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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Direct uranium enrichment assay in gaseous uranium hexafluoride with laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

A set of eleven U atomic emission lines, between 421.099 and 421.460 nm, were characterized for direct enrichment assay of gaseous UF 6 samples with laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). Several iterative, multivariate nonlinear spectral-fitting algorithms were evaluated for their efficacies to extract the enrichment information from the measured LIBS spectra. Furthermore, wavelength-dependent weight factors, which take into consideration of the spectral-line position in the fitting model, the determined isotopic ratio, and the isotopic shift of the emission line, are essential for the spectral-fitting model to function adequately. The analytical accuracies and precision were typically within 0.5% in absolute [ 235 U/( 235 U + 238 U)] ratios.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Studies on the Fundamental Mechanisms of Niobium Electropolishing

To improve the superconducting performance of niobium SRF cavities, electropolishing (EP) with a sulfuric and hydroflouric acid mixture is used. The chemistry of this reaction is complex due to the interactions between diffusion mechanisms, surface oxide structure, and multiple chemical species. Past studies on the EP process have produced a certain set of optimum parameters that have been used successfully for a long time. However, two recent developments have called the efficacy of the existing EP process into question. Since the introduction of nitrogen doping the surface quality of some cavities has been very poor. Also, EP performed at colder than standard temperatures leads to an increase in the cavity performance. To understand these questions, we perform a multivariate study on the EP process using niobium test samples electropolished at different temperatures and potentials. We find that electropolishing at lower potentials leads to rough surface features such as pitting and grain etching. Some of the surface features show similarities to features seen in niobium cavities. The effect of electropolishing temperature is not clear based on the results of this study.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mass Spectral Imaging to Map Plant–Microbe Interactions

Plant–microbe interactions are of rising interest in plant sustainability, biomass production, plant biology, and systems biology. These interactions have been a challenge to detect until recent advancements in mass spectrometry imaging. Plants and microbes interact in four main regions within the plant, the rhizosphere, endosphere, phyllosphere, and spermosphere. This mini review covers the challenges within investigations of plant and microbe interactions. We highlight the importance of sample preparation and comparisons among time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectroscopy (ToF-SIMS), matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI), laser desorption ionization (LDI/LDPI), and desorption electrospray ionization (DESI) techniques used for the analysis of these interactions. Using mass spectral imaging (MSI) to study plants and microbes offers advantages in understanding microbe and host interactions at the molecular level with single-cell and community communication information. More research utilizing MSI has emerged in the past several years. We first introduce the principles of major MSI techniques that have been employed in the research of microorganisms. An overview of proper sample preparation methods is offered as a prerequisite for successful MSI analysis. Traditionally, dried or cryogenically prepared, frozen samples have been used; however, they do not provide a true representation of the bacterial biofilms compared to living cell analysis and chemical imaging. New developments such as microfluidic devices that can be used under a vacuum are highly desirable for the application of MSI techniques, such as ToF-SIMS, because they have a subcellular spatial resolution to map and image plant and microbe interactions, including the potential to elucidate metabolic pathways and cell-to-cell interactions. Promising results due to recent MSI advancements in the past five years are selected and highlighted. The latest developments utilizing machine learning are captured as an important outlook for maximal output using MSI to study microorganisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metabolome patterns identify active dechlorination in bioaugmentation consortium SDC-9™

Ultra-high performance liquid chromatography–high-resolution mass spectrometry (UPHLC–HRMS) is used to discover and monitor single or sets of biomarkers informing about metabolic processes of interest. The technique can detect 1000’s of molecules (i.e., metabolites) in a single instrument run and provide a measurement of the global metabolome, which could be a fingerprint of activity. Despite the power of this approach, technical challenges have hindered the effective use of metabolomics to interrogate microbial communities implicated in the removal of priority contaminants. Herein, our efforts to circumvent these challenges and apply this emerging systems biology technique to microbiomes relevant for contaminant biodegradation will be discussed. Chlorinated ethenes impact many contaminated sites, and detoxification can be achieved by organohalide-respiring bacteria, a process currently assessed by quantitative gene-centric tools (e.g., quantitative PCR). This laboratory study monitored the metabolome of the SDC-9™ bioaugmentation consortium during cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE) conversion to vinyl chloride (VC) and nontoxic ethene. Untargeted metabolomics using an UHPLC-Orbitrap mass spectrometer and performed on SDC-9™ cultures at different stages of the reductive dechlorination process detected ~10,000 spectral features per sample arising from water-soluble molecules with both known and unknown structures. Multivariate statistical techniques including partial least squares-discriminate analysis (PLSDA) identified patterns of measurable spectral features (peak patterns) that correlated with dechlorination (in)activity, and ANOVA analyses identified 18 potential biomarkers for this process. Statistical clustering of samples with these 18 features identified dechlorination activity more reliably than clustering of samples based only on chlorinated ethene concentration and Dhc 16S rRNA gene abundance data, highlighting the potential value of metabolomic workflows as an innovative site assessment and bioremediation monitoring tool.

environmental monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laser Ablation Plasmas and Spectroscopy for Nuclear Applications

The development of measurement methodologies to detect and monitor nuclear-relevant materials remains a consistent and significant interest across the nuclear energy, nonproliferation, safeguards, and forensics communities. Optical spectroscopy of laser-produced plasmas is becoming an increasingly popular diagnostic technique to measure radiological and nuclear materials in the field without sample preparation, where current capabilities encompass the standoff, isotopically resolved and phase-identifiable (e.g., UO and UO[Formula: see text]) detection of elements across the periodic table. These methods rely on the process of laser ablation (LA), where a high-powered pulsed laser is used to excite a sample (solid, liquid, or gas) into a luminous microplasma that rapidly undergoes de-excitation through the emission of electromagnetic radiation, which serves as a spectroscopic fingerprint for that sample. This review focuses on LA plasmas and spectroscopy for nuclear applications, covering topics from the wide-area environmental sampling and atmospheric sensing of radionuclides to recent implementations of multivariate machine learning methods that work to enable the real-time analysis of spectrochemical measurements with an emphasis on fundamental research and development activities over the past two decades. Background on the physical breakdown mechanisms and interactions of matter with nanosecond and ultrafast laser pulses that lead to the generation of laser-produced microplasmas is provided, followed by a description of the transient spatiotemporal plasma conditions that control the behavior of spectroscopic signatures recorded by analytical methods in atomic and molecular spectroscopy. High-temperature chemical and thermodynamic processes governing reactive LA plasmas are also examined alongside investigations into the condensation pathways of the plasma, which are believed to serve as chemical surrogates for fallout particles formed in nuclear fireballs. Laser-supported absorption waves and laser-induced shockwaves that accompany LA plasmas are also discussed, which could provide insights into atmospheric ionization phenomena from strong shocks following nuclear detonations. Furthermore, the standoff detection of trace radioactive aerosols and fission gases is reviewed in the context of monitoring atmospheric radiation plumes and off-gas streams of molten salt reactors. Finally, concluding remarks will present future outlooks on the role of LA plasma spectroscopy in the nuclear community.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multidimensional scaling informed by F -statistic: Visualizing grouped microbiome data with inference

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is a widely used dimensionality reduction technique in microbial ecology data analysis that captures the multivariate structure of the data while preserving pairwise distances between samples. While improvements in MDS have enhanced the ability to reveal group-specific data patterns, these MDS-based methods require prior assumptions for inference, limiting their application in general microbiome analysis. Here, in this study, we introduce a new MDS-based ordination method, “F-informed MDS,” which configures the data distribution based on the F-statistic, the ratio of dispersion between groups sharing common and different characteristics. Using semisynthetic datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed method is robust to hyperparameter selection while maintaining statistical significance throughout the ordination process. Various quality metrics for evaluating dimensionality reduction confirm that F-informed MDS is comparable to state-of-the-art methods in preserving both local and global data structures. Its application to a diatom-associated bacterial community suggests the role of this new method in interpreting the community’s response to the host. Our approach offers a well-founded refinement of MDS that aligns with statistical test results, which can be beneficial for broader multidimensional data analyses in microbiology and ecology. This new visualization tool can be incorporated into standard microbiome data analyses.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk Ratio and Risk Difference Estimation in Case-cohort Studies

Background: In case-cohort studies with binary outcomes, ordinary logistic regression analyses have been widely used because of their computational simplicity. However, the resultant odds ratio estimates cannot be interpreted as relative risk measures unless the event rate is low. The risk ratio and risk difference are more favorable outcome measures that are directly interpreted as effect measures without the rare disease assumption. Methods: We provide pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods for estimating risk ratios and risk differences in analyses of case-cohort studies. These multivariate regression models are fitted by weighting the inverses of sampling probabilities. Also, the precisions of the risk ratio and risk difference estimators can be improved using auxiliary variable information, specifically by adapting the calibrated or estimated weights, which are readily measured on all samples from the whole cohort. Finally, we provide computational code in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) that can easily perform these methods. Results: Through numerical analyses of artificially simulated data and the National Wilms Tumor Study data, accurate risk ratio and risk difference estimates were obtained using the pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods. Also, using the auxiliary variable information from the whole cohort, precisions of these estimators were markedly improved. Conclusion: The ordinary logistic regression analyses may provide uninterpretable effect measure estimates, and the risk ratio and risk difference estimation methods are effective alternative approaches for case-cohort studies. These methods are especially recommended under situations in which the event rate is not low.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonparametric Multiparticle Set Methods for Interpreting Environmental Samples

Collection and analysis of environmental samples is commonly used by a range of stakeholders in nuclear safeguards and security contexts. While the ubiquity of samples and their transport in the environment allow regular collection, developing and demonstrating methods for analyzing these samples is difficult. In this work, an environmental sample consists of a set of one or more individual particles. Recent advances in reactor simulation have allowed us to generate data that are more representative of real-world environmental samples, enabling statistically defensible method development and testing. The most notable of these advances is a drastic increase in the number of material depletion regions, which allows our simulations to capture the variation in isotopic composition seen at length scales consistent with environmental samples. Traditional approaches for handling multiparticle samples treat each particle in the sample individually, estimating the quantity of interest (e.g., core-average burnup) resulting from measurement and analysis of signatures (e.g., nuclide assays) from each individual particle. Individual estimates are then averaged to generate a single estimate of the quantity of interest over the entire sample. In this presentation, we introduce two novel approaches for interpreting environmental samples that comprise of multiple particles: (1) the Quantile-Quantile Comparator, which uses a multivariate generalization of quantile-quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, and (2) the Set Transformer, an attention-based neural network module designed to model interactions among elements (particles) in the input set (sample). Statistically representative sampling cannot be guaranteed as samples are passively collected and are beholden to what particles are available in the environment. These new analysis methods for set-input problems are expected to be more robust than traditional approaches to issues of sampling bias where particles are not uniformly distributed throughout regions of interest, as well as generally outperform traditional approaches by jointly considering all elements in the set. We will present results comparing the performance of traditional single particle approaches and the novel Quantile-Quantile Comparator and Set Transformer for interpretation of simulated environmental samples.

Phathanapirom, Birdy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping wall-to-wall fractional cover of Arctic tundra plant functional types in Alaska using 20-m spatial resolution satellite imagery and harmonized plot observations

Estimates of fractional cover (fCover) across given land surfaces are used to assess, and often model, vegetation composition and diversity, which are crucial for understanding the health and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing provides a useful means for scaling local, plot-measured fCover estimates to regional scales. Leveraging a recently synthesized and harmonized plot database, this study generated wall-to-wall maps of fCover for six Alaskan-Arctic plant functional types (PFT), including non-vascular plants, forbs, graminoids, and deciduous and evergreen shrubs, using 20-m satellite data (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ArcticDEM) using a machine learning regression approach, specifically the random forest (RF) algorithm, which is well-suited for handling nonlinear relationships and high-dimensional satellite datasets. This study additionally addressed the spatio-temporal inconsistencies e.g., sampling scale, plot size, and collection year in plot measured fCover by adopting a multivariate outlier detection approach—Cook’s distance—to identify high-quality plots for model training and validation. Our approach achieves high accuracy (R 2 = 0.59–0.93, root mean squared errors = 0.02–0.10 for all PFTs) between plot-observed and satellite-derived fCover when using high-quality plot samples. The mapped fCover characterizes the spatial patterns of different PFTs across the tundra biome at a 20-m resolution, providing key information needed for improved representation of Arctic tundra vegetation in terrestrial biosphere models to better understand climate-vegetation feedback across the Arctic tundra.

Arctic tundra↗
DOE OSTI2019

Search for the production of four top quarks in the single-lepton and opposite-sign dilepton final states in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for the standard model production of four top quarks (pp$\to\mathrm{t\overline{t}t\overline{t}}$) is reported using single-lepton plus jets and opposite-sign dilepton plus jets signatures. Proton-proton collisions are recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in a sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.8 fb$^{-1}$. A multivariate analysis exploiting global event and jet properties is used to discriminate $\mathrm{t\overline{t}t\overline{t}}$ from $\mathrm{t\overline{t}}$ production. No significant deviation is observed from the predicted background. An upper limit is set on the cross section for $\mathrm{t\overline{t}t\overline{t}}$ production in the standard model of 48 fb at 95% confidence level. When combined with a previous measurement by the CMS experiment from an analysis of other final states, the observed signal significance is 1.4 standard deviations, and the combined cross section measurement is 13$^{+11}_{-9}$ fb. The result is also interpreted in the framework of effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measuring Nd(III) Solution Concentration in the Presence of Interfering Er(III) and Cu(II) Ions: A Partial Least Squares Analysis of Ultraviolet–Visible Spectra

Optical spectroscopy is a powerful characterization tool with applications ranging from fundamental studies to real-time process monitoring. However, it can be difficult to apply to complex samples that contain interfering analytes which are common in processing streams. Multivariate (chemometric) analysis has been examined for providing selectivity and accuracy to the analysis of optical spectra and expanding its potential applications. Here we will discuss chemometric modeling with an in-depth comparison to more simplistic analysis approaches and outline how chemometric modeling works while exploring the limits on modeling accuracy. Understanding the limitations of the chemometric model can provide better analytical assessment regarding the accuracy and precision of the analytical result. This will be explored in the context of UV–Vis absorbance of neodymium (Nd 3+ ) in the presence of interferents, erbium (Er 3+ ) and copper (Cu 2+ ) under conditions simulating the liquid–liquid extraction approach used to recycle plutonium (Pu) and uranium (U) in used nuclear fuel worldwide. Finally, the selected chemometric model, partial least squares regression, accurately quantifies Nd 3+ with a low percentage error in the presence of interfering analytes and even under conditions that the training set does not describe.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Spectroscopic Techniques for Determining the Peroxide Value of 19 Classes of Naturally Aged, Plant-Based Edible Oils

The peroxide value of edible oils is a measure of the degree of oxidation, which directly relates to the freshness of the oil sample. Several studies previously reported in the literature have paired various spectroscopic techniques with multivariate analyses to rapidly determine peroxide values using field portable and process instrumentation; those efforts presented “best-case scenarios” with oils from narrowly defined training and test sets. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the use of near- and mid-infrared absorption and Raman scattering spectroscopies on oil samples from different oil classes, including seasonal and vendor variations, to determine which measurement technique or combination thereof is best for predicting peroxide values. Following peroxide value assays of each oil class using an established titration-based method, global and global-subset calibration models were constructed from spectroscopic data collected on the 19 oil classes used in this study. Spectra from each optical technique were used to create partial least squares regression calibration models to predict the peroxide value of unknown oil samples. A global peroxide value model based on near-infrared (8 mm optical path length) oil measurements produced the lowest RMSEP (4.9), followed by 24 mm optical path length near infrared (5.1), Raman (6.9) and 50 µm optical path length mid-infrared (7.3). However, it was determined that the Raman RMSEP resulted from chance correlations. Global peroxide value models based on low-level fusion of the NIR (8 and 24 mm optical path length) data and all infrared data produced the same RMSEP of 5.1. Global subset models, based on any of the spectroscopies and olive oil training sets from any class (pure, extra light, extra virgin), all failed to extrapolate to the non-olive oils. However, the near-infrared global subset model built on extra virgin olive oil could extrapolate to test samples from other olive oil classes. This work demonstrates the difficulty of developing a truly global method for determining peroxide value of oils.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous quantification of uranium( VI ), samarium, nitric acid, and temperature with combined ensemble learning, laser fluorescence, and Raman scattering for real-time monitoring

In this work, laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS), Raman spectroscopy, and a stacked regression ensemble was developed for near real-time quantification of uranium(VI) (1–100 μg mL –1 ), samarium (0–200 μg mL –1 ) and nitric acid (0.1–4 M) with varying temperature (20 °C–45 °C). LIFS applications range from fundamental lab-scale studies to real-time process monitoring at industrial levels, such as nuclear reprocessing applications, provided the phenomena affecting the fluorescence spectrum are accounted for (e.g., absorption, quenching, complexation). Multiple chemometric models were examined and compared to a more traditional multivariate regression approach called partial least squares (PLS). Results obtained on synthetic samples selected using D-optimal experimental design indicated that a stacked regression method, which included ridge regression, random forest, PLS, and an eXtreme gradient boost algorithm, successfully measured uranium(VI) concentrations directly in nitric acid without measuring luminescence lifetimes or standard addition. The top model resulted in percent root-mean-square error of prediction values of 5.2, 1.9, 3.0, and 2.3% for U(VI), Sm 3+ , HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. The approach may be useful for quantifying fluorescent fission products (e.g., Sm 3+ ) to provide information on burnup of irradiated nuclear fuel. This novel framework reinforces the applicability of LIFS for real-time applications in nuclear fuel cycle applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time elemental analysis of liquids for process monitoring using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy with a liquid wheel sampling approach

This article presents an engineered sampling system that used a rotating wheel to form a thin liquid layer, permitting the use of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for in situ, real-time elemental impurity quantification during liquid processing. The sampling approach was demonstrated on eight elements from across the periodic table (Na, Al, K, Ca, Ti, Sr, Mo, and Yb). Univariate and multivariate calibrations were presented for each element. The average value for percent root mean square errors of cross-validation for the multivariate models was 3.64%, highlighting the method's strong prediction accuracy. Additionally, the limits of detection for each analyte were estimated from their univariate models: Na = 0.0532, Al = 18.5, K = 0.105, Ca = 0.273, Ti = 67.7, Sr = 0.640, Mo = 22.4, and Yb = 22.9 μg mL –1 . Finally, a test in which multivariate models were used to monitor a liquid system for 80 min was performed to investigate the real-time monitoring capabilities of this liquid LIBS sampling approach. Rigorous measurements were performed to effectively predict the absence and concentrations of multiple analytes as they were spiked and diluted. This demonstration showed the feasibility of using LIBS for real-time liquid quantification models with estimated precision ≤ 8.1%. Finally, the limitations of this approach and potential future improvements are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Convergence Rates for Empirical Estimation of Binary Classification Bounds

Bounding the best achievable error probability for binary classification problems is relevant to many applications including machine learning, signal processing, and information theory. Many bounds on the Bayes binary classification error rate depend on information divergences between the pair of class distributions. Recently, the Henze–Penrose (HP) divergence has been proposed for bounding classification error probability. We consider the problem of empirically estimating the HP-divergence from random samples. We derive a bound on the convergence rate for the Friedman–Rafsky (FR) estimator of the HP-divergence, which is related to a multivariate runs statistic for testing between two distributions. The FR estimator is derived from a multicolored Euclidean minimal spanning tree (MST) that spans the merged samples. We obtain a concentration inequality for the Friedman–Rafsky estimator of the Henze–Penrose divergence. We validate our results experimentally and illustrate their application to real datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quasar Identification Using Multivariate Probability Density Estimated from Nonparametric Conditional Probabilities

Nonparametric estimation for a probability density function that describes multivariate data has typically been addressed by kernel density estimation (KDE). A novel density estimator recently developed by Farmer and Jacobs offers an alternative high-throughput automated approach to univariate nonparametric density estimation based on maximum entropy and order statistics, improving accuracy over univariate KDE. This article presents an extension of the single variable case to multiple variables. The univariate estimator is used to recursively calculate a product array of one-dimensional conditional probabilities. In combination with interpolation methods, a complete joint probability density estimate is generated for multiple variables. Good accuracy and speed performance in synthetic data are demonstrated by a numerical study using known distributions over a range of sample sizes from 100 to 10 6 for two to six variables. Performance in terms of speed and accuracy is compared to KDE. The multivariate density estimate developed here tends to perform better as the number of samples and/or variables increases. As an example application, measurements are analyzed over five filters of photometric data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 17. The multivariate estimation is used to form the basis for a binary classifier that distinguishes quasars from galaxies and stars with up to 94% accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗