc. Using the colour range 0.45 < (G0 − GRP, 0) < 0.715, where the main sequence is narrower, gives an even better accuracy down to $0.39_{-0.12}^{+0.18}$ kpc in distance. The median velocity uncertainty for stars within this colour range is 15.5 km s−1. The distribution of these sources in the sky, together with their tangential component velocities, are very well-suited to study retrograde substructures. We explore the selection of two complex retrograde streams: GD-1 and Jhelum. For these streams, we resolve the gaps, wiggles and density breaks reported in the literature more clearly. We also illustrate the effect of the kinematic selection bias towards high proper motion stars and incompleteness at larger distances due to Gaia’s scanning law. These examples showcase how the full RPM catalogue made available here can help us paint a more detailed picture of the build-up of the Milky Way halo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Chemodynamical Analysis of Metal-rich High-eccentricity Stars in the Milky Way's Disk

We present a chemodynamical analysis of 11,562 metal-rich, high-eccentricity halo-like main-sequence stars, which have been referred to as the Splash or Splashed Disk, selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope. When divided into two groups, a low-[α/Fe] population (LAP) and a high-[α/Fe] population (HAP), based on kinematics and chemistry, we find that they exhibit very distinct properties, indicative of different origins. From a detailed analysis of their orbital inclinations, we suggest that the HAP arises from a large fraction (~90%) of heated disk stars and a small fraction (~10%) of in situ stars from a starburst population, likely induced by interaction of the Milky Way with the Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus (GSE) or another early merger. The LAP comprises about half accreted stars from the GSE and half formed by the GSE-induced starburst. Our findings further imply that the Splash stars in our sample originated from at least three different mechanisms: accretion, disk heating, and a merger-induced starburst.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Close substellar-mass companions in stellar wide binaries: discovery and characterization with APOGEE and Gaia DR2

We present a search for close, unresolved companions in a subset of spatially resolved Gaia wide binaries containing main-sequence stars within 200 pc of the Sun, utilizing the APOGEE–Gaia Wide Binary Catalog. A catalogue of 37 wide binaries was created by selecting pairs of stars with nearly identical Gaia positions, parallaxes, and proper motions, and then confirming candidates to be gravitationally bound pairs using APOGEE radial velocities. We identify close, unresolved stellar and substellar candidate companions in these multiple systems using (1) the Gaia binary main sequence and (2) observed periodic radial velocity variations in APOGEE measurements due to the influence of a close substellar-mass companion. The studied wide binary pairs reveal a total of four stellar-mass close companions in four different wide binaries, and four substellar-mass close companion candidates in two wide binaries. The latter are therefore quadruple systems, with one substellar-mass companion orbiting each wide binary component in an S-type orbit. Taken at face value, these candidate systems represent an enhancement of an order of magnitude over the expected occurrence rate of ~2 percent of stars having substellar companions >2 M Jup within ~100-d orbits; we discuss implications and possible explanations for this result. Finally, we compare chemical differences between the components of the wide binaries and the components of the candidate higher-order systems and find that any chemical influence or correlation due to the presence of close companions to wide binary stars is not discernible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Impact of Classical and General Relativistic Obliquity Precessions on the Habitability of Circumstellar Neutron Stars’ Planets

Recently, it has been shown that rocky planets orbiting neutron stars can be habitable under plausible circumstances. If a distant, point-like source of visible light, such as a Sun-like main-sequence star or the gravitationally-lensed accretion disk of a supermassive black hole is present, possible temporal variations Δε{sub p}(t) of the planet’s axial tilt ε {sub p} to the ecliptic plane should be included in the overall habitability budget since the obliquity determines the insolation at a given latitude on a body’ s surface. I point out that, for rather generic initial spin–orbit initial configurations, general relativistic and classical spin variations induced by the post-Newtonian de Sitter and Lense–Thirring components of the field of the host neutron star and by its pull to the planetary oblateness J{sub 2}{sup p} may induce huge and very fast variations of ε {sub p} that would likely have an impact on the habitability of such worlds. In particular, for a planet’s distance of, say, 0.005 au from a 1.4 M {sub ⊙} neutron star corresponding to an orbital period P {sub b} = 0.109 day, obliquity shifts Δε {sub p} as large as ε{sub p}{sup max}−ε{sub p}{sup min}≃50{sup ∘}--100{sup ∘} over characteristic timescales as short as 10 days (J{sub 2}{sup p}) to 3 Myr (Lense–Thirring) may occur for arbitrary orientations of the orbital and spin angular momenta L, S {sub ns}, S {sub p} of the planet-neutron star system. In view of this feature of their spins, I dub such hypothetical planets as “nethotrons.”.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Further Evidence of Modified Spin-down in Sun-like Stars: Pileups in the Temperature–Period Distribution

We combine stellar surface rotation periods determined from NASA's Kepler mission with spectroscopic temperatures to demonstrate the existence of pileups at the long-period and short-period edges of the temperature–period distribution for main-sequence stars with temperatures exceeding ~5500 K. The long-period pileup is well described by a curve of constant Rossby number, with a critical value of Ro crit ≲ Ro ⊙ . The long-period pileup was predicted by van Saders et al. as a consequence of weakened magnetic braking, in which wind-driven angular momentum losses cease once stars reach a critical Rossby number. Stars in the long-period pileup are found to have a wide range of ages (~2–6 Gyr), meaning that, along the pileup, rotation period is strongly predictive of a star's surface temperature but weakly predictive of its age. The short-period pileup, which is also well described by a curve of constant Rossby number, is not a prediction of the weakened magnetic braking hypothesis but may instead be related to a phase of slowed surface spin-down due to core-envelope coupling. The same mechanism was proposed by Curtis et al. to explain the overlapping rotation sequences of low-mass members of differently aged open clusters. The relative dearth of stars with intermediate rotation periods between the short- and long-period pileups is also well described by a curve of constant Rossby number, which aligns with the period gap initially discovered by McQuillan et al. in M-type stars. These observations provide further support for the hypothesis that the period gap is due to stellar astrophysics, rather than a nonuniform star formation history in the Kepler field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evidence for the Late Arrival of Hot Jupiters in Systems with High Host-star Obliquities

It has been shown that hot Jupiters systems with massive, hot stellar primaries exhibit a wide range of stellar obliquities. On the other hand, hot Jupiter systems with low-mass, cool primaries often have stellar obliquities close to zero. Efficient tidal interactions between hot Jupiters and the convective envelopes present in lower-mass main-sequence stars have been a popular explanation for these observations. If this explanation is accurate, then aligned systems should be older than misaligned systems. Likewise, the convective envelope mass of a hot Jupiter's host star should be an effective predictor of its obliquity. We derive homogeneous stellar parameters—including convective envelope masses—for hot Jupiter host stars with high-quality sky-projected obliquity inferences. Using a thin-disk stellar population's Galactic velocity dispersion as a relative age proxy, we find that hot Jupiter host stars with larger-than-median obliquities are older than hot Jupiter host stars with smaller-than-median obliquities. The relative age difference between the two populations is larger for hot Jupiter host stars with smaller-than-median fractional convective envelope masses and is significant at the 3.6σ level. We identify stellar mass, not convective envelope mass, as the best predictor of stellar obliquity in hot Jupiter systems. The best explanation for these observations is that many hot Jupiters in misaligned systems arrived in the close proximity of their host stars long after their parent protoplanetary disks dissipated. The dependence of observed age offset on convective envelope mass suggests that tidal realignment contributes to the population of aligned hot Jupiters orbiting stars with convective envelopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the Geometry of the Near-core Magnetic Field in Massive Stars

It is well-known that the cores of massive stars sustain a stellar dynamo with a complex magnetic field configuration. However, the same cannot be said for the field's strength and geometry at the convective–radiative boundary, which are crucial when performing asteroseismic inference. In this Letter, we present 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of a 7 M ⊙ mid-main-sequence star, with particular attention given to the convective–radiative boundary in the near-core region. Our simulations reveal that the toroidal magnetic field is significantly stronger than the poloidal field in this region, contrary to recent assumptions. Moreover, the rotational shear layer, also important for asteroseismic inference, is specifically confined within the extent of the Brunt–Väisälä frequency peak. These results, which are based on the inferred properties of HD 43317, have widespread implications for asteroseismic studies of rotation, mixing, and magnetism in stars. While we expect our results to be broadly applicable across stars with similar Brunt–Väisälä frequency profiles and stellar masses, we also expect the MHD parameters (e.g., Re m ) and the initial stellar rotation rate to impact the geometry of the field and differential rotation at the convective–radiative interface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing the early Milky Way with GHOST spectra of an extremely metal-poor star in the Galactic disc

ABSTRACT Pristine_183.6849 + 04.8619 (P1836849) is an extremely metal-poor ([Fe/H] = −3.3 ± 0.1) star on a prograde orbit confined to the Galactic disc. Such stars are rare and may have their origins in protogalactic fragments that formed the early Milky Way, in low-mass satellites accreted later, or forming in situ in the Galactic plane. Here, we present a chemo-dynamical analysis of the spectral features between 3700−11 000 Å from a high-resolution spectrum taken during Science Verification of the new Gemini High-resolution Optical SpecTrograph. Spectral features for many chemical elements are analysed (Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni), and valuable upper limits are determined for others (C, Na, Sr, Ba). This main sequence star exhibits several rare chemical signatures, including (i) extremely low metallicity for a star in the Galactic disc, (ii) very low abundances of the light α-elements (Na, Mg, Si) compared to other metal-poor stars, and (iii) unusually large abundances of Cr and Mn, where [Cr, Mn/Fe]NLTE > +0.5. A comparison to theoretical yields from supernova models suggests that two low-mass Population III objects (one 10 M⊙ supernova and one 17 M⊙ hypernova) can reproduce the abundance pattern well (reduced χ2 < 1). When this star is compared to other extremely metal-poor stars on quasi-circular, prograde planar orbits, differences in both chemistry and kinematics imply there is little evidence for a common origin. The unique chemistry of P1836849 is discussed in terms of the earliest stages in the formation of the Milky Way.

Dovgal, Anya↗

Stellar population models based on the SDSS-IV MaStar library of stellar spectra – I. Intermediate-age/old models

ABSTRACT We use the first release of the SDSS/MaStar stellar library comprising ∼9000, high S/N spectra, to calculate integrated spectra of stellar population models. The models extend over the wavelength range 0.36–1.03 µm and share the same spectral resolution ($R\sim 1800$) and flux calibration as the SDSS-IV/MaNGA galaxy data. The parameter space covered by the stellar spectra collected thus far allows the calculation of models with ages and chemical composition in the range $\rm {\mathit{ t}\gt 200 \,Myr, -2 \lt = [Z/H] \lt = + 0.35}$, which will be extended as MaStar proceeds. Notably, the models include spectra for dwarf main-sequence stars close to the core H-burning limit, as well as spectra for cold, metal-rich giants. Both stellar types are crucial for modelling λ > 0.7 µm absorption spectra. Moreover, a better parameter coverage at low metallicity allows the calculation of models as young as 500 Myr and the full account of the blue horizontal branch phase of old populations. We present models adopting two independent sets of stellar parameters (Teff, log g, [Z/H]). In a novel approach, their reliability is tested ‘on the fly’ using the stellar population models themselves. We perform tests with Milky Way and Magellanic Clouds globular clusters, finding that the new models recover their ages and metallicities remarkably well, with systematics as low as a few per cent for homogeneous calibration sets. We also fit a MaNGA galaxy spectrum, finding residuals of the order of a few per cent comparable to the state-of-art models, but now over a wider wavelength range.

Maraston, C.↗

PLATO hare-and-hounds exercise: asteroseismic model fitting of main-sequence solar-like pulsators

ABSTRACT Asteroseismology is a powerful tool to infer fundamental stellar properties. The use of these asteroseismic-inferred properties in a growing number of astrophysical contexts makes it vital to understand their accuracy. Consequently, we performed a hare-and-hounds exercise where the hares simulated data for six artificial main-sequence stars and the hounds inferred their properties based on different inference procedures. To mimic a pipeline such as that planned for the PLATO mission, all hounds used the same model grid. Some stars were simulated using the physics adopted in the grid, others a different one. The maximum relative differences found (in absolute value) between the inferred and true values of the mass, radius, and age were 4.32, 1.33, and 11.25 per cent, respectively. The largest systematic differences in radius and age were found for a star simulated assuming gravitational settling, not accounted for in the model grid, with biases of −0.88 per cent (radius) and 8.66 per cent (age). For the mass, the most significant bias (−3.16 per cent) was found for a star with a helium enrichment ratio outside the grid range. Moreover, an ∼7 per cent dispersion in age was found when adopting different prescriptions for the surface corrections or shifting the classical observations by ±1σ. The choice of the relative weight given to the classical and seismic constraints also impacted significantly the accuracy and precision of the results. Interestingly, only a few frequencies were required to achieve accurate results on the mass and radius. For the age the same was true when at least one l = 2 mode was considered.

Cunha, M. S. (ORCID:0000000182377343)↗

Stellar multiplicity and stellar rotation: insights from APOGEE

ABSTRACT We measure rotational broadening in spectra taken by the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey to characterize the relationship between stellar multiplicity and rotation. We create a sample of 2786 giants and 24 496 dwarfs with stellar parameters and multiple radial velocities from the APOGEE pipeline, projected rotation speeds vsin i determined from our own pipeline, and distances, masses, and ages measured by Sanders & Das. We use the statistical distribution of the maximum shift in the radial velocities, ΔRVmax, as a proxy for the close binary fraction to explore the interplay between stellar evolution, rotation, and multiplicity. Assuming that the minimum orbital period allowed is the critical period for Roche Lobe overflow and rotational synchronization, we calculate theoretical upper limits on expected vsin i and ΔRVmax values. These expectations agree with the positive correlation between the maximum ΔRVmax and vsin i values observed in our sample as a function of log(g). We find that the fast rotators in our sample have a high occurrence of short-period [log(P/d) ≲ 4] companions. We also find that old, rapidly rotating main-sequence stars have larger completeness-corrected close binary fractions than their younger peers. Furthermore, rapidly rotating stars with large ΔRVmax consistently show differences of 1–10 Gyr between the predicted gyrochronological and measured isochronal ages. These results point towards a link between rapid rotation and close binarity through tidal interactions. We conclude that stellar rotation is strongly correlated with stellar multiplicity in the field, and caution should be taken in the application of gyrochronology relations to cool stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A study of convective core overshooting as a function of stellar mass based on two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations

ABSTRACT We perform two-dimensional (2D) numerical simulations of core convection for zero-age main-sequence stars covering a mass range from 3 to 20 M⊙. The simulations are performed with the fully compressible time-implicit code music. We study the efficiency of overshooting, which describes the ballistic process of convective flows crossing a convective boundary, as a function of stellar mass and luminosity. We also study the impact of artificially increasing the stellar luminosity for 3 M⊙ models. The simulations cover hundreds to thousands of convective turnover time-scales. Applying the framework of extreme plume events previously developed for convective envelopes, we derive overshooting lengths as a function of stellar masses. We find that the overshooting distance (dov) scales with the stellar luminosity (L) and the convective core radius (rconv). We derive a scaling law $d_{\rm ov} \propto L^{1/3} r_{\rm conv}^{1/2}$, which is implemented in a one-dimensional stellar evolution code and the resulting stellar models are compared to observations. The scaling predicts values for the overshooting distance that significantly increase with stellar mass, in qualitative agreement with observations. Quantitatively, however, the predicted values are underestimated for masses ≳10 M⊙. Our 2D simulations show the formation of a nearly adiabatic layer just above the Schwarzschild boundary of the convective core, as exhibited in recent three-dimensional simulations of convection. The most luminous models show a growth in size with time of the nearly adiabatic layer. This growth seems to slow down as the upper edge of the nearly adiabatic layer gets closer to the maximum overshooting length and as the simulation time exceeds the typical thermal diffusive time-scale in the overshooting layer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Heating events in the nascent solar system recorded by rare earth element isotopic fractionation in refractory inclusions

Equilibrium condensation of solar gas is often invoked to explain the abundance of refractory elements in planets and meteorites. This is partly motivated, by the observation that the depletions in both the least and most refractory rare earth elements (REEs) in meteoritic group II calcium-aluminum–rich inclusions (CAIs) can be reproduced by thermodynamic models of solar nebula condensation. We measured the isotopic compositions of Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Er, and Yb in eight CAIs to test this scenario. Contrary to expectation for equilibrium condensation, we find light isotope enrichment for the most refractory REEs and more subdued isotopic variations for the least refractory REEs. This suggests that group II CAIs formed by a two-stage process involving fast evaporation of preexisting materials, followed by near-equilibrium recondensation. The calculated time scales are consistent with heating in events akin to FU Orionis– or EX Lupi–type outbursts of eruptive pre–main-sequence stars.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bioverse: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Capabilities of Extremely Large Telescopes to Probe Earth-like O 2 Levels in Nearby Transiting Habitable-zone Exoplanets

Molecular oxygen is a strong indicator of life on Earth and may indicate biological processes on exoplanets too. Recent studies proposed that Earth-like O 2 levels might be detectable on nearby exoplanets using high-resolution spectrographs on future extremely large telescopes (ELTs). However, these studies did not consider constraints like relative velocities, planet occurrence rates, and target observability. We expanded on past studies by creating a homogeneous catalog of 286,391 main-sequence stars within 120 pc using Gaia DR3 and used the Bioverse framework to simulate the likelihood of finding nearby transiting Earth analogs. We also simulated a survey of M dwarfs within 20 pc accounting for η ⊕ estimates, transit probabilities, relative velocities, and target observability to determine how long ELTs and theoretical 50–100 m ground-based telescopes need to observe to probe for Earth-like O 2 levels with an R = 100,000 spectrograph. This would only be possible within 50 yr for up to ~21% of nearby M-dwarf systems if a suitable transiting habitable-zone Earth analog was discovered, assuming signals from every observable partial transit from each ELT can be combined. If so, Earth-like O 2 levels could be detectable on TRAPPIST-1 d–g within 16–55 yr, respectively, and about half that time with an R = 500,000 spectrograph. These results have important implications for whether ELTs can survey nearby habitable-zone Earth analogs for O 2 via transmission spectroscopy. Our work provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the ground-based capabilities to search for life beyond the solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗