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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2018

Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

Li, Zhao↗
NASA NTRS2018

Southeast Greenland Winter Precipitation Strongly Linked to the Icelandic Low Position

Greenland's largest precipitation flux occurs in its southeast (SE) region during the winter, controlled primarily by easterly winds and frequent cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic. Several studies have attempted to link SE Greenland precipitation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but results are inconsistent. This work uses reanalysis, automatic weather station data, and regional climate model output to show that the east-west position of the Icelandic low is a better predictor of SE Greenland precipitation (average correlation of r equals -0.48 in DJF (December January February)) than climate indices such as the NAO (r equals -0.06 in DJF). In years when the Icelandic low is positioned extremely west, moisture transport increases up to approximately 40 percent (or up to 40 kilograms per meter per second) off the SE Greenland coast compared to when the low is in an extreme east position. Furthermore, in years when the Icelandic low is positioned extremely west, storm track density and intensity increase just off the SE coast of Greenland. Thus, the Icelandic low's longitudinal position dominates SE Greenland ice sheet's wintertime precipitation, a positive term in the ice sheet mass balance. Given SE Greenland's importance in the overall ice sheet mass balance, the position of the Icelandic low is therefore important for making projections of future sea level.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Local Forcings in Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced substantial climactic change, including significant decreases in both sea ice extent and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance. These trends are overlain by substantial interannual variability in atmospheric circulation driven by large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the removal of Arctic sea ice can alter local atmospheric circulation through increased air temperature, clouds, and water vapor, which may contribute to increased surface melting on the GrIS. Here, we seek to characterize how these processes are linked to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss and constrain how the representation of these forcings can impact the prediction of meltwater runoff within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system (S2S v2.1). To do this, we use a combination of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, retrospective seasonal forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1, and independent GEOS simulations. Results from MERRA-2 reanalysis indicate that the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results in warm surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation across Greenland, both of which act to enhance summer ice surface mass losses. When compared with MERRA-2, retrospective forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1 system effectively reproduce the pattern of summer GrIS surface mass loss and demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting the magnitude of meltwater runoff at leads of 1 to 3 months. However, during periods with a strong negative NAO, ice sheet surface mass balance is substantially underestimated. This pattern is also associated with an underprediction of the Greenland Blocking Index height and over prediction of sea ice extent, suggesting that both local and non-local forcings may play a role in the reduced prediction skill during these periods. Using both retrospective forecasts and independent simulations, we characterize the relative importance of local and non-local mechanisms in driving summer GrIS

Andrews, Lauren C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96°C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42°C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

Lim, Young-Kwon↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2020

The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold‐season air temperature variability over the last century

Substantial marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric changes have occurred over the Greenland region during the last century. Several studies have documented record‐levels of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) summer melt extent during the 2000s and 2010s, but relatively little work has been carried out to assess regional climatic changes in other seasons. Here, we focus on the less studied cold‐season (i.e., autumn and winter) climate, tracing the long‐term (1873–2013) variability of Greenland's air temperatures through analyses of coastal observations and model‐derived outlet glacier series and their linkages with North Atlantic sea ice, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric circulation indices. Through a statistical framework, large amounts of west and south Greenland temperature variance (up to r^2~50%) can be explained by the seasonally‐contemporaneous combination of the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; hereafter the combination of GBI and NAO is termed GBI). Lagged and concomitant regional sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seasonal indices account for small amounts of residual air temperature variance (r^2<~10%) relative to the GBI. The correlations between GBI and cold‐season temperatures are predominantly positive and statistically‐significant through time, while regional SIC conditions emerge as a significant covariate from the mid‐20th century through the conclusion of the study period. The inclusion of the cold‐season Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in multivariate analyses bolsters the air temperature variance explained by the North Atlantic regional predictors, suggesting the remote, background climate state is important to long‐term Greenland temperature variability. These findings imply that large‐scale tropospheric circulation has a strong control on surface temperature over Greenland through dynamic and thermodynamic impacts and stress the importance of understanding the evolving two‐way linkages between the North Atlantic marine and atmospheric environment in order to more accurately predict Greenland seasonal climate variability and change through the 21st century.

air temperatures↗
NASA NTRS2023

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

OBM↗
NASA NTRS2014

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

Teleconnection↗
NASA NTRS1979

A meteor ablation-cluster ion atmospheric sodium theory

Neutral and ionic forms of sodium form narrow, well-defined layers which peak in the 90-95 km altitude region at midlatitudes. A new theory for the sodium layer is presented, which is found to be in good agreement with existing atmospheric observations as well as available laboratory measurements of rate constants. The layer is believed to result naturally from a meteor ablation source over a chemical sink with vertical transport of Na(+) playing an important role in the layer shape and variation. While the neutral chemistry is believed to consist of chemical equilibrium between Na and NaO, the ion chemistry departs from earlier studies and considers a cluster ion scheme. It is possible that higher-order cluster ions of sodium play a role in the formation of aerosols, through attachment or ion-induced nucleation processes.

Richter, E. S.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The detailed chemistry and thermodynamics of sodium in oxygen-rich flames

Measurement of sodium and OH concentrations in ten oxygen-rich H2/O2/N2 flames by respective saturated and low-power laser induced fluorescence techniques have permitted a detailed examination of the pronounced flame chemistry of sodium in such oxygen rich media. Previous interpretations have been shown to be largely incomplete or in error. The flame downstream profiles indicate that the amount of free sodium tracks the decay of H-atom and as the flame radicals decay sodium becomes increasingly bound in a molecular form. A detailed kinetic model indicates that the sodium is distributed between NaOH and NaO2 species. Concentrations of NaO are very small and NaH negligible. The actual distribution is controlled by the state of equilibrium of the flames' basic free radicals. Na, NaO2 and NaOH are all coupled to one another by fast reactions which can rapidly interconvert one to another as flame conditions vary. Above about 2000K, NaOH becomes dominant whereas NaO2 plays an increasingly important contribution at lower temperatures.

Hynes, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The chemical kinetics and thermodynamics of sodium species in oxygen-rich hydrogen flames

Results are presented which, it is claimed, lead to a correction of previous misconceptions over the relative importance and kinetics of NaO2. It is shown that its rapid conversion to NaO and NaOH is such that it can severely perturb the NaOH/Na ratio and produce significant concentration overshoots over that predicted from the balance of the reaction of Na with H2O. This becomes increasingly the case in flames of large O2 concentrations and temperatures below 2500 K; and the corresponding large rate constants for the termolecular formation of the other alkali peroxides imply that similar considerations will be necessary for them. Depending on the rate constants for the exothermic conversions of MO2 to MO or MOH, the steady-state concentrations of MO2 could be more or less significant than for sodium. Owing to numerous reactions that produce these conversions, the MOH species will probably be the dominant species in all cases in oxygen-rich hydrogen or hydrocarbon flames, with MO concentrations at not greater than 1 percent of the bound metal.

Hynes, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Theoretical study of the diatomic alkali and alkaline-earth oxides

Theoretical dissociation energies for the ground states of the alkali and alkaline earth oxides are presented that are believed to be accurate to 0.1 eV. The 2 Pi - 2 Sigma + separations for the alkali oxides are found to be more sensitive to basis set than to electron correlation. Predicted 2 Pi ground states for LiO and NaO and 2 Sigma + ground states for RbO and CsO are found to be in agreement with previous theoretical and experimental work. For KO, a 2 Sigma + state is found at both the numerical Hartree-Fock (NHF) level and at the singles plus doubles configuration interaction level using a Slater basis set that is within 0.02 eV of the NHF limit. It is found that an accurate balanced treatment of the two states requires correlating the electrons on both the metal and oxide ion.

Langhoff, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Huffman, George J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Huffman, George J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Meteorological Characterization of Global Dust Sources

The global distribution of absorbing aerosols index (AI) derived from Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) measurements has been used to identify the major sources of atmospheric dust particles [Prospero, et al., 2000]. In this presentation, we will show that the TOMS aerosol index can also be used to the meteorological characterization of the source areas. We found a huge "dust belt" with a strong correlation between the TOMS index and the sea-level pressure wrapping all the major dust sources. To handle the difficulty of using quantitatively the TOMS Al and its strong dependency on the aerosol layer altitude, the Al has been correlated to the planetary boundary layer depth (PBL) and the surface wind speed. The strongest correlation is obtained with the product of these two variables and at the precise location of the dust sources identified by Prospero et al. The relation between the TOMS Al and the product of the PBL height and the surface wind speed has been used to study the interannual variability of the North-Africa dust sources in relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Finally, we will show that even on a short time base the variability of the TOMS Al can be related to the surface wind speed and PBL height.

Ginoux, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2001

Non-seasonal Gravitational Effects of Interannual Meteorological Oscillations in Atmosphere and Ocean

Via mass transport, the interannual meteorological oscillations (ENSO, NAO, etc.) produce slight variations in the global gravitational field, which can be observed by satellite laser ranging (SLR) and anticipated space missions such as GRACE. The meteorological oscillation modes are identified using empirical orthogonal function and principal component decomposition using de-seasoned surface fields produced from the 40-years of NCEP reanalysis. This decompositional analysis requires an accounting for issues associated with area-weighting and non-zero mean. The atmospheric contributions to gravitational variation, mode by mode and in combinations, are then computed via regional integration. To address the corresponding oceanic contributions, we examine the output of the numerical POCM ocean circulation model (1992-1998) in two ways: ocean bottom pressure field and ocean surface topography minus steric effect. The resulting lowest-degree Stokes coefficients for both NCEP reanalysis and POCM are then compared with space geodetic SLR observations, to identify the importance of each meteorological oscillations in gravitational variation signals.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗