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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2004

An Evaluation of the Accuracy of Meteor Shower Forecasts

Brought into being by the recent Leonid meteor storms, meteor shower forecasts are now regarded by many spacecraft projects as necessary inputs into the planning of spacecraft operations. We compare the shower forecasts made by various researchers over the past six years to actual shower observations in an attempt to create an overall picture of forecast accuracy, specifically focusing on the three aspects most important to space vehicles: 1) the time of shower maximum, 2) the half-width (duration), and 3) the maximum Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR). It will be noted that, while the times of maxima are generally predicted to within several minutes, the peak ZHRs are often overestimated and shower half-widths are frequently not even calculated. The difficulties involved in converting shower ZHRs into the meteoroid fluxes needed to assess spacecraft risk are also discussed.

Cooke, W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Meteor Shower Forecast Improvements from a Survey of All-Sky Network Observations

Meteoroid impacts are capable of damaging spacecraft and potentially ending missions. In order to help spacecraft programs mitigate these risks, NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) monitors and predicts meteoroid activity. Temporal variations in near-Earth space are described by the MEO's annual meteor shower forecast, which is based on both past shower activity and model predictions. The MEO and the University of Western Ontario operate sister networks of all-sky meteor cameras. These networks have been in operation for more than 7 years and have computed more than 20,000 meteor orbits. Using these data, we conduct a survey of meteor shower activity in the "fireball" size regime using DBSCAN. For each shower detected in our survey, we compute the date of peak activity and characterize the growth and decay of the shower's activity before and after the peak. These parameters are then incorporated into the annual forecast for an improved treatment of annual activity.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Martian Atmospheric Methane Plumes from Meteor Shower Infall: A Hypothesis

Methane plumes in the martian atmosphere have been detected using Earth-based spectroscopy, the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer on the ESA Mars Express mission, and the NASA Mars Science Laboratory. The methane's origin remains a mystery, with proposed sources including volcanism, exogenous sources like impacts and interplanetary dust, aqueous alteration of olivine in the presence of carbonaceous material, release from ancient deposits of methane clathrates, and/or biological activity. To date, none of these phenomena have been found to reliably correlate with the detection of methane plumes. An additional source exists, however: meteor showers could generate martian methane via UV pyrolysis of carbon-rich infall material. We find a correlation between the dates of Mars/cometary orbit encounters and detections of methane on Mars. We hypothesize that cometary debris falls onto Mars during these interactions, depositing freshly disaggregated meteor shower material in a regional concentration. The material generates methane via UV photolysis, resulting in a localized "plume" of short-lived methane.

Fries, M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Search for Meteor Shower Signatures in the LDEF IDE Data

For 346 days after the deployment of the LDEF satellite on April 7, 1984, the tape recorder belonging to the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (DE) stored information on over 15,000 impacts made by submicron and larger-size particles on its metal oxide silicon (MOS) detectors. These detectors were mounted on trays facing in six orthogonal directions - LDEF ram and trailing edge, the poles of the LDEF orbit (north and south), and radially inward (towards the Earth) and outward (towards space). The 13.1 second time resolution provided by the IDE electronics, combined with the high sensitivity of the MOS detectors and large collecting area (approximately 1 sq.m) of the experiment, conclusively showed that the small particle environment at the LDEF altitude of 480 km was highly time-variable, with particle fluxes spanning over four orders of magnitude. A large number of the 15,000 impacts recorded by IDE occurred in groups, which were of two types - the spikes, single, isolated events of high intensity and the multiple orbit event sequences (MOES), which were series of events separated in time by integer multiples of the LDEF orbital period. Even though the spikes were generally more intense, the MOES could be quite long-lived, some lasting for many days. A previous paper by Cooke et al. attributed the MOES to impacts by man-made debris particles in orbits intersecting that of LDEF. The 20 day longevity of one of these events - termed the May Swarm - led to the suggestion that the debris particles must be con- stantly replenished by their source, as the orbits of micron sized particles will rapidly decay under the influence of radiation pressure and other non-gravitational forces, entering Earth's atmosphere after only a few revolutions. However, the date of onset of the May Swarm (May 22) and the long duration of this event may indicate a possible correlation with the annual Arietid meteor shower, which peaks around June 8. As this seemed to hold the promise of a less artificial explanation than a satellite or rocket body continuously dribbling debris, it was decided to take a fresh look at parts of the IDE data set in an attempt to detect meteor showers within the impact record.

Cooke, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Characteristics of Fe Ablation Trials Observed During the 1998 Leonid Meteor Shower

Eighteen Fe ablation trails were observed during the 17/18 Nov 1998 Leonid meteor shower with an airborne Fe lidar aboard the National Simulation Facility/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF/NCAR) Electra aircraft over Okinawa. The average altitude of the 18 trails from the high velocity (72 km/s) Leonid meteors, 95.67 +/- 0.93 km, is approximately 6.7 km higher than previously observed for slower (approx. 30 km/s) sporadic meteors. This height difference is consistent with the assumption that meteors ablate when the kinetic energy imparted to the atmosphere reaches a critical threshold. The average age of the Fe trails, determined by a diffusion model, is 10.1 min. The youngest ages were observed below 92 km and above 98 km where chemistry and diffusion dominate, respectively. The average abundance of the trails is ten percent of the abundance of the background Fe layer. Observations suggest that the 1998 Leonid shower did not have a significant impact on the abundance of the background Fe layer.

Chu, Xin-Zhao↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hazardous Meteor Showers and their Fluxes

NASA's meteoroid environment office generates annual forecasts of meteor shower activity. This presentation reviews several recent and current efforts to improve these forecasts by testing the significance of the included showers, validating their mass distributions using observations from independent networks, and examining the relationship between meteoroid mass and peak brightness.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS1987

Monte Carlo modeling and meteor showers

Prediction of short lived increases in the cosmic dust influx, the concentration in lower thermosphere of atoms and ions of meteor origin and the determination of the frequency of micrometeor impacts on spacecraft are all of scientific and practical interest and all require adequate models of meteor showers at an early stage of their existence. A Monte Carlo model of meteor matter ejection from a parent body at any point of space was worked out by other researchers. This scheme is described. According to the scheme, the formation of ten well known meteor streams was simulated and the possibility of genetic affinity of each of them with the most probable parent comet was analyzed. Some of the results are presented.

Kulikova, N. V.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The 2020 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). Typical activity levels are expected for nearly all showers in 2020; only the Geminids, which are gradually increasing in strength over time, are expected to be stronger than in previous years. No meteor storms or outbursts are predicted for 2020.

Moorhead, Althea↗
NASA NTRS2014

The 2014 May Camelopardalid Meteor Shower

On May 24, 2014 Earth will encounter multiple streams of debris laid down by Comet 209P LINEAR. This will likely produce a new meteor shower, never before seen. Rates predicted to be from 100 to 1000 meteors per hour between 2 and 4 AM EDT, so we are dealing with a meteor outburst, potentially a storm. Peak rate of ~200 per hour best current estimate. Difficult to calibrate models due to lack of past observations. Models indicate mm size particles in stream, so potential risk to Earth orbiting spacecraft.

Cooke, Bill↗
NASA NTRS2020

The 2021 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). Most major showers are expected to exhibit typical activity, but the Andromedids, Aurigids, and “Finlayids” (a possible new shower originating from comet 15P/Finlay) may produce outbursts.

Althea Valkyrie Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS2021

The 2022 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). The annual showers are expected to display typical activity, with lower than usual activity from the Perseids. Some modelers report possible outbursts of the tau Herculid and Leonid showers in 2022, but there is no consensus on the strength of these outbursts.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS2021

The 2022 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for the Lunar Surface

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity on the lunar surface. While the predictions in this document are for the surface, spacecraft orbiting the Moon at low altitudes will encounter meteoroids at similar rates. The annual showers are expected to display typical activity, with lower than usual activity from the Perseids. Some modelers report possible outbursts of the tau Herculid and Leonid showers in 2022, but there is no consensus on the strength of these outbursts.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS2022

The 2023 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). Most annual showers are expected to display typical activity, but the eta Aquariids (ETA) are expected to display more than double their typical activity level.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS2023

The 2024 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). Most annual showers are expected to display typical activity, but the eta Aquariids (ETA) are once again expected to exhibit more than double their typical activity level.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS2020

The 2021 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for the Lunar South Pole

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity at the lunar south pole. Most major showers are expected to exhibit typical activity, but the "Finlayids'' (a possible new shower originating from comet 15P/Finlay) may produce an outburst. The Andromedid and Aurigid showers may also outburst in 2021, but these showers are not visible from the lunar south pole.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Examination of LADEE UVS Spectral Variability Associated with the Geminid Meteor Shower

The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) was an orbital lunar science mission designed to address the goals of the 2003 National Research Council decadal survey, the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group Roadmap, and the “Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon” (SCEM) report, and has been recommended for execution by the 2011 Planetary Missions Decadal Survey. The LADEE mission goal was to determine the composition of the lunar atmosphere and investigate the processes that control its distribution and variability, including sources, sinks, and surface interactions. LADEE monitored variations in known gasses, such as sodium, potassium, argon and helium, and searched for other, as-yet-undetected gasses of both lunar and extralunar origin. LADEE also examined whether dust is present in the lunar exosphere, and revealed the processes that contribute to its sources and variability. LADEE launched September 6, 2013, entered lunar orbit on October 6, 2013 and operated until April 17, 2014. Examined here are spectral variability at around the time of the Geminid meteor shower (at around December 13-14, 2014). UVS made standard limb observations at the Sunrise and Sunset terminators, as well as observation looking anti-sun on the dark side of the moon (the so called “Sodium-Tail” observation type). The before, during and after spectra are compared to look for variability in line emissions.

Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVS)↗
NASA NTRS2000

Stratospheric Sampling and In Situ Atmospheric Chemical Element Analysis During Meteor Showers: A Resource Study

Resources studies for asteroidal mining evaluation have depended historically on remote sensing analysis for chemical elements. During the November 1998 Leonids meteor shower, a stratospheric balloon and various low-density capture media were used to sample fragments from Comet Tempel-Tuttle debris during a peak Earth crossing. The analysis not only demonstrates how potential sampling strategies may improve the projections for metals or rare elements in astromining, but also benchmarks materials during low temperature (-60 F), high dessication environments as seen during atmospheric exposure. The results indicate high aluminum, magnesium and iron content for various sampled particles recovered, but generalization to the sporadic meteors expected from asteroidal sources will require future improvements in larger sampling volumes before a broad-use strategy for chemical analysis can be described. A repeat of the experimental procedure is planned for the November 1999 Leonids' shower, and various improvements for atmospheric sampling will be discussed.

Noever, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2015 Geminid Meteor Shower

Since early 2006 the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has routinely monitored the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. Activity from the Geminid meteor shower (EM) was observed in 2015, resulting in the detection of 45 lunar impact flashes (roughly 10% of the NASA dataset), in about 10 hours of observation with peak R magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 11. A subset of 30 of these flashes, observed 14-15 December, was analyzed in order to determine the luminous efficiency, the ratio of emitted luminous energy to the meteoroid's kinetic energy. The resulting luminous efficiency, found to range between n = 1.8 x 10(exp -4) and 3.3 x 10(exp -3), depending on the assumed mass index and flux, was than applied to calculate the masses of Geminid meteoroids striking the Moon in 2015.

Moser, D. E.↗