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At least 55 records · Page 3

Making Heliophysics Research More Open and Accessible at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community seeks to improve our understanding of space weather events and their impact on human activities. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) mission is to support the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform that brings together space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. This presentation reports on CCMC’s ongoing efforts in making Heliophysics models and data more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will also explore interoperability within the ecosystem of CCMC services and how this ecosystem interoperates with external partner services and data streams.

space weather↗

Application of the AI2 Climate Emulator to E3SMv2's Global Atmosphere Model, With a Focus on Precipitation Fidelity

Abstract Can the current successes of global machine learning‐based weather simulators be generalized beyond 2‐week forecasts to stable and accurate multiyear runs? The recently developed AI2 Climate Emulator (ACE) suggests this is feasible, based upon 10‐year simulations with a network trained on output from a physics‐based global atmosphere model using a grid spacing of approximately 110 km and forced by a repeating annual cycle of sea‐surface temperature. Here we show that ACE, without modification, can be trained to emulate another major atmospheric model, EAMv2, run at a comparable grid spacing for at least 10 years with similarly small climate biases—a prerequisite to wider applicability. With an analysis that combines multiple temporal, spatial, and frequency domain perspectives, we show that ACE faithfully represents the spatiotemporal structure of EAMv2 precipitation and related variables. Finally, we show that a pretrained ACE network is able to adapt to a new global climate model simulation data set with 10 fewer training steps than when starting from random initialization, all while still maintaining low levels of climate bias. Further analysis of these fine‐tuning experiments reveal ACE's intriguing ability to interpolate between distinct global climate models.

Duncan, James P. C.↗

Numerical simulation of the geographical sources of water for Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) Precipitation

There are several important research questions that the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is actively pursuing, namely: What is the intensity of the water cycle and how does it change? And what is the sustainability of water resources? Much of the research to address these questions is directed at understanding the atmospheric water cycle. In this paper, we have used a new diagnostic tool, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVTs), to quantify the how much precipitation originated as continental or oceanic evaporation. This shows how long water can remain in the atmosphere and how far it can travel. The model-simulated data are analyzed over regions of interest to the GEWEX community, specifically, their Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) that are in place in the United States, Europe, Asia, Brazil, Africa and Canada. The paper presents quantitative data on how much each continent and ocean on Earth supplies water for each CSE. Furthermore, the analysis also shows the seasonal variation of the water sources. For example, in the United States, summertime precipitation is dominated by continental (land surface) sources of water, while wintertime precipitation is dominated by the Pacific Ocean sources of water. We also analyze the residence time of water in the atmosphere. The new diagnostic shows a longer residence time for water (9.2 days) than more traditional estimates (7.5 days). We emphasize that the results are based on model simulations and they depend on the model s veracity. However, there are many potential uses for the new diagnostic tool in understanding weather processes and large and small scales.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Monitoring the environment by remote sensing

Structural features of ecosystems, such as leaf area index, phytomass and canopy chemical contents, are beginning to be estimated from remotely sensed data. This development, in combination with ecological modeling, is permitting the estimation of functional features of ecosystems including primary productivity and nutrient cycling. Such techniques are also being applied to the problem of monitoring the effects of air or water pollutants on biota. Sensors that obtain data at a coarse spatial scale (1 km2 or more) are also permitting the observation of biospheric patterns at a large regional or global scale for the first time. When coupled with atmospheric measurements, field data and simulation models, such data may serve to address ecological processes, including pollution effects, at large regional or global scales.

Westman, Walter E.↗

Shortened Duration of Global Warming Slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs). Due to interactions with natural variability, rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales. In this work, by analyzing observed and model-simulated data, we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing. We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one. This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability. Moreover, the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast - Part 1: Analysis of Aerosols, Gases, and Wet Deposition Chemistry

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and adjoining East Coast of North America are of great importance for atmospheric research and have been extensively studied for several decades. This broad region exhibits complex meteorological features, diverse cloud types, and a wide range of conditions associated with gas and particulate species that originate from many sources regionally and from other continents. As Part 1 of a 2-part paper series, this work provides a characterization of quantities associated with atmospheric chemistry, including gases, aerosols, and wet deposition, based on satellite observations, ground-based data, model simulations, and reanalysis products. Key results include spatial and seasonal differences in composition along the North American East Coast and over the WNAO associated with varying sources of smoke and dust and meteorological drivers such as temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Spatial and seasonal variations of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ozone highlight different pathways towards accumulation of these species in the troposphere. Spatial distributions of speciated aerosol optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol mass mixing ratios show a clear seasonal cycle highlighting the influence of both natural and anthropogenic sources in addition to the impact of intercontinental transport on their vertical profiles. Analysis of long-term climate model simulations of aerosol species and satellite observations of carbon monoxide confirm that there has been a significant decline in recent decades among anthropogenic constituents owing to regulatory activities. The results can inform current and future lines of research for the region.

Corral, Andrea↗

A Joint Probability Density–Based Decomposition of Turbulence in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract In convective flows, vertical turbulent fluxes, covariances between vertical velocity and scalar thermodynamic variables, include contributions from local mixing and large-scale coherent motions, such as updrafts and downdrafts. The relative contribution of these motions to the covariance is important in turbulence parameterizations. However, the flux partition is challenging, especially in regions without convective cloud. A method to decompose the vertical flux based on the corresponding joint probability density function (JPD) is introduced. The JPD-based method partitions the full JPD into a joint Gaussian part and the complement, which represent the local mixing and the large-scale coherent motions, respectively. The coherent part can be further divided into updraft and downdraft parts based on the sign of vertical velocity. The flow decomposition is independent of water condensate (cloud) and can be applied in cloud-free convection, the subcloud layer, and stratiform cloud regions. The method is applied to large-eddy simulation model data of three boundary layers. The results are compared with traditional cloud and cloud-core decompositions and a decaying scalar conditional sampling method. The JPD-based method includes a single free parameter and sensitivity tests show weak dependence on the parameter values. The results of the JPD-based method are somewhat similar to the cloud-core and conditional sampling methods. However, differences in the relative magnitude of the flux decomposition terms suggest that an objective definition of the flow regions is subtle and diagnosed flow properties like updraft characteristics depend on the sampling method. Moreover, the flux decomposition depends on the thermodynamic variable and convection characteristics.

Chinita, Maria J.↗

US Department of Energy, Office of Science High Performance Computing Facility Operational Assessment 2019 Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility

Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL's) Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) continues to surpass its operational target goals: supporting users; delivering fast, reliable computational ecosystems; creating innovative solutions for high performance computing (HPC) needs; and managing risks, safety, and security associated with operating some of the most powerful computers in the world. The results can be seen in the cutting-edge science conducted by users and the praise from the research community. Calendar year (CY) 2019 was a big year as OLCF staff ran five world-class resources (the leadershipclass computers Titan and Summit, the large analysis cluster called Eos, and the massive parallel filesystems called Atlas and Alpine)) and also began power and cooling upgrades for a 2021 exascale system called Frontier. While continuing exceptional operation of Titan, Eos, and Rhea, the OLCF released the Summit supercomputer for production on January 1, 2019. Summit debuted as the most capable and efficient system in its class and has been recognized as the most powerful system in the world for its performance on both the high performance linpack (HPL) and conjugate gradient (HPCG) benchmark applications since June 2018 according to TOP500. Summit represents the culmination of a multiyear effort between the OLCF, IBM, NVIDIA, and Mellanox to deliver a system that is unmatched for modeling, simulation, data analysis, and learning. To hit the ground running with science-ready applications on day one, application teams worked closely with the OLCF through the Center for Accelerated Application Readiness (CAAR) program for years in advance of the Summit deployment. CY 2019 was filled with outstanding results and accomplishments: a very high rating from users on overall satisfaction for the sixth year in a row; a tremendous amount of core-hours delivered to researchers from two leadership-class systems; and success in delivering on the allocation split of roughly 60%, 30%, and 10% of core-hours offered for the Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE), Advanced Scientific Computing Research Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC), and Director's Discretionary (DD) programs, respectively (see Operational Performance section). These accomplishments, coupled with the high utilization rates (overall and capability usage), represent the fulfillment of the promise of both leadership-class machines: efficient facilitation of leadership-class computational applications. Table ES.1 presents a summary of the 2019 OLCF metric targets and the associated results. More information can be found in the Operational Performance section for each OLCF resource. The scientific accomplishments of OLCF users are a strong indication of long-term operational success, with publications this year in such notable journals and publications as Nature, Nature Physics, Nature Plants, Physical Review X, Journal of the American Physical Society, Cell, Nano Letters, and Trends in Biotechnology. Crucial domain-specific discoveries facilitated by resources at the OLCF are described in the High Performance Computing Facility Operational Assessment 2019 Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OAR) Strategic Results section. For example, researchers used Summit to pinpoint and understand the production of proteins from genetic information, including mutations and the functional expression of disease (Section 8.2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

HEMP Transformer Defense Through Power Electronics

High altitude electromagnetic pulses and geo-magnetic disturbances have the potential to severely impact the electric power grid by damaging large power transformers and causing severe power quality issues. This impact comes as a result of a quasi-static bias induced on transmission lines by geomagnetically induced currents which saturate magnetic components in the electric power system. This paper introduces the concept of utilizing a h-bridge inverter on the neutral of a LPT to inject a DC bias equivalent voltage onto the neutral side of the transformer windings. This biasing floats the transformer windings, eliminating the effect of the DC current and keeping the transformer from saturating. Schematic diagrams will be presented, along with simulation model data using Typhoon and PLECS, and finally test results from a benchtop hardware test.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulations of satellite Doppler wind observations

This study will involve two objectives: (1) to develop, through computer simulations, optimal satellite-based sensor scanning techniques for direct measurement of tropospheric winds on the meso- and synoptic scales; and (2) to construct simulations of remotely measured wind fields for assessing impact of such fields on the diagnosis and prognosis of atmospheric phenomena through the use of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE). Using the LAWS Simulation Model (LSM), various global coverage scenarios have been investigated as part of an effort to define the optimal orbit, configuration and sampling strategies for observations of winds for use in global circulation models. Simulated data sets have been provided to GSFC, FSU and several LAWS team members. Particular emphasis has been on providing realistic cloud cover, cirrus backscatter, aerosol distribution and wind variance on scales less than 600 km. Progress is currently being made to incorporate other remote sensors (AIRS/AMSU, STIKSCAT) into the global OSSEs.

Emmitt, George D.↗

Estimating Subcanopy Soil Moisture with RADAR

The subcanopy soil moisture of a boreal old jack pine forest is estimated using polarimetric L- and P-band AIRSAR data. Model simulations have shown that for this stand, the principal scattering mechanism responsible for radar backscatter is the double-bounce mechanism between the tree trunks and the ground.

radar soil moisture vegetation non-linear estimati↗

Deriving Soil Moisture with the Combined L-Band Radar and Radiometer Measurements

In this study, we develop a combined active/passive technique to estimate surface soil moisture with the focus on the short vegetated surfaces. We first simulated a database for both active and passive signals under SMAP s sensor configurations using the radiative transfer model with a wide range of conditions for surface soil moisture, roughness and vegetation properties that we considered as the random orientated disks and cylinders. Using this database, we developed 1) the techniques to estimate surface backscattering and emission components and 2) the technique to estimate soil moisture with the estimated surface backscattering and emission components. We will demonstrate these techniques with the model simulated data and its validation with the airborne PALS image data from the soil moisture SGP 99 and SMEX 02 experiments.

Shi, Jiancheng↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 1: Analysis of Aerosols, Gases, and Wet Deposition Chemistry

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and adjoining East Coast of North America are of great importance for atmospheric research and have been extensively studied for several decades. This broad region exhibits complex meteorological features and a wide range of conditions associated with gas and particulate species from many sources regionally and other continents. As Part 1 of a 2‐part paper series, this work characterizes quantities associated with atmospheric chemistry, including gases, aerosols, and wet deposition, by analyzing available satellite observations, ground‐based data, model simulations, and reanalysis products. Part 2 provides insight into the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three‐dimensional cloud structure, properties, and precipitation over the WNAO domain. Key results include spatial and seasonal differences in composition along the North American East Coast and over the WNAO associated with varying sources of smoke and dust and meteorological drivers such as temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Spatial and seasonal variations of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ozone highlight different pathways towards the accumulation of these species in the troposphere. Spatial distributions of speciated aerosol optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol mass mixing ratios show a clear seasonal cycle highlighting the influence of different sources in addition to the impact of intercontinental transport. Analysis of long‐term climate model simulations of aerosol species and satellite observations of carbon monoxide confirm that there has been a significant decline in recent decades among anthropogenic constituents owing to regulatory activities.

ACTIVATE↗

In Situ Data Analysis Through Physics-informed Tensor Decompositions (LDRD Final Report)

We introduce a new low-dimensional model of high-dimensional numerical simulation data based on low-rank tensor decompositions. Our new model aims to minimize differences between the model data and simulation data as well as functions of the model data and functions of the simulation data. This novel approach to dimensionality reduction of simulation data provides a means of directly incorporating quantities of interests and invariants associated with conservation principles associated with the simulation data into the low-dimensional model, thus enabling more accurate analysis of the simulation without requiring access to the full set of high-dimensional data. Computational results of applying this approach to two standard low-rank tensor decompositions of data arising from simulation of combustion and plasma physics are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Finding Hidden Patterns in High Resolution Wind Flow Model Simulations

Wind flow data is critical in terms of investment decisions and policy making. High resolution data from wind flow model simulations serve as a supplement to the limited resource of original wind flow data collection. Given the large size of data, finding hidden patterns in wind flow model simulations are critical for reducing the dimensionality of the analysis. In this work, we first perform dimension reduction with two autoencoder models: the CNN-based autoencoder (CNN-AE) [1], and hierarchical autoencoder (HIER-AE) [2], and compare their performance with the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We then investigate the super-resolution of the wind flow data. By training a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with 300 epochs, we obtained a trained model with 2× resolution enhancement. We compare the results of GAN with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and GAN results show finer structure as expected in the data field images. Also, the kinetic energy spectra comparisons show that GAN outperforms CNN in terms of reproducing the physical properties for high wavenumbers and is critical for analysis where high-wavenumber kinetics play an important role.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interannual Variability in the Equatorial Stratosphere: Comparison of 2D Model Simulations with Satellite Constituent Data

Satellite observations from UARS and TOMS have provided unique data sets for studying seasonal and interannual stratospheric constituent variability during the 1990's. The corresponding meteorological variability is also well represented by the partly satellite-based UKMO assimilation winds and temperatures. In this study, we use the UKMO meteorological fields to derive zonal mean transport components (residual circulation, horizontal eddy diffusion) for each year, 1992-1998. These fields are then used in our GSFC two-dimensional chemistry and transport model to simulate the year to year changes in ozone and long lived tracers in the equatorial stratosphere due to interannual dynamical variability. The resulting model simulation of ozone and CH4 compares reasonably well with UARS data in reproducing a dominant QBO signal in the lower stratosphere, and a dominant semiannual signature in the upper stratosphere which appears to be modulated by the lower stratospheric QBO. The model also compares well with TOMS data in simulating the phase of the QBO in total ozone, although the model QBO amplitude is somewhat underestimated relative to TOMS. These comparisons illustrate that the general zonal mean transport characteristics in the equatorial stratosphere can be reasonably well simulated using an empirically-based residual circulation.

Fleming, Eric L.↗