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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

An Analysis of Post Attack Impacts and Effects of Learning Parameters on Vulnerability Assessment of Power Grid

Due to the increasing number of heterogeneous devices connected to electric power grid, the attack surface increases the threat actors. Game theory and machine learning are being used to study the power system failures caused by external manipulation. Most of existing works in the literature focus on one-shot process of attacks and fail to show the dynamic evolution of the defense strategy. In this paper, we focus on an adversarial multistage sequential game between the adversaries of the smart electric power transmission and distribution system. We study the impact of exploration rate and convergence of the attack strategies (sequences of action that creates large scale blackout based on the system capacity) based on the reinforcement learning approach. We also illustrate how the learned attack actions disrupt the normal operation of the grid by creating transmission line outages, bus voltage violations, and generation loss. This simulation studies are conducted on IEEE 9 and 39 bus systems. The results show the improvement of the defense strategy through the learning process. The results also prove the feasibility of the learned attack actions by replicating the disturbances created in simulated power system.

attack impacts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal carbon storage reservoir management through deep reinforcement learning

Model-based optimization plays a central role in energy system design and management. The complexity and high-dimensionality of many process-level models, especially those used for geosystem energy exploration and utilization, often lead to formidable computational costs when the dimension of decision space is also large. This work adopts elements of recently advanced deep learning techniques to solve a sequential decision-making problem in applied geosystem management. Specifically, a deep reinforcement learning framework was formed for optimal multiperiod planning, in which a deep Q-learning network (DQN) agent was trained to maximize rewards by learning from high-dimensional inputs and from exploitation of its past experiences. To expedite computation, deep multitask learning was used to approximate high-dimensional, multistate transition functions. Both DQN and deep multitask learning are pattern based. As a demonstration, the framework was applied to optimal carbon sequestration reservoir planning using two different types of management strategies: monitoring only and brine extraction. Both strategies are designed to mitigate potential risks due to pressure buildup. Results show that the DQN agent can identify the optimal policies to maximize the reward for given risk and cost constraints. Finally, experiments also show that knowledge the agent gained from interacting with one environment is largely preserved when deploying the same agent in other similar environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variational actor-critic algorithms,

We introduce a class of variational actor-critic algorithms based on a variational formulation over both the value function and the policy. The objective function of the variational formulation consists of two parts: one for maximizing the value function and the other for minimizing the Bellman residual. Besides the vanilla gradient descent with both the value function and the policy updates, we propose two variants, the clipping method and the flipping method, in order to speed up the convergence. We also prove that, when the prefactor of the Bellman residual is sufficiently large, the fixed point of the algorithm is close to the optimal policy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Cyber Attack Defense with DERs

The use of smart inverter capabilities of distributed energy resources (DERs) enhances the grid reliability but in the meanwhile exhibits more vulnerabilities to cyber-attacks. This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based defense approach. The defense problem is reformulated as a Markov decision making process to control DERs and minimizing load shedding to address the voltage violations caused by cyber-attacks. The original soft actor-critic (SAC) method for continuous actions has been extended to handle discrete and continuous actions for controlling DERs' setpoints and loadshedding scenarios. Numerical comparison results with other control approaches, such as Volt-VAR and Volt-Watt on the modified IEEE 33-node, show that the proposed method can achieve better voltage regulation and have less power losses in the presence of cyber-attacks.

active distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Distribution System Cyber Attack Defense With High Penetration of DERs

With grid modernization, smart inverters are increasingly used to execute advanced controls for distribution network reliability. However, this also increases the cyber-attack space. Here this paper focuses on the defense approaches to restore the system to normal operation circumstances in the presence of cyber-attacks. A unique deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method is developed to minimize voltage violations and reduce power losses for impacted feeders. The defense problem is reformulated as a Markov decision-making process to dynamically control DERs while minimizing load shedding. This is achieved via an improved soft actor-critic (SAC)-based DRL algorithm, which can govern DER set points and load-shedding scenarios in discrete and continuous modes via the auto-tune entropy and Gaussian policy features. Numerical comparison results on the modified IEEE 123-node system with other control approaches, such as Volt-VAR (VV), Volt-Watt (VW), and model predictive control (MPC) show that the proposed method can eliminate voltage violations and provide feasible control actions that perform complete mitigation of cyber-threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reinforcement learning for adaptive maintenance policy optimization under imperfect knowledge of the system degradation model and partial observability of system states

Maintenance policy optimization usually is faced with challenges that arise from an imperfect knowledge of system degradation models and from the partial observability of system degradation states. Here, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning method to address these two challenges for a class of maintenance problems with Markov degradation processes. The reinforcement learning approach consists of a learning component and a planning component. Using sequentially collected observations, at each step of decision-making the learning component improves the knowledge of system degradation in terms of the probability distributions of the transition rates based on sequential Bayesian inference. Using the updated transition rates, at each step of decision-making the maintenance policy optimization problem is then formulated as a partially observable Markov decision problem, and the planning component computes the optimal maintenance policy that maximizes the expected cumulative reward. The proposed method is illustrated using a numerical example with repair and inspection maintenance actions. The result shows that as more observations are collected, the learning component progressively learns the true system degradation process, and the planning component adjusts the optimal maintenance policy accordingly as well, which leads to increased reward.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate that considering inter-event dependencies in recovery modeling can lead to lesser-predicted resilience, thereby affecting resilience-based decision-making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Unknot

We introduce natural language processing into the study of knot theory, as made natural by the braid word representation of knots. We study the UNKNOT problem of determining whether or not a given knot is the unknot. After describing an algorithm to randomly generate N-crossing braids and their knot closures and discussing the induced prior on the distribution of knots, we apply binary classification to the UNKNOT decision problem. We find that the Reformer and shared-QK Transformer network architectures outperform fully-connected networks, though all perform at 95% accuracy. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that accuracy increases with the length of the braid word, and that the networks learn a direct correlation between the confidence of their predictions and the degree of the Jones polynomial. Finally, we utilize reinforcement learning (RL) to find sequences of Markov moves and braid relations that simplify knots and can identify unknots by explicitly giving the sequence of unknotting actions. Trust region policy optimization (TRPO) performs consistently well, reducing 80% of the unknots with up to 96 crossings we tested to the empty braid word, and thoroughly outperformed other RL algorithms and random walkers. Studying these actions, we find that braid relations are more useful in simplifying to the unknot than one of the Markov moves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗