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DOE OSTI2025

Near-ideal relaxed MHD in slab geometry

We investigate the solutions of the relaxed magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model (RxMHD) of R. Dewar and Z. Qu. This model generalizes Taylor relaxation by including the ideal Ohm's law constraint using an augmented Lagrangian method, providing a pathway to extend the multi-region relaxed MHD (MRxMHD) model. We present the first numerical solution of the RxMHD model by Dewar and Qu, demonstrating that it is mathematically well-defined and computationally feasible for constructing MHD equilibria in slab geometry. We also show that a cross-field flow can exist without enforcing an arbitrary constraint on the angular momentum, as is done in the case of MRxMHD with flow. Our results also demonstrate the self-organization of fully relaxed regions during the optimization, which was an important motivation behind developing this model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Degenerate coupled-cluster theory

A size-extensive, converging, black-box, ab initio coupled-cluster (ΔCC) ansatz is introduced that computes the energies and wave functions of states from any degenerate or nondegenerate Slater-determinant references with any numbers of α- and β-spin electrons, any patterns of orbital occupancy, any spin multiplicities, and any spatial symmetries. For a nondegenerate reference, it reduces to the single-reference coupled-cluster ansatz. For a degenerate multireference, it is a natural coupled-cluster extension of degenerate Møller–Plesset perturbation (ΔMP) theory. For ionized and electron-attached references, it is a coupled-cluster Green’s function, although the present theory is convergent toward the full-configuration-interaction limits, while the Feynman–Dyson many-body Green’s function (MBGF) theory generally is not. Its single-excitation instance is a projection Hartree–Fock theory as per the Thouless theorem, which may be useful for core ionizations, high-spin states, and possibly electron affinities. Additionally, a new multireference coupled-cluster theory for a general model space is developed. This quasidegenerate coupled-cluster (QCC) theory is exactly converging, but not black-box, and intended for strong correlation. Determinant-based, general-order algorithms of ΔCC and QCC theories are implemented and compared with configuration-interaction (CI) and equation-of-motion coupled-cluster (EOM-CC) theories through octuple excitations and with ΔMP and MBGF theories up to the nineteenth order. An algebraic, optimal-scaling algorithm of the ΔCC theory is computer-synthesized at the levels of single excitations (ΔCCS) and of single and double excitations (ΔCCSD). As a result, the order of performance is QCC ≈ ΔCC > EOM-CC > CI at the same order or QCC ≈ ΔCC > ΔMP > MBGF at the same cost scaling.

Hirata, So [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Working Fluid Characterization and Performance Assessment of Subcritical Organic Rankine Cycles Based on the Lee–Kesler Approach for Energy Recovery

Here, a generalized model using the Lee–Kesler approach based on the corresponding states principle is developed to assess the performance of subcritical Organic Rankine Cycles operating with different working fluids. Each fluid is characterized by five parameters: the acentric factor, critical temperature, critical pressure, molar mass, and the ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature. The model was developed using the compressibility factor modified version of the Benedict–Webb–Rubin equation proposed by Lee and Kesler and the enthalpy and entropy functions to calculate thermodynamic state properties. The model was validated by comparing the results calculated with the model and working fluid thermodynamic properties obtained with the CoolProp database. This comparison was conducted for 91 working fluids, obtaining a relative error below 5% for 88 out of the 91 fluids (∼97%). A generalized parametric study was conducted to determine the influence of the pinch point and each fluid parameter on the performance of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems. It was found that efficiency increases with critical temperature, ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature, and acentric factor, reaching up to 13%. The developed model enables the evaluation of ORC system performance for existing working fluids. It also allows the formulation and evaluation of new fluids to enhance the performance of the ORC while retrieving energy from any kind of source; and likewise, the methodology can be applied to other power generation cycles.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strong Sensitivity of Simulated Biomass Burning Aerosol Transport and Radiative Effects Over the South Atlantic to Carbonaceous Aerosol Aging and Particle Density

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) impacts climate through aerosol‐cloud‐radiation interactions, but models disagree on the sign and magnitude of BBA radiative effects. We quantify the sensitivity of BBA radiative effects and transport to three BBA‐relevant processes and properties: parameterized oxidative aging of organic aerosol (OA), a combined change to black carbon (BC) density and the method for calculating aerosol refractive index, and reduction in OA density. We evaluate Unified Model simulations against two aircraft campaigns from summer 2017 over the Southeast Atlantic. The model generally performs well, such that discrepancies between the observational data sets may sometimes limit the precision of the evaluation. Our newly developed aging parameterization reproduces observed OA:BC mass ratios well and allows modeled OA:BC to decrease with smoke age, but increases bias in aerosol extinction and changes the BBA radiative effect little (+0.12 W m -2 ). We calculate aerosol refractive index using either a volume‐weighted component average or the Maxwell‐Garnett (MG) mixing assumption, which represents BC as small inclusions in a host material. Compared to MG mixing, the volume‐weighted average refractive index and reduced BC density increase aerosol absorption, substantially increasing the total BBA radiative effect (+2.66 W m -2 ) and amount of BBA transported across the ocean through BC self‐lofting. Reducing OA density to better match literature values changes the total BBA radiative effect by −1.96 W m -2 . Changes to direct radiative effects exceed changes to cloud radiative effects. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of aerosol radiative effects and transport to these processes and properties, which we suggest could be improved in climate models.

Southeast Atlantic↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalizing multiple memories from a single drive: The hysteron latch

Far-from-equilibrium systems can form memories of previous deformations or driving. In systems from sheared glassy materials to buckling beams to crumpled sheets, this behavior is dominated by return-point memory, in which revisiting a past extremum of driving restores the system to a previous state. Cyclic driving with both positive and negative strains forms multiple nested memories, as in a single-dial combination lock, while asymmetric driving (only positive strain) cannot. We study this case in a general model of hysteresis that considers discrete elements called hysterons. We show how two hysterons with a frustrated interaction can violate return-point memory, realizing multiple memories of asymmetric driving. This reveals a general principle for designing systems that store sequences of cyclic driving, whether symmetric or asymmetric. In disordered systems, asymmetric driving is a sensitive tool for the direct measurement of frustration.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of a Global Geospace Model With a Systems Science Approach Based on Canonical Correlation Analysis

A systems science approach based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is applied as a new, behavioral way to validate global geospace models. The biggest novelty of the technique is that it validates models at a system level, whereby a side‐by‐side comparison is performed of CCA applied to a 30‐day observational and the corresponding simulation data sets comprising quiet, moderate and active times. The simulation used the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model. It is shown that (a) CCA must be combined with sensitivity analysis to be effective, (b) the MAGE model generally reproduces the observed behavior (more so for quieter time intervals), quantified by the intercorrelations between different variables and (c) the technique identifies the SuperMAG SML index as a quantity for which refinements of the model are needed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Classifying thermodynamic cloud phase using machine learning models

Vertically resolved thermodynamic cloud-phase classifications are essential for studies of atmospheric cloud and precipitation processes. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Thermodynamic Cloud Phase (THERMOCLDPHASE) value-added product (VAP) uses a multi-sensor approach to classify the thermodynamic cloud phase by combining lidar backscatter and depolarization, radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectral width, microwave-radiometer-derived liquid water path, and radiosonde temperature measurements. The measured pixels are classified as ice, snow, mixed phase, liquid (cloud water), drizzle, rain, and liq_driz (liquid+drizzle). We use this product as the ground truth to train three machine learning (ML) models to predict the thermodynamic cloud phase from multi-sensor remote sensing measurements taken at the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory: a random forest (RF), a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a U-Net architecture. Evaluations against the outputs of the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP with 1 year of data show that the CNN outperforms the other two models, achieving the highest test accuracy, F1 score, and mean intersection over union (IOU). Analysis of ML confidence scores shows that ice, rain, and snow have higher confidence scores, followed by liquid, while mixed, drizzle, and liq_driz have lower scores. Feature importance analysis reveals that the mean Doppler velocity and vertically resolved temperature are the most influential data streams for ML thermodynamic cloud-phase predictions. Lidar measurements exhibit lower feature importance due to rapid signal attenuation caused by the frequent presence of persistent low-level clouds at the NSA site. The ML models' generalization capacity is further evaluated by applying them at another Arctic ARM site in Norway using data taken during the ARM Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) field campaign. The models demonstrated similar performance to that observed at the NSA site. Finally, we evaluate the ML models' response to simulated instrument outages and signal degradation and show that a CNN U-Net model trained with input channel dropouts performs better when input fields are missing.

ARM Aerial Facility↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic Cloud Phase Classifications Using Machine Learning at NSA and ANX

Vertically resolved thermodynamic cloud phase classifications are essential for studies of atmospheric cloud and precipitation processes. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) THERMOCLDPHASE Value-Added Product (VAP) uses a multi-sensor approach to classify thermodynamic cloud phase by combining lidar backscatter and depolarization, radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectral width, microwave radiometer-derived liquid water path, and radiosonde temperature measurements. The measured voxels are classified as ice, snow, mixed-phase, liquid (cloud water), drizzle, rain, and liq_driz (liquid+drizzle). We use this product as the ground truth to train three machine learning (ML) models to predict the thermodynamic cloud phase from multi-sensor remote sensing measurements taken at the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory: a random forest (RF), a multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a U-Net architecture. Evaluations against the outputs of the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP with one year of data show that the CNN outperforms the other two models, achieving the highest test accuracy, F1-score, and mean Intersection over Union (IOU). Analysis of ML confidence scores shows ice, rain, and snow have higher confidence scores, followed by liquid, while mixed, drizzle, and liq_driz have lower scores. Feature importance analysis reveals that the mean Doppler velocity and vertically resolved temperature are the most influential datastreams for ML thermodynamic cloud phase predictions. The ML models’ generalization capacity is further evaluated by applying them at another Arctic ARM site in Norway using data taken during the ARM Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) field campaign. Finally, we evaluate the ML models’ response to simulated instrument outages and signal degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shift Happens: Building Robust AI Models with Domain Adaptation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research—from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data—exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This summer school session will introduce students to common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation—a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery. The concepts discussed are broadly applicable across physics and other scientific disciplines, making this a valuable topic for anyone interested in building robust, transferable AI models for science.

Ciprijanovic, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000031281719↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI in Astrophysics: Tackling Domain Shift, Model Robustness and Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This talk will introduce common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery.

Ciprijanvoic, Aleksandra [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000↗

DOE OSTI2025

EcoBOT: an AI/ML enabled automated phenotyping capability for model plants

Introduction: Advances in automation and AI/ML offer new opportunities for plant science, including design, modeling, and analysis. This study aimed to develop an automated platform for researching small model plants under axenic conditions and integrate it with AI/ML tools. Methods: The EcoBOT platform was developed, which consists of sterile containers (EcoFABs) for growing plants and imaging for monitoring plant growth and health. Brachypodium distachyon was grown on the EcoBOT, and its response to nutrient limitation and copper stress was evaluated. Results: The results showed that Brachypodium distachyon grown in the EcoBOT maintained sterility and responded to nutrient limitation and copper stress. Analysis of over 6,500 root and shoot images revealed varying sensitivity and response rates to copper. Bayesian Optimization was used to improve model accuracies relating copper concentrations to plant biomass via sequential experiments, resulting in a >30% improvement. Discussion: The findings of this study demonstrate the potential of the EcoBOT platform for researching plant responses to environmental factors. Future experiments could focus on relating other chemical stresses and microbial interactions to create generalized models of plant responses.

AI image analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

A fluctuating hydrodynamics model for nanoscale surfactant-laden interfaces

A multispecies diffuse interface model is formulated in a fluctuating hydrodynamics framework for the purpose of simulating surfactant interfaces at the nanoscale. The model generalizes previous work to ternary mixtures, employing a Cahn-Hilliard free energy density combined with incompressible, isothermal fluctuating hydrodynamics where dissipative fluxes include both deterministic and stochastic terms. The intermolecular parameters in the free energy are chosen such that one species acts as a partially miscible surfactant. From Laplace pressure measurements, we show that in this model the surface tension decreases linearly with surfactant concentration, leading to Marangoni convection for interfaces with concentration gradients. In the capillary wave spectrum for interfaces with and without surfactant, we find that for the former, the spectrum deviates significantly from classical capillary wave theory, presumably due to Gibbs elasticity. In non-equilibrium simulations of the Rayleigh-Plateau instability, deterministic simulations showed that the surfactant delays pinching of a fluid cylinder into droplets. However, stochastic simulations indicate that thermal fluctuations disrupt the surfactant's stabilizing effect. Similarly, the spreading of a patch of surfactant, driven by Marangoni convection, was found to be partially suppressed by thermal fluctuations.

Capillary waves↗

DOE OSTI2026

A foundation model for non-destructive defect identification from vibrational spectra

Defects are ubiquitous in solids and strongly influence materials’ functional properties. However, non-destructive characterization and quantification of defects, especially when multiple types coexist, remain a long-standing challenge. Here, we introduce DefectNet, a foundation machine learning model that predicts the chemical identity and concentration of substitutional point defects with multiple coexisting elements directly from vibrational spectra, specifically phonon density-of-states (PDoS). Trained on over 16,000 simulated spectra from 2,000 semiconductors, DefectNet employs a tailored attention mechanism to identify up to six distinct defect elements at concentrations ranging from 0.2% to 25%. The model generalizes well to unseen crystals across 56 elements and can be fine-tuned on experimental data. Validation using inelastic scattering measurements of SiGe alloys and MgB 2 superconductor demonstrates its accuracy and transferability. Furthermore, our work establishes vibrational spectroscopy as a viable, non-destructive probe for bulk point defect quantification, and highlights the promise of foundation models in data-driven defect engineering.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Problem-tailored Simulation of Energy Transport on Noisy Quantum Computers

The transport of conserved quantities like spin and charge is fundamental to characterizing the behavior of quantum many-body systems. Numerically simulating such dynamics is generically challenging, which motivates the consideration of quantum computing strategies. However, the relatively high gate errors and limited coherence times of today's quantum computers pose their own challenge, highlighting the need to be frugal with quantum resources. In this work we report simulations on quantum hardware of infinite-temperature energy transport in the mixed-field Ising chain, a paradigmatic many-body system that can exhibit a range of transport behaviors at intermediate times. We consider a chain with L = 12 sites and find results broadly consistent with those from ideal circuit simulators over 90 Trotter steps, containing up to 990 entangling gates. To obtain these results, we use two key problem-tailored insights. First, we identify a convenient basis – the Pauli Y basis – in which to sample the infinite-temperature trace and provide theoretical and numerical justifications for its efficiency relative to, e.g., the computational basis. Second, in addition to a variety of problem-agnostic error mitigation strategies, we employ a renormalization strategy that compensates for global nonconservation of energy due to device noise. We discuss the applicability of the proposed sampling approach beyond the mixed-field Ising chain and formulate a variational method to search for a sampling basis with small sample-to-sample fluctuations for an arbitrary Hamiltonian. This opens the door to applying these techniques in more general models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Vision Foundation Models in Remote Sensing: A survey

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have profoundly transformed the field of remote sensing (RS), revolutionizing data collection, processing, and analysis. Traditionally reliant on manual interpretation and task-specific models, RS research has been significantly enhanced by the advent of foundation models (FMs)—large-scale pretrained AI models capable of performing a wide array of tasks with unprecedented accuracy and efficiency. This article provides a comprehensive survey of FMs in the RS domain. We categorize these models based on their architectures, pretraining datasets, and methodologies. Through detailed performance comparisons, we highlight emerging trends and the significant advancements achieved by those FMs. Additionally, we discuss technical challenges, practical implications, and future research directions, addressing the need for high-quality data, computational resources, and improved model generalization. Our research also finds that pretraining methods, particularly self-supervised learning (SSL) techniques like contrastive learning (CL) and masked autoencoders (MAEs), remarkably enhance the performance and robustness of FMs. This survey aims to serve as a resource for researchers and practitioners by providing a panorama of advances and promising pathways for the continued development and application of FMs in RS.

data models↗