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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Energy and Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture Using ePTFE-Based Laminate-Structured Gas–Solid Contactors

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will play a significant role in limiting global warming if implemented on a large scale. Direct air capture (DAC) is a scalable approach for removing atmospheric carbon, yet the true scope of its scalability remains unclear due to the early stage of technology development and high first plant costs. This study provides groundwork for understanding the technoeconomic trade-offs in developing DAC systems using laminate-structured gas–solid contactors, encompassing the analysis of both contactor and process design spaces. The robust mass transfer and process models outlined in this study provide tools for evaluating DAC processes and designing DAC plants based on cost and energy analysis. First, the key contactor geometrical parameters are identified to understand the CO 2 productivity–energy demand trade-offs, where geometries yielding higher mass transfer rates can achieve higher CO 2 productivities at the expense of energy consumption by fans and steam use. Next, a detailed process parametric study is conducted for DAC systems coupled with steam-assisted temperature-vacuum swing adsorption (S-TVSA) to visualize the trade-offs in the multidimensional design space. The main cost driver dramatically changes over different process conditions, but the operating cost prevailed on the Pareto front, with potential to operate as low as 150 $/tonne-CO 2 (within the cost range of 148–504 $/tonne-CO 2 in this study where the DAC system is coupled with industrial facilities for steam production).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient and assured reinforcement learning-based building HVAC control with heterogeneous expert-guided training

Abstract Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for nearly half of building energy consumption and $$20\%$$ of total energy consumption in the US. Their operation is also crucial for ensuring the physical and mental health of building occupants. Compared with traditional model-based HVAC control methods, the recent model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based methods have shown good performance while do not require the development of detailed and costly physical models. However, these model-free DRL approaches often suffer from long training time to reach a good performance, which is a major obstacle for their practical deployment. In this work, we present a systematic approach to accelerate online reinforcement learning for HVAC control by taking full advantage of the knowledge from domain experts in various forms . Specifically, the algorithm stages include learning expert functions from existing abstract physical models and from historical data via offline reinforcement learning, integrating the expert functions with rule-based guidelines, conducting training guided by the integrated expert function and performing policy initialization from distilled expert function. Moreover, to ensure that the learned DRL-based HVAC controller can effectively keep room temperature within the comfortable range for occupants, we design a runtime shielding framework to reduce the temperature violation rate and incorporate the learned controller into it. Experimental results demonstrate up to 8.8 X speedup in DRL training from our approach over previous methods, with low temperature violation rate.

Xu, Shichao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of fusion plasma burn control via real-time, sub-divertor neutral gas isotopic and compositional analysis

The ability to provide fusion burn control without requiring physical access through the first wall and fuel breeding blankets, would be vital for any future, magnetically confined fusion power reactor. A multi-sensor, fusion fuel cycle exhaust, neutral gas analysis system on JET, capable of delivering real time data, and accessing only the sub-divertor region, provides an excellent example of such capability. Optimized for and operated during the deuterium–tritium experimental campaigns 2 and 3 (DTE2, DTE3), it is proving valuable for planning to explore fusion reactor burn control in ITER with a comparable diagnostic system called the Diagnostic Residual Gas Analyzer (DRGA). This paper aims to show feasibility of developing model-based controllers for ITER and next generation, reactor-relevant devices, by building both on the empirical experience in JET-DTE2, and on the already emerging experience on developing such models specifically for ITER. The paper begins with a specific use-case from JET-DTE2, pertaining to the observed sensitivity of the fusion neutron yield on the concentration of isotopic helium-3 ( 3 He), with data from one of the high-performance DT shots exhibited with emphasis on the 3 He measurement via the sub-divertor. Then, a first model is developed and then explored with simulations that aim to discover how well the controllers in the model react to either insufficient levels of 3 He or excessive levels of 3 He. The simulations then explore potential impact from a delay in the measurement (or the response) that would be comparable to the ∼1 s, conductance limited response for the ITER DRGA system, currently in its final design. The simulations show that control is feasible, and that its effectiveness is not significantly impacted by such delay.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Past, Present and Future of Structural Health Monitoring: An Overview of Three Ages

This paper presents an overview of the discipline of structural health monitoring (SHM), organised in terms of three proposed ages. The first age is delineated by the prehistory of SHM and the period where nondestructing testing methods evolved into an organised set of principles built upon physics-based models; this age ended when the model-based approaches reached an impasse in terms of their ability to properly deal with real-world problems. The second age of SHM began with a transition to data-based methods based on statistical pattern recognition, which provided a holistic approach to SHM problems for the first time. This age arguably ended when the methods foundered in situations where the necessary training data were scarce. It is argued here that the third age began with the development of population-based SHM, which has been designed to overcome the problem of data scarcity. As there is very limited space in a single article to provide a comprehensive overview, an appendix has been provided here that gives a very systematic bibliography of SHM reviews—a meta-bibliography.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACTIVE

The Automated Control Testbed for Integration, Verification, and Emulation (ACTIVE) framework is a software platform designed to support the optimized operation and management of a wide range of building types. It enables the development, testing, and validation of diverse control strategies, including AI-based, rule-based, and model-based approaches. The platform facilitates a seamless transition from simulation-based evaluation of control strategies to real-world field validation and deployment. ACTIVE supports the full building management lifecycle, encompassing data acquisition and management, system monitoring, optimized control, adaptive learning services, device dispatch and coordination, as well as advanced analytics and visualization. Together, these capabilities provide an integrated environment for improving building performance, operational efficiency, reducing energy cost, and reliability.

Smith, Robert [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
NASA NTRS1975

A model-based analysis of a display for helicopter landing approach

A control theoretic model of the human pilot was used to analyze a baseline electronic cockpit display in a helicopter landing approach task. The head down display was created on a stroke written cathode ray tube and the vehicle was a UH-1H helicopter. The landing approach task consisted of maintaining prescribed groundspeed and glideslope in the presence of random vertical and horizontal turbulence. The pilot model was also used to generate and evaluate display quickening laws designed to improve pilot vehicle performance. A simple fixed base simulation provided comparative tracking data.

Hess, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A model-based analysis of a display for helicopter landing approach

A control theoretic model of the human pilot was used to analyze a baseline electronic cockpit display in a helicopter landing approach task and to generate display quickening laws designed to improve pilot-vehicle performance. A simple fixed base simulation provided comparative tracking data which allowed refinement of the pilot model.

Hess, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Application of model based control to robotic manipulators

A robot that can duplicate humam motion capabilities in such activities as balancing, reaching, lifting, and moving has been built and tested. These capabilities are achieved through the use of real time Model-Based Control (MBC) techniques which have recently been demonstrated. MBC accounts for all manipulator inertial forces and provides stable manipulator motion control even at high speeds. To effectively demonstrate the unique capabilities of MBC, an experimental robotic manipulator was constructed, which stands upright, balancing on a two wheel base. The mathematical modeling of dynamics inherent in MBC permit the control system to perform functions that are impossible with conventional non-model based methods. These capabilities include: (1) Stable control at all speeds of operation; (2) Operations requiring dynamic stability such as balancing; (3) Detection and monitoring of applied forces without the use of load sensors; (4) Manipulator safing via detection of abnormal loads. The full potential of MBC has yet to be realized. The experiments performed for this research are only an indication of the potential applications. MBC has no inherent stability limitations and its range of applicability is limited only by the attainable sampling rate, modeling accuracy, and sensor resolution. Manipulators could be designed to operate at the highest speed mechanically attainable without being limited by control inadequacies. Manipulators capable of operating many times faster than current machines would certainly increase productivity for many tasks.

Petrosky, Lyman J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Effect of control sampling rates on model-based manipulator control schemes

The effect of changing the control sampling period on the performance of the computed-torque and independent joint control schemes is discussed. While the former utilizes the complete dynamics model of the manipulator, the latter assumes a decoupled and linear model of the manipulator dynamics. Researchers discuss the design of controller gains for both the computed-torque and the independent joint control schemes and establish a framework for comparing their trajectory tracking performance. Experiments show that within each scheme the trajectory tracking accuracy varies slightly with the change of the sampling rate. However, at low sampling rates the computed-torque scheme outperforms the independent joint control scheme. Based on experimental results, researchers also conclusively establish the importance of high sampling rates as they result in an increased stiffness of the system.

Khosla, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Model-based satellite acquisition and tracking

A model-based optical processor is introduced for the acquisition and tracking of a satellite in close proximity to an imaging sensor of a space robot. The type of satellite is known in advance, and a model of the satellite (which exists from its design) is used in this task. The model base is used to generate multiple smart filters of the various parts of the satellite, which are used in a symbolic multi-filter optical correlator. The output from the correlator is then treated as a symbolic description of the object, which is operated upon by an optical inference processor to determine the position and orientation of the satellite and to track it as a function of time. The knowledge and model base also serves to generate the rules used by the inference machine. The inference machine allows for feedback to optical correlators or feature extractors to locate the individual parts of the satellite and their orientations.

Casasent, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF EVENT TREES AND FAULT TREES: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH

In the past few decades, increasing complexity in modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components and by the fact that the system operations involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, plant operations, cyber-security). Current safety/reliability modeling approaches to such systems are labor intensive, difficult to learn, and rely heavily on simplistic Boolean logic to depict failure propagation and accident progression. While these methods serve well for simple systems (i.e., linear causal systems with limited small inter- and intra-system interactions), their results are difficult to verify when modeling complex systems (typically performed through the extensive use of modeling assumptions). The development of new methods is addressed to meet these challenges through a model-based system engineering (MBSE) lens. Under MBSE philosophy, every aspect of the system (form or function) is represented by a model that completely characterizes its architecture or behavior. MBSE approach greatly improves the management of design, analysis and verification of complex systems. An integration of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) methods with MBSE models is proposed to perform safety/reliability analyses of engineering systems. In particular, MBSE representation of the system (performed using Systems Modeling Language [SysML]) is coupled with DPRA methods to automatically generate event trees and fault trees.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning: A Model-based Approach to Analyze Equipment Reliability Data

In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data which can be used to assess and monitor component health and performance. Assessing component health from such data can be performed with a large variety of methods. While the analysis of numeric data can be performed with several methods, the extraction of information from textual data remains a challenge. Currently employed natural language processing (NLP) methods do not really provide quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. In addition, the integration of numeric and textual data to identify possible causal relationships between data elements is still an unresolved challenge. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual (e.g., incident or maintenance reports) and numeric data that relies on model based system engineer (MBSE) models. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence while semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis uses MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. Similarly, numeric data is directly linked to elements of the MBSE models in order to map which functions are being monitored.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

System Engineers and Decisions: It?s All about Knowledge

In order to guarantee that a system meets adequate levels of reliability and availability, system performances are continuously monitored and analyzed thanks to the technological advancements driving the Industry 4.0 revolution. An Industry 4.0 approach is typically based on advanced statistical, big data mining, machine learning, and internet-of-things methods designed to detect anomalies in the behavior of system, detect the most likely failure modes, and provide indications to system engineers on when maintenance activities should be performed before system performance are deemed unacceptable (which can be generated by diagnostic and prognostic methods). However, these analyses, which are designed to automatize and increase the efficacy of the system maintenance program, require large amount of data which can come in various forms: numeric, textual, images, sounds etc. Such data constitutes the historic knowledge benchmark to track system performances and support system engineer decisions. Here we claim that data is not sufficient to support this kind of analyses when applied to systems characterized by complex architectures and behaviors. Robust system engineer decisions require the ability to understand the system operational context that lies behind the observed data elements. In this respect, system models are in fact necessary to “put data in context” and capture relationships between data elements. Industry 4.0 methods require in fact contextual knowledge as a basis upon which hypotheses can be generated and assumptions tested. In our view, for complex systems, model-based system engineering (MBSE) models can afford this contextual knowledge, as they are typically used to describe systems architecture and dynamic behaviors. System knowledge is here intended as the blending of collected data and system architecture which takes the form of a “knowledge graph”. A knowledge graph is a database which consists of a large set of nodes (in our case an entity can be either a data or an MBSE element) which are linked to each other. The types of nodes and links follow a pre-defined topology, sometimes also refers as an ontology, that is designed to fit the actual decisions that needs to be performed. We show here how a knowledge graph can be defined to support system engineer maintenance decisions and how the same graph can be built based on system MBSE models and pre-processed data from numeric (through anomaly detections and diagnostic methods) and textual elements (through technical language processing TLP).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Capturing Historic Reliability Performance Through Graph Databases: A Model Based System Engineering Approach

With the goal of improving the performance and reliability of high dependable technological systems such as nuclear power plants, advanced monitoring and health management systems are employed to inform system engineers on observed degradation processes and anomalous behaviors of assets and components. This information is captured in the form of large amount of data which can be heterogenous in nature (e.g., numeric, textual). Such large data availability poses challenges when system engineers are required to parse and analyze them in order to track historic reliability performance of assets and components. This paper tackles directly this challenge by providing means to organize data in the form of a graph: a knowledge graph. The presented approach distinguish itself from current knowledge graph-based methods by the fact that model-based system engineering (MBSE) models are used to “put data into context”. In particular, MBSE models are used as skeleton of a knowledge graph; numeric and textual data elements, once processed, are associated to MBSE model elements. Thus, a knowledge graph captures both system architecture (though MBSE models) and health/performance data. Such feature opens the door to new data analytics methods designed to identify causal relations between observed phenomena.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗