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Anybody can design a system that works. Our mission is to design a system that, when it fails, will fail in an orderly manner that will result in a minimum of injury or loss of life There is no such thing as “safe,” or “working safely.”
This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission was designed to find transiting planets around bright, nearby stars. Here, we present the detection and mass measurement of a small, short-period (≈4 days) transiting planet around the bright (V = 7.9), solar-type star HD 86226 (TOI-652, TIC 22221375), previously known to host a long-period (∼1600 days) giant planet. HD 86226c (TOI-652.01) has a radius of 2.16 ± 0.08 R {sub ⊕} and a mass of 7.25{sub −1.12}{sup +1.19} M {sub ⊕}, based on archival and new radial velocity data. We also update the parameters of the longer-period, not-known-to-transit planet, and find it to be less eccentric and less massive than previously reported. The density of the transiting planet is 3.97 g cm{sup −3}, which is low enough to suggest that the planet has at least a small volatile envelope, but the mass fractions of rock, iron, and water are not well-constrained. Given the host star brightness, planet period, and location of the planet near both the “radius gap” and the “hot Neptune desert,” HD 86226c is an interesting candidate for transmission spectroscopy to further refine its composition.
Stellar photospheric heterogeneity is a dominant astrophysical systematic impacting exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission is designed to address this challenge through contemporaneous visible-band photometry and near-infrared spectroscopy of exoplanet host stars. Here, we present an end-to-end simulation study quantifying Pandora’s ability to infer stellar photospheric properties and correct stellar contamination using out-of-transit observations. We construct eight representative stellar activity scenarios and generate 160 simulated Pandora datasets, incorporating time-dependent stellar spectra, instrument response, and noise. Given accurate models, Bayesian retrievals of joint visible photometry (0.4–0.7 μm) and near-infrared spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm, R ≈ 120) recover photospheric temperatures with typical uncertainties of ≈30 K, with no significant bias. Models with two spectral components (i.e., a quiescent photosphere and spots) are strongly favored in 95% of cases; one-component models are preferred when true spot filling factors fall below a detection threshold of ≈0.3%. We propagate the true and inferred stellar parameters to compute true, inferred, and residual contamination signals under physically motivated spot geometries. For simple spot distributions, contamination signals of 10 2 –10 3 ppm are reduced to ≲10 ppm—well below Pandora’s expected transmission spectroscopy precision (30–100 ppm). For more complex spot distributions, geometric degeneracies limit deterministic corrections, leaving residual contamination at the 10 3 ppm level that must be mitigated using additional constraints, such as spot-crossing events and joint stellar–planetary retrievals of transmission spectra. These results define regimes in which stellar contamination can be corrected from stellar observations alone and show how Pandora stellar observations can identify cases where additional information is required.
Artificial intelligence (AI) promises powerful new capabilities in an expansive array of applications. One area is proliferation detection, where AI can provide transformative tools to achieve objectives currently inaccessible using conventional methods. In particular, AI affords the opportunity to use new indicators and process massive amounts of heterogeneous data that can increase sensitivity to proliferant activities and push proliferation detection to the earliest possible stages. However, existing AI tools are not ready to achieve such potential, falling short in regard to some important considerations involved in proliferation detection. One crucial aspect that requires improvement is the explainability of the most powerful AI algorithms (i.e., understanding how the algorithms actually arrive at their conclusions)-the lack of which prevents widespread adoption in national security missions. The Data Science and AI portfolio within the National Nuclear Security Administration's Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development is driving the development of next-generation AI for proliferation detection through the expertise and work of the national laboratories and partners in academia. The "Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications" workshop aimed to further this objective. The meeting was held virtually on Sept. 15-16, 2020 and included more than 170 participants, primarily from the national laboratories with additional contributions from university researchers and mission partners. Each day included a keynote presentation, four technical presentations about cutting-edge research in explainability, and a panel to explore considerations in applying explainability and developing AI systems that can accelerate the transition of emerging AI technologies among partners and end users to solve critical mission questions. This report summarizes the Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection workshop's content and findings.
The Resolve microcalorimeter spectrometer on the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) is designed to have a good timing capability with the mission-level requirement of 1 ms as the absolute time tagging accuracy to suffice the needs for observatory science. In the ground calibration campaign, the absolute and relative timing offsets were measured using pulsed X-rays from the modulated X-ray sources. These offsets were used to determine calibration parameters, the Resolve timing coefficients, which are used in the offline correction of event times. In the orbit, reevaluation of the timing coefficients was carried out using the Crab pulsar, which was observed in two periods, one in the performance verification phase and the other in the guest observation phase. We report the absolute timing calibration of XRISM/Resolve using the ground and in-orbit data. Although the requirement is likely satisfied with the ground parameters, the timing coefficients have been refined using the in-orbit calibration to improve the timing accuracy. In addition, for the first time, we present the interpretation of the absolute timing offset originating from the analog and digital processing of X-ray events unique to a microcalorimeter spectrometer and present a complete view of the timing error of the Resolve instrument.
This report summarizes the reactor analysis work performed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for Antares Nuclear Incorporated's R1 Mark-1 heat pipe reactor design. The work was performed under a collaboration through the Department of Energy GAIN Nuclear Energy Voucher program. The purpose of this work is to perform an independent reactor analysis of the Antares reactor design and, where possible, compare ORNL's results with the results obtained by Antares. The overarching goal is to provide Antares with an independent review and calculation of their design, thereby contributing to Antares' mission to further their reactor design concept. A report with all ORNL technical results and proprietary details was provided to Antares Nuclear Incorporated separately; the present report provides a summary of the work completed, and all proprietary information is omitted. The independent reactor analysis was performed using both the SCALE code system for neutronics analysis and Flownex for thermal hydraulics analysis.
Improvements to battery design often focus on the energy density of the active material and/or utilization of the available active material. Optimizing thermal management design at the cell-level and/or the pack level is key to accomplishing mission-relevant battery design. Measurement of heat signatures at each level helps inform manufacturing at the design, production, and characterization phases. Understanding thermal limitations allows end users to make well-informed decisions on design of durable and safe battery packs.
NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) intends to demonstrate a 10 kWe fission surface power (FSP) system on the surface of the Moon as part of a Capability Demonstration Mission. STMD tasked a joint NASA-DOE team to ‘outline an FSP reactor concept that can be readied for 2027 launch,’ and serves ‘as a pathfinder for future power modules for Mars.’ Tables 1 and 2 respectively list FSP performance requirements and design guidance provided for the study. DOE is the leading agency for the reactor module, reactor controls and radiation shielding, and shares joint responsibility for the overall FSP system. This report summarizes an analysis of alternative reactor classes and shielding configurations carried out by the DOE national laboratories. Representative reactor and shielding configurations were based on heritage and are in alignment with the industry initiatives. This report presents no recommendations on the appropriate choice of fuel or class of reactor that NASA should pursue. Instead the focus here is to provide a summary and findings of analyses carried out by DOE national laboratory personnel.
Designing new technology for extraterrestrial applications certainly presents unique challenges. The environmental stressors perovskite-based photovoltaics must overcome will vary with the environment in which they are deployed. One must consider mission requirements when designing photovoltaic devices and packaging. Different space "theaters" can have dramatically different stressors needing consideration for designing panels for solar power generation. Here, in this article, we review the relevant space environmental conditions that must be considered when designing perovskite-based photovoltaic devices for implementation in space. We specifically consider thermal, radiation, gaseous, weather, and other phenomena most relevant to photovoltaic operation for specific theaters such as Low Earth Orbit, Geosynchronous Orbit, Lunar surface, Mars (orbit and surface), and interplanetary exploration pathways.
Battery design efforts often prioritize enhancing the energy density of the active materials and their utilization. However, optimizing thermal management systems at both the cell and pack levels is also key to achieving mission-relevant battery design. Battery thermal management systems, responsible for managing the thermal profile of battery cells, are crucial for balancing the trade-offs between battery performance and lifetime. Designing such systems requires accounting for the multitude of heat sources within battery cells and packs. This paper provides a summary of heat generation characterizations observed in several commercial Li-ion battery cells using isothermal battery calorimetry. The primary focus is on assessing the impact of temperatures, C-rates, and formation cycles. Moreover, a module-level characterization demonstrated the significant additional heat generated by module interconnects. Characterizing heat signatures at each level helps inform manufacturing at the design, production, and characterization phases that might otherwise go unaccounted for at the full pack level. Further testing of a 5 kWh battery pack revealed that a considerable temperature non-uniformity may arise due to inefficient cooling arrangements. To mitigate this type of challenge, a combined thermal characterization and multi-domain modeling approach is proposed, offering a solution without the need for constructing a costly module prototype.
The erosion of the global security environment over the last two decades has been rapid and dramatic. It appears also to be accelerating. There are deep and widening concerns in the United States and among its allies and partners that deterrence too has eroded at both the conventional and nuclear levels. The Strategic Posture Commission captured the essence of the problem in its October 2023 report—the United States seeks to meet the challenges of complex multipolar nuclear rivalry in the 21 st century with a slimmed down version of a nuclear deterrent designed in the middle of the 20 th century. With great urgency, the Commission recommended that something more and/or different is needed than simply the replacement of legacy systems with modern variants. But the U.S. nuclear security enterprise was reshaped after the Cold War to support the stockpile stewardship mission—not renewed designed, engineering, and production at scale. It has long fallen short of the agility, flexibility, and adaptiveness periodically asked of it by national leaders. In recent years, however, the message of urgency has been clearly received in the enterprise. Its culture has begun to shift. It has also been received by those in Washington D.C. responsible for funding and guiding the enterprise. The result is an enterprise in transition. Stockpile stewardship has given way to stockpile transformation. Risk aversion is giving way to risk management. Innovation and adaptation have been embraced. Experience to date has yielded some important lessons about what works and what doesn’t in terms of accelerating and delivering the needed innovation and adaptation. It has revealed the enduring character of some challenges. But it has also revealed that a much more agile and effective enterprise is within the national reach—something that will pay important dividends for deterrence, assurance, strategic stability, and peace.
Color is important in helping users effectively process information like text and symbols when performing tasks on digital displays. Interface designers in safety- and mission-critical industries often utilize human factors design guidelines and standards to make important design decisions like the use of color for legibility and distinguishability. However, such guidance sometimes requires additional interpretation and calculation to readily apply to the design question at hand. This work describes a simple tool that can be used to evaluate the adequacy of color choices from a palette for being legible or distinguishable. The tool eliminates having to manually convert colors to a readable format while providing a specific set of colors that are acceptable from select human factors standards. This paper provides an exemplary case study applied to a digital modification at a nuclear power plant to highlight how the tool may be used in safety and mission-critical industries.
Mars exploration motivates the search for extraterrestrial life, the development of space technologies, and the design of human missions and habitations. Here, we seek new insights and pose unresolved questions relating to the natural history of Mars, habitability, robotic and human exploration, planetary protection, and the impacts on human society.
During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed ‘The Gadget’ that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, 238Pu and 239Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses. Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose. There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.
The Mars Organic Molecule Analyzer (MOMA) is a key scientific instrument on the ExoMars Rover mission. MOMA is designed to detect and characterize organic compounds, over a wide range of volatility and molecular weight, in samples obtained from up to two meters below the martian surface. Thorough analog sample studies are required to best prepare to interpret MOMA data collected on Mars. We present here the MOMA characterization of Mars analog samples collected from an alkaline silica depositing hot spring in Yellowstone National Park, WY, USA. These samples contain microbial streamer communities composed primarily of oxygenic and anoxygenic phototrophs. Additionally, in a study focused on detection of key classes of nonvolatile organics, samples of microbial streamers and their total lipid extract (TLE) have been measured on a MOMA Engineering Test Unit (ETU) instrument using its laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS) mode. MOMA LDI-MS detected a variety of lipids and pigments in the TLE sample. Species such as chlorophyll a were also detected from the streamer sample with the help of mass isolation. The results add to the LDI-MS sample characterization database, as well as demonstrate the benefit of using mass isolation on the MOMA instrument to reveal the presence of complex organics, and potential biomarkers, preserved in a natural sample, providing guidance to the in situ analysis of surface samples during Mars operations.
Topics covered include: Our Science; Guiding Principle of Los Alamos; LANL the Design Laboratory; Weapons Mission; Science, Engineering and Computations; Future Weapons Program R&D; NNSA; Aging Weapons; A Final Thought; and, Questions and Answers.
The goal of this project is to investigate the molecular interactions of H 2 with earth materials (EMs) that may potentially affect economics and safety of H 2 geological storage (HGS). We investigated (1) the H 2 intercalation into interlayers of phyllosilicates, (2) the competitive adsorption of H 2 /CH 4 onto porous materials, and (3) solubility of H 2 in interfacial and confined hydrocarbons. Our results indicate that (i) H 2 intercalation into hydrated interlayers is thermodynamically unfavorable and H 2 solubility in hydrated clay interlayers is in the same order of magnitude as that in bulk water, (ii) CH 4 outcompetes H 2 in adsorption onto kerogen, due to stronger CH 4 -kerogen interactions than H 2 -kerogen interactions, (iii) H 2 tends to dissolve more in oil than in water, and the introduction of CO 2 as a cushion gas reduces H 2 partitioning near the kaolinite surfaces. The outcomes provide foundational knowledge for preparing the USA for future storage site selection and storage system design, supporting DOE missions in clean and secured energy.