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DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Statistically Resolved Planetary Boundary Layer Height Diurnal Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Data

The Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) significantly impacts weather, climate, and air quality. Understanding the global diurnal variation of the PBLH is particularly challenging due to the necessity of extensive observations and suitable retrieval algorithms that can adapt to diverse thermodynamic and dynamic conditions. This study utilized data from the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) to analyze the diurnal variation of PBLH in both continental and marine regions. By leveraging CATS data and a modified version of the Different Thermo-Dynamics Stability (DTDS) algorithm, along with machine learning denoising, the study determined the diurnal variation of the PBLH in continental mid-latitude and marine regions. The CATS DTDS-PBLH closely matches ground-based lidar and radiosonde measurements at the continental sites, with correlation coefficients above 0.6 and well-aligned diurnal variability, although slightly overestimated at nighttime. In contrast, PBLH at the marine site was consistently overestimated due to the viewing geometry of CATS and complex cloud structures. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating meteorological data with lidar signals for accurate and robust PBLH estimations, which are essential for effective boundary layer assessment from satellite observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Significantly Promoting the Thermal Conductivity and Machinability of Negative Thermal Expansion Alloy via In Situ Precipitation of Copper Networks

Rapid advancements in electronic devices yield an urgent demand for high-performance electronic packaging materials with high thermal conductivity, low thermal expansion, and great mechanical properties. However, it is a great challenge for current design philosophies to fulfill all the requirements simultaneously. Here, an effective strategy is proposed for significantly promoting the thermal conductivity and machinability of negative thermal expansion alloy (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 through eutectic precipitation of copper networks. The eutectic dual-phase alloy exhibits an isotropic chips-matched thermal expansion coefficient and a thermal conductivity enhancement exceeding 200% compared with (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , along with an ultimate compressive strength of 550 MPa. The addition of copper reorganizes the composition of (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , which smooths the magnetic transition and shifts it toward higher temperature, resulting in linear low thermal expansion in a wide temperature range. The highly fine eutectic copper lamellae construct high thermal conductivity networks within (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , serving as highways for heat transfer electrons and phonons. The in situ forming of eutectic copper lamellae also facilitates the mechanical properties by enhancing interfacial bonding and bearing additional stress after yielding of (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 . This work provides a novel strategy for promoting thermal conductivity and mechanical properties of negative thermal expansion alloys via eutectic precipitation of copper networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the Cu oxidation state from EELS and XAS spectra using supervised machine learning

Abstract Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) provide detailed information about bonding, distributions and locations of atoms, and their coordination numbers and oxidation states. However, analysis of XAS/EELS data often relies on matching an unknown experimental sample to a series of simulated or experimental standard samples. This limits analysis throughput and the ability to extract quantitative information from a sample. In this work, we have trained a random forest model capable of predicting the oxidation state of copper based on its L-edge spectrum. Our model attains an R 2 score of 0.85 and a root mean square error of 0.24 on simulated data. It has also successfully predicted experimental L-edge EELS spectra taken in this work and XAS spectra extracted from the literature. We further demonstrate the utility of this model by predicting simulated and experimental spectra of mixed valence samples generated by this work. This model can be integrated into a real-time EELS/XAS analysis pipeline on mixtures of copper-containing materials of unknown composition and oxidation state. By expanding the training data, this methodology can be extended to data-driven spectral analysis of a broad range of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

GPU-enabled extreme-scale turbulence simulations: Fourier pseudo-spectral algorithms at the exascale using OpenMP offloading

Fourier pseudo-spectral methods for nonlinear partial differential equations are of wide interest in many areas of advanced computational science, including direct numerical simulation of three-dimensional (3-D) turbulence governed by the Navier-Stokes equations in fluid dynamics. This paper presents a new capability for simulating turbulence at a new record resolution up to 35 trillion grid points, on the world's first exascale computer, Frontier, comprising AMD MI250x GPUs with HPE's Slingshot interconnect and operated by the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). Key programming strategies designed to take maximum advantage of the machine architecture involve performing almost all computations on the GPU which has the same memory capacity as the CPU, performing all-to-all communication among sets of parallel processes directly on the GPU, and targeting GPUs efficiently using OpenMP offloading for intensive number-crunching including 1-D Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT) performed using AMD ROCm library calls. With 99% of computing power on Frontier being on the GPU, leaving the CPU idle leads to a net performance gain via avoiding the overhead of data movement between host and device except when needed for some I/O purposes. Memory footprint including the size of communication buffers for MPI_ALLTOALL is managed carefully to maximize the largest problem size possible for a given node count. Detailed performance data including separate contributions from different categories of operations to the elapsed wall time per step are reported for five grid resolutions, from 2048 3 on a single node to 32768 3 on 4096 or 8192 nodes out of 9408 on the system. Both 1D and 2D domain decompositions which divide a 3D periodic domain into slabs and pencils respectively are implemented. The present code suite (labeled by the acronym GESTS, GPUs for Extreme Scale Turbulence Simulations) achieves a figure of merit (in grid points per second) exceeding goals set in the Center for Accelerated Application Readiness (CAAR) program for Frontier. The performance attained is highly favorable in both weak scaling and strong scaling, with notable departures only for 2048 3 where communication is entirely intra-node, and for 32768 3 , where a challenge due to small message sizes does arise. Communication performance is addressed further using a lightweight test code that performs all-to-all communication in a manner matching the full turbulence simulation code. Performance at large problem sizes is affected by both small message size due to high node counts as well as dragonfly network topology features on the machine, but is consistent with official expectations of sustained performance on Frontier. Overall, although not perfect, the scalability achieved at the extreme problem size of 32768 3 (and up to 8192 nodes — which corresponds to hardware rated at just under 1 exaflop/sec of theoretical peak computational performance) is arguably better than the scalability observed using prior state-of-the-art algorithms on Frontier's predecessor machine (Summit) at OLCF. New science results for the study of intermittency in turbulence enabled by this code and its extensions are to be reported separately in the near future.

3D fast Fourier transform↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

Christensen, Matthew [Pacific Northwest National L↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distinguishing Orbiting and Infalling Dark Matter Particles with Machine Learning

Dark matter halos are typically defined as spheres that enclose some overdensity, but these sharp, somewhat arbitrary boundaries introduce nonphysical artifacts such as backsplash halos, pseudo-volution, and an incomplete accounting of halo mass. A more physically motivated alternative is to define halos as the collection of particles that are physically orbiting within their potential well. However, existing methods to classify particles as orbiting or infalling suffer from trade-offs between accuracy, computational cost, and generalizability across cosmologies. We present an efficient, yet accurate, supervised machine learning approach using decision trees. The classification is based on only the particle radii and velocities at two epochs. Compared to detailed analysis of particle trajectories, we find that our model matches the classification of 97% of particles. Consequently, we are able to quickly and accurately reproduce the density profiles of the orbiting and infalling components out to many virial radii. We demonstrate that our model generalizes to a significantly different cosmology that lies outside the training data set. We make publicly available both our final model and the code to train similar models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stress intensity factor models using mechanics-guided decomposition and symbolic regression

The finite element method can be used to compute accurate stress intensity factors (SIFs) for cracks with complex geometries and boundary conditions. In contrast, handbook solutions act as surrogate SIF models that provide significantly faster evaluation times. However, the development of conventional surrogate SIF models relies on manual development based on low-order parameterizations. This limits surrogate model accuracy and generalizability. Here, in this paper, we develop a framework for the automated development of mechanics-guided handbook SIF solutions by using interpretable machine learning via genetic programming for symbolic regression (GPSR). Formalizing the mechanics-based approach of Raju and Newman, SIF training data is decomposed into multiple subsets. This decomposition enables parallel GPSR model development of subfunctions, each of which accounts for specific geometrical corrections with respect to a known analytical model. Using this mechanics-based approach with GPSR allows for equations to be learned with improved accuracy and reduced complexity relative to the Raju Newman equations while maintaining the inherent interpretability of mathematical expressions. In this paper, we present equations that match the complexity of the Raju Newman equations while having reduced error, as well as equations with similar errors and reduced complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification for misspecified machine learned interatomic potentials

The use of high-dimensional regression techniques from machine learning has significantly improved the quantitative accuracy of interatomic potentials. Atomic simulations can now plausibly target quantitative predictions in a variety of settings, which has brought renewed interest in robust means to quantify uncertainties. In many practical settings where model complexity is constrained (e.g., due to performance considerations), misspecification — the inability of any one choice of model parameters to exactly match all training data — is a key contributor to errors that is often disregarded. Here, we employ a recent misspecification-aware regression technique to quantify parameter uncertainties, which is then propagated to a broad range of phase and defect properties in tungsten. The propagation is performed through both brute-force resampling and implicit Taylor expansion. The propagated misspecification uncertainties robustly quantify and bound errors on a broad range of material properties. We demonstrate application to recent foundational machine learning interatomic potentials, accurately predicting and bounding errors in MACE-MPA-0 energy predictions across the diverse materials project database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

VoroClust

SAND2025-11465O VoroClust, also known as Voronoi Clustering, is a fast, density-based unsupervised clustering algorithm applicable to high-resolution and high-dimensional data. It operates as quickly as distance-based clustering methods while effectively capturing complex regional geometries, matching the performance of current density-based methods. VoroClust employs a data-centered sphere cover to reduce computational demands while preserving data topology. It propagates clusters outward from local density peaks. Although supervised machine learning is powerful for applications like image classification and segmentation, it requires comprehensive, consistent datasets, which many applications lack. Unsupervised clustering algorithms analyze the structure of each dataset rather than relying on similarities with other examples, making them well-suited for practical applications with insufficient or inappropriate data for supervised learning. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Ebeida, Mohamed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Li↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of new and existing methods for time-domain simulations of turbulence and loads

We seek to obtain a second-by-second match between the simulated and measured structural loads of a utility-scale wind turbine. To obtain the one-to-one load simulations, we start with the furthest upstream component of the modeling chain: the turbulent inflow. We consider new and existing methods to generate constrained-turbulence flow fields. The new method is based on large-eddy simulations (LES) and machine learning (ML). The existing methods include Kaimal-based TurbSim and the superstatistical wind field model. The inflow measurements used to constrain these simulations are obtained with a nacelle-mounted scanning lidar. We compare the flow fields for the different inflow simulation approaches and validate their associated load predictions against measurements collected in the Rotor Aero-dynamics, Aeroelastics, and Wake (RAAW) field campaign. We find that the rotor-position control developed for this study is key in enabling the time match between measurements and simulations. When this control approach is used, the load simulation performance tracks with the inflow simulation fidelity, with LES+ML yielding errors ≤ 4% for the damage-equivalent loads of flapwise bending moment, and tower fore-aft bending moments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

ReaxFF Parameter Set for Boron Clusters and Icosahedral Boron Crystals: Comparison with Density Functional Theory and Machine-Learning Potentials

Icosahedral boron materials, which include regular icosahedra of 12 boron atoms have gained increasing attention due to their potential applications as superhard materials, semiconductors, and energy storage media. However, the synthesis of high quality crystals of these materials has been a major barrier to the development of these applications. To enable computational prediction of synthesis conditions yielding high-quality icosahedral boron crystals, herein we tested and refined a set of ReaxFF parameters for the nucleation and growth of such crystals. We focused on matching the relative energies of small boron clusters obtained by density functional theory since such small clusters and similar motifs are likely present in crystal nuclei and at the interface of growing crystals. Using a training set of B 80 clusters, including a low-energy core–shell structure containing a B 12 icosahedron core and a high-energy single-shell structure produced in preliminary ReaxFF simulations, the ReaxFF parameter set was refined to better reproduce energies calculated by density functional theory (DFT). Among existing ReaxFF parameter sets and the machine-learning interatomic potentials MACE-MP-0, MACE-MP-0b3, MACE-MPA-0, PFP v7.0.0, and SevenNet-MF-ompa, only our new parameter set and PFP v7.0.0 correctly ranked these B 80 clusters. This refinement led to improved agreement with DFT for a test set of 58 clusters consisting of 8–103 boron atoms. Furthermore, our refined parameter set yielded greater local icosahedral structure than the previously existing ReaxFF parameter set for larger scale simulations of crystallization from supercooled liquid boron. Additionally, simulations of solid boron in contact with molten nickel using our refined ReaxFF parameters yielded a boron solubility value that agrees moderately well with experimental expectations, while the previous boron parameters gave a value that was much too low.

boron↗

DOE OSTI2025

One Million Open-source Cislunar Orbits

Cislunar space, encompassing the region from geosynchronous orbit to beyond the Moon, is poised to become a cornerstone for future exploration, scientific discovery, and national security. Missions in this region, spanning durations from weeks to decades, require robust infrastructure and reliable transit capabilities. The complex gravitational influences of the Moon, Sun, and planets, along with thermal radiation from Earth and the Sun, lead to significant trajectory deviations, resulting in kilometer-scale errors within days. Leveraging the high-performance computing resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), we have simulated one million high-fidelity cislunar trajectories, now publicly available via LLNL’s Green Data Oasis and the Unified Data Library. Generated using the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package, these trajectories match the precision of commercial tools such as AGI’s Systems Tool Kit and NASA’s General Mission Analysis Tool. This data set is a valuable resource for reference, statistical analysis of cislunar orbit populations, and training machine learning models for rapid orbit classification with minimal observational input. Preliminary analysis reveals stable bands in Keplerian element space, particularly around five geosynchronous radii across a range of inclinations and eccentricities. Beyond this threshold, the Moon’s influence disrupts most unassisted orbits, though co-orbiting L4/L5 Lunar Trojans persist throughout the six-year simulation.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards Automated Assessment of Vulnerability Exposures in Security Operations

Current approaches for risk analysis of software vulnerabilities using manual assessment and numeric scoring do not complete fast enough to keep pace with the maintenance work rate to patch and mitigate the vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new approach to modeling software vulnerability risk in the context of the network environment and firewall configuration. In the approach, vulnerability features are automatically matched up with networking, target asset, and adversary features to determine whether adversaries can exploit a vulnerability. The ability of adversaries to reach a vulnerability is modeled by automatically identifying the network services associated with vulnerabilities through a pipeline of machine learning and natural language processing and automatically analyzing network reachability. Our results show that the pipeline can identify network services accurately. We also find that only a small number of vulnerabilities pose real risks to a system. However, if left unmitigated, adversarial reach to vulnerabilities may extend to nullify the effect of firewall countermeasures.

Huff, Philip↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automatic Image Point Matching

Sparse Image Point Matching (SIPM) is a foundational technology for photo triangulation, structure from motion (SfM), Simultaneous Location and Mapping (SLAM), and data fusion. The goal of the matching is to automatically generate sets of image coordinates that identify the same feature across images. Ideally, the process should be robust to lighting, scale, perspective, and modality changes. The scope of the image matching topic in the field of remote sensing (RS) is enormous because of the variety of collection platforms, modalities, sensor types, applications, and subjects. In this work, we report the history of and assess the state of the art of visible-spectrum (panchromatic and color) image matching of the Earth’s surface. Work specific to large-format images (LFI) (e.g., metric aerial cameras and Earth-observing satellites) will be highlighted. However, the state of the art in this century will mostly be traced through machine vision research and benchmarks because research specific to LFI is rare.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fast jet tagging with MLP-Mixers on FPGAs

We explore the innovative use of MLP-Mixer models for real-time jet tagging and establish their feasibility on resource-constrained hardware like FPGAs. MLP-Mixers excel in processing sequences of jet constituents, achieving state-of-the-art performance on datasets mimicking Large Hadron Collider conditions. By using advanced optimization techniques such as High-Granularity Quantization and Distributed Arithmetic, we achieve unprecedented efficiency. These models match or surpass the accuracy of previous architectures, reduce hardware resource usage by up to 97%, double the throughput, and half the latency. Additionally, non-permutation-invariant architectures enable smart feature prioritization and efficient FPGA deployment, setting a new benchmark for machine learning in real-time data processing at particle colliders.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging machine learning to enhance aerosol classification using Single-Particle Mass Spectrometry

Advancing automated classification of atmospheric aerosols from Single-Particle Mass Spectrometry (SPMS) data remains challenging due to overlapping ion signatures, compositional diversity, and limited labeled data. This study evaluates supervised and semi-supervised learning frameworks to enhance aerosol identification by jointly leveraging labeled and unlabeled spectra. Four models were compared: a supervised Support Vector Machine (SVM), a self-training SVM, a stacked autoencoder classifier, and a stacked autoencoder trained using a temporal-ensembling Mean Teacher approach. All models achieved high and stable accuracies (90.0 %–91.1 %), surpassing previous results on the same dataset (87 %) and matching the performance of state-of-the-art deep learning methods. Despite small global metric differences (≤ 1 %), semi-supervised variants yielded up to 5 %–10 % improvements for compositionally rare particle types – such as soot (0.77 % of spectra, F1-score: 0.93–0.97) and hazelnut pollen (0.98 % of spectra, F1-score: 0.97–1.00) – equating to roughly ∼ 187 additional correctly classified spectra. These gains are scientifically significant, as such rare particles exert disproportionate influence on radiative absorption and ice nucleation processes; their improved detection reduces modeled uncertainties in aerosol absorption optical depth and mixed-phase cloud ice nucleation rates. The models' residual misclassifications (≈ 9 %) largely arise from true spectral overlap among chemically adjacent species (e.g., Na- vs. K-feldspar, coated vs. uncoated feldspars), reflecting physical compositional continuity rather than algorithmic error. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that leveraging unlabeled data to learn robust spectral representations and refine classification enhances both fidelity and interpretability, bridging data-driven analysis with aerosol–climate process understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗