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A Monte Carlo statistical computer analysis was used to create neutron and photon radiation predictions for the General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS RTG). The GPHS RTG is being used on several NASA planetary missions. Analytical results were validated using measured health physics data.
The results of three nonlinear the Monte Carlo dispersion analyses for the Space Transportation System 1 Flight (STS-1) Orbiter Descent Operational Flight Profile, Cycle 3 are presented. Fifty randomly selected simulation for the end of mission (EOM) descent, the abort once around (AOA) descent targeted line are steep target line, and the AOA descent targeted to the shallow target line are analyzed. These analyses compare the flight environment with system and operational constraints on the flight environment and in some cases use simplified system models as an aid in assessing the STS-1 descent flight profile. In addition, descent flight envelops are provided as a data base for use by system specialists to determine the flight readiness for STS-1. The results of these dispersion analyses supersede results of the dispersion analysis previously documented.
The United States’ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has announced that the Artemis Program will return humans to the Moon, establishing a persistent presence with the Artemis Base Camp (ABC), and extend human exploration to Mars. The NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center is using internationally developed simulation interoperability standards and NASA open source simulation tools to support Artemis concept, analysis, designs, development, training, and ultimately operations. The NExSyS team has been tasked to support early ABC architecture and mission analysis using mission time lines developed by the crew operations mission planning team. The NExSyS team is developing a distributed simulation framework with initial Artemis element implementations to model the ABC mission timelines using the international simulation interoperability standard High Level Architecture (HLA), the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization’s Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM), the NASA open source Trick Simulation Environment, and another NASA open source interface package called TrickHLA. The ABC architecture is composed of a number of key surface elements and resources. Some examples of modeled elements (also known as entities) are landers, habitats, rovers, logistics carriers, and astronauts. Some examples of modeled transferable and consumable resources are power, water, oxygen, nitrogen, scientific samples, and food. These entities and resources are modeled in a collection of individual simulations called Federates. A coordinated collection of interoperable federates is called a Federation and when these federates are tied together in a coordinated simulation run, it is referred to as a Federation Execution. The federates communicate through HLA using data exchange formats defined by a collection of machine readable files called Federation Object Models (FOMs). These FOM files are based on extensions to the SpaceFOM. This enables the instantiation and sharing of objects and interactions between federates in the federation. These provide for entity and resource tracking, object transfer, and data collection. Federate interactions are used to trigger events and notify federates of entity or resource transfers. For the initial implementation, the constituent federates are Trick-based simulations that use TrickHLA to provide the required HLA-base interoperability. These Trick-based simulations provide the required modeling for the individual Artemis elements along with the associated element resources. These federates provide a means to explore traverses between surface elements and exploration sites as scheduled in a mission timeline and explore the affects traverse times have on the overall mission timeline. The mission time lines are modeled using a Trick input file event handling capabilities. Each timeline operation is handled as individual simulation events, and triggered based on previous event status, time of operation, and simulated task completions. In addition, the ABC Federation can be used to perform Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo tool can vary the inputs, timings, and malfunctions to show how various contingencies in the mission can affect the mission timeline.
A computer program was developed which performs an error analysis of a minimum-fuel, finite-thrust, transfer maneuver between two Keplerian orbits in the vicinity of Mars. The method of analysis is the Monte Carlo approach where each off-nominal initial orbit is targeted to the desired final orbit. The errors in the initial orbit are described by two covariance matrices of state deviations and tracking errors. The function of the program is to relate these errors to the resulting errors in the final orbit. The equations of motion for the transfer trajectory are those of a spacecraft maneuvering with constant thrust and mass-flow rate in the neighborhood of a single body. The thrust vector is allowed to rotate in a plane with a constant pitch rate. The transfer trajectory is characterized by six control parameters and the final orbit is defined, or partially defined, by the desired target parameters. The program is applicable to the deboost maneuver (hyperbola to ellipse), orbital trim maneuver (ellipse to ellipse), fly-by maneuver (hyperbola to hyperbola), escape maneuvers (ellipse to hyperbola), and deorbit maneuver.
The results of a six degree of freedom (6-DOF) nonlinear Monte Carlo dispersion analysis for the latest glide return to landing site (GRTLS) abort trajectory for the Space Transportation System 1 Flight are presented. For this GRTLS, the number two main engine fails at 262.5 seconds ground elapsed time. Fifty randomly selected simulations, initialized at external tank separation, are analyzed. The initial covariance matrix is a 20 x 20 matrix and includes navigation errors and dispersions in position and velocity, time, accelerometer bias, and inertial platform misalinements. In all 50 samples, speedbrake, rudder, elevon, and body flap hinge moments are acceptable. Transitions to autoland begin before 9,000 feet and there are no tailscrapes. Navigation derived dynamic pressure accuracies exceed the flight control system constraints above Mach 2.5. Three out of 50 landings exceeded tire specification limit speed of 222 knots. Pilot manual landings are expected to reduce landing speed by landing farther downrange.
Designing a spacecraft, or any other complex engineering system, requires extensive simulation and analysis work. Oftentimes, the large amounts of simulation data generated are very di cult and time consuming to analyze, with the added risk of overlooking potentially critical problems in the design. The authors have developed a generic data analysis tool that can quickly sort through large data sets and point an analyst to the areas in the data set that cause specific types of failures. The Tool for Rapid Analysis of Monte Carlo simulations (TRAM) has been used in recent design and analysis work for the Orion vehicle, greatly decreasing the time it takes to evaluate performance requirements. A previous version of this tool was developed to automatically identify driving design variables in Monte Carlo data sets. This paper describes a new, parallel version, of TRAM implemented on a graphical processing unit, and presents analysis results for NASA's Orion Monte Carlo data to demonstrate its capabilities.
A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is used to build a plasma chemistry model for octacyclofluorobutane (c-C4F8) which is commonly used in dielectric etch. Experimental data are used both quantitatively and quantitatively to analyze the gas phase and gas surface reactions for neutral radical chemistry. The sensitivity data of the resulting model identifies a few critical gas phase and surface aided reactions that account for most of the uncertainty in the CF2 and CF radical densities. Electron impact dissociation of small radicals (CF2 and CF) and their surface recombination reactions are found to be the rate-limiting steps in the neutral radical chemistry. The relative rates for these electron impact dissociation and surface recombination reactions are also suggested. The resulting mechanism is able to explain the measurements of CF2 and CF densities available in the literature and also their hollow spatial density profiles.
Apollo lunar module structural integrity for lunar landing verified by Monte Carlo dynamic analysis
Recent advances linking medium-fidelity trajectory optimization and high-fidelity trajectory propagation/maneuver design software with Monte Carlo maneuver analysis and parallel processing enabled realistic statistical delta-V estimation well before launch. Completing this high-confidence, refined statistical maneuver analysis early enabled release of excess delta-V margin for increased dry mass margin for the Lucy Jupiter Trojan flyby mission. By 3.3 years before launch, 16 of 34 TCMs had 1000 re-optimized trajectory design samples, yielding tens of m/s lower 99%-probability delta-V versus targeting maneuvers to one optimal trajectory. One year later, 1000 re-optimized samples of all deterministic maneuvers and subsequent flybys further lowered estimated delta-V.
Fortran program using Monte Carlo method to establish probability distribution for rocket stage residual and total payload
Designing a spacecraft, or any other complex engineering system, requires extensive simulation and analysis work. Oftentimes, the large amounts of simulation data generated are very difficult and time consuming to analyze, with the added risk of overlooking potentially critical problems in the design. The authors have developed a generic data analysis tool that can quickly sort through large data sets and point an analyst to the areas in the data set that cause specific types of failures. The first version of this tool was a serial code and the current version is a parallel code, which has greatly increased the analysis capabilities. This paper describes the new implementation of this analysis tool on a graphical processing unit, and presents analysis results for NASA's Orion Monte Carlo data to demonstrate its capabilities.
The results of this trajectory replication are presented, followed by the results of monte-carlo maneuver simulations. The results are subject to two important assumptions: that linearization is valid (as the software used for the monte-carlo simulation, LAMBIC, is based on a linearization of the trajectory about the nominal) and that the planned human-in-the-loop lunar targeting may be approximated by targeting to a fixed aimpoint.
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The methodologies and development of the loads experienced during liftoff of the NASA SLS Block I vehicle will be presented in this paper. The liftoff loads analysis traditionally captures the dynamics of vehicle/pad separation after engine/booster ignition coupled with other launch day environments like wind, overpressure, and engine side loads. Additionally, the liftoff analysis includes an on-pad engine shutdown prior to booster ignition. The SLS liftoff analysis is performed using a Monte Carlo analysis and this paper will explore the Monte Carlo process and the statistical approach to calculating the limit loads.
A comprehensive understanding of mitigation measures for space radiation protection necessarily involves the relevant fields of nuclear physics and particle transport modeling. One method of modeling the interaction of radiation traversing matter is Monte Carlo analysis, a subject that has been evolving since the very advent of nuclear reactors and particle accelerators in experimental physics. Countermeasures for radiation protection from neutrons near nuclear reactors, for example, were an early application and Monte Carlo methods were quickly adapted to this general field of investigation. The project discussed here is concerned with taking the latest tools and technology in Monte Carlo analysis and adapting them to space applications such as radiation shielding design for spacecraft, as well as investigating how next-generation Monte Carlos can complement the existing analytical methods currently used by NASA. We have chosen to employ the Monte Carlo program known as FLUKA (A legacy acronym based on the German for FLUctuating KAscade) used to simulate all of the particle transport, and the CERN developed graphical-interface object-oriented analysis software called ROOT. One aspect of space radiation analysis for which the Monte Carlo s are particularly suited is the study of secondary radiation produced as albedoes in the vicinity of the structural geometry involved. This broad goal of simulating space radiation transport through the relevant materials employing the FLUKA code necessarily requires the addition of the capability to simulate all heavy-ion interactions from 10 MeV/A up to the highest conceivable energies. For all energies above 3 GeV/A the Dual Parton Model (DPM) is currently used, although the possible improvement of the DPMJET event generator for energies 3-30 GeV/A is being considered. One of the major tasks still facing us is the provision for heavy ion interactions below 3 GeV/A. The ROOT interface is being developed in conjunction with the CERN ALICE (A Large Ion Collisions Experiment) software team through an adaptation of their existing AliROOT (ALICE Using ROOT) architecture. In order to check our progress against actual data, we have chosen to simulate the ATIC14 (Advanced Thin Ionization Calorimeter) cosmic-ray astrophysics balloon payload as well as neutron fluences in the Mir spacecraft. This paper contains a summary of status of this project, and a roadmap to its successful completion.
The methodologies and development of the loads experienced during liftoff of the NASA SLS Block I vehicle will be presented in this paper. The liftoff loads analysis traditionally captures the dynamics of vehicle/pad separation after engine/booster ignition coupled with other launch day environments like wind, overpressure, and engine side loads. Additionally, the liftoff analysis includes an on-pad engine shutdown prior to booster ignition. The SLS liftoff analysis is performed using a Monte Carlo analysis and this paper will explore the Monte Carlo process and the statistical approach to calculating the limit loads.
The radiation interface in spacecrafts using radioisotope thermoelectric generators is studied. A Monte Carlo analysis of the radiation field that includes scattered radiation effects, produced neutron and gamma photon isoflux contours as functions of distance from the RTG center line. It is shown that the photon flux is significantly depressed in the RTG axial direction because of selfshielding. Total flux values are determined by converting the uncollided flux values into an equivalent RTG surface source and then performing a Monte Carlo analysis for each specific dose point. Energy distributions of the particle spectra completely define the radiation interface for a spacecraft model.
X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect data can be combined to determine the distance to galaxy clusters. High-resolution X-ray data are now available from Chandra, which provides both spatial and spectral information, and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect data were obtained from the BIMA and Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) arrays. We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure for the joint analysis of X-ray and Sunyaev- Zel'dovich effect data. The advantages of this method are the high computational efficiency and the ability to measure simultaneously the probability distribution of all parameters of interest, such as the spatial and spectral properties of the cluster gas and also for derivative quantities such as the distance to the cluster. We demonstrate this technique by applying it to the Chandra X-ray data and the OVRO radio data for the galaxy cluster A611. Comparisons with traditional likelihood ratio methods reveal the robustness of the method. This method will be used in follow-up paper to determine the distances to a large sample of galaxy cluster.