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At least 55 records · Page 3

Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street

Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate forcing uncertainty overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over the past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of the key contributing elements. Recent work has produced modest increases only in the confidence of the uncertainty estimate itself. This review summarizes the contributions toward reducing the uncertainty in the aerosol forcing of climate made by satellite observations, measurements taken within the atmosphere, as well as modeling and data assimilation. We adopt a more measurement-oriented perspective than most reviews of the subject in assessing the strengths and limitations of each; gaps and possible ways to fill them are considered. Currently planned programs supporting advanced, global-scale satellite and surface-based aerosol, cloud, and precursor gas observations, climate modeling, and intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing the underlying physical and chemical processes involved, are all essential. But in addition, new efforts are needed: (a) to obtain systematic aircraft in situ measurements capturing the multi-variate probability distribution functions of particle optical, microphysical, and chemical properties (and associated uncertainty estimates), as well as co-variability with meteorology, for the major aerosol airmass types; (b) to conceive, develop, and implement a suborbital (aircraft plus surface-based) program aimed at systematically quantifying the cloud-scale microphysics, cloud optical properties, and cloud-related vertical velocities associated with aerosol-cloud interactions; and (c) to focus much more research on integrating the unique contributions of satellite observations, suborbital measurements, and modeling, to reduce the persistent uncertainty in aerosol climate forcing.

aerosol climate forcing↗

Properties and Controlling Processes of Aerosol and Cloud Condensation Nuclei in Marine Boundary Layer Over Eastern North Atlantic (Final Report)

Remote marine low cloud systems have large spatial and temporal coverages. Because of their relatively low optical thickness and background aerosol concentrations, marine low clouds are particularly susceptible to perturbations in aerosols associated with anthropogenic emissions. Recent studies show that a large fraction of the global aerosol indirect forcing can be attributed to changes in marine low clouds, despite their relatively long distance from most anthropogenic sources. Currently, there remain large uncertainties in the magnitude of the global aerosol indirect radiative forcing. One major contribution to this large uncertainty derives from poor understanding of the aerosols under natural conditions, the perturbation by anthropogenic emissions, and the processes that drive them. In this project, we took advantage of the comprehensive, multi-dimensional characterization of meteorological parameters, trace gases, aerosol, cloud, and drizzle fields during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) and the long-term measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island. By synergistically combining in situ measurements, remote sensing retrievals, and model simulations, we quantified aerosol properties in the ENA, their vertical profiles, and variations with season, synoptic state, and airmass. We investigated key aerosol processes, including entrainment of free troposphere aerosol into marine boundary layer, new particle formation, growth of Aitken mode particles, and the influences of these processes on the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) population in marine boundary layer. The representation of key aerosol processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was evaluated using the observations. This project has led to 26 publications, which are listed at the end of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Does The Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?

Observations and analyses of water vapor and clouds in the tropics over the past decade suggest a different approach to radiative climate feedbacks: namely, that high clouds and high free-tropospheric relative humidity are largely tied to each other, and that the main feedback consists in changing the relative areas of cloudy/moist regions vis a vis clear/dry regions in response to the surface temperature of the cloudy/moist regions - as opposed to altering the humidity in either of the regions. This is an intrinsically 2-dimensional (horizontal and vertical) effect which does not readily enter simple 1-dimensional (vertical) radiative-convective schemes which emphasize average humidity, etc. Preliminary analyses of cloud data for the eastern part of the Western Pacific from the Japanese GMS-5(Geostationary Meteorological Satellite), are supportive of this suggestion - pointing to a 15% reduction in cloudy/moist area for a 1C increase of the sea surface temperature as measured by the cloud-weighted SST (sea surface temperature). The implication of this result is examined using a simple 2-dimensional radiative-convective model. The calculations show that such a change in the tropics would lead to a strong negative feedback in the global climate, with a feedback factor of about -1.7, which, if correct, would easily dominate the positive water vapor feedback found in current models. This new feedback mechanism, in effect, constitutes an adaptive infrared iris that opens and closes in order to control the OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) in response to changes in surface temperature in a manner similar to the way in which an eye's iris opens and closes in response to changing light levels. The climate sensitivity resulting from this thermostatic mechanism is consistent with the independent determination by Lindzen and Giannitisis (1998). Preliminary attempts to replicate observations with GCMs (General Circulation Models) suggest that models lack such a negative cloud/moist areal feedback.

Lindzen, Richard S.↗

Two Dimensional Wake Vortex Simulations in the Atmosphere: Preliminary Sensitivity Studies

A numerical large-eddy simulation model is currently being used to quantify aircraft wake vortex behavior with meteorological observables. The model, having a meteorological framework, permits the interaction of wake vortices with environments characterized by crosswind shear, stratification, and humidity. The addition of grid-scale turbulence as an initial condition appeared to have little consequence. Results show that conventional nondimensionalizations work very well for vortex pairs embedded in stably stratified flows. However, this result is based on simple environments with constant Brunt-Vaisala frequency. Results presented here also show that crosswind profiles exert important and complex interactions on the trajectories of wake vortices. Nonlinear crosswind profiles tended to arrest the descent of wake vortex pairs. The member of the vortex pair with vorticity of same sign as the vertical change in the ambient along-track vorticity may be deflected upwards.

Proctor, F. H.↗

Quantifying Methane Leak Emissions by Fused Airborne Imaging Spectroscopy with in Situ Surface Mobile and Airborne Observations of a California Producing Oil Field

Methane (CH4) emission budgets remain uncertain and are projected to grow as oil and gas production from short-lived wells increases and their subsequent transport through aging gas distribution networks. Orders-of-magnitude variations in temporal, spatial, and emission scales present a key challenge to leak detection and quantification. Also, the probability distributions for large and stochastic, leaky systems such as geological reservoirs (by natural migration-seeps) and petroleum production from those reservoirs remain largely unknown, needed to address current approach limitations. The scale of many petroleum systems favors remote sensing, but the sensitivity of such systems often precludes detection of weak emissions. Consequently, an accurate evaluation requires that the relative contribution from the emission "tails" of small leaks also be quantified, which is best carried out using high-sensitivity in situ methods. Fusion of remote sensing and in situ approaches leverages complementary capabilities to address these limitations. We show results from mobile surface (AMOG) and airborne in situ (AJAX) and thermal-infrared (TIR) hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy (Mako) data applied to a producing oil field in the California Central Valley near Bakersfield. AMOG is an automobile-based mobile lab that measures 13 trace gases, aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles, 3D winds and other meteorology, and atmospheric column measurements by solar spectroscopy at highway speeds. AJAX measures 5 trace gases and 3D winds at ~140 m/s. Mako is a broad-area TIR imaging spectrometer that can discriminate multiple gases present in each pixel acquired. In situ-derived, total field emissions were 31±16 Gg/yr CH4. This was compared with Mako-derived emissions from all plumes identified across the study site. We found that super-emitters were not the dominant emissions mode and the spatial pattern of plume locations from production infrastructure was correlated to geological structures.

Leifer, Ira↗

Coupled ice-ocean variability in the Greenland Sea

A major surface feature of the Greenland Sea during winter is the frequent eastward extension of sea ice south of 75 deg N and an associated embayment to the north. These features are nominally connected with the East Greenland Current, and both the promontory) and the embayment are readily apparent on climatic ice charts. However, there are significant changes in these features on time-scales as short as a few days. Using a combination of satellite microwave images (SSM/I) of ice cover, meteorological data and in situ velocity, temperature and salinity records, we relate the ice distribution and its changes to the developing structure and circulation of the upper ocean during winter 1988-1989. Our measurements illustrate the preconditioning that leads to convective overturn, which in turn brings warmer water to the surface and results in the rapid disappearance of ice. In particular, the surface was cooled to the freezing point by early December and the salinity then increased through ice formation (about 0.016 m/d) and brine rejection. Once the vertical density gradient was sufficiently eroded, a period of high heat flux (greater than 300 W/sq m) in late January provided enough buoyancy loss to convectively mix the upper water column to at least 200 m. We estimate vertical velocities at about 3 cm/s downward during the initial sinking. The deepening of the thermocline raised surface temperatures by over 1 C resulting in nearly 1.5 x 105 km of ice-melt within two days. Average rates of ice retreat are about 2 km/d southwestward, generally consistent with a wind-driven flow. Comparison of hydrographic surveys from before and after the overturning indicate the fresh water was advected out of the area, possibly to the south and east of our moorings.

Roach, A. T.↗

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) for east central Florida which assimilates in-situ and remotely-sensed observational data into a series of high-resolution gridded analyses. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short-ten-n forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models such as the Rapid Update Cycle and Eta models. LDIS combines all available data to produce grid analyses of primary variables (wind, temperature, etc.) at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. These analyses of primary variables can be used to compute diagnostic quantities such as vorticity and divergence. This paper demonstrates the utility of LDIS over east central Florida for a warm season case study. The evolution of a significant thunderstorm outflow boundary is depicted through horizontal and vertical cross section plots of wind speed, divergence, and circulation. In combination with a suitable visualization too], LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving mesoscale weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Reducing Uncertainty in Offshore Wind Energy Yield Estimates via a Metocean Reference Site

The offshore wind industry is burgeoning in the coastal waters of the United States, specifically along the Atlantic. For wind energy to be successful, reliable observations and model simulations are needed for resource assessment and forecasting. While many of these activities have already begun, there is currently an absence of observations at hub-height in these waters, with the closest available hub-height measurements usually taken onshore. Deployment of floating lidars has occurred through various federally funded projects, but only encapsulates time periods of a couple of years at best. Private industry is also beginning to leverage floating lidars, but this data is often proprietary, and not shared with the general public. In this work, we make the case for a metocean reference site for long-term offshore wind energy. Specifically, we quantify the impact of having a metocean reference site compared to other methods of determining hub-height winds and energy production. We use an offshore floating lidar to directly measure the wind resource, and compare these measurements to predictions derived from other widely-available surface meteorological variables. These prediction methods (vertical extrapolation, machine learning, and NWP output) produce a variety of vertical wind speed profiles, of which produce different energy yield estimates for a reference offshore turbine (Figure 1). While some methods perform reasonably well against the lidar, the uncertainty in these energy yield estimates has financial implications, further illustrating the need for long-term measurements in coastal waters.

machine learning↗

An Investigation of Current and Future Data Systems in Numerical Meteorology

The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) constitute the advanced microwave sounding system to be flown on the EOS-PM platform. Similar instruments (the AMSU-A corresponding to the AMSU and the AMSU-B corresponding to the MHS) are scheduled to become operational on the NOAA polar orbiting satellites beginning with NOAA-K. The unique characteristics of the AMSU-MHS instruments, as compared to the capabilities of their infrared and microwave predecessors, introduce new opportunities, and challenges, for operational retrievals of atmospheric structure. Not only will these new data improve present capabilities for the retrieval of atmospheric profiles of temperature and moisture, but they will provide the only opportunity for successfully retrieving atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles in the presence of modest amounts of cloud and precipitation. A complementary opportunity is presented by the potential of the AMSU-MHS to obtain information about the structure of clouds and precipitation. The data sets obtained will contribute to the current knowledge of global water and energy budgets, and provide critical information on the horizontal and vertical distribution of tropospheric water vapor, the spatial and temporal distribution of rain, and the relationship of cloud formation and dissipation to atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics.

Diak, George R.↗

Strategic Ozone Sounding Networks: Review of Design and Accomplishments

Ozone soundings are used to integrate models, satellite, aircraft and ground-based measurements for better interpretation of ozone variability, including atmospheric losses (predominantly in the stratosphere) and pollution (troposphere). A well-designed network of ozonesonde stations gives information with high vertical and horizontal resolution on a number of dynamical and chemical processes, allowing us to answer questions not possible with aircraft campaigns or current satellite technology. Strategic ozonesonde networks are discussed for high, mid- and low latitude studies. The Match sounding network was designed specifically to follow ozone depletion within the polar vortex; the standard sites are at middle to high northern hemisphere latitudes and typically operate from December through mid-March. Three mid-latitude strategic networks (the IONS series) operated over North America in July-August 2004, March-May and August 2006, and April and June-July-2008. These were designed to address questions about tropospheric ozone budgets and sources, including stratosphere-troposphere transport, and to validate satellite instruments and models. A global network focusing on processes in the equatorial zone, SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), has operated since 1998 in partnership with NOAA, NASA and the Meteorological Services of host countries. Examples of important findings from these networks are described,

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Radar concepts for the next generation of spaceborne observations of cloud and precipitation processes

Two decades of spaceborne cloud and precipitation radar data provided by the TRMM’s Precipitation Radar (PR) [1], CloudSat’s Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) [2,3] and GPM’s Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) [4] have enabled unprecedented advancements in the global mapping of occurrence and vertical structure of most types of meteorological events. After the immense success of these radars, two new spaceborne atmospheric radars, the EarthCARE Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) [5], and the Radar in a CubeSat (RainCube) [6] have been developed and will be launched in the upcoming years, and several new radar concepts have been developed and are being considered for a variety of mission concepts. For example, spaceborne precipitation and cloud radars operating at multiple frequencies (e.g., Ku-, Ka- and W-band simultaneously) with a single antenna, and that provide scanning, polarimetric and Doppler capabilities at all frequencies; extremely compact radar architectures that enable accommodation of this category of radars in spacecrafts as small as a 6U CubeSats, as well as Doppler-capable millimeter-wave weather radars for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites, are being defined and developed. These new instrument concepts are intended to fill the current observational gaps in the advancement of weather and climate models, and leverage on the TRMM, GPM and CloudSat experiences.

Sanchez-Barbetty, Mauricio↗

Polarimeter + Lidar Derived Aerosol Particle Number Concentration

In this study, we propose a simple method to derive vertically resolved aerosol particle number concentration (Na) using combined polarimetric and lidar remote sensing observations. This method relies on accurate polarimeter retrievals of the fine-mode column-averaged aerosol particle extinction cross section and accurate lidar measurements of vertically resolved aerosol particle extinction coefficient such as those provided by multiwavelength high spectral resolution lidar. We compare the resulting lidar + polarimeter vertically resolved Na product to in situ Na data collected by airborne instruments during the NASA aerosol cloud meteorology interactions over the western Atlantic experiment (ACTIVATE). Based on all 35 joint ACTIVATE flights in 2020, we find a total of 32 collocated in situ and remote sensing profiles that occur on 11 separate days, which contain a total of 322 cloud-free vertically resolved altitude bins of 150 m resolution. We demonstrate that the lidar + polarimeter Na agrees to within 106% for 90% of the 322 vertically resolved points. We also demonstrate similar agreement to within 121% for the polarimeter-derived column-averaged Na. We find that the range-normalized mean absolute deviation (NMAD) for the polarimeter-derived column-averaged Na is 21%, and the NMAD for the lidar + polarimeter-derived vertically resolved Na is 16%. Taken together, these findings suggest that the error in the polarimeter-only column-averaged Na and the lidar + polarimeter vertically resolved Na are of similar magnitude and represent a significant improvement upon current remote sensing estimates of Na.

Aerosol number concentration↗

Polarimeter + Lidar–Derived Aerosol Particle Number Concentration

In this study, we propose a simple method to derive vertically resolved aerosol particle number concentration (Na) using combined polarimetric and lidar remote sensing observations. This method relies on accurate polarimeter retrievals of the fine-mode column-averaged aerosol particle extinction cross section and accurate lidar measurements of vertically resolved aerosol particle extinction coefficient such as those provided by multiwavelength high spectral resolution lidar. We compare the resulting lidar + polarimeter vertically resolved N(a) product to in situ N(a) data collected by airborne instruments during the NASA aerosol cloud meteorology interactions over the western Atlantic experiment (ACTIVATE). Based on all 35 joint ACTIVATE flights in 2020, we find a total of 32 collocated in situ and remote sensing profiles that occur on 11separate days, which contain a total of 322 cloud-free vertically resolved altitude bins of 150 m resolution. We demonstrate that the lidar + polarimeter N(a) agrees to within 106% for 90% of the 322 vertically resolved points. We also demonstrate similar agreement to within 121% for the polarimeter-derived column-averaged N(a). We find that the range-normalized mean absolute deviation (NMAD) for the polarimeter-derived column-averaged Na is 21%, and the NMAD for the lidar + polarimeter-derived vertically resolved Na is 16%. Taken together, these findings suggest that the error in the polarimeter-only column-averaged N(a) and the lidar + polarimeter vertically resolved N(a) are of similar magnitude and represent a significant improvement upon current remote sensing estimates of N(a).

RSP↗

AMU NEXRAD Exploitation Task

This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's NEXRAD Exploitation Task. The objectives of this task are to determine what radar signatures are present prior to and at the time of convection initiation, and to determine radar signatures which will help distinguish whether the ensuing convection will become severe. Radar data from the WSR-88D radar located at NWS Melbourne (WSR-88D/KMLB) were collected between June and September 1995, and 16 convective case studies were analyzed for which the radar was operating during the entire period of interest. All WSR-88D/KMLB products were scrutinized for their utility in detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures. Through process of elimination, it was found that the 0.5 deg reflectivity product with the lowest reflectivity values displayed is the best product to monitor for convection initiation signatures. Seven meteorological features associated with the initiation of deep convection were identified: the Merritt Island and Indian River convergence zones, interlake convergence, horizontal convective rolls, the sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries, and fires. Their reflectivity values ranged from -5 to 20 dBZ. Of the three severe weather phenomena (winds greater than or equal to 50 kts, tornado, 3/4 inch hail), high wind events due to microbursts were most common in the data set. It was found that the values and trends of composite reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid, and core aspect ratio were key indicators of the potential of a cell to produce a microburst. The data were not analyzed for the other two severe weather phenomena because they rarely occurred during the data collection period. This report also includes suggestions for new WSR-88D products, summaries of ongoing research aimed at creating new products, and explicit recommended procedures for detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures in the radar data using the currently available technology.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗

Simulated Feasibility of 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of implementing a radio frequency (RF)–based network of satellites for 3D lightning mapping in high resolution from low Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing tools of the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg-Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

CubeSpark↗

Simulated Feasibility of 3-D Lightning Mapping From Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2-D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3-D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of high-resolution 3-D lightning mapping using a radio frequency (RF)-based network of satellites from low-Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing lightning mapping array (LMA) tools, modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg–Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3-D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high-frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3-D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

WMO Assessment 2022: Chapter 3 Summary

Efforts for the 2022 Scientific Assessment on Ozone Depletion published by the World Meteorological Organization are well underway. Chapter 3, titled “Update on Global Ozone: Past, Present, and Future”, presents our current understanding of global ozone outside of the polar regions and this talk summarizes some of the highlights and changes from the previous Assessment in 2018. Since the last Assessment, the longer observational records show a small, significant increase in near-global total column ozone. A small significant increase in total column ozone is also seen in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, but not yet the tropics. Different processes operating at different altitudes complicate the interpretation of the overall total column trend. However, a significant increase in upper stratospheric ozone noted in the previous Assessment continues, driven by declines in ozone depleting substances and increases in greenhouse gases. Model simulations support our understanding of these trends. Over the coming century, we expect an increase in global stratospheric ozone as the concentrations of ozone depleting substances decline. The future evolution for different latitudes and vertical levels depends on the future concentrations of greenhouse gases and precursors of tropospheric ozone., These other influences may lead to total ozone column levels that remain below 1980 values even after ozone depleting substance concentrations have recovered to pre-1980 levels.

Birgit Hassler↗

Comparison of buoy-mounted 74-kHz acoustic Doppler current profilers with vector-measuring current meters

In December 1991, the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) deployed two meteorological buoys in the Southern California Bight on a transect between San Diego and San Clemente Island. Each buoy consisted of a 10-m discus hull instrumented to measure a suite of meteorological parameters, and, for the first time in the NDBC buoy program, acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) were included to gather hourly current profiles beneath the two buoys. Moorings instrumented with seven vector-measuring current meters (VMCMs) were deployed adjacent to the NDBC buoys for several months and provided current observations for comparison with the ADCP measurements. When wave-induced buoy motion is not overly large, the observations of horizontal current made by the ADCP and the VMCM are highly correlated. Time series of differences between ADCP and VMCM measurements are characterized by a mean difference (bias error) of about 0.01 m/s and standard deviation of about 0.035 m/s for 1-h observations. Estimates of current spectra from ADCP and VMCM records suggest that the ADCP system can be characterized by a white noise level of 2 x 10(exp -3) sq m/sq s/cph. However, when the in situ environment is such that large surface waves are present (including breaking waves and whitecaps), erroneous current values are usually reported by the ADCP. Mean values of vertical velocities reported by the ADCP appear to be much larger than what could be physically expected and are therefore deemed unreliable.

Winant, Clinton↗