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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Strain and Failure of a Knot in Polyethylene Using Molecular Dynamics with Machine-Learned Potentials

A neural network potential (NNP) has been developed by fitting to ab initio electronic structure data on hydrocarbons and is used to study failure of linear and knotted polyethylene (PE) chains. A linear PE chain must be highly strained before breaking as the stress is equally distributed across the chain. In contrast, the stress in a PE chain with a 31 or overhand knot, accumulates at the knot’s entrance/exit. We find the strain energy is greatest when the bond length and angle are strained simultaneously, and that the knot weakens the chain by increasing the variance of the C–C–C angle, thereby allowing rupture at lower bond strains. Here, we extend our analysis to both 51 and 52 knots and find that both break at the entrance/exit of a loop. Notably, molecular scale PE knots exhibit many of the same characteristics as knots in a macroscopic rope, with stick–slip phenomena upon tightening and similar points of failure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continual Learning for Production-Level Machine Learning in Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate in complex environments where data distribution can change dynamically, leading to data drifts that significantly challenge Machine Learning (ML) models. These non-stationary conditions often cause ML models to deteriorate in performance, making it difficult to maintain reliable predictions in operation. The primary sources of data drifts are changes in accelerator settings and changes in equipment performance which cannot be measured directly. To bridge this gap between ML development and long-term deployment in operational settings, we identify key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. We will provide a practical guide on selecting the appropriate method given resource constraints and desired stability plasticity trade offs. As a concrete example, we will present a real-world use case for anomaly detection to predict errant beams at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator, where continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance on drifting data streams. We will present practical challenges, lessons learned, and the results from the deployed ML model.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

LDBT instead of DBTL: combining machine learning and rapid cell-free testing

Synthetic biology is defined by Design-Build-Test-Learn cycles. Machine learning has yielded significant improvements in protein design; thus, we propose that “Learning” can precede “Design” to optimize engineering workflows. Additionally, shifting to cell-free platforms will further accelerate “Build” and “Test” capabilities by allowing the rapid expression of proteins and functional testing without the need for cellular transformation or isolation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Domain Knowledge on the Property Prediction of Specialized Machine Learning Models

Developing transferable machine learning models is trending in data-driven materials research. However, how to apply such models to a specific research domain remains unclear. Here, in this work, we choose high-entropy materials as a platform with a specialized data set containing 145,323 DFT-relaxed materials. This data set is used to explore the role of domain-specific knowledge in training effective models. Our tests with three representative graph neural network architectures indicate the model complexity has much smaller influence on performance than the data itself. Specifically, the consideration of low-energy atomic ordering, structures with diverse elemental coverage, and high-order interactions significantly influences the model performance. We also find that domain knowledge-driven sampling can greatly enhance unsupervised learning techniques. This research highlights that developing specialized data sets is more beneficial than further complicating deep learning architectures. Additionally, physics-inspired sampling algorithms are crucially needed for better machine learning models for a specific materials research domain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Annealing for Real-World Machine Learning Applications

Optimizing the training of a machine learning pipeline is important for reducing training costs and improving model performance. One such optimizing strategy is quantum annealing, which is an emerging computing paradigm that has shown potential in optimizing the training of a machine learning model. The implementation of a physical quantum annealer has been realized by D-Wave systems and is available to the research community for experiments. Recent experimental results on a variety of machine learning applications have shown interesting results especially under the conditions where the performance of classical machine learning techniques are limited such as limited training data and high dimensional features. This chapter explores the application of D-Wave’s quantum annealer for optimizing machine learning pipelines for real-world classification problems. We review the application domains on which a physical quantum annealer has been used to train machine learning classifiers. We discuss and analyze the experiments performed on the D-Wave quantum annealer for applications such as image recognition, remote sensing imagery, security, computational biology, biomedical sciences, and physics. We discuss the possible advantages and the problems for which quantum annealing is likely to be advantageous over classical computation.

Kumar nath, Rajdeep↗
DOE OSTI2025

Teacher-student training improves the accuracy and efficiency of machine learning interatomic potentials

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are revolutionizing the field of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Recent MLIPs have tended towards more complex architectures trained on larger datasets. The resulting increase in computational and memory costs may prohibit the application of these MLIPs to perform large-scale MD simulations. Herein, we present a teacher-student training framework in which the latent knowledge from the teacher (atomic energies) is used to augment the students' training. We show that the light-weight student MLIPs have faster MD speeds at a fraction of the memory footprint compared to the teacher models. Remarkably, the student models can even surpass the accuracy of the teachers, even though both are trained on the same quantum chemistry dataset. Our work highlights a practical method for MLIPs to reduce the resources required for large-scale MD simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications in Modern Power Systems

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.

power system applications, machine learning (ML), ↗
DOE OSTI2025

SpectraCodec: A Hilbert curve-based method for encoding metadata in mass spectra for machine learning applications (SpectraCodec) v1

Machine learning approaches to mass spectrometry (MS) data analysis require structured metadata for optimal performance. However, current MS file formats necessitate external metadata sources, creating integration challenges that impede analytical workflows. Here, we present a novel approach for encoding metadata directly within mzML files using one-hot encoding of ASCII characters mapped via Hilbert space-filling curves. This strategy embeds metadata in the first spectrum's m/z-intensity space, ensuring persistence with the primary data, eliminating the need for external metadata files, and maintaining compatibility with existing MS software. We demonstrate that the Hilbert curve mapping efficiently utilizes the two-dimensional spectral space while maintaining robust data recovery. This method offers a practical solution for machine learning applications in mass spectrometry by ensuring metadata and spectral data remain unified through all stages of analysis.

Bowen, Benjamin [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning for accuracy in density functional approximations

Machine learning techniques have found their way into computational chemistry as indispensable tools to accelerate atomistic simulations and materials design. In addition, machine learning approaches hold the potential to boost the predictive power of computationally efficient electronic structure methods, such as density functional theory, to chemical accuracy and to correct for fundamental errors in density functional approaches. In this paper, recent progress in applying machine learning to improve the accuracy of density functional and related approximations is reviewed. Promises and challenges in devising machine learning models transferable between different chemistries and materials classes are discussed with the help of examples applying promising models to systems far outside their training sets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning models for volumetric swelling in uranium nitride

Machine learning methods are applied to predict the volumetric swelling rate of the nuclear fuel uranium nitride (UN) over various temperatures, irradiation conditions, and power densities. Both kernel-based methods and symbolic regression models for UN swelling are developed and compared with multiple experimental datasets. We find that the UN pellet geometry and dimensions must be taken into account to accurately model swelling behavior. Strong agreement is observed between the developed machine learning models and the data. The predictive error generated by the machine learning models improves on empirical models taken from the literature. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which properties such as temperature, burnup, and power density, are most important in the swelling process. We find that machine learning can be used to quickly develop accurate swelling models for nuclear materials. In conclusion, the presented results illustrate the potential of machine learning to determine volumetric swelling in UN.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Accuracy of Machine Learning Forecasts

To improve the accuracy of forecasting in machine learning, we must investigate multiple machine learning models and see how accurately they can predict values after training. We used seven machine learning models to try and get more accurate predictions. The models that were used were ARIMA, SES, MLP, CART, LightGBM, and XGBoost. We used a processed dataset from a Terminal at LAX that had the number of people traveling through terminal X every hour in March from 2015-2019. We trained our models with the dates March 6 - March 19 to predict the value for March 20th and the hours 6:00 am to 6:00 pm since those are the most popular traveling hours. By using the different models, we had varying results of accuracy when estimating the amount of people traveling through terminal X on March 20th. We know that machine learning models are helpful for forecasting and by seeing how accurately these models can predict, we can see how forecasting can be helpful for other issues. Using these methods, airports can use forecasting to predict the amount of people coming in and out and can use these predictions to prepare their resource management, operational efficiency, and overall passenger experience.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low responsiveness of machine learning models to critical or deteriorating health conditions

Machine learning (ML) based mortality prediction models can be immensely useful in intensive care units. Such a model should generate warnings to alert physicians when a patient’s condition rapidly deteriorates, or their vitals are in highly abnormal ranges. Before clinical deployment, it is important to comprehensively assess a model’s ability to recognize critical patient conditions. We develop multiple medical ML testing approaches, including a gradient ascent method and neural activation map. We systematically assess these machine learning models’ ability to respond to serious medical conditions using additional test cases, some of which are time series. Guided by medical doctors, our evaluation involves multiple machine learning models, resampling techniques, and four datasets for two clinical prediction tasks. We identify serious deficiencies in the models’ responsiveness, with the models being unable to recognize severely impaired medical conditions or rapidly deteriorating health. For in-hospital mortality prediction, the models tested using our synthesized cases fail to recognize 66% of the injuries. In some instances, the models fail to generate adequate mortality risk scores for all test cases. Our study identifies similar kinds of deficiencies in the responsiveness of 5-year breast and lung cancer prediction models. Using generated test cases, we find that statistical machine-learning models trained solely from patient data are grossly insufficient and have many dangerous blind spots. Most of the ML models tested fail to respond adequately to critically ill patients. How to incorporate medical knowledge into clinical machine learning models is an important future research direction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Efficient Checkpointing System for Large Machine Learning Model Training

As machine learning models increase in size and complexity rapidly, the cost of checkpointing in ML training became a bottleneck in storage and performance (time). For example, the latest GPT-4 model has massive parameters at the scale of 1.76 trillion. It is highly time and storage consuming to frequently writes the model to checkpoints with more than 1 trillion floating point values to storage. This work aims to understand and attempt to mitigate this problem. First, we characterize the checkpointing interface in a collection of representative large machine learning/language models with respect to storage consumption and performance overhead. Second, we propose the two optimizations: i) A periodic cleaning strategy that periodically cleans up outdated checkpoints to reduce the storage burden; ii) A data staging optimization that coordinates checkpoints between local and shared file systems for performance improvement.

machine learning, artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗