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Results for “Model Sensitivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Space Station Freedom Beta Gimbal Control via Sensitivity Models

Tracking control of the Space Station Freedom solar array beta gimbals is investigated. Of particular interest is the issue of control in the presence of uncertainty in gimbal friction parameters. Sensitivity functions are incorporated into the feedback loop to desensitize the gimbal control law to parameter variations. Simulation results indicated that one such sensitivity function improves the closed-loop performance of the gimbals in the presence of unexpected friction parameter dispersions.

Schoenwald, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

High-Resolution Simulation of Snowfall over the Korean Eastern Coastal Region Using WRF Model: Sensitivity to Domain Nesting-Down Strategy

The eastern coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, Yeongdong region, often experiences severe snowfall during the winter season. We studied here the development mechanism of a snowfall case occurred in February 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at the convection-permitting resolution of 1 km. The model reasonably captured the observed snowfall, and three factors were discovered as important contributors to this snowfall case: a temperature contrast between land and ocean, a high-pressure system over the northeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, and the mountainous terrain. Cold and dry air blown from the high-pressure system gains heat and moisture when it passes over the East Sea enhancing the low-level instability. When the air mass reaches the coastline, updraft is generated by the density difference with the continental atmosphere and by the mountain slope. Further sensitivity experiments were conducted by adjusting strategies of nesting down (offline and online). Sensitivity experiments consist of three offline nesting experiments with different boundary condition update frequencies in 6, 3 and 1 h and one online nesting experiment that updates the boundary condition every integration time step. The major snowfall along the mountain range located in the middle of domain does not change significantly regardless of the nesting frequency. The offline nesting causes unphysical discontinuities of precipitation along the north and east sides of lateral boundary where wind blows in, which are caused by the absence of condensed hydrometeor variables in the lateral boundary condition. The domain nesting strategy tested in this study has dramatically impacted on the upper troposphere structure in the model: artificial fluctuations at the upper troposphere in the offline nesting simulations were significantly alleviated in the online nesting simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Flare model sensitivity of the Balmer spectrum

Careful studies of various chromospheric spectral signatures are very important in order to explore their possible sensitivity to the modifications of the thermodynamic quantities produced by the flare occurrence. Pioneer work of Canfield and co-workers have shown how the H alpha behavior is able to indicate different changes in the atmospheric parameters structure associated to the flare event. It was decided to study the behavior of the highest Balmer lines and of the Balmer continuum in different solar flare model atmospheres. These spectral features, originating in the deep photosphere in a quiet area, may have a sensitivity different from H alpha to the modification of a flare atmosphere. The details of the method used to compute the Stark profile of the higher Balmer line (n is greater than or equal to 6) and their merging were extensively given elsewhere (Donati-Falchi et al., 1985; Falchi et al., 1989). The models used were developed by Ricchiazzi in his thesis (1982) evaluating the chromospheric response to both the nonthermal electron flux, for energy greater than 20 kev, (F sub 20) and to the thermal conduction, (F sub c). The effect of the coronal pressure values (P sub O) at the apex of the flare loop is also included.

Falchi, A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Relating ground truth collection to model sensitivity

The importance of collecting high quality ground truth before a SAR mission over a forested area is two fold. First, the ground truth is used in the analysis and interpretation of the measured backscattering properties; second, it helps to justify the use of a scattering model to fit the measurements. Unfortunately, ground truth is often collected based on visual assessment of what is perceived to be important without regard to the mission itself. Sites are selected based on brief surveys of large areas, and the ground truth is collected by a process of selecting and grouping different scatterers. After the fact, it may turn out that some of the relevant parameters are missing. A three-layer canopy model based on the radiative transfer equations is used to determine, before hand, the relevant parameters to be collected. Detailed analysis of the contribution to scattering and attenuation of various forest components is carried out. The goal is to identify the forest parameters which most influence the backscattering as a function of frequency (P-, L-, and C-bands) and incident angle. The influence on backscattering and attenuation of branch diameters, lengths, angular distribution, and permittivity; trunk diameters, lengths, and permittivity; and needle sizes, their angular distribution, and permittivity are studied in order to maximize the efficiency of the ground truth collection efforts. Preliminary results indicate that while a scatterer may not contribute to the total backscattering, its contribution to attenuation may be significant depending on the frequency.

Amar, Faouzi↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Determinants of Offshore Wind's Role in a Future U.S. Energy System: A Preliminary Modeling Sensitivity Analysis [Slides]

Offshore wind is an emerging industry in the with rapidly changing technology advancements and an accelerating global deployment. Policy demands and interest in the United States has grown, but the long-term future for offshore wind remains uncertain. This study is designed to evaluate offshore wind's potential role in the future U.S. energy system. The analysis uses long-term power system models to assess a wide-range of power system possibilities. Specific objectives of the analysis are to: (1) identify the determinants of offshore wind deployment under different scenarios and (2) understand the impacts of substantial levels of offshore wind deployment on the power system. We also highlight future research needs for more robust understanding the opportunities and challenges to U.S. offshore wind development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Model sensitivity studies of the decrease in atmospheric carbon tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. But, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl 4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl 4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74 % of total), but a reported 10 % uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl 4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl 4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9 % of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17 % of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl 4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl 4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). Furthermore, with an assumed CCl 4 emission rate of 39 Gg year -1 , the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl 4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl 4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year -1 . Further progress in constraining the CCl 4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. The observed differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl 4 sinks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

A sensitivity model for energy consumption in buildings. Part 1: Effect of exterior environment

A simple analytical model is developed for the simulation of seasonal heating and cooling loads of any class of buildings to complement available computerized techniques which make hourly, daily, and monthly calculations. An expression for the annual energy utilization index, which is a common measure of rating buildings having the same functional utilization, is derived to include about 30 parameters for both building interior and exterior environments. The sensitivity of a general class building to either controlled or uncontrolled weather parameters is examined. A hypothetical office type building, located at the Goldstone Space Communication Complex, Goldstone, California, is selected as an example for the numerical sensitivity evaluations. Several expressions of variations in local outside air temperature, pressure, solar radiation, and wind velocity are presented.

Lansing, F. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Watson, Leela R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure-sensitive modeling of high temperature creep in grade-91 alloy

Predicting the effects of microstructure on high-temperature creep responses of steel components is critical to minimize the risks of failure and maximize economic viability in the energy sector. In this research, a recently developed advanced mechanistic constitutive model is employed to study the effect of microstructure on the creep responses and to rationalize experimentally reported variability in the performances of grade-91 alloy. Hundreds of experimental creep tests from the literature are used to assess the predictability of the model. The model proposed is shown to accurately predict the steady-state creep rates and also the less commonly considered, yet important, primary-to-secondary transients for a wide range of creep conditions. Further, the model is capable of extrapolating the creep response of grade 91 alloy even outside of the calibration regime. Using this model, the roles of initial microstructure described in terms of grain size, dislocation density, and precipitate content, on the creep responses are investigated. The effect of initial microstructure on the steady-state creep rates and creep-strain is found to vary with stress and temperature. Grain size plays a significant role in the low-stress creep, where the diffusional creep is dominant. On the other hand, the effects of dislocation densities and precipitate content are significant in the dislocation-plasticity-dominated high-stress and temperature regimes. Furthermore, by comparing model predictions against a large experimental creep database, it is found that variability in the creep responses can be rationalized on the basis of differences in the initial microstructure. Overall, this work provides a robust pathway for microstructure-aware engineering design, verification, and validation of metallic components for energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeled sensitivity of multi-MA accelerator performance to electrode contaminant inventory

Significant particle-in-cell code development has enabled simulations of power flow in multi-MA accelerators to include the desorption of surface contaminants, their ionization into surface plasmas, and the impact of these plasmas on efficiency. The simulations base desorption on an Arrhenius equation, whose most significant unknown is the surface contaminant inventory. The sensitivity of power-flow simulations to this inventory is studied here using Sandia National Laboratories' Z accelerator with a 7-nH MagLIF load [Phys. Plasmas 17, 056303 (2010)]. Simulations are conducted in 3D cylindrical coordinates for the current-adder, or “convolute,” region of Z and in 2D for the final feed only. Simulated contaminant inventories are varied from 1 to 32 monolayers (MLs) in 2D, and 2 to 4 ML in 3D. The results reveal sensitivities to the local ratio of E/B⁠. The high B-field, low E-field region near the short-circuit load is insensitive to the contaminant inventory, where assumed values of 4–32 ML change the load current by ≤ 2%, and agree with experiment to within 2% at peak current. A 1-ML value is the outlier, increasing the load current by 5%, but still within measurement uncertainty. In contrast, the relatively higher E-field, lower B-field convolute region has slower contaminant desorption and higher-magnitude E-field penetration of the surface plasmas. The current loss in the convolute region does increase with contaminant inventory. The loss assuming 4 ML is 12% larger than for 2 ML, with 4 ML being the better match to experiment.

Arrhenius equation↗